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tonight.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782#t=19.172,23.22"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782/transcript/28983/annotation/3","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"As a matter of fact, I'll introduce two old friends.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782#t=23.22,26.497"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782/transcript/28983/annotation/4","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"I'd like to introduce Maryann Ash 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bushel","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782#t=2389.28,2391.62"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782/transcript/28983/annotation/731","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"and corn and wheat at $5 a bushel for a dozen years,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782#t=2391.62,2395.41"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782/transcript/28983/annotation/732","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"I suppose all of that 265 million 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conditions","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782#t=2621.3,2625.77"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782/transcript/28983/annotation/807","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"are barriers to allocations based on the marginal value","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782#t=2625.77,2630.55"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782/transcript/28983/annotation/808","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"productivity of water in all countries.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782#t=2630.55,2632.95"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782/transcript/28983/annotation/809","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"That is true even in the United States.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782#t=2632.95,2634.61"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782/transcript/28983/annotation/810","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"If we were able to allocate 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rites.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782#t=2640.95,2644.273"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782/transcript/28983/annotation/813","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"The restraints on world food production","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782#t=2646.51,2648.58"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782/transcript/28983/annotation/814","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"I have been discussing are not insurmountable.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782#t=2648.58,2651.46"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782/transcript/28983/annotation/815","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"Prospects for the future are positive,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782#t=2651.46,2654.6"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782/transcript/28983/annotation/816","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"and at least in the intermediate future,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782#t=2654.6,2656.92"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782/transcript/28983/annotation/817","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"restraints of social and economic policies","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782#t=2656.92,2660.18"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782/transcript/28983/annotation/818","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"are more important than physical restraints.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782#t=2660.18,2663.24"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782/transcript/28983/annotation/819","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"To attain the possibilities that prevail for the future","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782#t=2663.24,2666.304"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782/transcript/28983/annotation/820","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"will require political stability","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782#t=2666.304,2669.09"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782/transcript/28983/annotation/821","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"and wise economic and social policies","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782#t=2669.09,2671.839"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782/transcript/28983/annotation/822","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"of the type implied previously.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782#t=2671.839,2674.81"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782/transcript/28983/annotation/823","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"These policies, equally, must provide economic incentives","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782#t=2674.81,2679.11"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782/transcript/28983/annotation/824","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"for exploiting the physical possibilities that exist,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782#t=2679.11,2683.19"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782/transcript/28983/annotation/825","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"and for checking population growth","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782#t=2683.19,2685.41"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782/transcript/28983/annotation/826","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"in the manner that is now becoming apparent.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782#t=2685.41,2689.69"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782/transcript/28983/annotation/827","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"So, in summary, my outlook is positive","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782#t=2689.69,2693.31"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782/transcript/28983/annotation/828","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"on the physical possibilities of food production,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782#t=2693.31,2696.95"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782/transcript/28983/annotation/829","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"more pessimistic in terms of social and economic policies","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782#t=2696.95,2701.37"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782/transcript/28983/annotation/830","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"that allow us to utilize","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782#t=2701.37,2703.16"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782/transcript/28983/annotation/831","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"the total physical capacity that exists.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782#t=2703.16,2706.83"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782/transcript/28983/annotation/832","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"We have a world food institute on the campus.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782#t=2706.83,2709.03"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782/transcript/28983/annotation/833","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"Maybe it should concentrate on the social","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782#t=2709.03,2711.16"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782/transcript/28983/annotation/834","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"and economic policies which restrain physical utilization","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782#t=2711.16,2714.99"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782/transcript/28983/annotation/835","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"of our facilities that exist,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782#t=2719.111,2721.46"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782/transcript/28983/annotation/836","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"or maybe I'm more concerned about population growth","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782#t=2721.46,2724.48"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782/transcript/28983/annotation/837","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"than I am about our ability to produce food.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782#t=2724.48,2726.55"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782/transcript/28983/annotation/838","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"Maybe on the campus we should equally have","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782#t=2726.55,2729.46"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782/transcript/28983/annotation/839","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"a population control institute.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782#t=2731.23,2733.89"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782/transcript/28983/annotation/840","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"So, this is my summary, and now I guess","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782#t=2733.89,2735.91"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782/transcript/28983/annotation/841","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"I'm ready for questions from all the authorities","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782#t=2735.91,2738.77"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782/transcript/28983/annotation/842","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"who know more about this than do I.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782#t=2738.77,2740.425"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782/transcript/28983/annotation/843","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"(laughing)","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782#t=2740.425,2741.749"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782/transcript/28983/annotation/844","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"(applause)","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782#t=2741.749,2743.999"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782/transcript/28983/annotation/845","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"\u003cstrong\u003e -:\u003c/strong\u003e Thank you very much, Earl.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782#t=2750.15,2752.153"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782/transcript/28983/annotation/846","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"This is (mumbling) so we will limit the discussion","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782#t=2752.153,2755.893"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782/transcript/28983/annotation/847","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"to about 15 minutes, and then you can visit with Earl.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782#t=2755.893,2760.7"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782/transcript/28983/annotation/848","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"(mumbling)","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782#t=2760.7,2762.95"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782/transcript/28983/annotation/849","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"In the lobby.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782#t=2765.23,2766.063"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782/transcript/28983/annotation/850","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"So, are there any questions or discussions?","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782#t=2766.063,2769.653"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782/transcript/28983/annotation/851","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"\u003cstrong\u003e -:\u003c/strong\u003e Here's one from Norman.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782#t=2771.368,2772.998"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782/transcript/28983/annotation/852","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"\u003cstrong\u003e -:\u003c/strong\u003e You said we have perhaps 40 years of grace.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782#t=2772.998,2776.3"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782/transcript/28983/annotation/853","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"What is your predicted world population 40 years from now,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782#t=2776.3,2781.1"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782/transcript/28983/annotation/854","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"and are you suggesting that they would be fed","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782#t=2781.1,2783.91"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782/transcript/28983/annotation/855","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"approximately the quantity and quality","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782#t=2783.91,2785.92"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782/transcript/28983/annotation/856","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"that the people are receiving now?","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782#t=2786.95,2789.52"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782/transcript/28983/annotation/857","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"And thirdly, do you expect the plateauing","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782#t=2789.52,2792.63"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782/transcript/28983/annotation/858","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"of population to occur?","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782#t=2792.63,2794.1"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782/transcript/28983/annotation/859","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"Is this what you're predicting at that time, 40 years?","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782#t=2794.1,2797.073"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782/transcript/28983/annotation/860","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"\u003cstrong\u003e -:\u003c/strong\u003e (mumbling) world food production and population.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782#t=2799.197,2803.563"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782/transcript/28983/annotation/861","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"One was we have about three levels of population 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balances","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782#t=2836.63,2840.06"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782/transcript/28983/annotation/874","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"of food at that time.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782#t=2840.06,2841.92"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782/transcript/28983/annotation/875","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"But if we went far enough in the other 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countries","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782#t=2851.5,2853.79"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782/transcript/28983/annotation/880","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"would also eat livestock and we'd utilize it this way.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782#t=2853.79,2857.683"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782/transcript/28983/annotation/881","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"\u003cstrong\u003e -:\u003c/strong\u003e It seems that our frenzy cycle 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surveillance","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782#t=2873.337,2877.06"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782/transcript/28983/annotation/884","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"and world communication, couldn't we anticipate these better","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782#t=2877.06,2881.91"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782/transcript/28983/annotation/885","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"and provide some stability","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782#t=2887.953,2889.68"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782/transcript/28983/annotation/886","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"in terms of these very severe regional droughts?","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782#t=2889.68,2893.76"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782/transcript/28983/annotation/887","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"\u003cstrong\u003e -:\u003c/strong\u003e I think that is 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production","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782#t=2898.17,2902.83"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782/transcript/28983/annotation/890","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"and prices over the world.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782#t=2902.83,2904.523"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782/transcript/28983/annotation/891","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"So, if we can predict, it's not the matter of predicting.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782#t=2905.56,2909.313"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782/transcript/28983/annotation/892","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"It's the fact when the people encounter these conditions","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782#t=2910.33,2915.33"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782/transcript/28983/annotation/893","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"that they get 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hence","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782#t=2920.19,2922.35"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782/transcript/28983/annotation/896","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"that they're going to be in a frenzy","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782#t=2922.35,2923.72"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782/transcript/28983/annotation/897","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"and they better start talk about doing something now","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782#t=2923.72,2926.13"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782/transcript/28983/annotation/898","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"rather than three years later,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782#t=2926.13,2927.29"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782/transcript/28983/annotation/899","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"somehow we got to hook them onto the machine.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782#t=2927.29,2931.173"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782/transcript/28983/annotation/900","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"But it does seem very obvious","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782#t=2933.58,2936.27"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782/transcript/28983/annotation/901","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"that we get very excited when we've had a drought.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782#t=2936.27,2940.43"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782/transcript/28983/annotation/902","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"We're going to feed everybody in the world","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782#t=2940.43,2942.01"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782/transcript/28983/annotation/903","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"and we're going to turn out everything,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782#t=2942.01,2943.56"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782/transcript/28983/annotation/904","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"and our farmers are going to turn out everything.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782#t=2943.56,2946.2"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782/transcript/28983/annotation/905","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"When the weather's good nobody is more ready","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782#t=2946.2,2949.7"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782/transcript/28983/annotation/906","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"to talk about producing less on our land,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782#t=2949.7,2951.607"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782/transcript/28983/annotation/907","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"and our farmers, and our agriculturists, and so forth.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782#t=2951.607,2955.293"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782/transcript/28983/annotation/908","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"\u003cstrong\u003e -:\u003c/strong\u003e (mumbling) most of the easily arable land in the world","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782#t=2959.81,2964.557"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782/transcript/28983/annotation/909","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"has already been put to use.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782#t=2964.557,2967.34"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782/transcript/28983/annotation/910","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"You mentioned we could double the amount","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782#t=2967.34,2968.82"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782/transcript/28983/annotation/911","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"of arable land, I guess.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782#t=2968.82,2970.02"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782/transcript/28983/annotation/912","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"You mentioned water as one of the dimensions","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782#t=2971.29,2973.13"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782/transcript/28983/annotation/913","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"in this business.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782#t=2973.13,2974.866"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782/transcript/28983/annotation/914","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"How does energy enter into it?","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782#t=2974.866,2976.76"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782/transcript/28983/annotation/915","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"Isn't it true that we're going to need to make fertilizers","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782#t=2976.76,2980.159"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782/transcript/28983/annotation/916","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"for the poorer lands in order to put them into operation?","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782#t=2980.159,2983.579"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782/transcript/28983/annotation/917","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"Isn't distribution of energy and resources","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782#t=2983.579,2986.01"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782/transcript/28983/annotation/918","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"going to be an important dimension","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782#t=2986.01,2988.061"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782/transcript/28983/annotation/919","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"in producing more agriculture?","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782#t=2988.061,2990.843"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782/transcript/28983/annotation/920","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"\u003cstrong\u003e -:\u003c/strong\u003e Of course, agriculture uses a small part","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782#t=2990.843,2993.69"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782/transcript/28983/annotation/921","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"of the total energy we use.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782#t=2993.69,2995.343"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782/transcript/28983/annotation/922","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"If we made everybody rich enough,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782#t=2996.56,2998.03"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782/transcript/28983/annotation/923","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"so as I said, everybody over the world","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782#t=2998.03,3000.23"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782/transcript/28983/annotation/924","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"can compete for the same amount of food,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782#t=3000.23,3003.42"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782/transcript/28983/annotation/925","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"they're probably going to be able to pay","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782#t=3003.42,3004.53"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782/transcript/28983/annotation/926","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"quite a high price for the energy to go into food production","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782#t=3004.53,3007.61"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782/transcript/28983/annotation/927","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"relative to other things, but there are maybe ways","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782#t=3007.61,3011.33"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782/transcript/28983/annotation/928","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"that we can begin to utilize solar energy, and so on.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782#t=3011.33,3015.883"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782/transcript/28983/annotation/929","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"I think some of the agronomists here would say","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782#t=3017.11,3019.32"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782/transcript/28983/annotation/930","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"one of the big needed things over the world to crank up","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782#t=3019.32,3023.07"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782/transcript/28983/annotation/931","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"is biological nitrogen fixation,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782#t=3023.07,3025.01"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782/transcript/28983/annotation/932","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"so that in fact we do use biological processes","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782#t=3025.01,3027.83"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782/transcript/28983/annotation/933","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"to produce the nitrogen for our fertilizer,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782#t=3027.83,3031.31"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782/transcript/28983/annotation/934","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"and this day will probably have to come to us.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782#t=3031.31,3033.723"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782/transcript/28983/annotation/935","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"\u003cstrong\u003e -:\u003c/strong\u003e Earl, what country do you see","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782#t=3038.42,3040.61"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782/transcript/28983/annotation/936","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"of the developing nations, great promise right now,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782#t=3040.61,3044.63"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782/transcript/28983/annotation/937","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"where it looks like they might be grabbing hold?","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782#t=3044.63,3049.39"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782/transcript/28983/annotation/938","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"Which countries would you pick out, and why?","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782#t=3049.39,3053.92"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782/transcript/28983/annotation/939","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"What are they doing?","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782#t=3053.92,3054.92"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782/transcript/28983/annotation/940","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"\u003cstrong\u003e -:\u003c/strong\u003e Well, there's Brazil, which is getting that underway,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782#t=3055.994,3059.75"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782/transcript/28983/annotation/941","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"and may be no longer necessarily a less developed country.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782#t=3059.75,3064.75"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782/transcript/28983/annotation/942","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"There's the Philippines, which hasn't quite","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782#t=3065.81,3067.53"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782/transcript/28983/annotation/943","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"gotten started up, but isn't very far from starting up.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782#t=3067.53,3071.22"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782/transcript/28983/annotation/944","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"All of the Southeast Asian countries I think","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782#t=3071.22,3074.037"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782/transcript/28983/annotation/945","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"are not far from getting started up.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782#t=3074.037,3077.54"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782/transcript/28983/annotation/946","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"And if they look close about them to Taiwan,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782#t=3077.54,3081.15"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782/transcript/28983/annotation/947","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"there is lesson there of what they can do.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782#t=3081.15,3083.97"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782/transcript/28983/annotation/948","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"So, this bunch is getting ready to move ahead rapidly.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782#t=3083.97,3088.813"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782/transcript/28983/annotation/949","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"\u003cstrong\u003e -:\u003c/strong\u003e Well, I guess, what sociological factor","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782#t=3089.919,3092.209"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782/transcript/28983/annotation/950","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"has figured this in those countries?","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782#t=3092.209,3095.77"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782/transcript/28983/annotation/951","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"\u003cstrong\u003e -:\u003c/strong\u003e Well, they have more resources,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782#t=3095.77,3098.283"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782/transcript/28983/annotation/952","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"and I think have sufficiently more trained manpower.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782#t=3099.24,3104.24"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782/transcript/28983/annotation/953","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"Development in food supply wasn't so much concerned","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782#t=3104.29,3107.17"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782/transcript/28983/annotation/954","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"in less developed countries 25 years back.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782#t=3107.17,3110.89"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782/transcript/28983/annotation/955","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"It was nothing of special concern in India,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782#t=3110.89,3113.7"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782/transcript/28983/annotation/956","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"say, 30 years ago.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782#t=3113.7,3114.77"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782/transcript/28983/annotation/957","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"There'd always been droughts and starvation.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782#t=3114.77,3117.65"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782/transcript/28983/annotation/958","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"That was kind of an act of God, and all the leaders","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782#t=3117.65,3121.13"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782/transcript/28983/annotation/959","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"kind of believed this sort of thing","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782#t=3121.13,3122.25"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782/transcript/28983/annotation/960","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"and they didn't get too excited about it.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782#t=3122.25,3125.13"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782/transcript/28983/annotation/961","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"But now, there are very many well-trained Indians","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782#t=3125.13,3129.23"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782/transcript/28983/annotation/962","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"in jobs there.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782#t=3129.23,3130.38"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782/transcript/28983/annotation/963","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"They know that this doesn't have to hold true,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782#t=3130.38,3133.66"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782/transcript/28983/annotation/964","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"and they serve as an administrative cadre,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782#t=3133.66,3137.073"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782/transcript/28983/annotation/965","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"which is not going to leave it be true any longer.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782#t=3138.61,3141.01"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782/transcript/28983/annotation/966","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"I think this is the right hope, say, of now,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782#t=3141.01,3143.94"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782/transcript/28983/annotation/967","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"as compared to 25 years ago.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782#t=3143.94,3146.0"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782/transcript/28983/annotation/968","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"In any country which has enough trained people","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782#t=3146.0,3150.29"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782/transcript/28983/annotation/969","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"in its management and administration,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782#t=3150.29,3153.27"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782/transcript/28983/annotation/970","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"so you could almost pick out those countries","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782#t=3153.27,3155.13"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782/transcript/28983/annotation/971","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"that have enough trained people over the last 20 years","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782#t=3155.13,3157.81"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782/transcript/28983/annotation/972","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"still remaining in the country","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782#t=3157.81,3159.02"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782/transcript/28983/annotation/973","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"who aren't off working for FAO","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782#t=3159.02,3161.059"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782/transcript/28983/annotation/974","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"or some other international agency,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782#t=3161.059,3163.64"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782/transcript/28983/annotation/975","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"which are more or less at the breakthrough","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782#t=3163.64,3166.23"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782/transcript/28983/annotation/976","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"of having the intelligence of knowing how to do it.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782#t=3166.23,3168.803"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782/transcript/28983/annotation/977","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"\u003cstrong\u003e -:\u003c/strong\u003e Ben?","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782#t=3175.323,3176.311"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782/transcript/28983/annotation/978","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"\u003cstrong\u003e -:\u003c/strong\u003e (mumbling) more question.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782#t=3176.311,3177.661"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782/transcript/28983/annotation/979","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"In this country, we have (mumbling) institutions.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782#t=3179.47,3183.66"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782/transcript/28983/annotation/980","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"All the agricultural (mumbling)","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782#t=3183.66,3186.85"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782/transcript/28983/annotation/981","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"which have produced a lot of 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country","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782#t=3197.394,3200.11"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782/transcript/28983/annotation/986","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"compared to is there anything similar in other countries?","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782#t=3200.11,3204.17"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782/transcript/28983/annotation/987","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"Do they have agricultural experiment stations","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782#t=3204.17,3206.425"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782/transcript/28983/annotation/988","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"(mumbling) as we do all over the country,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782#t=3206.425,3209.154"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782/transcript/28983/annotation/989","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"and have the ag experiment stations (mumbling) 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leadership","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782#t=3214.7,3217.403"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782/transcript/28983/annotation/991","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"(mumbling).","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782#t=3217.403,3219.322"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782/transcript/28983/annotation/992","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"\u003cstrong\u003e -:\u003c/strong\u003e Mm-hmm.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782#t=3219.322,3220.155"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782/transcript/28983/annotation/993","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"Yes, I think the United States is certainly","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782#t=3220.155,3222.08"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782/transcript/28983/annotation/994","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"the outstanding 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much,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782#t=3225.48,3227.38"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782/transcript/28983/annotation/997","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"but the last 50 years has certainly made","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782#t=3227.38,3230.1"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782/transcript/28983/annotation/998","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"a very big 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agriculture,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782#t=3233.91,3236.5"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782/transcript/28983/annotation/1001","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"and it gets up to be a large quantity.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782#t=3236.5,3238.07"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782/transcript/28983/annotation/1002","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"50, 60% year in and year out.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782#t=3238.07,3240.88"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782/transcript/28983/annotation/1003","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"If you could develop your whole economy","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782#t=3240.88,3242.35"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782/transcript/28983/annotation/1004","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"at the rate of 50, 60% growth rate, why, where would you be?","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782#t=3242.35,3245.33"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782/transcript/28983/annotation/1005","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"You'd be zooming clear off here.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782#t=3245.33,3247.18"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782/transcript/28983/annotation/1006","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"So, it has been very high.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782#t=3247.18,3249.47"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782/transcript/28983/annotation/1007","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"There have been other countries.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782#t=3249.47,3250.303"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782/transcript/28983/annotation/1008","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"I think another country who's probably did","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782#t=3250.303,3251.96"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782/transcript/28983/annotation/1009","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"about as well as ourselves was Japan.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782#t=3251.96,3254.28"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782/transcript/28983/annotation/1010","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"Japan, you have to explain part of the development of Taiwan","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782#t=3254.28,3258.51"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782/transcript/28983/annotation/1011","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"by the investment that Japan made in Taiwan","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782#t=3258.51,3261.01"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782/transcript/28983/annotation/1012","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"even back in the last part of the 19th centuries,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782#t=3261.01,3264.06"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782/transcript/28983/annotation/1013","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"and the efficiency of Japanese agriculture.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782#t=3264.06,3266.09"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782/transcript/28983/annotation/1014","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"Japanese agriculture's been efficient in all the centuries.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782#t=3266.09,3269.36"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782/transcript/28983/annotation/1015","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"It didn't look to us going there","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782#t=3269.36,3270.74"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782/transcript/28983/annotation/1016","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"and seeing these small farmers,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782#t=3270.74,3271.98"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782/transcript/28983/annotation/1017","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"but the resources that the Japanese had,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782#t=3271.98,3274.21"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782/transcript/28983/annotation/1018","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"this was an efficient agriculture.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782#t=3274.21,3276.29"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782/transcript/28983/annotation/1019","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"So, here was another example.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782#t=3276.29,3277.41"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782/transcript/28983/annotation/1020","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"These were probably the best two 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equal.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782#t=3283.36,3287.42"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782/transcript/28983/annotation/1023","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"One of the better other examples at the present time","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782#t=3287.42,3289.53"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782/transcript/28983/annotation/1024","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"in terms of geographic distribution of research","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782#t=3289.53,3292.21"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782/transcript/28983/annotation/1025","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"would be Australia, but that is a very large country.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782#t=3292.21,3296.9"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782/transcript/28983/annotation/1026","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"So, that is what is needed.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782#t=3296.9,3298.2"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782/transcript/28983/annotation/1027","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"That is what FAO should have been.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782#t=3298.2,3300.057"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782/transcript/28983/annotation/1028","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"FAO should have been a world agricultural experiment 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do","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782#t=3311.08,3312.93"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782/transcript/28983/annotation/1033","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"the same thing over the world","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782#t=3312.93,3314.79"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782/transcript/28983/annotation/1034","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"that we did in the United States.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782#t=3314.79,3316.37"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782/transcript/28983/annotation/1035","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"The international research institutes are doing that now,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782#t=3316.37,3319.85"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782/transcript/28983/annotation/1036","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"but this is kind of a late time to get in the game.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782#t=3319.85,3322.05"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782/transcript/28983/annotation/1037","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"It's a very important time to get in the game","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782#t=3322.05,3324.17"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782/transcript/28983/annotation/1038","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"so that we will have the information in the future,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782#t=3325.96,3327.8"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782/transcript/28983/annotation/1039","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"but these countries need much more research,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782#t=3327.8,3330.3"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782/transcript/28983/annotation/1040","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"and the international institutes are going to carry 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Iowa","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782#t=3334.09,3335.66"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782/transcript/28983/annotation/1043","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"when we had an experiment station here,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782#t=3335.66,3336.9"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782/transcript/28983/annotation/1044","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"but that didn't do anything for the Shelby Grundy soils","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782#t=3336.9,3339.96"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782/transcript/28983/annotation/1045","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"or the Ida-Monona soils,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782#t=3339.96,3341.79"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782/transcript/28983/annotation/1046","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"if you depend on the international research institutes","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782#t=3341.79,3344.06"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782/transcript/28983/annotation/1047","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"in this country with a whole group of countries around it.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782#t=3344.06,3346.96"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782/transcript/28983/annotation/1048","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"\u003cstrong\u003e -:\u003c/strong\u003e One of the interesting parts of your career","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782#t=3349.62,3352.17"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782/transcript/28983/annotation/1049","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"has been the interest that the people","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782#t=3352.17,3354.48"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782/transcript/28983/annotation/1050","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"behind the Iron Curtain have taken in your research.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782#t=3354.48,3358.55"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782/transcript/28983/annotation/1051","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"For years now you've been probably the one","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782#t=3358.55,3362.847"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782/transcript/28983/annotation/1052","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"agriculture economist in this country","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782#t=3362.847,3365.41"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782/transcript/28983/annotation/1053","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"that they have been very much interested","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782#t=3365.41,3368.51"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782/transcript/28983/annotation/1054","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"and gone over there.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782#t=3368.51,3369.51"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782/transcript/28983/annotation/1055","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"How do you assess their situation,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782#t=3370.538,3372.83"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782/transcript/28983/annotation/1056","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"and why is it that they were so much interested","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782#t=3372.83,3374.83"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782/transcript/28983/annotation/1057","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"in what you were doing?","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782#t=3374.83,3376.793"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782/transcript/28983/annotation/1058","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"\u003cstrong\u003e -:\u003c/strong\u003e I'm not sure I know at all.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782#t=3378.723,3380.173"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782/transcript/28983/annotation/1059","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"It's been very interesting, I think.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782#t=3383.39,3385.29"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782/transcript/28983/annotation/1060","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"I wrote two or three books that were translated","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782#t=3385.29,3387.75"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782/transcript/28983/annotation/1061","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"into Russian, Polish, and so on,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782#t=3387.75,3390.42"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782/transcript/28983/annotation/1062","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"and they in fact used these books","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782#t=3390.42,3392.16"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782/transcript/28983/annotation/1063","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"for teaching university students.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782#t=3392.16,3394.79"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782/transcript/28983/annotation/1064","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"And so, I got to be known a bit through these 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economists.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782#t=3416.83,3419.773"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782/transcript/28983/annotation/1071","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"And they believed so, so much that we finally organized,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782#t=3420.75,3424.87"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782/transcript/28983/annotation/1072","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"once upon a time, almost 10 years ago at this time,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782#t=3424.87,3428.41"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782/transcript/28983/annotation/1073","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"we organized an east-west conference in Hungary.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782#t=3428.41,3431.65"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782/transcript/28983/annotation/1074","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"We had half the people come from eastern 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States,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782#t=3436.94,3439.07"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782/transcript/28983/annotation/1077","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"and we spent our time discussing and explaining","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782#t=3439.07,3443.64"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782/transcript/28983/annotation/1078","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"how you could use the same economic 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fields,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782#t=3456.58,3460.52"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782/transcript/28983/annotation/1083","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"but the first people, the people who took over,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782#t=3460.52,3463.05"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782/transcript/28983/annotation/1084","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"say, Russian agriculture, leaders in agriculture","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782#t=3463.05,3466.006"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782/transcript/28983/annotation/1085","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"were accountants and some agronomists","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782#t=3466.006,3468.42"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782/transcript/28983/annotation/1086","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"who knew something about agriculture","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782#t=3468.42,3471.0"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782/transcript/28983/annotation/1087","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"and some other sciences,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782#t=3471.0,3473.05"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782/transcript/28983/annotation/1088","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"but there was not much economics in it.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782#t=3473.05,3474.74"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782/transcript/28983/annotation/1089","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"That's the way agricultural economics","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782#t=3474.74,3476.3"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782/transcript/28983/annotation/1090","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"got started in the United States, too.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782#t=3476.3,3477.62"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782/transcript/28983/annotation/1091","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"As you know, the agronomists started,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782#t=3477.62,3479.13"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782/transcript/28983/annotation/1092","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"now economists run the thing, but the agronomists start 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there,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782#t=3484.033,3486.763"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782/transcript/28983/annotation/1095","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"but they were kind of out of date by this time.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782#t=3487.66,3489.52"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782/transcript/28983/annotation/1096","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"They hadn't used any of the new economic 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up,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782#t=3687.29,3689.67"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782/transcript/28983/annotation/1160","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"and we talked about scientific economics afterwards.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782#t=3689.67,3692.97"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782/transcript/28983/annotation/1161","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"So, I think I have gone as a scientist, mostly,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782#t=3692.97,3695.56"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782/transcript/28983/annotation/1162","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"to eastern European countries.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782#t=3695.56,3697.377"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782/transcript/28983/annotation/1163","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"\u003cstrong\u003e -:\u003c/strong\u003e A lot of the (mumbling) important (mumbling) now,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782#t=3703.0,3704.193"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782/transcript/28983/annotation/1164","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"and as you expect, in the future.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782#t=3707.738,3710.488"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782/transcript/28983/annotation/1165","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"\u003cstrong\u003e -:\u003c/strong\u003e Well, I'm no expert on food from the seas,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782#t=3711.746,3715.74"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782/transcript/28983/annotation/1166","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"as well as not being an expert on some other things.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782#t=3715.74,3719.17"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782/transcript/28983/annotation/1167","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"Right at the present time, without more work,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782#t=3719.17,3722.76"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782/transcript/28983/annotation/1168","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"it looks like in the next few years","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782#t=3722.76,3724.9"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782/transcript/28983/annotation/1169","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"our task is more nearly to conserve what we have","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782#t=3724.9,3727.5"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782/transcript/28983/annotation/1170","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"to keep the rate of output being where it is","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782#t=3727.5,3730.41"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782/transcript/28983/annotation/1171","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"rather than to be able to extend it.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782#t=3730.41,3732.283"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782/transcript/28983/annotation/1172","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"My hope is more nearly on the land than on the sea,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782#t=3733.28,3736.28"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782/transcript/28983/annotation/1173","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"at the present time.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782#t=3736.28,3737.28"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782/transcript/28983/annotation/1174","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"\u003cstrong\u003e -:\u003c/strong\u003e Well, thank you again, Earl.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782#t=3742.155,3747.04"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782/transcript/28983/annotation/1175","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"We have refreshments in front,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782#t=3747.04,3749.13"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782/transcript/28983/annotation/1176","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"and I'd like to announce the title","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782#t=3749.13,3751.53"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782/transcript/28983/annotation/1177","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"of the next Sigma Xi meeting,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782#t=3751.53,3754.03"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782/transcript/28983/annotation/1178","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"and that will be the spring lecture on March 29th.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782#t=3754.03,3758.56"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782/transcript/28983/annotation/1179","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"Dr. Dwayne Wulner, who's the Casmins Professor","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782#t=3758.56,3762.32"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782/transcript/28983/annotation/1180","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"of the History of Science from University of Oklahoma.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782#t=3762.32,3766.39"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782/transcript/28983/annotation/1181","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"And his title will be Science and Beauty:","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782#t=3766.39,3769.7"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782/transcript/28983/annotation/1182","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"The Renaissance of Science.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782#t=3769.7,3772.05"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782/transcript/28983/annotation/1183","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"And so, we'll see you then.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782#t=3772.05,3773.78"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782/transcript/28983/annotation/1184","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"Thank you.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782#t=3774.794,3775.627"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782/transcript/28983/annotation/1185","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"(applause)","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782#t=3775.627,3777.877"}]},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782/transcript/28983","type":"AnnotationPage","label":{"en":["English [Transcript]"]},"items":[{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782/transcript/28983/annotation/1186","type":"Annotation","motivation":"subtitling","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"https://d9jk7wjtjpu5g.cloudfront.net/file_transcripts/associated_files/000/028/983/original/AV168052_a.vtt?1622850120","format":"text/vtt","language":"en"},"target":"https://d9jk7wjtjpu5g.cloudfront.net/file_transcripts/associated_files/000/028/983/original/AV168052_a.vtt?1622850120"}]},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782/transcript/28984","type":"AnnotationPage","label":{"en":["AV168052_a.txt [Transcript]"]},"items":[{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782/transcript/28984/annotation/1187","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"- an old friend lecture tonight. As a matter of fact, I'll introduce two old friends. I'd like to introduce Maryann Ash first. And if we were honoring contributions to Iowa State, and faculty women's college, and all that, we would be honoring you tonight, and then you'd have to give a lecture. And also, I'd like to introduce our 1979 honorary lecturer, Earl Heady. Earl Heady is Professor of Economics at Iowa State, Curtiss Distinguished Professor of Agriculture. He was named to that position in 1956, and he's also director of the... I think we've gone... You're gonna have to be very careful with this connection here, Earl. Director of the Center for Agricultural and Rural Development. Earl was born in Nebraska. He grew up in Nebraska, and he received his bachelor's and master's degrees at the University if Nebraska, and his doctor's degree at Iowa State University. He also received honorary doctor's degrees at the University of Nebraska in 1960, and the University of Uppsala, in Sweden, in 1966. He has traveled, has work experience in 40 different countries, and he's an honorary member of the Hungarian Academy of Science, the Swedish Academy of Science, and those were in '65 and 1974. And he started accumulating awards as another graduate. There are numerous awards there, and he hasn't stopped since. He received the Social Sciences Research Council Award, 1950 to '53, and he has a monopoly on the American Agricultural Economics Association Award for outstanding research, and he's won this award no less than nine times from 1949 to 1977. Other awards included local awards, such as the best book of an Iowa State faculty member of the Iowa State University Press. He received the ISU Alumni Association Faculty Citation in 1977, and he's been honored nationally at Gamma Sigma Delta International Award for Service to Agriculture in 1975. Recent awards are the Browning Medal, American Society of Agronomy. This was 1977, and most recently, the Henry A. Wallace Award for Distinguished Service to Agriculture, and that was in 1978, just last year. He's the author, co-author of 20 books and over 800 journal articles, and autographs, reviews, and research bulletins. He's a member of 16 to, I might just get rid of this, 16 to 20 national, state, regional, university boards, advisory boards, institutes, councils, and committees, such as the White House Committee on Domestic Affairs, the Research and Advisory Committee of the USAID for the State Department, the Advisory Committee of the State Department on World Food Programs, just to mention a few. And he just participated a couple weeks ago in a two-day workshop that was organized by Secretary of Agriculture Bergland, and Senator Talmadge, Chairman of the Senate Agricultural Committee, Representative Foley, Chairman of the House Agricultural Committee pertaining to future changes in agricultural structures and policies. He's a world authority. I could go on like this forever, but I'll conclude by saying he's a world authority on potential and restraints in world food production, and that's the title of his 1979 Sigma Xi annual honors lecture. Dr. Heady. We'll get this working, and then I'm going to pin it on Dr. Heady, and he's on his own from there on. This goes to the tape.\r\n\r\n- These are recordings. If this doesn't work, you can listen to the tapes tomorrow. Thanks, Paul. It is a real honor to give the Sigma Xi lecture. It might be better though, if my wife did give it. Only a short term back, about three years ago, we were having many world food conferences over the world and everybody was excited about what was happening. More recently, in the United States, farmers have been figuring out how to cut down on food production. So, in returning to this topic of world food production potential, and its constraints, as some people suggested that I might do, leaders in this nation and in other countries go through a frenzy cycle with respect to world food problems. The peak of the cycle comes in years when crops are poor in some world regions. World grain prices increased dramatically, and large groups of people suffer intensified malnutrition. A trough occurs when the grain supplies are large, and domestic prices are low. We then turn away from the long problems of world food supplies and human nutrition, and become more concerned, as we are now, with price support and restraining production in the United States. Peaks of the frenzy cycle occurred in the early 1950s with the domestic fifth plate concerns. Some of you perhaps remember that, when we were concerned with population growth in the United States, and in every N years, a fifth plate would show up at our tables to be fed. We wondered then could we feed even our own population growth? Then hit a peak again in 1966, '67, with drought on the Indian subcontinent. And following 1972 with large crop shortfalls in Russia and other parts of the world. The following '52 and the late '50s our main concern was back to land banks and other means of controlling food supplies in the United States. Following Secretary Freeman's relaxing of supply controls in 1967, following the big food scare of '66, '67, large US production and depressed farm prices in 1968, following his letting out the grain egrets, possibly finalized the victory of Nixon over Humphrey by a slight margin in the Midwest. And by the fall of 1977, Secretary Bergland was already proposing a reduction of 20% in wheat and 10% in US speed grain production. As long as concerns follow this oscillating and transitory pattern, sustained, long-run solutions of the world problem are unlikely to be developed. This cycle itself restrains improve world food supplies. Hence, it is useful that we do continue assessment of food production potential, restraints on it, and policies to attain it. That's what I would like to focus on these potentials, restraints, and policies in this lecture. It is again, useful to first inventory the potential sources of increased food production, and then evaluate the restraints that relate to each one of these. There is basis for optimism in meshing world food supplies and demand at appropriate nutrition levels over the next 40 years, if restraints on both institutions and market relationships are identified and eliminated through appropriate policies. The picture is still not unlike that disclosed in our basic study nearly a decade back. However, appropriate policies, particularly those relating to population growth, must be exercised effectively if the world is not to become enmeshed in a pincher from which it cannot readily escape. Major means of increasing world food supplies include the following. One, by increasing yields through improved technologies, such as high yielding varieties, higher fertilizer rates, pest control, improved water management, and so forth, implemented by means of research, technology transfer, and education. As explained later, opportunities thus for increasing yields are generally highest in the developing countries where yields currently are low as compared to developed countries. Second, by more intensive use of currently cultivated land through multiple cropping, inter-cropping, and related means that more efficiently use rainfall and solar energy which are now unused. There is considerable opportunity here, especially with potential development of water supplies and changes in water management laws and pricing. The possible gains from this source have been well illustrated with multiple cropping in Taiwan, inter-cropping systems in Indonesia, the programs worked out at IRRI in the Philippines. Generally, the less developed countries have climates or long and year-round growing seasons, conforming with multiple cropping possibilities and greater flexibility in cropping seasons. A third method, by bringing uncultivated land into production. There still are, some claim, sizable areas that are not under crops, and a considerable area of the world devoted to shifting crop, shifting calibration. The fact that farmers do shift from one place to the other, and in many parts of the world, suggests that land isn't entirely scarce. Uncultivated land is posed to prevail in considerable quantities in the savannas of South America, of Africa, the Amazon basin, large parts of the bush in Africa, and some of the outer islands in Malaya, Indonesia, some of the outer places of Thailand, and so forth. Some estimates say that potentially arable land, of potentially arable land, only 22% of that in Africa, 11% of that in South America, and about 45% worldwide is now under cultivation. We have to imagine some of the slopes we cultivated were spread out that far. The Holland Group estimates that whereas 1 4/10 billion hectares currently are in cultivation, some 3 4/10 billion hectares could be cultivated at the extreme. They estimate that irrigated land could be increased from 200 million acres to 470 million acres. Another estimate by Clark puts the world's potentially arable land at nine million hectares, at nine billion hectares. While these figures are probably evidently far too optimistic, and use of some fragile lands could cause environmental deterioration, land isn't a scarce resource in all parts of the world, or there would be less shifting cultivation. Even the United States has a considerable amount of land that could be brought in to grain cropping under sufficient capital investment and under sustained high commodity prices. Estimates suggest that there may be as many as 265 million acres, which could be converted to the equivalent of land capability classes one to three, with perhaps 125 million acres of this having good potential for conversion, and less so for the rest. Capital requirements, of course, are high for leveling tropical jungles, controlling second growths thereafter, and maintaining soil fertility. Other problems of forest soils, processing facilities, and markets also prevail in some of these localities. FAO estimates that an additional 53 million hectares of new land could be cropped in 10 years at a cost of $26 billion at monetary values of the early 1970s. Another 46 million hectares could be renovated and improved for 21 billion, and irrigation schemes could be developed on 23 million hectares for 38 billion. These costs would be eight billion annually over a period of 10 years. While these figures suggest feasible expansion in the arable land base over the future, the greatest potential for the increased food production is an improved technology and intensification of production on lands already cropped. Fourth method, by saving a greater proportion of crops that are produced. Estimates indicate high losses, especially in less developed countries, to rodents, and birds, and through spoilage, inadequate silos and granaries. These losses are sometimes indicated to be very high. Sometimes less developed countries are accused of being wasteful. I am not sure how true this is after you go to India and find people following cattle around and picking cow dung up by the handful and either making fuel out or fertilizer, you wonder how big these losses really are, and if they are up to this 33% that sometimes is posed. Another method, by diverting a greater proportion of grains from livestock consumption to human consumption, this is of course, a complex and debatable alternative. In general, it implies shifting a greater proportion of the world's grain consumption from the rich countries where per capita consumption of meat is high to the poorer countries, where per capita direct consumption of grain is high, and little grain is consumed through livestock. This is a controversial source of increased food availability for the world, and policies therefore, are not likely to be initiated soon. It could, of course, be implemented by two extreme means. One would be a set of outright rules that prevented grain feeding of livestock, except for grain feeding of livestock, or waste forages made greater amounts of food possible. Use of this approach is unlikely for these reasons. The second would be through economic and market institutions. If per capita incomes over the world suddenly could be raised to the level of England, for example, consumers in Asia, Africa, and South America would bid the price of grain to be used as food so high that grain feeding of livestock would take a drastic decline. World grain supplies then would be spread more evenly among consumers worldwide, and greater availability from existing resources would prevail. I think many of us have been interested in developing the world and increasing food supplies in the world. We've never quite stepped back to think what would happen if we did bring the income of everybody in the world up to the level of France, or if we did bring it up to the level of the United States, if every Chinese family had two cars in its garage and every Indian family had two cars in its garage, we might be satisfied by celebrating Christmas with just one Big Mac once a year, and this is about what the competition for foods would be, should incomes per capita be increased far enough. And another potential source is of course, by greater production and utilization of foods of sea origin, but perhaps our main concern here is more nearly that of conservation rather than increases. As mentioned previously, the most promising manner for increasing food production likely, is through land already in cultivation. The developed market economies produce 60% of the world's grain supply on approximately 36% of the world's grain area, while the developing countries produce about 40% of the world's grain supply on the other 64% of the area. Hence, simply by bringing productivity in the developing countries up to that of the developed countries would increase food production expectedly by 67\u0026. The capability of the world to produce more food also is apparent from yield trends in developing countries. In the period 1934 to '38, grain yields averaged 1.15 tons per hectare in the developed countries and 1.14 tons per hectare in the developing countries. Practically the same yields. But in the period 1973, '75, yields in the developed countries averaged three tons per hectare, while developing countries had only 1 4/10 tons. Of the industrialized countries, only Japan had significant increases in grain yields in the last quarter century of the 18th century. In this period, grain yields in Japan increased from 1 3/10 to two tons per hectare. Otherwise, most of the yield increase in industrial countries has been in the last 40 years. Before 1940, grain yields in the United States averaged 1 1/2 tons per hectare, but in recent years, they've averaged something more than 3 1/2 tons. Hence, there is little reason why developing countries in the long run cannot do as well or better than developed countries, particularly since the former, the developing countries, are in very rough fashion, arranged where climates are tropical, with opportunities of multiple cropping while the developed countries are more nearly in the temperate climate. The 1930s was a period in which only a small amount of chemical technology was being used in agriculture of both developed and developing countries. Improvement in varieties and use of hybrids was modest everywhere, as compared to development since then. An important reason for these differences in yield trends has been investment in agricultural research and education. This was the basis for the early Japanese increases in the late 19th century, and especially for the United States in the last four decades. While their populations are most threatened with future food shortages, the developing countries tend to be those which undervalue agriculture the most. The undervalue of agriculture is partly reflected in their overly modest investment in agriculture research, and to their allocation of the major share of development in the investment to other industries. It also is reflected in their pricing policies which depress prices to farmers for the benefit of consumers. This doesn't mean that consumers sometimes should not have prices lowered for them, but there are means to do it without depressing the price to farmers and killing incentives. Many countries use many methods to do so. The Thailand export rice on tax on rice drives down the price to consumers for the benefit of farmers. It's been estimated that since 1963, rice has been under-priced relative to world markets by as much as 50% in India. Again, pushing the price down and killing the incentive for farmers. Controlled cereal prices in Egypt have caused farmers to shift resources from the basic staples to other commodities like in controls. Other Asian and African countries similarly, have used pricing policies and marketing boards to keep real prices of farm commodities low. Simultaneously, many of them keep inputs such as fertilizer at high real levels. We in the United States, of course, have aided in this distortion of prices. Hertford shows that between 1953 and 1973, during a period of large imports of low cost, Public Law 480 grain from the United States into Colombia, supposedly our food aid, wheat acreage in Colombia fell sharply and research on wheat was cut in half. And we may be at the stage of doing these sorts of things again. We've returned to above market prices for commodities without effective supply controls, and are building up large stocks and accumulation. And as this continues, we then well may be prone to again, export our surpluses as food aid to drive down the prices for cultivators in developing countries. Developed countries have undervalued agriculture to emphasize the industrial and consumer sectors which are better organized, more local, or have greater political strength. But some developed countries also have overvalued and overpriced agriculture. Of the many examples, the European common market and Japan stands out, of the many examples, by pricing policies and import levels they have blocked imports from countries which can both produce at lower cost and produce more than they are now producing. Trade with developing countries, thus, is discouraged. While developing countries do import some food, agriculture is also a major source of exports. As much as 50% of export earnings are from agriculture in many developing countries. So, trade policies, as well as domestic price policies, and an undervalue of agriculture obstruct the movement of poor countries to their full food producing capacity. With yields in the developing countries less than half of those in the developed countries on a larger cereal acreage, physical potential for increasing food supplies is quite obvious. Water resources now used for irrigation over much of the developed world are deployed very inefficiently. Improving the physical, legal, and economic conditions surrounding water use could add a considerable quantity to food supplies. Further development of water resources also could add to supplies. Land reclamation to bring a greater area under cultivation could proceed a long ways in increasing food supplies. How far it should proceed depends on the supply price, which the world's consumers are wiling to pay for food, and the trade offs implied in producing more food for more people relative to other investments alternatives on behalf of humanity. Certainly, much more food could be produced on land not now cropped. If humanity were able to make the needed investment and to drive the supply price of food high enough, it will probably do so if per capita incomes and populations in the developing countries increase sufficiently and simultaneously. Under certain conditions of growth, however, developing countries are going to have to face more directly the trade off among major competing alternative such as on the one hand, continued rapid population growth, eventual investment in land reclamation, and hard, high marginal supply prices for food, as against on the other hand, reduced population growth, greater investment in education, other human capital, housing, health facilities. I am saying that I think we could go a long ways increasing the world population, then we'd find expensive ways of producing the food. We'd always be able to produce the food, but at great expense, at great sacrifice, and housing, health facilities, and other things, which would make many fewer people much happier. A number of studies have projected world food production into the future. The Holland Group is highly optimistic for the long run, and estimates the absolute maximum potential food production to be almost 40 times that of current food production. Our own projections, while less optimistic, also provide favorable possibilities for the next 40 years. The period in which the world could begin to get its house in order for reducing population growth rates. Of course, not all estimates of future supply/demand balances are so optimistic. The Club of Rome, of course, presented a dim outlook under any conditions. The International Food Policy Research Institute estimates for developing market economies alone, a 10% gap between production needed food consumption within these countries in 1990, if food per capita remained as at present. But a gap between production demand in 1990 with income growth at high levels, at 21%. Our own estimates under different scenarios for the future show with low population growth a high land base adding back into crops, only land which has sufficient moisture for multiple cropping which is near markets, and so forth, that in fact we could be producing a surplus of grains at trend rates of technical improvement. In 40 years we wouldn't produce a surplus because more people over the world would eat livestock, which would use up the grains. On the other hand, at the other extreme with continued high population growth, high income growth, low land base, that we would have a 230 million ton deficit by that time. So, to be optimistic, with respect to how much food can be produced is not being optimistic with respect to how much food will be produced. How much will be produced from available arable land and water resources depends on the implementation of appropriate policies that impinge on food production in the developing countries. To a large extent, augmentation of food supplies does not involve new or mysterious processes. It requires processes which are already known, and executing agricultural research, and investing in land and improved water development, and keeping agricultural production profitable, and augmenting input supplies and related steps. But administrators and politicians in developing countries must be serious in applying appropriate policies so that these processes are in fact executed. The task of selecting and implementing appropriate policies should be easier in the future than it has been in the past, and some important progress has been made in developing countries in the past. Thinking in the last 18 years that the rate of food output has grown at about 3% per year, the rate of population output has grown about 2 1/2% per year, has allowed some improvement in nutritional possibilities, even though we have had big bumps, such as those in the middle 1970s. In the early part of this period, 1950 to '66, 56% of to nearly 70% of increased food production came from increased acreage. During the latter part of it, '67 you know '75, nearly 70% has come from yield increases. So, with the potential summaries earlier, it would seem that as much or more could be accomplished in the next two decades. Developing countries are better supplied with trained and experienced manpower and administrators than in the 1960s when they were only a couple steps removed from colonial administrations. To be optimistic on the ability of the world to produce enough food to keep up with modest population increases and eliminate a good share of existing malnutrition over the next 30 years does not solve the longer run problems of high birth rates and population growth over the next 100 years. But the world does have a period of 30 to 40 years in which to gear up to decrease birth rates. The variables involved are complex and must be tackled with great vigor immediately, if population and food demand are to be reasonably restrained against food production possibilities. And they include not only conventional educational and technical means for reducing birth rates, but also involve increased per capita income, improving the worth of women's time, and developing Social Security or old age pensions for many people. Data from the less developing countries indicate that the elasticity of birth with respect to income and education of women to be minus .33 and minus .25, respectively. Meaning that for each 1% increase in the income of women in poor countries, birth rate declines by 1/3. Or an increase of 1% in the educational level of women in the poor countries, birth rate declines by 1/4 of a percent, as compared to men where the elasticity is plus 25. Increase the education of men in developed countries and birth rate increases by 1/4 of a percent. So, an improvement in the value of woman's time through education, employment opportunities, and economic and social participation is a necessary step in reducing birth rates. The opportunity cost of a woman's time must become so great that she cannot afford to produce so many children. Similarly, Social Security programs must be developed in all countries in order that parents do not have to raise so many children to support themselves in old age. So, there's some good illustrations of what happens here. Hungary might be taken as a good illustration, where women of education... Economic and social policies which prevent physical resources from being sufficiently developed, which depress incentives to use of more purchase inputs and interfere with trade, which would better exploit international comparative advantage in food production. The earlier Japanese advances and the yield gains of the United States over recent decades resulted from investments in research, which were then communicated effectively to farmers. At earlier times, this research was made mainly by the public. In recent times, as agriculture's become highly capitalized, the private sector's become equally important in researching and communicating new production possibilities to farmers. In the developing countries, however, this investment remains mainly a function of government enterprise. An increase in expenditures on agricultural research is necessary if the production potential on presently cultivated lands is to be attained. This gap cannot be completely filled by the international research institutes funded by donor nations, since much of that, the research is site-specific. By these research institutes, I mean IRRI in the Philippines, ICRISAT in India, CIMMYT in Mexico, and so forth. The low income countries invest only about 25% as much on agricultural research, relative to the value of agriculture production as do the developed, high income countries. The international research institutes can contribute in more basic work such as developing genetic materials, while they thus provide a foundation for further improvement. Development such as these do not substitute for active research and the development of practices which are complementary with the local environment in individual countries. Also, there's the possibility the individual countries may come to rest and depend too much on the existence of the international research centers, leading individual countries to neglect their own national research programs. Restraints in research stand not alone from the magnitude of investment. Related problems are those of the organization of research and the supply of trained personnel and salary levels. While a few developing countries have a fairly large number of persons trained to the PhD levels, lack of trained manpower is the dominating restraint in the majority of developing countries. It is of course, a restraint which can be overcome if developing and donor countries are willing to make sufficient investments. But as many as 30,000 new university graduates per year, as estimated, are required for a sufficient agricultural research and extension service to promote agricultural development at a reasonable rate over the next two decades. But even if that investment is made, research institutes must be able to hold newly trained personnel. Salary levels in research institutes and universities in the majority of the developing countries are too low to hold young scientists, and they soon migrate into administrative, private sector, and international employment. Other problems in research organization also exist, including seniority, bureaucratic systems, which discourage newly trained personnel, concentration of research on one or two major cereals and industrial crops with little emphasis on root, protein, and similar foods. As mentioned previously, national pricing policy also has served as a restraint on cultivator investments and greater food supplies. Much has been learned in the last two decades about the responsiveness of cultivators in developing countries to respond to price. That even small farmers with illiterate operators respond positively to favorable commodity prices is now well quantified. Hopefully, policymakers and administrators will heed this information and refrain from programs which cause farm commodities to be undervalued and inputs to be overpriced in the future. Indirectly, all policies which dampen trade of developed countries with developing countries restrain development of the developing countries. An important limitation in most developing countries is foreign exchange, where their lack of foreign exchange directly limits capital good imports for industrial and agricultural uses. The effect is generally the same in restraining development. Some improvements for agriculture depend directly on importing capital goods and technologies. Examples being chemical plants, fertilizers, and so forth. In other cases, if foreign exchange is not available for industrial goods, more of the domestic budget must be shifted away from agriculture to the industrial sector. While perhaps not dominant, limited capital also is a restraint in the further development of world food supplies, and especially serves as a restraint in the adoption of improved technology by small farmers. It need not do so in the long run, however, if credit policies were adapted to serve this group of farmers rather than to only the larger farmers in developing countries. Capital is a major restraint in the clearing and leveling of land and improving water distribution and developing large, new irrigation systems. In large areas which might be reclaimed for crops, sizable investments in roads and other infrastructure is necessary, and until these public investments are made, private investment will be restrained in land reclamation. Lack of profitability of price or price instability also is a major restraint in reclaiming land, which could be converted to crops. Large amount of land will be brought into cultivation when per capita incomes and food demand drive prices to sufficiently high levels for a sustained period of time. United States farmers had 12% more land in reduction in 1977 and 1972. Had soybeans remained at $12 a bushel and corn and wheat at $5 a bushel for a dozen years, I suppose all of that 265 million acres plus another 50 million acres I talked about awhile ago would have been plowed up and in grain. I guess that's what those farmers in Washington talking about now. Let's get the prices back up there and plow it up and get some food over the world. With grains, after 1973, '75, real levels for 30 years, obviously great quantities of soybeans have been flushed out of Brazil, other areas of the world, and a lot of cereals and palm oil production would come from many other hilltops over the world. It is possible that cap availability has been less a restraint on agriculture productivity than the allocative patterns used for its investment. Only 10% of international aid funds have gone into agriculture. A disproportionate amount has gone into industry. Even of capital allocated to agriculture, some claim that it has been misallocated, especially for capital-intensive land infrastructure developments. And it does appear that this seems to be a major kind of a program emphasized by aid programs in various country. If you can build a big dam, it shows off better than if you do many other small biological things, which some do more. Although it is not readily quantified, management is posed as a more binding constraint than capital in limiting the rate in extent of agricultural development experienced in the past. The lack of sufficiently able and experienced management personnel causes inappropriate allocations of capital investment, and inefficient execution of capital projects, once they had been initiated. Common examples include large-scale public irrigation investments, which lack efficient tertiary canals and distribution systems for water. This restraint need not, of course, prevail in the long run. Most developing countries have more trained personnel than in the 1950s, and further investments in human capital for these purposes can and should be made, even though the problem currently is crucial in some countries. Reference has been made to the world's potential arable land. Much of it is not now cropped because of unfavorable environmental conditions, including limited moisture and soil deficiencies. Before the large area projected by Clark and Bergland that I stated earlier could be converted to crop land, land would need to come from pasture, forests, jungles, and similar uses. Some of these lands are surrounded by fragile circumstances. Benny indicated that a large amount of the humid tropical forest might be transformed into unproductive wetland in the next 25 years, and the savannas increasingly into African desert. Hence, environmental conditions will restrain cultivation-intensive raising of land, and until conditions and technologies are found which can remove the negative environmental impacts, these conditions may require the international management and allocation of water and grazing, particularly the diversion and control of water at the headwaters of rivers. While FAO estimates indicate another 23 million hectares of land could feasibly be irrigated in the 1980s, perhaps equally important in food potential is improved water management systems for land already under irrigation. Historic rites, customs, politics, and cultural conditions are barriers to allocations based on the marginal value productivity of water in all countries. That is true even in the United States. If we were able to allocate water according to its productivity, we could produce much more than we can on the present system of historic rites. The restraints on world food production I have been discussing are not insurmountable. Prospects for the future are positive, and at least in the intermediate future, restraints of social and economic policies are more important than physical restraints. To attain the possibilities that prevail for the future will require political stability and wise economic and social policies of the type implied previously. These policies, equally, must provide economic incentives for exploiting the physical possibilities that exist, and for checking population growth in the manner that is now becoming apparent. So, in summary, my outlook is positive on the physical possibilities of food production, more pessimistic in terms of social and economic policies that allow us to utilize the total physical capacity that exists. We have a world food institute on the campus. Maybe it should concentrate on the social and economic policies which restrain physical utilization of our facilities that exist, or maybe I'm more concerned about population growth than I am about our ability to produce food. Maybe on the campus we should equally have a population control institute. So, this is my summary, and now I guess I'm ready for questions from all the authorities who know more about this than do I.\r\n\r\n- Thank you very much, Earl. This is so we will limit the discussion to about 15 minutes, and then you can visit with Earl. In the lobby. So, are there any questions or discussions?\r\n\r\n- Here's one from Norman.\r\n\r\n- You said we have perhaps 40 years of grace. What is your predicted world population 40 years from now, and are you suggesting that they would be fed approximately the quantity and quality that the people are receiving now? And thirdly, do you expect the plateauing of population to occur? Is this what you're predicting at that time, 40 years?\r\n\r\n- world food production and population. One was we have about three levels of population growth. High growth, continued growth, decline. There is some prospect that it might decline. High growth per capita income, medium growth per capita income, low growth in per capita income. Under all of these conditions, add more land, add the land which is possible, so we would have a different population level out here at each one of these. So, under the most severe conditions, the highest population growth rates, then we'd come out with large negative balances of food at that time. But if we went far enough in the other direction, we could have surpluses of food. At least cereals in this period. We probably wouldn't have surpluses of food because then people in the poorer countries would also eat livestock and we'd utilize it this way.\r\n\r\n- It seems that our frenzy cycle increases with the bad weather over large portions . And with our capabilities of surveillance and world communication, couldn't we anticipate these better and provide some stability in terms of these very severe regional droughts?\r\n\r\n- I think that is right. We really only have these frenzy peaks and troughs following these weather and what happens to crop production and prices over the world. So, if we can predict, it's not the matter of predicting. It's the fact when the people encounter these conditions that they get excited. So, we got to convince people if we predict ahead of time that there's going to be a drought three years hence that they're going to be in a frenzy and they better start talk about doing something now rather than three years later, somehow we got to hook them onto the machine. But it does seem very obvious that we get very excited when we've had a drought. We're going to feed everybody in the world and we're going to turn out everything, and our farmers are going to turn out everything. When the weather's good nobody is more ready to talk about producing less on our land, and our farmers, and our agriculturists, and so forth.\r\n\r\n- most of the easily arable land in the world has already been put to use. You mentioned we could double the amount of arable land, I guess. You mentioned water as one of the dimensions in this business. How does energy enter into it? Isn't it true that we're going to need to make fertilizers for the poorer lands in order to put them into operation? Isn't distribution of energy and resources going to be an important dimension in producing more agriculture?\r\n\r\n- Of course, agriculture uses a small part of the total energy we use. If we made everybody rich enough, so as I said, everybody over the world can compete for the same amount of food, they're probably going to be able to pay quite a high price for the energy to go into food production relative to other things, but there are maybe ways that we can begin to utilize solar energy, and so on. I think some of the agronomists here would say one of the big needed things over the world to crank up is biological nitrogen fixation, so that in fact we do use biological processes to produce the nitrogen for our fertilizer, and this day will probably have to come to us.\r\n\r\n- Earl, what country do you see of the developing nations, great promise right now, where it looks like they might be grabbing hold? Which countries would you pick out, and why? What are they doing?\r\n\r\n- Well, there's Brazil, which is getting that underway, and may be no longer necessarily a less developed country. There's the Philippines, which hasn't quite gotten started up, but isn't very far from starting up. All of the Southeast Asian countries I think are not far from getting started up. And if they look close about them to Taiwan, there is lesson there of what they can do. So, this bunch is getting ready to move ahead rapidly.\r\n\r\n- Well, I guess, what sociological factor has figured this in those countries?\r\n\r\n- Well, they have more resources, and I think have sufficiently more trained manpower. Development in food supply wasn't so much concerned in less developed countries 25 years back. It was nothing of special concern in India, say, 30 years ago. There'd always been droughts and starvation. That was kind of an act of God, and all the leaders kind of believed this sort of thing and they didn't get too excited about it. But now, there are very many well-trained Indians in jobs there. They know that this doesn't have to hold true, and they serve as an administrative cadre, which is not going to leave it be true any longer. I think this is the right hope, say, of now, as compared to 25 years ago. In any country which has enough trained people in its management and administration, so you could almost pick out those countries that have enough trained people over the last 20 years still remaining in the country who aren't off working for FAO or some other international agency, which are more or less at the breakthrough of having the intelligence of knowing how to do it.\r\n\r\n- Ben?\r\n\r\n- more question. In this country, we have institutions. All the agricultural which have produced a lot of research on increasing productivity. Can you just put the impact of the agriculture experiment stations and the research effort in this country compared to is there anything similar in other countries? Do they have agricultural experiment stations as we do all over the country, and have the ag experiment stations factor in American leadership, if there is American leadership .\r\n\r\n- Mm-hmm. Yes, I think the United States is certainly the outstanding case. We were early in the game. Maybe the first 50 years didn't mean so much, but the last 50 years has certainly made a very big difference. And numerous studies have been made of what has been the return on research in agriculture, and it gets up to be a large quantity. 50, 60% year in and year out. If you could develop your whole economy at the rate of 50, 60% growth rate, why, where would you be? You'd be zooming clear off here. So, it has been very high. There have been other countries. I think another country who's probably did about as well as ourselves was Japan. Japan, you have to explain part of the development of Taiwan by the investment that Japan made in Taiwan even back in the last part of the 19th centuries, and the efficiency of Japanese agriculture. Japanese agriculture's been efficient in all the centuries. It didn't look to us going there and seeing these small farmers, but the resources that the Japanese had, this was an efficient agriculture. So, here was another example. These were probably the best two examples. Now, in recent years, some of the European countries have come up and begun to become about equal. One of the better other examples at the present time in terms of geographic distribution of research would be Australia, but that is a very large country. So, that is what is needed. That is what FAO should have been. FAO should have been a world agricultural experiment station rather than a world questionnaire gathering sort of organization. It should've had experiments scattered all over the world. All of the world areas should have tried to do the same thing over the world that we did in the United States. The international research institutes are doing that now, but this is kind of a late time to get in the game. It's a very important time to get in the game so that we will have the information in the future, but these countries need much more research, and the international institutes are going to carry on because that's going to be localized. That's about like the old days in Iowa when we had an experiment station here, but that didn't do anything for the Shelby Grundy soils or the Ida-Monona soils, if you depend on the international research institutes in this country with a whole group of countries around it.\r\n\r\n- One of the interesting parts of your career has been the interest that the people behind the Iron Curtain have taken in your research. For years now you've been probably the one agriculture economist in this country that they have been very much interested and gone over there. How do you assess their situation, and why is it that they were so much interested in what you were doing?\r\n\r\n- I'm not sure I know at all. It's been very interesting, I think. I wrote two or three books that were translated into Russian, Polish, and so on, and they in fact used these books for teaching university students. And so, I got to be known a bit through these books. They were the only western books that were translated for quite a long time into their languages, and they found, I think, that the tools western economists use are exactly the same tools that could be used by eastern economists. And they believed so, so much that we finally organized, once upon a time, almost 10 years ago at this time, we organized an east-west conference in Hungary. We had half the people come from eastern Europe and half the people come from the west, western Europe, United States, and we spent our time discussing and explaining how you could use the same economic tool in agriculture of the east as you used in the west. But it was mostly a new generation of economists in eastern Europe. Forgive me if I say this, my friends in other fields, but the first people, the people who took over, say, Russian agriculture, leaders in agriculture were accountants and some agronomists who knew something about agriculture and some other sciences, but there was not much economics in it. That's the way agricultural economics got started in the United States, too. As you know, the agronomists started, now economists run the thing, but the agronomists start it. Well, the accountants and agronomists have started agricultural economics over there, but they were kind of out of date by this time. They hadn't used any of the new economic tools. They were still busy studying agronomy, and these young economists in eastern Europe were anxious to get ahold of modern western tools. After all, you can use them just as well as you can in the west. I might recite a story about one time I went to, first time I went to eastern Europe. I was supposed to give a lecture in Hungary, and I looked at some of the things Hungarians were interested in so I prepared a talk in the application of a linear programming model to the best distribution of crop land over a country. And I had the talk read for me, and after the talk was presented a man stood up and said he was a Marxian economist and he couldn't go along with what I had said because western economies rested too much on diminishing or marginal productivity, especially diminishing marginal returns and the Marxian economists couldn't admit there was any such thing as diminishing margin returns. But I told him he was wrong. He had listened to the paper. It was a paper on linear programming and didn't suppose diminishing returns, but the answer was in Hungary, because if there were not diminishing returns, Hungary could grow all of its food on one acre of land, and I got many people who applauded me on it of the audience, and so forth. And another fellow stood up and said he also was a Marxian economist and he had listened to the paper and he did know what linear programming was about, but he had some Soviet friends who told him linear programming wasn't a good tool 'cause they had tried to formulate chicken rations with the method and it said to feed each hen 100 kilograms of straw per day. So, I told him the problem wasn't with the method, it was with the man. He didn't know his poultry nutrition or his mathematics and he forgot to put in restraints on the stomach capacity of the hen and the minimum requirements of some other things that needed. Then I said the first two questions had been posed to me in a kind of ideological thrust, and I didn't come to talk about ideological economics, I came to talk about scientific economics. I thought there was a bit of, at that time, relationship between ideology and economic thought development in east and west that now people in the east were interested in looking at the tools from the west. The reason was that they hadn't been able to develop and sharpen the tools in the east, and now that they were interested in it, then they should think about scientific economics and not ideological economics. For the rest of this seminar, I was gonna talk about scientific economics, not ideological economics. And with that, many people clapped, and some stood up, and we talked about scientific economics afterwards. So, I think I have gone as a scientist, mostly, to eastern European countries.\r\n\r\n- A lot of the important now, and as you expect, in the future.\r\n\r\n- Well, I'm no expert on food from the seas, as well as not being an expert on some other things. Right at the present time, without more work, it looks like in the next few years our task is more nearly to conserve what we have to keep the rate of output being where it is rather than to be able to extend it. My hope is more nearly on the land than on the sea, at the present time.\r\n\r\n- Well, thank you again, Earl. We have refreshments in front, and I'd like to announce the title of the next Sigma Xi meeting, and that will be the spring lecture on March 29th. Dr. Dwayne Wulner, who's the Casmins Professor of the History of Science from University of Oklahoma. And his title will be Science and Beauty: The Renaissance of Science. And so, we'll see you then. Thank you.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/43687/file/116782#t=0.0,3785.856"}]}]}]}