{"@context":"http://iiif.io/api/presentation/3/context.json","id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/iiif/xs5j96140c/manifest","type":"Manifest","label":{"en":["Martel, Leon, The Next 200 Years"]},"logo":"https://d9jk7wjtjpu5g.cloudfront.net/organizations/logo_images/000/000/004/original/ISULogo.png?1601681107","metadata":[{"label":{"en":["Preferred Citation"]},"value":{"en":["The Next 200 Years. Iowa State University Lecture Series (RS 8/6/53). Special Collections and University Archives, Iowa State University Library, Ames, Iowa."]}},{"label":{"en":["Publisher"]},"value":{"en":["Iowa State University. Special Collections and University Archives"]}},{"label":{"en":["Rights Statement"]},"value":{"en":["There are no restrictions on access. (access)","This item is protected by copyright and/or related rights. You are free to use this item in any way that is permitted by the copyright and related rights legislation that applies to your use. 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committee.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466#t=15.59,18.17"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466/transcript/29814/annotation/3","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"It's my pleasure to introduce to you tonight, Leon C Martel.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466#t=18.17,21.863"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466/transcript/29814/annotation/4","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"Dr. Martel is the executive vice 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president","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466#t=36.52,38.66"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466/transcript/29814/annotation/11","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"and vice president of the United States,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466#t=38.66,41.11"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466/transcript/29814/annotation/12","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"and also various offices of the defense 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studies.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466#t=46.94,50.32"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466/transcript/29814/annotation/15","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"Dr. Martel is also a captain in the U S Naval reserve","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466#t=50.32,54.84"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466/transcript/29814/annotation/16","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"with extensive professional 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book","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466#t=80.9,83.4"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466/transcript/29814/annotation/27","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"called \"Lend, Lease Loans and The Coming of The Cold War\"","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466#t=83.4,87.31"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466/transcript/29814/annotation/28","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"as well as being a coauthor of a book 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tonight.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466#t=94.09,95.91"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466/transcript/29814/annotation/31","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"He has informed me that he'll be speaking for about an hour","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466#t=95.91,99.42"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466/transcript/29814/annotation/32","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"after which he will be very happy to entertain,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466#t=99.42,102.0"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466/transcript/29814/annotation/33","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"15 to 20 minutes of your questions.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466#t=102.0,104.86"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466/transcript/29814/annotation/34","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"So without taking any more of his time,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466#t=104.86,106.81"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466/transcript/29814/annotation/35","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"it's my pleasure to introduce Dr. Martel.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466#t=106.81,109.177"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466/transcript/29814/annotation/36","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"\u003cstrong\u003e Crowd:\u003c/strong\u003e (applauding)","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466#t=109.177,112.427"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466/transcript/29814/annotation/37","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"\u003cstrong\u003e -:\u003c/strong\u003e Thank you very much (murmurs).","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466#t=115.531,118.55"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466/transcript/29814/annotation/38","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"And good evening, ladies and gentlemen.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466#t=118.55,119.72"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466/transcript/29814/annotation/39","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"I've gotta adjust this for normal sized people first.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466#t=119.72,122.373"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466/transcript/29814/annotation/40","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"I'm very happy to be 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yesterday.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466#t=157.36,160.06"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466/transcript/29814/annotation/55","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"A fantasy land on that coast and","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466#t=161.13,163.75"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466/transcript/29814/annotation/56","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"hidebound tradition on the other.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466#t=164.97,166.66"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466/transcript/29814/annotation/57","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"So I'm happy to be back in the heart of the country","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466#t=166.66,169.75"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466/transcript/29814/annotation/58","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"where things are are done right,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466#t=169.75,172.72"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466/transcript/29814/annotation/59","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"and where people do know the difference","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466#t=172.72,174.15"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466/transcript/29814/annotation/60","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"between up and down and right and wrong.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466#t=174.15,176.92"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466/transcript/29814/annotation/61","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"I go back usually back to the East coast","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466#t=176.92,180.22"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466/transcript/29814/annotation/62","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"and say to my colleagues,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466#t=180.22,181.39"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466/transcript/29814/annotation/63","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"well, I've been out in the real world.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466#t=181.39,183.71"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466/transcript/29814/annotation/64","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"You should go out there and see what it's like.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466#t=183.71,186.36"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466/transcript/29814/annotation/65","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"So I'm very happy to be here and to talk to you","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466#t=186.36,188.5"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466/transcript/29814/annotation/66","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"and to talk to you particularly about our view","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466#t=188.5,190.18"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466/transcript/29814/annotation/67","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"of the future.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466#t=190.18,191.41"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466/transcript/29814/annotation/68","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"And it's a rather unique view,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466#t=191.41,192.91"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466/transcript/29814/annotation/69","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"as I think you'll agree","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466#t=194.16,195.4"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466/transcript/29814/annotation/70","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"when we get through here.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466#t=195.4,197.28"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466/transcript/29814/annotation/71","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"I'm still a little anxious though because,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466#t=197.28,199.2"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466/transcript/29814/annotation/72","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"the future has a way of surprising us.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466#t=199.2,202.9"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466/transcript/29814/annotation/73","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"Often times it seems to come up with things that we didn't","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466#t=202.9,206.04"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466/transcript/29814/annotation/74","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"think were, in store that we didn't expect.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466#t=206.04,209.26"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466/transcript/29814/annotation/75","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"In fact, we argue, that a part","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466#t=209.26,212.07"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466/transcript/29814/annotation/76","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"of any good forecast to the future,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466#t=212.07,215.76"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466/transcript/29814/annotation/77","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"is simply to recognize that there will be events occurring","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466#t=215.76,219.58"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466/transcript/29814/annotation/78","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"that will be disruptive to the future,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466#t=220.58,222.63"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466/transcript/29814/annotation/79","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"even though we can't specify what they will be.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466#t=222.63,225.85"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466/transcript/29814/annotation/80","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"And in the last few years, of course","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466#t=225.85,227.33"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466/transcript/29814/annotation/81","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"we've seen several cases to bear that out very well.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466#t=227.33,231.47"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466/transcript/29814/annotation/82","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"There seems an even greater risk in looking at the future.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466#t=231.47,234.66"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466/transcript/29814/annotation/83","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"According to one of my colleagues","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466#t=234.66,236.64"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466/transcript/29814/annotation/84","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"who was recently browsing through the New York state code","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466#t=236.64,240.2"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466/transcript/29814/annotation/85","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"of criminal procedure,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466#t=240.2,241.9"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466/transcript/29814/annotation/86","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"I don't know what he had done to cause him","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466#t=241.9,243.44"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466/transcript/29814/annotation/87","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"to be looking there, but anyway","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466#t=243.44,245.88"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466/transcript/29814/annotation/88","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"while looking there, he found the following rather","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466#t=245.88,248.3"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466/transcript/29814/annotation/89","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"interesting section quote.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466#t=248.3,251.257"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466/transcript/29814/annotation/90","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"\"Persons pretending to forecast the future","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466#t=251.257,253.82"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466/transcript/29814/annotation/91","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"shall be considered disorderly under subdivision three,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466#t=253.82,257.58"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466/transcript/29814/annotation/92","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"section 901 of the criminal code","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466#t=257.58,260.6"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466/transcript/29814/annotation/93","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"and subject to a fine of $250 and six months in prison.\"","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466#t=260.6,265.6"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466/transcript/29814/annotation/94","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"Well, as of this morning anyway","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466#t=266.75,268.07"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466/transcript/29814/annotation/95","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"no one was in prison at the Institute.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466#t=268.07,269.67"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466/transcript/29814/annotation/96","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"So I guess we will take the risk","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466#t=269.67,271.56"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466/transcript/29814/annotation/97","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"and continue our efforts.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466#t=271.56,274.23"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466/transcript/29814/annotation/98","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"And I do want to say at the outset that,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466#t=274.23,276.96"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466/transcript/29814/annotation/99","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"our view of the future of this decade","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466#t=276.96,280.44"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466/transcript/29814/annotation/100","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"and of beyond into the next 200 years","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466#t=280.44,282.53"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466/transcript/29814/annotation/101","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"as a subject of our book and my remarks tonight,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466#t=282.53,286.26"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466/transcript/29814/annotation/102","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"that view is generally optimistic.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466#t=286.26,289.083"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466/transcript/29814/annotation/103","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"The argument is, that we're not over the Hill","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466#t=290.36,292.97"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466/transcript/29814/annotation/104","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"that the path is upward, not downward.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466#t=292.97,296.09"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466/transcript/29814/annotation/105","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"That the good life is still ahead.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466#t=296.09,297.98"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466/transcript/29814/annotation/106","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"And it is still ahead of for more of our people","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466#t=297.98,300.68"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466/transcript/29814/annotation/107","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"and not for less.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466#t=300.68,301.913"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466/transcript/29814/annotation/108","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"Now this is in rather sharp contrast","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466#t=302.82,304.62"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466/transcript/29814/annotation/109","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"with much of the doom and gloom views that we've heard","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466#t=304.62,307.94"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466/transcript/29814/annotation/110","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"over the past 10 to 15 years.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466#t=307.94,310.65"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466/transcript/29814/annotation/111","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"And in fact, really just reiterated","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466#t=310.65,313.06"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466/transcript/29814/annotation/112","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"in what I consider a relatively notorious study","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466#t=314.04,317.43"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466/transcript/29814/annotation/113","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"actually sponsored at the request","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466#t=318.47,320.24"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466/transcript/29814/annotation/114","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"of the president of United 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indeed","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466#t=326.49,330.54"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466/transcript/29814/annotation/117","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"very shoddy and its conclusions I think","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466#t=330.54,333.77"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466/transcript/29814/annotation/118","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"is inappropriate as they are inaccurate.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466#t=333.77,336.21"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466/transcript/29814/annotation/119","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"So the doom and gloom (murmurs) are still very much with us.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466#t=336.21,339.77"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466/transcript/29814/annotation/120","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"We've seen it before in books with 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read","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466#t=345.97,347.67"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466/transcript/29814/annotation/125","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"and widely accepted study of the first study of the club","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466#t=347.67,350.31"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466/transcript/29814/annotation/126","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"of Rome 10 years ago called,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466#t=350.31,351.907"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466/transcript/29814/annotation/127","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"\"The Limits to Growth.\"","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466#t=351.907,353.98"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466/transcript/29814/annotation/128","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"Well to us these studies are a little bit","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466#t=353.98,356.13"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466/transcript/29814/annotation/129","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"like the attitude expressed in O'toole's law.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466#t=356.13,359.21"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466/transcript/29814/annotation/130","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"I'm sure you've all heard of Murphy's 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law,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466#t=365.78,367.08"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466/transcript/29814/annotation/133","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"states that Murphy was an optimist.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466#t=367.08,369.023"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466/transcript/29814/annotation/134","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"And you'll find that we're more 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Tokyo,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466#t=436.03,440.0"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466/transcript/29814/annotation/161","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"and Montreal and a little office in Washington.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466#t=440.0,442.763"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466/transcript/29814/annotation/162","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"We were founded back in 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issues,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466#t=520.67,523.72"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466/transcript/29814/annotation/197","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"pollution, and so forth.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466#t=523.72,525.673"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466/transcript/29814/annotation/198","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"Well out of this work has 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issues.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466#t=543.66,546.853"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466/transcript/29814/annotation/205","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"We put our views forward in this book","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466#t=548.06,550.25"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466/transcript/29814/annotation/206","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"for two reasons principally.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466#t=550.25,552.16"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466/transcript/29814/annotation/207","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"First of all, we believe them.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466#t=552.16,554.34"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466/transcript/29814/annotation/208","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"It's what our studies show us.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466#t=554.34,555.74"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466/transcript/29814/annotation/209","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"If we didn't believe them I think that as a,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466#t=555.74,557.8"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466/transcript/29814/annotation/210","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"non-profit public policy research Institute","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466#t=557.8,560.67"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466/transcript/29814/annotation/211","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"we'd be obliged to say so,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466#t=560.67,562.12"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466/transcript/29814/annotation/212","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"and to recommend the kind of policies","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466#t=562.12,564.33"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466/transcript/29814/annotation/213","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"that would improve the situation.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466#t=564.33,566.25"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466/transcript/29814/annotation/214","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"But we believe in what we're saying.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466#t=566.25,568.48"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466/transcript/29814/annotation/215","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"Secondly, we also believe the doom and gloom views","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466#t=568.48,571.08"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466/transcript/29814/annotation/216","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"are the very opposite","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466#t=571.08,572.45"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466/transcript/29814/annotation/217","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"of what we need to deal with the very important problems","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466#t=572.45,575.33"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466/transcript/29814/annotation/218","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"that we face in the future.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466#t=575.33,577.123"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466/transcript/29814/annotation/219","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"Well, let me present you","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466#t=578.44,580.52"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466/transcript/29814/annotation/220","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"in capsule form this long-term view of the future","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466#t=580.52,584.91"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466/transcript/29814/annotation/221","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"that we've developed in our studies","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466#t=584.91,586.52"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466/transcript/29814/annotation/222","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"and summarized in our book \"The Next 200 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scholars","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466#t=590.32,593.92"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466/transcript/29814/annotation/225","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"to give you some of the evidence for that view.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466#t=593.92,597.23"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466/transcript/29814/annotation/226","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"So you can judge for yourself","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466#t=597.23,599.23"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466/transcript/29814/annotation/227","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"whether we have taken a credible position.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466#t=599.23,601.84"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466/transcript/29814/annotation/228","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"Whether this is a viable forecast of the next 200 years.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466#t=601.84,605.553"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466/transcript/29814/annotation/229","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"And let me begin by,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466#t=607.15,608.563"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466/transcript/29814/annotation/230","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"really it's defending the question","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466#t=610.19,614.09"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466/transcript/29814/annotation/231","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"of taking a long-term view.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466#t=614.09,617.17"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466/transcript/29814/annotation/232","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"And I think it's important to make a couple of","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466#t=617.17,619.73"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466/transcript/29814/annotation/233","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"comments about this because,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466#t=619.73,622.23"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466/transcript/29814/annotation/234","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"so often we're caught up with","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466#t=622.23,625.8"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466/transcript/29814/annotation/235","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"what's going on at the present,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466#t=625.8,627.89"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466/transcript/29814/annotation/236","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"and we take a look at the present and assume that","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466#t=627.89,631.5"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466/transcript/29814/annotation/237","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"it gives us a clear indication of what's gonna happen","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466#t=632.49,634.72"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466/transcript/29814/annotation/238","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"in the future.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466#t=634.72,635.8"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466/transcript/29814/annotation/239","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"And our argument is just the opposite of that.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466#t=635.8,639.17"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466/transcript/29814/annotation/240","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"The normal focus we know is on the short term.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466#t=639.17,641.43"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466/transcript/29814/annotation/241","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"It's the next year, or the next month,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466#t=641.43,643.23"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466/transcript/29814/annotation/242","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"or the next week or...","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466#t=643.23,644.69"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466/transcript/29814/annotation/243","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"I was with a group of security analysts","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466#t=644.69,646.46"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466/transcript/29814/annotation/244","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"a couple of weeks ago.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466#t=646.46,647.39"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466/transcript/29814/annotation/245","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"And they said, what about the next 10 minutes?","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466#t=647.39,649.963"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466/transcript/29814/annotation/246","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"That's the future we have to deal with, the near term.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466#t=650.82,654.07"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466/transcript/29814/annotation/247","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"It's the future we can affect in our lives","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466#t=654.07,656.39"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466/transcript/29814/annotation/248","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"and in our businesses.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466#t=656.39,658.02"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466/transcript/29814/annotation/249","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"We don't have much of a stake","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466#t=658.02,659.39"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466/transcript/29814/annotation/250","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"in the next 200 years or even in the next 50,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466#t=659.39,662.3"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466/transcript/29814/annotation/251","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"in many cases.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466#t=662.3,663.343"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466/transcript/29814/annotation/252","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"But still we argue that the loss of the long term","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466#t=664.46,668.01"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466/transcript/29814/annotation/253","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"perspective can be very costly.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466#t=668.01,670.72"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466/transcript/29814/annotation/254","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"And it can be even fatal,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466#t=670.72,671.87"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466/transcript/29814/annotation/255","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"perhaps to short-term planning.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466#t=671.87,674.14"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466/transcript/29814/annotation/256","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"Because if you focus exclusively on the short term,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466#t=674.14,677.54"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466/transcript/29814/annotation/257","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"you promote the belief that's what's happening now","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466#t=677.54,681.08"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466/transcript/29814/annotation/258","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"is likely to continue in the future.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466#t=681.08,683.053"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466/transcript/29814/annotation/259","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"This planning proceeds in ignorance of what really","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466#t=684.41,686.66"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466/transcript/29814/annotation/260","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"should be the most important input to planning","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466#t=686.66,689.13"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466/transcript/29814/annotation/261","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"that is long-term trends.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466#t=689.13,691.6"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466/transcript/29814/annotation/262","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"And it can be pernicious of course","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466#t=691.6,693.07"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466/transcript/29814/annotation/263","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"in a particular way if what is happening today is not good.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466#t=693.07,696.2"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466/transcript/29814/annotation/264","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"Because if what's happening today is not good,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466#t=696.2,698.21"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466/transcript/29814/annotation/265","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"then your conclusion is,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466#t=698.21,699.54"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466/transcript/29814/annotation/266","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"well things are gonna continue bad.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466#t=699.54,701.3"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466/transcript/29814/annotation/267","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"Perhaps they will get even worse.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466#t=701.3,703.44"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466/transcript/29814/annotation/268","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"Planning on these assumptions","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466#t=703.44,705.06"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466/transcript/29814/annotation/269","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"not only gives you poor guidance","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466#t=705.06,706.86"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466/transcript/29814/annotation/270","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"but we argue it could really be self-fulfilling,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466#t=706.86,710.19"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466/transcript/29814/annotation/271","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"because if you all plan on the basis of","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466#t=710.19,712.98"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466/transcript/29814/annotation/272","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"a worst case analysis,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466#t=712.98,714.99"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466/transcript/29814/annotation/273","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"that's likely to be the case that you'll get.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466#t=714.99,717.24"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466/transcript/29814/annotation/274","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"So there's a powerful argument we believe,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466#t=718.16,720.1"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466/transcript/29814/annotation/275","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"for the longterm view that shows us","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466#t=720.1,722.55"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466/transcript/29814/annotation/276","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"that the fears that we have today,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466#t=722.55,724.24"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466/transcript/29814/annotation/277","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"are just that.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466#t=724.24,725.073"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466/transcript/29814/annotation/278","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"The fears of today and not tomorrow.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466#t=725.073,727.87"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466/transcript/29814/annotation/279","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"It also alerts us to some of the problems that lie ahead","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466#t=727.87,730.93"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466/transcript/29814/annotation/280","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"that may not be visible today or in the near term.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466#t=730.93,734.19"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466/transcript/29814/annotation/281","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"With a long-term view,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466#t=734.19,735.67"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466/transcript/29814/annotation/282","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"we argue that we can face the future with new confidence","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466#t=735.67,739.12"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466/transcript/29814/annotation/283","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"that the apocalypse is not now","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466#t=739.12,741.88"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466/transcript/29814/annotation/284","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"and that we can indeed prepare ourselves better","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466#t=741.88,745.15"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466/transcript/29814/annotation/285","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"for the problems that lie ahead.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466#t=745.15,746.75"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466/transcript/29814/annotation/286","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"Now the long-term view that we've set forth in our studies,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466#t=748.149,751.97"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466/transcript/29814/annotation/287","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"and in the books that I've referred to,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466#t=751.97,754.24"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466/transcript/29814/annotation/288","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"views mankind at the present time","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466#t=754.24,757.98"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466/transcript/29814/annotation/289","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"in the midst of what we call","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466#t=757.98,759.95"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466/transcript/29814/annotation/290","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"a great transition.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466#t=759.95,762.01"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466/transcript/29814/annotation/291","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"A great transition from a pre industrial era,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466#t=762.01,766.51"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466/transcript/29814/annotation/292","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"to eventually a post industrial era.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466#t=766.51,770.65"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466/transcript/29814/annotation/293","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"And let me explain what those terms mean","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466#t=770.65,773.11"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466/transcript/29814/annotation/294","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"and define these eras for you.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466#t=773.11,775.373"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466/transcript/29814/annotation/295","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"This great transition began about 200 years ago","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466#t=777.13,781.05"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466/transcript/29814/annotation/296","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"with the gradual ending of the pre industrial era.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466#t=782.1,785.433"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466/transcript/29814/annotation/297","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"And this transition will continue about 200 years","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466#t=786.46,790.4"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466/transcript/29814/annotation/298","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"into the future, with the beginning","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466#t=790.4,792.96"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466/transcript/29814/annotation/299","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"of the post industrial era,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466#t=792.96,795.04"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466/transcript/29814/annotation/300","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"hence the title of the book and my lecture","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466#t=795.04,797.477"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466/transcript/29814/annotation/301","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"\"The Next 200 Years.\"","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466#t=797.477,799.447"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466/transcript/29814/annotation/302","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"Now this transition has been 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rapidly","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466#t=829.23,831.18"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466/transcript/29814/annotation/313","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"during the last 200 years","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466#t=832.16,834.49"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466/transcript/29814/annotation/314","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"are going to continue to climb,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466#t=834.49,837.053"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466/transcript/29814/annotation/315","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"very rapidly, even more rapidly.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466#t=838.4,841.793"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466/transcript/29814/annotation/316","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"And that leads then to the","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466#t=842.9,844.28"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466/transcript/29814/annotation/317","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"urgent prescriptions to limit growth.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466#t=845.17,848.133"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466/transcript/29814/annotation/318","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"But what is not well understood,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466#t=849.72,851.8"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466/transcript/29814/annotation/319","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"and what our studies show us,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466#t=851.8,854.13"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466/transcript/29814/annotation/320","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"we believe quite 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growth","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466#t=865.37,867.83"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466/transcript/29814/annotation/325","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"will gradually slow.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466#t=867.83,869.91"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466/transcript/29814/annotation/326","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"They will not continue to rise.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466#t=869.91,871.743"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466/transcript/29814/annotation/327","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"And that the growth that does continue as they slow down,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466#t=872.6,877.55"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466/transcript/29814/annotation/328","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"diffused throughout the 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era,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466#t=896.84,899.22"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466/transcript/29814/annotation/335","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"and the beginning of this great transition as we call it,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466#t=899.22,903.54"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466/transcript/29814/annotation/336","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"we find that up till that 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population,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466#t=909.09,910.87"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466/transcript/29814/annotation/339","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"we see that birth rates were high,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466#t=910.87,914.02"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466/transcript/29814/annotation/340","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"but death rates were 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eras.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466#t=1145.451,1149.223"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466/transcript/29814/annotation/417","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"His definition is as follows.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466#t=1150.06,1152.35"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466/transcript/29814/annotation/418","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"Industrial society is organized primarily around energy,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466#t=1152.35,1157.35"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466/transcript/29814/annotation/419","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"and the use of energy.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466#t=1158.1,1160.32"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466/transcript/29814/annotation/420","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"Post-industrial 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(murmurs)","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466#t=1236.4,1238.56"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466/transcript/29814/annotation/451","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"because we appeared to be near","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466#t=1238.56,1241.01"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466/transcript/29814/annotation/452","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"that inflection point I mentioned 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slowing","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466#t=1360.29,1364.22"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466/transcript/29814/annotation/495","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"of rates of economic growth","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466#t=1364.22,1366.4"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466/transcript/29814/annotation/496","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"and also population 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population","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466#t=1377.27,1380.88"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466/transcript/29814/annotation/501","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"of say 10 billion indefinitely into the future","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466#t=1380.88,1384.77"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466/transcript/29814/annotation/502","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"at the very high levels that I've just mentioned","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466#t=1384.77,1388.13"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466/transcript/29814/annotation/503","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"that we expect?","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466#t=1388.13,1389.53"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466/transcript/29814/annotation/504","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"And that's a question of such things as,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466#t=1389.53,1391.83"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466/transcript/29814/annotation/505","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"sufficient energy, sufficient food,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466#t=1391.83,1395.14"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466/transcript/29814/annotation/506","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"adequate or more raw 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clean,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466#t=1399.48,1401.07"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466/transcript/29814/annotation/509","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"to dispose off our waste.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466#t=1401.07,1402.513"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466/transcript/29814/annotation/510","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"Well, we argue,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466#t=1404.75,1405.883"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466/transcript/29814/annotation/511","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"in our book and in our studies,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466#t=1407.03,1408.653"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466/transcript/29814/annotation/512","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"that a consensus can be reached","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466#t=1409.51,1411.69"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466/transcript/29814/annotation/513","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"on the answers to these questions.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466#t=1411.69,1414.61"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466/transcript/29814/annotation/514","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"And furthermore, we argue that we must reach that 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on,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466#t=1422.56,1425.46"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466/transcript/29814/annotation/517","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"with the really uncertain questions of the future.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466#t=1425.46,1428.49"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466/transcript/29814/annotation/518","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"The uncertain questions concerning war and peace,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466#t=1428.49,1431.9"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466/transcript/29814/annotation/519","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"they concern, arms control.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466#t=1431.9,1434.31"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466/transcript/29814/annotation/520","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"They concern the tremendous changes that 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longevity,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466#t=1444.19,1447.34"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466/transcript/29814/annotation/525","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"and so forth.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466#t=1447.34,1448.263"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466/transcript/29814/annotation/526","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"They concern also the possible long-term 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water","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466#t=1454.2,1455.62"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466/transcript/29814/annotation/529","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"but what might happen to this envelope,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466#t=1455.62,1458.26"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466/transcript/29814/annotation/530","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"the envelope that sustains life on this earth.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466#t=1458.26,1460.76"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466/transcript/29814/annotation/531","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"They concern the organization of society,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466#t=1460.76,1463.16"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466/transcript/29814/annotation/532","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"in a world where there are more people","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466#t=1463.16,1465.54"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466/transcript/29814/annotation/533","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"but those people have more power.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466#t=1465.54,1467.85"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466/transcript/29814/annotation/534","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"Those are the great uncertain questions of the future.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466#t=1467.85,1470.27"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466/transcript/29814/annotation/535","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"We don't even see the shape of the consensus today.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466#t=1470.27,1472.74"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466/transcript/29814/annotation/536","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"And so we argue 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boom.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466#t=1490.26,1492.78"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466/transcript/29814/annotation/545","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"And if we're determined that we must really limit growth,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466#t=1492.78,1496.21"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466/transcript/29814/annotation/546","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"that we must now lead lean spare lives.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466#t=1496.21,1500.15"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466/transcript/29814/annotation/547","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"We deprive ourselves of the surplus we need,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466#t=1500.15,1503.61"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466/transcript/29814/annotation/548","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"to get through the ups and downs","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466#t=1503.61,1505.7"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466/transcript/29814/annotation/549","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"that are sure to come.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466#t=1505.7,1507.38"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466/transcript/29814/annotation/550","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"And particularly of course,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466#t=1507.38,1508.61"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466/transcript/29814/annotation/551","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"we deprive those who are at the lowest level,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466#t=1508.61,1511.73"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466/transcript/29814/annotation/552","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"who during those times,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466#t=1511.73,1513.14"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466/transcript/29814/annotation/553","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"would suffer the most.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466#t=1513.14,1514.313"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466/transcript/29814/annotation/554","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"All right, let me set forth the evidence","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466#t=1515.64,1517.01"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466/transcript/29814/annotation/555","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"on these two categories.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466#t=1517.01,1519.0"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466/transcript/29814/annotation/556","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"The evidence first for the slowing","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466#t=1519.0,1521.12"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466/transcript/29814/annotation/557","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"of these two major growth rates.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466#t=1521.12,1522.85"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466/transcript/29814/annotation/558","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"Economic growth and population.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466#t=1522.85,1524.83"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466/transcript/29814/annotation/559","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"And then the evidence for adequate resources,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466#t=1524.83,1527.82"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466/transcript/29814/annotation/560","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"to support that enlarged but stable population","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466#t=1527.82,1531.84"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466/transcript/29814/annotation/561","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"indefinitely in the future.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466#t=1531.84,1534.06"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466/transcript/29814/annotation/562","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"And so let me turn then first to economic growth.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466#t=1534.06,1537.433"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466/transcript/29814/annotation/563","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"Now the argument here,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466#t=1538.99,1540.98"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466/transcript/29814/annotation/564","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"is that economic growth is slowing worldwide","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466#t=1540.98,1545.45"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466/transcript/29814/annotation/565","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"and will continue to slow,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466#t=1545.45,1547.023"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466/transcript/29814/annotation/566","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"not because of limitations on supply,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466#t=1548.41,1552.28"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466/transcript/29814/annotation/567","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"not because we're running out of things","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466#t=1552.28,1554.25"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466/transcript/29814/annotation/568","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"as the limits to growth advocates would say,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466#t=1554.25,1556.59"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466/transcript/29814/annotation/569","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"or the Neo Malthusians you might call them.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466#t=1556.59,1559.69"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466/transcript/29814/annotation/570","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"But instead economic growth is slowing,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466#t=1559.69,1562.72"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466/transcript/29814/annotation/571","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"because of limitations on demand.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466#t=1562.72,1565.693"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466/transcript/29814/annotation/572","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"And let me explain this.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466#t=1566.61,1567.78"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466/transcript/29814/annotation/573","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"There are a number of reasons that we believe","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466#t=1567.78,1570.15"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466/transcript/29814/annotation/574","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"support this position.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466#t=1570.15,1573.29"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466/transcript/29814/annotation/575","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"First of all, there's a basic economic reason","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466#t=1573.29,1576.09"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466/transcript/29814/annotation/576","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"and it's rooted in the way economies change","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466#t=1576.09,1579.33"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466/transcript/29814/annotation/577","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"as societies develop.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466#t=1579.33,1581.253"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466/transcript/29814/annotation/578","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"We note, and this is not just unique","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466#t=1582.56,1584.48"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466/transcript/29814/annotation/579","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"with our studies, for example,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466#t=1584.48,1586.39"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466/transcript/29814/annotation/580","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"Professor Simon Kuznets at Harvard and others","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466#t=1586.39,1588.83"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466/transcript/29814/annotation/581","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"who have looked at national development","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466#t=1588.83,1590.81"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466/transcript/29814/annotation/582","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"support this as well.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466#t=1590.81,1592.27"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466/transcript/29814/annotation/583","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"We noticed that as societies mature and develop,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466#t=1592.27,1596.007"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466/transcript/29814/annotation/584","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"the service sector activities","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466#t=1596.007,1599.08"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466/transcript/29814/annotation/585","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"tend to dominate their economies.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466#t=1599.08,1601.56"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466/transcript/29814/annotation/586","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"You could look today at the United States, for example.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466#t=1601.56,1603.62"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466/transcript/29814/annotation/587","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"new entrance into the labor market.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466#t=1603.62,1606.28"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466/transcript/29814/annotation/588","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"And number of people entering the labor market","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466#t=1606.28,1608.56"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466/transcript/29814/annotation/589","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"continues to increase in this country,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466#t=1608.56,1610.68"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466/transcript/29814/annotation/590","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"but the number who are in the agricultural areas","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466#t=1610.68,1614.53"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466/transcript/29814/annotation/591","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"or in the manufacturing areas has been stable","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466#t=1614.53,1617.17"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466/transcript/29814/annotation/592","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"now for several years.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466#t=1617.17,1618.68"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466/transcript/29814/annotation/593","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"The increase is taking place in the service sector areas.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466#t=1618.68,1623.03"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466/transcript/29814/annotation/594","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"And this is true of all societies","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466#t=1623.03,1624.96"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466/transcript/29814/annotation/595","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"that have matured and developed to the extent that","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466#t=1624.96,1627.75"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466/transcript/29814/annotation/596","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"ours have or even to a lesser extent.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466#t=1627.75,1630.04"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466/transcript/29814/annotation/597","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"So as societies mature and develop,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466#t=1630.04,1631.69"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466/transcript/29814/annotation/598","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"service sector activities tend to dominate their economies.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466#t=1631.69,1636.4"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466/transcript/29814/annotation/599","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"Now, many of these service sector activities","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466#t=1636.4,1638.99"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466/transcript/29814/annotation/600","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"do increase productivity","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466#t=1638.99,1641.2"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466/transcript/29814/annotation/601","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"and do contribute to growth.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466#t=1641.2,1642.6"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466/transcript/29814/annotation/602","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"If you put computers in banks,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466#t=1642.6,1644.6"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466/transcript/29814/annotation/603","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"that service activity,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466#t=1644.6,1646.19"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466/transcript/29814/annotation/604","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"you will increase productivity in those banks.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466#t=1646.19,1648.54"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466/transcript/29814/annotation/605","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"You put in the retail trade industry,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466#t=1648.54,1650.2"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466/transcript/29814/annotation/606","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"there are a number of developments that can","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466#t=1650.2,1652.59"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466/transcript/29814/annotation/607","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"increase productivity and growth.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466#t=1652.59,1654.83"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466/transcript/29814/annotation/608","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"But a large number of these service sector 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growth","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466#t=1819.773,1823.063"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466/transcript/29814/annotation/671","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"that we argue is occurring in the great transition.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466#t=1823.063,1826.823"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466/transcript/29814/annotation/672","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"Now what about the other growth rate?","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466#t=1828.29,1830.25"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466/transcript/29814/annotation/673","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"Population growth rate?","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466#t=1830.25,1831.703"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466/transcript/29814/annotation/674","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"Well again, this rate is slowing","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466#t=1833.38,1835.74"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466/transcript/29814/annotation/675","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"not for the reasons set down by","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466#t=1835.74,1838.51"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466/transcript/29814/annotation/676","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"the followers of Thomas Malthus and the doomsayers","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466#t=1838.51,1841.62"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466/transcript/29814/annotation/677","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"and bloomsayers for they believe,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466#t=1841.62,1843.88"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466/transcript/29814/annotation/678","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"that it was famine and disease","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466#t=1843.88,1846.1"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466/transcript/29814/annotation/679","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"that would finally decimate populations","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466#t=1846.1,1848.11"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466/transcript/29814/annotation/680","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"and cause populations to slow","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466#t=1848.11,1851.185"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466/transcript/29814/annotation/681","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"after they'd grown as far as they could.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466#t=1851.185,1854.083"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466/transcript/29814/annotation/682","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"These conditions are serious in many areas.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466#t=1855.0,1857.49"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466/transcript/29814/annotation/683","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"And at many times, Cambodia today, for example","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466#t=1857.49,1861.28"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466/transcript/29814/annotation/684","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"but, the population growth rate","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466#t=1861.28,1864.93"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466/transcript/29814/annotation/685","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"is not slowing because of famine and disease.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466#t=1864.93,1868.35"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466/transcript/29814/annotation/686","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"It's slowing principally for socioeconomic reasons.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466#t=1868.35,1872.91"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466/transcript/29814/annotation/687","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"And in many important cases","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466#t=1872.91,1875.08"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466/transcript/29814/annotation/688","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"because of deliberate public policy measures.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466#t=1875.08,1877.943"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466/transcript/29814/annotation/689","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"We find that with development,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466#t=1879.24,1881.24"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466/transcript/29814/annotation/690","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"and with prosperity,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466#t=1881.24,1883.24"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466/transcript/29814/annotation/691","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"comes a decision, for smaller families,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466#t=1883.24,1886.78"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466/transcript/29814/annotation/692","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"for less children.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466#t=1886.78,1887.923"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466/transcript/29814/annotation/693","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"To put it in a very simple way,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466#t=1890.37,1893.22"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466/transcript/29814/annotation/694","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"the role of children,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466#t=1893.22,1894.88"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466/transcript/29814/annotation/695","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"changes from being producers goods.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466#t=1894.88,1898.0"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466/transcript/29814/annotation/696","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"That is you wanna have more of them,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466#t=1898.0,1899.64"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466/transcript/29814/annotation/697","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"because they're not all going to survive childbirth","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466#t=1899.64,1902.45"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466/transcript/29814/annotation/698","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"and the early years of infancy and childhood.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466#t=1902.45,1905.65"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466/transcript/29814/annotation/699","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"And because you want them,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466#t=1905.65,1906.96"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466/transcript/29814/annotation/700","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"to take care of you in your old age,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466#t=1906.96,1908.73"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466/transcript/29814/annotation/701","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"they changed from being produced as goods","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466#t=1908.73,1910.45"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466/transcript/29814/annotation/702","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"in that sense, to being consumers goods.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466#t=1910.45,1913.57"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466/transcript/29814/annotation/703","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"They take more of your time,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466#t=1913.57,1915.03"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466/transcript/29814/annotation/704","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"more of your attention,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466#t=1915.03,1915.88"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466/transcript/29814/annotation/705","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"more of your resources.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466#t=1915.88,1917.145"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466/transcript/29814/annotation/706","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"And you wanna give them more.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466#t=1917.145,1918.86"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466/transcript/29814/annotation/707","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"And you wanna have more for yourself as well.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466#t=1918.86,1921.193"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466/transcript/29814/annotation/708","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"And you have today,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466#t=1922.45,1924.1"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466/transcript/29814/annotation/709","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"Social security, Medicare","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466#t=1924.1,1927.0"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466/transcript/29814/annotation/710","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"other kinds of provisions for your old age.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466#t=1927.0,1930.09"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466/transcript/29814/annotation/711","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"You don't have to depend upon your children.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466#t=1930.09,1933.2"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466/transcript/29814/annotation/712","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"And so...","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466#t=1933.2,1934.14"}]},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466/transcript/29814","type":"AnnotationPage","label":{"en":["English [Transcript]"]},"items":[{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466/transcript/29814/annotation/713","type":"Annotation","motivation":"subtitling","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"https://d9jk7wjtjpu5g.cloudfront.net/file_transcripts/associated_files/000/029/814/original/AV168174_The_Next_200_Years_b.vtt?1624894822","format":"text/vtt","language":"en"},"target":"https://d9jk7wjtjpu5g.cloudfront.net/file_transcripts/associated_files/000/029/814/original/AV168174_The_Next_200_Years_b.vtt?1624894822"}]},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466/transcript/29815","type":"AnnotationPage","label":{"en":["AV168174_The_Next_200_Years_b.txt [Transcript]"]},"items":[{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466/transcript/29815/annotation/714","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"- On behalf of the Institute on world affairs and the university's lectures committee. It's my pleasure to introduce to you tonight, Leon C Martel. Dr. Martel is the executive vice president of the Hudson Institute. And he's also the director of the Institute's research management council. He's been at Hudson's since 1974, where he's been the project leader for studies for the offices of the president and vice president of the United States, and also various offices of the defense department. He's a political scientist who has specialized in international relations and also in Russian studies. Dr. Martel is also a captain in the U S Naval reserve with extensive professional experience in the fields of political and military intelligence. While on active duty, he was in charge of the Russian and East European desk, in the Navy's European intelligence center. And later served as an intelligence analyst for the national security agency. He holds a BA from Dartmouth college, and an MA PhD, and a certificate of the Russian Institute from Columbia University. He's also the author of the recently published book called \"Lend, Lease Loans and The Coming of The Cold War\" as well as being a coauthor of a book called \"The Next 200 years\" which is also the topic of his talk tonight. He has informed me that he'll be speaking for about an hour after which he will be very happy to entertain, 15 to 20 minutes of your questions. So without taking any more of his time, it's my pleasure to introduce Dr. Martel.\r\n\r\n- Thank you very much . And good evening, ladies and gentlemen. I've gotta adjust this for normal sized people first. I'm very happy to be here. And I'm particularly honored to, be the opening speaker on the brain roasting program that I see you have for your week on Institute and world affairs. I'm happy to be here for another reason too I should add. It seems that I spend most of my time on one coast or the other and the Atlantic coast it seems that, the only worthwhile things we'd done over a hundred years ago particularly the ideas on the other coast. It seems like the only growth worthwhile things of the people think of worthwhile were done yesterday. A fantasy land on that coast and hidebound tradition on the other. So I'm happy to be back in the heart of the country where things are are done right, and where people do know the difference between up and down and right and wrong. I go back usually back to the East coast and say to my colleagues, well, I've been out in the real world. You should go out there and see what it's like. So I'm very happy to be here and to talk to you and to talk to you particularly about our view of the future. And it's a rather unique view, as I think you'll agree when we get through here. I'm still a little anxious though because, the future has a way of surprising us. Often times it seems to come up with things that we didn't think were, in store that we didn't expect. In fact, we argue, that a part of any good forecast to the future, is simply to recognize that there will be events occurring that will be disruptive to the future, even though we can't specify what they will be. And in the last few years, of course we've seen several cases to bear that out very well. There seems an even greater risk in looking at the future. According to one of my colleagues who was recently browsing through the New York state code of criminal procedure, I don't know what he had done to cause him to be looking there, but anyway while looking there, he found the following rather interesting section quote. \"Persons pretending to forecast the future shall be considered disorderly under subdivision three, section 901 of the criminal code and subject to a fine of $250 and six months in prison.\" Well, as of this morning anyway no one was in prison at the Institute. So I guess we will take the risk and continue our efforts. And I do want to say at the outset that, our view of the future of this decade and of beyond into the next 200 years as a subject of our book and my remarks tonight, that view is generally optimistic. The argument is, that we're not over the Hill that the path is upward, not downward. That the good life is still ahead. And it is still ahead of for more of our people and not for less. Now this is in rather sharp contrast with much of the doom and gloom views that we've heard over the past 10 to 15 years. And in fact, really just reiterated in what I consider a relatively notorious study actually sponsored at the request of the president of United States, the global 2000 report which just released this past summer. Which in its methodology, and its research effort is indeed very shoddy and its conclusions I think is inappropriate as they are inaccurate. So the doom and gloom are still very much with us. We've seen it before in books with titles like \"This Endangered Planet,\" \"The Coming Dark Age,\" \"The End of the American Era,\" and particularly the very widely read and widely accepted study of the first study of the club of Rome 10 years ago called, \"The Limits to Growth.\" Well to us these studies are a little bit like the attitude expressed in O'toole's law. I'm sure you've all heard of Murphy's law. Murphy's law states that if something can go wrong, it will. Well, O'toole's law, states that Murphy was an optimist. And you'll find that we're more optimistic than both Murphy and O'Toole. The key to this forecast quite in contrast with the views of the doomsayers and the gloomsayers and those that are just to limit growth. The key to this forecast is that growth is necessary. And that growth is indeed possible. And so, that is one of the themes that you're hearing me develop here tonight. I should perhaps say a little bit first about the Institute because people often wonder what Hudson Institute is. And it is what's powerfully known as a think tank, public policy research organization, a nonprofit one. We have our main office in Croton, New York on the banks of the Hudson river, hence the name Hudson Institute about 35 miles North of New York city. Very, very pleasant grounds. We call it a campus in fact. At 22 acres of land and seven buildings it used to be a drying out spa for wealthy alcoholics. Some people think it still is, but that's a misnomer. We have offices also in Paris and Tokyo, and Montreal and a little office in Washington. We were founded back in 1961 by a man that some of you may have heard of, Herman Kahn. And Herman Kahn made his reputation first, as a defense analyst. Wrote a very famous book called \"On Thermonuclear War\" and a book with an even more famous title following that book called, \"Thinking About The Unthinkable.\" And I suppose that we like to think at Hudson, that when we're doing our best work we're following the precept of that title, thinking about the unthinkable. For six or seven years, Hudson Institute was involved principally in defense studies for the government. But in 1967, Herman Kahn took on the assignment from the commission on the year 2000 to write the central book of that commission. And out of that came the book entitled, \"The Year 2000.\" A very large Tom, which attempted to take a look at all of the great trends of history, where they had brought us where they were taking us in the future. And it became a landmark book in futurology studies. Marked him as a futurist and made the Hudson Institute a futurology Institute along with our defense studies work. So today we're about one third in defense studies and about two thirds in studies that would fall under the general heading of futurology, long range forecasting and economics issues, resource issues, population, food issues, pollution, and so forth. Well out of this work has come the book that was referred to \"The Next 200 Years\" which is intended to be a summary of some of the studies that we've been undertaking over the past decade, decade and a half on these long range forecasting issues. We put our views forward in this book for two reasons principally. First of all, we believe them. It's what our studies show us. If we didn't believe them I think that as a, non-profit public policy research Institute we'd be obliged to say so, and to recommend the kind of policies that would improve the situation. But we believe in what we're saying. Secondly, we also believe the doom and gloom views are the very opposite of what we need to deal with the very important problems that we face in the future. Well, let me present you in capsule form this long-term view of the future that we've developed in our studies and summarized in our book \"The Next 200 Years\" and at the same time, because you're students and scholars to give you some of the evidence for that view. So you can judge for yourself whether we have taken a credible position. Whether this is a viable forecast of the next 200 years. And let me begin by, really it's defending the question of taking a long-term view. And I think it's important to make a couple of comments about this because, so often we're caught up with what's going on at the present, and we take a look at the present and assume that it gives us a clear indication of what's gonna happen in the future. And our argument is just the opposite of that. The normal focus we know is on the short term. It's the next year, or the next month, or the next week or... I was with a group of security analysts a couple of weeks ago. And they said, what about the next 10 minutes? That's the future we have to deal with, the near term. It's the future we can affect in our lives and in our businesses. We don't have much of a stake in the next 200 years or even in the next 50, in many cases. But still we argue that the loss of the long term perspective can be very costly. And it can be even fatal, perhaps to short-term planning. Because if you focus exclusively on the short term, you promote the belief that's what's happening now is likely to continue in the future. This planning proceeds in ignorance of what really should be the most important input to planning that is long-term trends. And it can be pernicious of course in a particular way if what is happening today is not good. Because if what's happening today is not good, then your conclusion is, well things are gonna continue bad. Perhaps they will get even worse. Planning on these assumptions not only gives you poor guidance but we argue it could really be self-fulfilling, because if you all plan on the basis of a worst case analysis, that's likely to be the case that you'll get. So there's a powerful argument we believe, for the longterm view that shows us that the fears that we have today, are just that. The fears of today and not tomorrow. It also alerts us to some of the problems that lie ahead that may not be visible today or in the near term. With a long-term view, we argue that we can face the future with new confidence that the apocalypse is not now and that we can indeed prepare ourselves better for the problems that lie ahead. Now the long-term view that we've set forth in our studies, and in the books that I've referred to, views mankind at the present time in the midst of what we call a great transition. A great transition from a pre industrial era, to eventually a post industrial era. And let me explain what those terms mean and define these eras for you. This great transition began about 200 years ago with the gradual ending of the pre industrial era. And this transition will continue about 200 years into the future, with the beginning of the post industrial era, hence the title of the book and my lecture \"The Next 200 Years.\" Now this transition has been characterized in its first 200 years. The 200 years just passed by a very rapid increase in two rates of growth. These are rates of population growth, and rates of growth of economic product. Now the difficulty is, that the doomsayers and the gloom Sayers and those who just limit growth, have assumed that these rates, which have been climbing very rapidly during the last 200 years are going to continue to climb, very rapidly, even more rapidly. And that leads then to the urgent prescriptions to limit growth. But what is not well understood, and what our studies show us, we believe quite convincingly, is that during the second 200 years, the next 200 years of this transition, these rates which have been growing so rapidly, population and economic growth will gradually slow. They will not continue to rise. And that the growth that does continue as they slow down, diffused throughout the world will bring material wellbeing and a high standard of living to most of the world's people. Let me give you some benchmarks to sort of illustrate the point that we're trying to make here. If we look back 200 years at the end of the pre-industrial era, and the beginning of this great transition as we call it, we find that up till that time, economic product was growing very slowly. If you look at population, we see that birth rates were high, but death rates were high. And so the population was relatively stable. It went up and down. Famine, plagues, disasters of that kind. But it was over time until 200 years ago growing on very, very slowly. In 1775, it's been estimated that there were about 750 million people on earth. And if you could calculate their gross world product at that time in current dollars, it would work out to about $150 billion. And if you make the division, that comes out to about $200 per capita. $200 per capita in current dollars, 200 years ago. Then as we began to move up this great transition, as we began the industrial era, we began to utilize resources. We changed from animate to inanimate forms of energy. Our economic product began to grow rapidly. Birth rates were still very high, but because of better food distribution, better disease control, better public health measures, death rates were falling. And so that meant with high birth rates and low death rates, it meant the population increased very rapidly. In fact, increased at exponential rates in the first half of the century doubling in shorter and shorter periods of time. So that in 1975, we had about 4 billion plus people on earth, their gross world product around $7 trillion. And this works out to $1,800 per capita. About nine times what it was 200 years before at the start of the era of industrialization. We argue now, and I'll give you the evidence for this in a moment. We argued out that we are passing through the inflection point in this great curve. That is that point which marks the highest rate of growth and the beginning of the slowing of that rate of growth. So that from now on, economic growth will increase more slowly and not more rapidly. And that birth rates will fall until finally they will be, at about the same level as death rates and population will eventually be stabilized. And when we achieve this eventual stabilization of population and relative stabilization of economic growth rates, we will be moving into the post industrial era 200 years from now. Now the term requires a little definition, post industrial, because we don't mean that there'll be no more industrial activity. It will certainly continue. But it will be accomplished by a relatively small percentage of our total work force. And it will occupy a relativity small percentage of our total economic activity. Just as 200 years ago, we had about 90% of our people involved in agriculture. Today we have about 4% of our workforce in agriculture and they've produced enough for this country but for conservable export as well. Well, in the same way, perhaps not with the same figures but in the same way, a smaller number, smaller percentage of our workforce will take care of all of our manufacturing, construction and industrial activity. And it will occupy a relatively small portion of our economic effort. The distinction made by Daniel Bell I think is a very good one between the industrial and the post-industrial eras. His definition is as follows. Industrial society is organized primarily around energy, and the use of energy. Post-industrial society, will be organized around information and the use of information to guide society. And so 200 years from now, as this great transition is completed, as we move into the post-industrial era, we would argue that very roughly speaking, these are obviously just ballpark figures. We would have about 10 billion people on earth. About little less than two and a half times what we have today, and that their gross world product again in contemporary dollars would be about $200 trillion. And if you do the division that comes out to $20,000 per capita, or about a hundred times what it was 200 years ago. So we've gone from $200 per capita, to $1,800 per capita, to $20,000 per capita. Nine times as much, now a hundred times as much, a hundred years, 200 years from now. In this perspective then, this great transition as we call it, is the most important app arc in all of human history. And these years now, the decades of the seventies and the eighties and the nineties, are the most important years of that because we appeared to be near that inflection point I mentioned before, in this great transition. That moment of the highest rate of growth and the slowing of those rates of growth. In this perspective then, the problems that are associated with growth the problems that are regarded so urgent by the doomsayers and the gloomsayers, the problems of those that just limit growth are really transitory problems. They're temporary problems. They're problems of a time between tenure and a time of prosperity. And the very first sentence of our book, the next 200 years we sum up the thesis in this, with these words. The scenario elaborated and tested in this book can be summarized with the general statement that 200 years ago, almost everywhere human beings were comparatively few, poor, and at the mercy of the forces of nature. 200 years from now, we expect, almost everywhere, there will be numerous rich and in control of the forces of nature. All right, that's the description then of this great transition from 200 years ago to 200 years from now. A transition that depends upon continued growth but is characterized by a slowing of that growth. A transition that leads to a leveling off, of population, at a higher number, total number than today, perhaps 10 billion. But a population that will live far more affluently, prosperously worldwide than exists today. All right, what's the evidence then for this for this view of the future? And the evidence I think, falls into two categories. First I think we have to put forth the evidence for the slowing down. How can we show, that there will be a slowing of rates of economic growth and also population growth. And secondly, I think there's another category of evidence that has to be discussed, and that is will we have adequate resources to take care of even this stabilized population of say 10 billion indefinitely into the future at the very high levels that I've just mentioned that we expect? And that's a question of such things as, sufficient energy, sufficient food, adequate or more raw materials and the ability to maintain our environment to keep our air and water clean, to dispose off our waste. Well, we argue, in our book and in our studies, that a consensus can be reached on the answers to these questions. And furthermore, we argue that we must reach that consensus. That that is a very urgent activity today, so that we will be able to get on, with the really uncertain questions of the future. The uncertain questions concerning war and peace, they concern, arms control. They concern the tremendous changes that technology is bringing about, and will bring about in our ability to deal with our own bodies in terms of repair, maintenance, longevity, and so forth. They concern also the possible long-term damage to our environment. Not just clean air and clean water but what might happen to this envelope, the envelope that sustains life on this earth. They concern the organization of society, in a world where there are more people but those people have more power. Those are the great uncertain questions of the future. We don't even see the shape of the consensus today. And so we argue first, we need to reach a consensus on these growth issues so we can turn our attention and our resources to the uncertain problems of the future. And second, we also argue, that we need the surplus to get us through the times of ups and downs. We're going to have times of recession, as well as times of boom. And if we're determined that we must really limit growth, that we must now lead lean spare lives. We deprive ourselves of the surplus we need, to get through the ups and downs that are sure to come. And particularly of course, we deprive those who are at the lowest level, who during those times, would suffer the most. All right, let me set forth the evidence on these two categories. The evidence first for the slowing of these two major growth rates. Economic growth and population. And then the evidence for adequate resources, to support that enlarged but stable population indefinitely in the future. And so let me turn then first to economic growth. Now the argument here, is that economic growth is slowing worldwide and will continue to slow, not because of limitations on supply, not because we're running out of things as the limits to growth advocates would say, or the Neo Malthusians you might call them. But instead economic growth is slowing, because of limitations on demand. And let me explain this. There are a number of reasons that we believe support this position. First of all, there's a basic economic reason and it's rooted in the way economies change as societies develop. We note, and this is not just unique with our studies, for example, Professor Simon Kuznets at Harvard and others who have looked at national development support this as well. We noticed that as societies mature and develop, the service sector activities tend to dominate their economies. You could look today at the United States, for example. new entrance into the labor market. And number of people entering the labor market continues to increase in this country, but the number who are in the agricultural areas or in the manufacturing areas has been stable now for several years. The increase is taking place in the service sector areas. And this is true of all societies that have matured and developed to the extent that ours have or even to a lesser extent. So as societies mature and develop, service sector activities tend to dominate their economies. Now, many of these service sector activities do increase productivity and do contribute to growth. If you put computers in banks, that service activity, you will increase productivity in those banks. You put in the retail trade industry, there are a number of developments that can increase productivity and growth. But a large number of these service sector activities do not add to growth. Government is everybody's favorite example as an activity that doesn't add to growth. But even more important, are services that are done for their own sake. Sports, games, hobbies, reading, writing, hunting, fishing, gourmet cooking, activities of that kind. And this is the fastest growing area now of service sector activities in the advanced developed nations. So there's a built in dampening on rates of economic growth, as our economy matures, and as the service sectors become more dominant. In addition, there are some very important non-economic reasons for the slowing of growth. One is simply that with affluence, with prosperity, it comes a desire to preserve the status quo. If you attain a certain level, your interest changes, your emphasis shifts from attaining more to protecting what you have. And so you become increasingly concerned with health, with comfort, with safety. There is a general recognition that having a power plant, or an airport, or a super highway nearby is helpful, but not in my backyard please not nearby. And so then there is a restriction, on activities that tend to threaten these goals of health and comfort and safety. It used to be in this country that the sign of a smokestack and belching black smoke was a sign of progress. The sign of growth. Now it's a sign of pollution, and a sign of potential hazards to our health. Increasingly these desires for health, comfort and safety, are translated into laws and into regulations And they do very often improve health, comfort and safety. The new laws in the mines, for example have improved safety in the mines. But they also require expenditures. They require the diversion of funds, that are not then available for a new plant and other development. And that too dampens growth. And finally attitudes grow, that emphasize the immediate self and direct satisfaction, rather than satisfaction as a byproduct of other activities. And these diminish the force of the work ethic, the advancement ethic. And so they further contribute to a slowing of growth. So for these various reasons then, economic and non-economic, we argue in our studies, that there is a slowing of economic growth as a society develops and matures. And this slowing explains, and makes inevitable, the turnover and the rate of economic growth that we argue is occurring in the great transition. Now what about the other growth rate? Population growth rate? Well again, this rate is slowing not for the reasons set down by the followers of Thomas Malthus and the doomsayers and bloomsayers for they believe, that it was famine and disease that would finally decimate populations and cause populations to slow after they'd grown as far as they could. These conditions are serious in many areas. And at many times, Cambodia today, for example but, the population growth rate is not slowing because of famine and disease. It's slowing principally for socioeconomic reasons. And in many important cases because of deliberate public policy measures. We find that with development, and with prosperity, comes a decision, for smaller families, for less children. To put it in a very simple way, the role of children, changes from being producers goods. That is you wanna have more of them, because they're not all going to survive childbirth and the early years of infancy and childhood. And because you want them, to take care of you in your old age, they changed from being produced as goods in that sense, to being consumers goods. They take more of your time, more of your attention, more of your resources. And you wanna give them more. And you wanna have more for yourself as well. And you have today, Social security, Medicare other kinds of provisions for your old age. You don't have to depend upon your children. And so...","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/118466#t=0.0,1941.31592"}]}]},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853","type":"Canvas","label":{"en":["Media File 2 of 2 - 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[Transcript]"]},"items":[{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853/transcript/73967/annotation/1","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"\u003cstrong\u003e-:\u003c/strong\u003e I remember when we first put together","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853#t=12.0,13.451"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853/transcript/73967/annotation/2","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"the population data for our book,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853#t=13.451,16.37"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853/transcript/73967/annotation/3","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"it was back in 1975.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853#t=16.37,18.6"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853/transcript/73967/annotation/4","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"And we looked at the statistics available","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853#t=18.6,20.81"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853/transcript/73967/annotation/5","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"from the United nations","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853#t=20.81,22.02"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853/transcript/73967/annotation/6","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"and from other population groups","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853#t=22.02,24.6"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853/transcript/73967/annotation/7","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"that gathered this data.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853#t=24.6,26.83"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853/transcript/73967/annotation/8","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"And it appeared at the time that inflection point","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853#t=26.83,31.83"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853/transcript/73967/annotation/9","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"the moment when the population growth rate began to slow,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853#t=31.9,34.54"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853/transcript/73967/annotation/10","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"was gonna occur in 1975.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853#t=34.54,36.73"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853/transcript/73967/annotation/11","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"The year we were writing our book.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853#t=36.73,39.6"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853/transcript/73967/annotation/12","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"And I remember Herman Kahn,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853#t=39.6,40.74"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853/transcript/73967/annotation/13","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"who is a big huge fellow","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853#t=40.74,43.33"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853/transcript/73967/annotation/14","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"you've may have seen him on TV, 350 pounds.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853#t=43.33,45.82"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853/transcript/73967/annotation/15","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"He wears an average beard around his chin,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853#t=45.82,48.31"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853/transcript/73967/annotation/16","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"sitting in his office,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853#t=48.31,49.28"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853/transcript/73967/annotation/17","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"and he's a bit of a Patriot than a nationalist,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853#t=49.28,51.21"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853/transcript/73967/annotation/18","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"sitting in his office there","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853#t=51.21,52.66"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853/transcript/73967/annotation/19","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"and ruefully shaking his head","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853#t=52.66,54.934"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853/transcript/73967/annotation/20","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"that inflection point could not occur","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853#t=54.934,59.37"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853/transcript/73967/annotation/21","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"in 1976.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853#t=59.37,60.887"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853/transcript/73967/annotation/22","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"The year of the American bicentennial.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853#t=60.887,63.25"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853/transcript/73967/annotation/23","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"And then suddenly his eyes lit up","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853#t=63.25,64.74"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853/transcript/73967/annotation/24","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"and he suggested a new public policy program","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853#t=64.74,67.39"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853/transcript/73967/annotation/25","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"for Hudson Institute called SEX in 75.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853#t=67.39,70.57"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853/transcript/73967/annotation/26","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"We all go out and do a bit that year.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853#t=70.57,72.187"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853/transcript/73967/annotation/27","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"And we try to push the inflection point up one year","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853#t=72.187,75.27"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853/transcript/73967/annotation/28","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"to 1976, the year of the American bicentennial.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853#t=75.27,79.18"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853/transcript/73967/annotation/29","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"Well, we would have been way off because as we got more data","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853#t=79.18,83.71"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853/transcript/73967/annotation/30","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"and this of course is an area that's very subject","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853#t=83.71,86.24"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853/transcript/73967/annotation/31","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"to the quality of the data and the amount that you get.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853#t=86.24,89.43"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853/transcript/73967/annotation/32","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"We discovered that the inflection point","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853#t=89.43,91.74"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853/transcript/73967/annotation/33","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"had occurred even earlier probably in 1965.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853#t=91.74,95.99"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853/transcript/73967/annotation/34","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"And so it seems that we are headed inevitably","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853#t=95.99,98.76"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853/transcript/73967/annotation/35","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"toward eventual zero growth and a stabilized population.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853#t=98.76,103.083"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853/transcript/73967/annotation/36","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"Now, this is a great moment in human history.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853#t=104.32,107.16"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853/transcript/73967/annotation/37","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"It may be the greatest event in the history of the planet.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853#t=107.16,111.26"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853/transcript/73967/annotation/38","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"We have turned a great corner.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853#t=111.26,113.24"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853/transcript/73967/annotation/39","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"We will not turn back.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853#t=113.24,114.99"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853/transcript/73967/annotation/40","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"And yet still I think,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853#t=114.99,116.383"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853/transcript/73967/annotation/41","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"still it is gone almost unnoticed by the educated public.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853#t=117.475,121.77"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853/transcript/73967/annotation/42","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"And you can find people,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853#t=121.77,123.13"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853/transcript/73967/annotation/43","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"people who should know much better getting up","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853#t=123.13,125.76"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853/transcript/73967/annotation/44","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"and talking about the exponential population growth,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853#t=125.76,129.13"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853/transcript/73967/annotation/45","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"the population bomb,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853#t=129.13,130.72"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853/transcript/73967/annotation/46","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"talking about the 10 billion people that we're gonna have","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853#t=130.72,133.73"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853/transcript/73967/annotation/47","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"by the end of this year","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853#t=133.73,134.77"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853/transcript/73967/annotation/48","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"Or if you read the global 2000 report for the president,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853#t=134.77,138.68"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853/transcript/73967/annotation/49","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"the 30 billion people we're gonna have next century.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853#t=138.68,142.1"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853/transcript/73967/annotation/50","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"There's no way we could get those numbers.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853#t=142.1,144.29"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853/transcript/73967/annotation/51","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"We could go out and we could operate","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853#t=144.29,146.05"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853/transcript/73967/annotation/52","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"like bunnies for the next 10 years.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853#t=146.05,148.17"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853/transcript/73967/annotation/53","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"We still couldn't produce numbers of that kind.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853#t=148.17,151.23"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853/transcript/73967/annotation/54","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"And yet this is still part of the common wisdom today.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853#t=151.23,154.94"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853/transcript/73967/annotation/55","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"And indeed, if the population did rise exponentially,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853#t=154.94,157.87"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853/transcript/73967/annotation/56","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"then there would be disaster.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853#t=157.87,159.17"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853/transcript/73967/annotation/57","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"It's hard to write any other scenario,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853#t=159.17,161.26"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853/transcript/73967/annotation/58","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"but if it is slowing down now,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853#t=161.26,164.96"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853/transcript/73967/annotation/59","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"as it definitely appears to be,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853#t=164.96,167.12"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853/transcript/73967/annotation/60","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"then it doesn't mean our problems are solved,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853#t=167.12,169.63"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853/transcript/73967/annotation/61","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"but it does mean that the possibility for solving them","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853#t=169.63,172.2"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853/transcript/73967/annotation/62","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"is not removed.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853#t=172.2,174.16"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853/transcript/73967/annotation/63","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"All right, that's the evidence then","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853#t=174.16,176.16"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853/transcript/73967/annotation/64","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"for the turnover in rates of economic growth","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853#t=176.16,179.91"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853/transcript/73967/annotation/65","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"and population growth.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853#t=179.91,181.52"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853/transcript/73967/annotation/66","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"The turnover that drives this scenario","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853#t=181.52,184.86"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853/transcript/73967/annotation/67","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"and that accounts for this great transition","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853#t=184.86,188.27"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853/transcript/73967/annotation/68","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"from pre to post industrial.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853#t=188.27,191.62"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853/transcript/73967/annotation/69","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"Now, I said there was another category of evidence","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853#t=191.62,193.29"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853/transcript/73967/annotation/70","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"and that is, do we have adequate resources","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853#t=193.29,195.58"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853/transcript/73967/annotation/71","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"to supply at the highest standard of living we project","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853#t=196.64,201.64"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853/transcript/73967/annotation/72","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"that in large population indefinitely into the future.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853#t=204.13,208.23"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853/transcript/73967/annotation/73","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"And our argument there is yes too.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853#t=208.23,211.49"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853/transcript/73967/annotation/74","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"And let me deal with two kinds of resources","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853#t=211.49,215.15"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853/transcript/73967/annotation/75","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"that we need quite new quantities of every day.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853#t=215.15,219.361"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853/transcript/73967/annotation/76","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"We can reuse and repair our homes","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853#t=219.361,223.16"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853/transcript/73967/annotation/77","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"and our automobiles or cloths","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853#t=223.16,225.2"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853/transcript/73967/annotation/78","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"but we need new supplies of energy","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853#t=225.2,228.35"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853/transcript/73967/annotation/79","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"and of food","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853#t=228.35,229.66"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853/transcript/73967/annotation/80","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"every day.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853#t=229.66,230.493"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853/transcript/73967/annotation/81","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"And they're both questions of great importance.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853#t=230.493,233.05"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853/transcript/73967/annotation/82","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"We're all consumed with energy","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853#t=233.05,234.14"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853/transcript/73967/annotation/83","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"and have been for some time now","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853#t=234.14,235.94"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853/transcript/73967/annotation/84","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"since at least the quadrupling of oil prices six years ago.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853#t=235.94,240.94"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853/transcript/73967/annotation/85","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"And of course we're all concerned about food","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853#t=241.05,243.13"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853/transcript/73967/annotation/86","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"and particularly in this great food growing state of Iowa","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853#t=243.13,246.52"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853/transcript/73967/annotation/87","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"and the activities involved in this great university.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853#t=246.52,249.373"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853/transcript/73967/annotation/88","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"So let me talk about energy and food","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853#t=250.68,253.1"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853/transcript/73967/annotation/89","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"and then I'll briefly allude to raw materials and pollution.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853#t=253.1,257.323"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853/transcript/73967/annotation/90","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"And the argument here","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853#t=258.37,259.704"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853/transcript/73967/annotation/91","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"of course is that there are adequate supplies available.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853#t=259.704,264.56"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853/transcript/73967/annotation/92","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"Let me take energy first.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853#t=264.56,265.883"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853/transcript/73967/annotation/93","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"Now our argument for energy says","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853#t=267.78,270.02"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853/transcript/73967/annotation/94","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"first of all that in the long run","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853#t=270.02,272.26"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853/transcript/73967/annotation/95","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"prospects for energy are so good","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853#t=275.53,278.64"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853/transcript/73967/annotation/96","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"that we expect that future historians will look back","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853#t=280.0,284.52"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853/transcript/73967/annotation/97","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"with barely concealed amusement at our concern","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853#t=284.52,289.07"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853/transcript/73967/annotation/98","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"about an energy crisis during these years.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853#t=289.07,291.79"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853/transcript/73967/annotation/99","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"They'll really wonder what the shouting was all about.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853#t=291.79,295.29"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853/transcript/73967/annotation/100","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"We believe that by the middle of the 21st 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online,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853#t=301.32,303.87"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853/transcript/73967/annotation/103","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"eternal sources of energy.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853#t=303.87,306.8"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853/transcript/73967/annotation/104","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"These will be some combination","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853#t=306.8,309.2"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853/transcript/73967/annotation/105","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"of solar, geothermal","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853#t=309.2,312.12"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853/transcript/73967/annotation/106","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"and manmade fusion.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853#t=312.12,314.59"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853/transcript/73967/annotation/107","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"Now we don't know which will come first.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853#t=314.59,316.9"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853/transcript/73967/annotation/108","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"We don't know which will be the most important.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853#t=316.9,318.95"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853/transcript/73967/annotation/109","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"This will depend upon research and development.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853#t=318.95,321.09"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853/transcript/73967/annotation/110","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"It will depend upon the capital cost of installation","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853#t=321.09,323.82"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853/transcript/73967/annotation/111","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"of central facilities,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853#t=323.82,325.64"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853/transcript/73967/annotation/112","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"but we do know that they are coming","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853#t=325.64,328.95"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853/transcript/73967/annotation/113","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"and that once they are online,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853#t=328.95,331.18"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853/transcript/73967/annotation/114","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"we never run out.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853#t=331.18,332.97"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853/transcript/73967/annotation/115","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"The problem is solved","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853#t=332.97,334.67"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853/transcript/73967/annotation/116","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"and it's solved for all time.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853#t=334.67,336.73"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853/transcript/73967/annotation/117","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"Our energy worries are over.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853#t=336.73,338.513"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853/transcript/73967/annotation/118","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"It's the short run that presents the difficulty.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853#t=340.27,343.55"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853/transcript/73967/annotation/119","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"Our ability to get from the here","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853#t=343.55,345.66"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853/transcript/73967/annotation/120","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"and now the dependency on fossil fuels that we have 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century.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853#t=352.76,354.543"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853/transcript/73967/annotation/123","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"Or we argue that the uncertainty arises","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853#t=356.555,360.493"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853/transcript/73967/annotation/124","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"not because of 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ones,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853#t=382.91,386.68"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853/transcript/73967/annotation/131","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"the major ones we're using today.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853#t=386.68,388.94"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853/transcript/73967/annotation/132","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"Oil and natural 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hydro.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853#t=418.99,422.26"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853/transcript/73967/annotation/143","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"But these are important to only marginally","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853#t=422.26,424.95"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853/transcript/73967/annotation/144","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"or locally where indeed they should be used.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853#t=424.95,427.99"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853/transcript/73967/annotation/145","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"If they can be used locally.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853#t=427.99,429.45"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853/transcript/73967/annotation/146","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"If a farmer can make his own methane and use it, fine.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853#t=429.45,432.44"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853/transcript/73967/annotation/147","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"That's gonna help relieve the pressure on the other sources.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853#t=432.44,435.68"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853/transcript/73967/annotation/148","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"But we can't think of any of those sources","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853#t=435.68,438.24"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853/transcript/73967/annotation/149","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"as being major solutions to the problem.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853#t=438.24,441.18"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853/transcript/73967/annotation/150","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"We're not going to become a solar energy 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source","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853#t=460.74,463.31"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853/transcript/73967/annotation/159","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"which is as yet unproven except for a few uses.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853#t=463.31,467.14"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853/transcript/73967/annotation/160","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"So these other sources are important, but only marginally.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853#t=467.14,470.58"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853/transcript/73967/annotation/161","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"The key sources for the transition","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853#t=470.58,472.14"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853/transcript/73967/annotation/162","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"are oil, natural gas, coal, and nuclear fission.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853#t=472.14,476.907"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853/transcript/73967/annotation/163","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"And by almost any calculation,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853#t=476.907,481.22"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853/transcript/73967/annotation/164","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"there is more than enough","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853#t=481.22,483.291"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853/transcript/73967/annotation/165","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"oil, natural gas, coal, and nuclear fission.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853#t=483.291,488.291"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853/transcript/73967/annotation/166","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"And that is true for two main reasons.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853#t=488.52,491.904"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853/transcript/73967/annotation/167","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"The first reason is that the rate of demand","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853#t=491.904,495.38"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853/transcript/73967/annotation/168","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"for energy is slowing faster","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853#t=495.38,498.697"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853/transcript/73967/annotation/169","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"than the rate of economic growth.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853#t=498.697,501.093"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853/transcript/73967/annotation/170","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"And the rate of economic growth as I've already argued,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853#t=502.11,505.03"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853/transcript/73967/annotation/171","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"is itself slowing.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853#t=505.03,507.146"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853/transcript/73967/annotation/172","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"It's very instructive to look back","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853#t=507.146,509.33"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853/transcript/73967/annotation/173","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"at projections of demand made by any reputable source","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853#t=509.33,513.07"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853/transcript/73967/annotation/174","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"whether it's oil company or non oil company","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853#t=513.07,515.28"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853/transcript/73967/annotation/175","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"or government source,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853#t=515.28,516.113"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853/transcript/73967/annotation/176","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"let's say the last 10 years.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853#t=516.113,518.05"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853/transcript/73967/annotation/177","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"And if you look back at them,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853#t=518.05,519.18"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853/transcript/73967/annotation/178","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"take Exxon's forecast for example for demand,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853#t=519.18,522.75"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853/transcript/73967/annotation/179","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"you will find that each year,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853#t=522.75,525.16"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853/transcript/73967/annotation/180","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"the forecast has been ratcheted down.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853#t=525.16,527.46"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853/transcript/73967/annotation/181","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"Each year it has been ratcheted down","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853#t=527.46,529.79"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853/transcript/73967/annotation/182","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"because they have failed to understand","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853#t=529.79,532.08"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853/transcript/73967/annotation/183","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"that higher prices create conservation,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853#t=533.01,537.86"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853/transcript/73967/annotation/184","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"create increased efficiency,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853#t=537.86,539.653"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853/transcript/73967/annotation/185","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"create incentives to use less","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853#t=540.55,544.0"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853/transcript/73967/annotation/186","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"at the same time as economic growth is slowing.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853#t=544.0,546.32"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853/transcript/73967/annotation/187","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"So the first reason that the adequacy","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853#t=546.32,548.72"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853/transcript/73967/annotation/188","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"of our current sources is the rate of demand is slowing.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853#t=548.72,551.52"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853/transcript/73967/annotation/189","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"And the second reason is that higher prices","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853#t=552.58,556.01"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853/transcript/73967/annotation/190","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"have made previously marginal sources cost effective.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853#t=556.01,561.01"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853/transcript/73967/annotation/191","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"You can't think of oil as just sitting there","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853#t=562.17,564.85"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853/transcript/73967/annotation/192","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"in a big reservoir on the ground,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853#t=564.85,566.38"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853/transcript/73967/annotation/193","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"you scoop out the last barrel,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853#t=566.38,568.82"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853/transcript/73967/annotation/194","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"but in fact,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853#t=568.82,569.87"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853/transcript/73967/annotation/195","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"some oil comes out of the ground at 25 cents a barrel","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853#t=569.87,573.2"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853/transcript/73967/annotation/196","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"and some at $250 a barrel","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853#t=573.2,574.84"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853/transcript/73967/annotation/197","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"and some at $25 a barrel","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853#t=574.84,576.8"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853/transcript/73967/annotation/198","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"and some at $2,500 a barrel","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853#t=576.8,578.81"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853/transcript/73967/annotation/199","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"and the last barrel to come out","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853#t=578.81,580.33"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853/transcript/73967/annotation/200","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"of the ground would probably cost about $250 billion","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853#t=580.33,583.42"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853/transcript/73967/annotation/201","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"if we wanted to get it out,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853#t=583.42,584.62"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853/transcript/73967/annotation/202","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"which we won't of course.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853#t=584.62,586.17"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853/transcript/73967/annotation/203","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"So the further up we go on the scale of price,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853#t=586.17,589.526"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853/transcript/73967/annotation/204","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"the more it becomes available.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853#t=589.526,592.58"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853/transcript/73967/annotation/205","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"And so as ironic as it sounds,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853#t=592.58,594.13"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853/transcript/73967/annotation/206","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"the more we use, the more we have","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853#t=594.13,596.04"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853/transcript/73967/annotation/207","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"because we do go increasingly the marginal sources","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853#t=596.04,599.96"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853/transcript/73967/annotation/208","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"as the price rises","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853#t=599.96,601.21"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853/transcript/73967/annotation/209","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"and makes those marginal sources not viable.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853#t=601.21,604.47"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853/transcript/73967/annotation/210","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"For those two reasons","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853#t=604.47,605.869"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853/transcript/73967/annotation/211","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"and the rate of demand slowing","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853#t=605.869,607.14"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853/transcript/73967/annotation/212","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"and a higher prices making marginal sources cost-effective","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853#t=607.14,610.41"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853/transcript/73967/annotation/213","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"mean that our supplies are adequate","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853#t=610.41,612.33"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853/transcript/73967/annotation/214","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"and I could break this discussion down","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853#t=612.33,614.307"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853/transcript/73967/annotation/215","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"and we'll be happy to do so","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853#t=614.307,615.14"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853/transcript/73967/annotation/216","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"and during the question period","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853#t=615.14,616.34"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853/transcript/73967/annotation/217","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"into specific fields if you want","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853#t=616.34,618.01"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853/transcript/73967/annotation/218","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"and where they're going to come from.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853#t=618.01,620.4"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853/transcript/73967/annotation/219","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"What is it needed then?","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853#t=620.4,621.55"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853/transcript/73967/annotation/220","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"Well, what is needed and what is still lacking today","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853#t=622.546,625.0"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853/transcript/73967/annotation/221","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"and one can't say for sure","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853#t=625.0,627.269"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853/transcript/73967/annotation/222","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"whether a new administration will change this.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853#t=627.269,628.53"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853/transcript/73967/annotation/223","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"I don't think the indications","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853#t=628.53,629.64"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853/transcript/73967/annotation/224","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"are particularly strong that it will,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853#t=629.64,631.43"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853/transcript/73967/annotation/225","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"but what is it still lacking","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853#t=631.43,632.978"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853/transcript/73967/annotation/226","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"are adequate public policy measures","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853#t=632.978,636.33"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853/transcript/73967/annotation/227","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"to deal with the political problems","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853#t=636.33,638.96"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853/transcript/73967/annotation/228","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"and the economic problems that have slowed our ability","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853#t=638.96,643.25"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853/transcript/73967/annotation/229","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"to make use of this adequate supply of transitional sources.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853#t=643.25,648.25"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853/transcript/73967/annotation/230","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"Now what can hurt","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853#t=649.25,650.86"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853/transcript/73967/annotation/231","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"and what can make the problem","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853#t=650.86,652.21"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853/transcript/73967/annotation/232","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"even more difficult of course,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853#t=652.21,654.61"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853/transcript/73967/annotation/233","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"what can increase the uncertainty for the short term,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853#t=654.61,657.813"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853/transcript/73967/annotation/234","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"would be a major interruption","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853#t=658.74,661.36"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853/transcript/73967/annotation/235","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"in a currently important supply.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853#t=661.36,664.2"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853/transcript/73967/annotation/236","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"Now we've had two of these in the last six 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revolution.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853#t=672.16,674.49"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853/transcript/73967/annotation/239","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"And we're now witnessing a third interruption.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853#t=674.49,677.2"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853/transcript/73967/annotation/240","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"The interruption of some 3 million barrels a day","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853#t=677.2,680.12"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853/transcript/73967/annotation/241","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"in export from Iraq","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853#t=680.12,682.0"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853/transcript/73967/annotation/242","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"and the small amount that was still coming out of Iran","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853#t=682.0,684.59"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853/transcript/73967/annotation/243","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"because of the war today","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853#t=684.59,685.6"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853/transcript/73967/annotation/244","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"between those two 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cases","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853#t=691.326,694.325"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853/transcript/73967/annotation/247","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"because first demand is lower","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853#t=694.325,697.42"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853/transcript/73967/annotation/248","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"and secondly,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853#t=697.42,698.55"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853/transcript/73967/annotation/249","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"the Saudis and some of the other OPEC","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853#t=698.55,701.73"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853/transcript/73967/annotation/250","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"and non OPEC nations have increased their production","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853#t=701.73,705.65"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853/transcript/73967/annotation/251","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"to make up the short fall caused by the cutting off","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853#t=705.65,709.33"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853/transcript/73967/annotation/252","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"of the Iranian and Iraqi supplies.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853#t=709.33,711.89"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853/transcript/73967/annotation/253","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"And also because during the last crisis","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853#t=711.89,714.51"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853/transcript/73967/annotation/254","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"we built up very extensive stuff piles","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853#t=714.51,717.15"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853/transcript/73967/annotation/255","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"and those still exist and are being drawn down a little bit.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853#t=717.15,721.16"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853/transcript/73967/annotation/256","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"However, if you look carefully at the oil market 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Rotterdam,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853#t=730.65,732.95"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853/transcript/73967/annotation/261","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"that that spot price is back up above the contract price.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853#t=732.95,736.85"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853/transcript/73967/annotation/262","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"It's $40 a barrel now,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853#t=736.85,738.46"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853/transcript/73967/annotation/263","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"and even more in a couple of cases.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853#t=738.46,740.97"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853/transcript/73967/annotation/264","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"And also we find that all the price 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on","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853#t=745.49,747.1"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853/transcript/73967/annotation/267","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"before the Arab-Iraqi war that has ended.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853#t=747.1,750.63"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853/transcript/73967/annotation/268","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"And in fact, now premiums are being 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Arabs","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853#t=772.94,777.214"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853/transcript/73967/annotation/277","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"that we pay more for the price of oil by the OPEC nations.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853#t=777.214,782.214"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853/transcript/73967/annotation/278","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"Demand will then press on supply.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853#t=782.22,785.44"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853/transcript/73967/annotation/279","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"Prices will rise","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853#t=785.44,787.1"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853/transcript/73967/annotation/280","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"and then it will begin to see the panic buying occur","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853#t=787.1,790.09"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853/transcript/73967/annotation/281","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"and the gas lines form.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853#t=790.09,792.1"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853/transcript/73967/annotation/282","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"And if the winter is a cold one,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853#t=792.1,793.712"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853/transcript/73967/annotation/283","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"and we have to be prudent","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853#t=793.712,795.422"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853/transcript/73967/annotation/284","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"and anticipate that it's going to be cold,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853#t=795.422,798.67"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853/transcript/73967/annotation/285","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"that's the only sensible hedge to make.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853#t=798.67,801.503"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853/transcript/73967/annotation/286","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"But then we will want to reserve as much as we can","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853#t=801.503,803.17"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853/transcript/73967/annotation/287","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"for fuel oil supplies,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853#t=803.17,804.85"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853/transcript/73967/annotation/288","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"which will make less available then","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853#t=804.85,806.74"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853/transcript/73967/annotation/289","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"for refining it to gasoline.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853#t=806.74,809.25"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853/transcript/73967/annotation/290","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"So you can write a 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months","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853#t=813.91,815.81"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853/transcript/73967/annotation/293","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"if there is not a truce","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853#t=815.81,817.64"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853/transcript/73967/annotation/294","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"and the beginning of a repair of the facilities","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853#t=817.64,819.78"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853/transcript/73967/annotation/295","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"that have been damaged.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853#t=819.78,821.031"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853/transcript/73967/annotation/296","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"Saudi Arabia, the Gulf States","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853#t=821.031,823.49"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853/transcript/73967/annotation/297","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"and non OPEC nations can make up some of the difference","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853#t=823.49,826.14"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853/transcript/73967/annotation/298","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"in that short fall","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853#t=826.14,827.117"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853/transcript/73967/annotation/299","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"but how much for how long and at what price.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853#t=827.117,831.223"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853/transcript/73967/annotation/300","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"Well, the problem of an interruption of this kind","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853#t=832.49,835.25"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853/transcript/73967/annotation/301","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"and we should learn that these are going to occur.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853#t=835.25,838.083"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853/transcript/73967/annotation/302","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"We're not gonna solve the middle East.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853#t=838.93,840.88"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853/transcript/73967/annotation/303","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"The middle East is Arab against Israel.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853#t=840.88,843.37"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853/transcript/73967/annotation/304","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"The middle East is conservative against radical,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853#t=843.37,846.9"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853/transcript/73967/annotation/305","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"it's Shia against Sunni,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853#t=846.9,848.43"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853/transcript/73967/annotation/306","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"it's Palestinians against practically everybody else.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853#t=848.43,852.36"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853/transcript/73967/annotation/307","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"These problems are gonna be with us for some time","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853#t=852.36,854.63"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853/transcript/73967/annotation/308","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"and so that supply is susceptible to interruption","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853#t=854.63,857.305"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853/transcript/73967/annotation/309","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"and there could be other accidents.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853#t=857.305,859.05"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853/transcript/73967/annotation/310","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"So it could be a three mile Island accident","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853#t=859.05,861.061"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853/transcript/73967/annotation/311","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"that was indeed a disaster.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853#t=861.061,863.1"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853/transcript/73967/annotation/312","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"And of course that would lead to a call","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853#t=863.1,864.96"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853/transcript/73967/annotation/313","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"for a shutdown of plants","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853#t=864.96,867.23"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853/transcript/73967/annotation/314","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"until the source of the disaster could be discovered","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853#t=867.23,870.98"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853/transcript/73967/annotation/315","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"and remedied if it could be.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853#t=870.98,872.41"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853/transcript/73967/annotation/316","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"And that would cut off an important source","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853#t=872.41,874.27"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853/transcript/73967/annotation/317","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"and then cause pressure on the others.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853#t=874.27,875.85"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853/transcript/73967/annotation/318","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"Well, the point is that we should 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that,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853#t=881.895,883.91"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853/transcript/73967/annotation/321","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"we then should become even more alerted","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853#t=883.91,885.95"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853/transcript/73967/annotation/322","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"to the need to solve the economic","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853#t=885.95,888.02"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853/transcript/73967/annotation/323","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"and the political problems who enable us to bring more","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853#t=888.02,890.893"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853/transcript/73967/annotation/324","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"of our current adequate sources on line","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853#t=890.893,895.48"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853/transcript/73967/annotation/325","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"and to provide a hedge then","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853#t=895.48,897.2"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853/transcript/73967/annotation/326","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"against future interruptions that might occur.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853#t=897.2,900.513"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853/transcript/73967/annotation/327","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"All right, that's the energy argument.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853#t=901.96,903.487"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853/transcript/73967/annotation/328","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"And what about the food question","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853#t=903.487,905.423"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853/transcript/73967/annotation/329","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"that I think you're all interested in","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853#t=905.423,907.76"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853/transcript/73967/annotation/330","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"and seized with here in aims and in oil?","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853#t=907.76,910.253"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853/transcript/73967/annotation/331","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"Well, it's an interesting question.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853#t=910.253,912.078"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853/transcript/73967/annotation/332","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"And if you look back in the literature","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853#t=912.078,913.97"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853/transcript/73967/annotation/333","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"you'll see that periodically","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853#t=913.97,915.15"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853/transcript/73967/annotation/334","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"we have had great worries about shortages of food.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853#t=915.15,918.65"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853/transcript/73967/annotation/335","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"You'll have several speakers coming this week","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853#t=918.65,920.93"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853/transcript/73967/annotation/336","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"which we'll talk about that in very interesting ways.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853#t=920.93,923.67"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853/transcript/73967/annotation/337","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"So listen carefully","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853#t=923.67,924.64"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853/transcript/73967/annotation/338","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"and see what they think of some of these ideas.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853#t=924.64,927.198"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853/transcript/73967/annotation/339","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"Some of them will agree","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853#t=927.198,928.47"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853/transcript/73967/annotation/340","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"and I suspect some of them will not.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853#t=928.47,930.87"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853/transcript/73967/annotation/341","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"Now a few years ago,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853#t=930.87,931.703"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853/transcript/73967/annotation/342","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"there was a highly respected book.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853#t=931.703,933.533"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853/transcript/73967/annotation/343","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"It achieved wide popularity, got good reviews.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853#t=934.82,937.264"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853/transcript/73967/annotation/344","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"It predicted starvation in the world","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853#t=937.264,940.95"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853/transcript/73967/annotation/345","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"in the rather near future.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853#t=940.95,943.42"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853/transcript/73967/annotation/346","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"And it looked at this grim prospect","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853#t=943.42,945.75"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853/transcript/73967/annotation/347","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"and it could recommend only one public policy","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853#t=945.75,949.516"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853/transcript/73967/annotation/348","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"and that public policy was called triage.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853#t=949.516,953.76"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853/transcript/73967/annotation/349","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"Now triage is a term that was developed","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853#t=953.76,955.83"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853/transcript/73967/annotation/350","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"on the 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so","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853#t=1301.8,1303.59"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853/transcript/73967/annotation/481","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"or alternatively simply development in general.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853#t=1303.59,1306.927"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853/transcript/73967/annotation/482","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"So that countries that don't grow their own 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require.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853#t=1311.8,1314.053"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853/transcript/73967/annotation/485","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"So we can have the energy","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853#t=1315.89,1318.146"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853/transcript/73967/annotation/486","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"and we can have the food we 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indefinitely","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853#t=1323.363,1326.78"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853/transcript/73967/annotation/489","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"and at a very high standard of living.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853#t=1326.78,1329.0"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853/transcript/73967/annotation/490","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"And we think that these are the most difficult 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viable","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853#t=1363.01,1366.83"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853/transcript/73967/annotation/505","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"and can be followed.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853#t=1366.83,1368.024"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853/transcript/73967/annotation/506","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"The argument is that a consensus can be reached","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853#t=1368.024,1371.31"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853/transcript/73967/annotation/507","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"and the problems related to growth.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853#t=1372.5,1376.97"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853/transcript/73967/annotation/508","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"The problems that are so troubling,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853#t=1376.97,1378.96"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853/transcript/73967/annotation/509","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"so contentious as a subject of so many","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853#t=1378.96,1381.2"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853/transcript/73967/annotation/510","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"of the doom and gloom forecasts.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853#t=1381.2,1383.61"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853/transcript/73967/annotation/511","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"That that is possible by looking at this model of the future","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853#t=1383.61,1388.61"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853/transcript/73967/annotation/512","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"showing the change from pre-industrial to post-industrial","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853#t=1389.95,1394.023"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853/transcript/73967/annotation/513","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"and by looking at the resources that we need","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853#t=1394.023,1397.11"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853/transcript/73967/annotation/514","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"and showing the adequacy of their 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continues,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853#t=1456.05,1457.99"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853/transcript/73967/annotation/533","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"that matures","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853#t=1457.99,1459.07"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853/transcript/73967/annotation/534","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"and that 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healthy","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853#t=1462.51,1464.24"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853/transcript/73967/annotation/537","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"and prosperous for all of its inhabitants,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853#t=1464.24,1466.36"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853/transcript/73967/annotation/538","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"not just the fortunate few of Western Europe","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853#t=1466.36,1468.29"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853/transcript/73967/annotation/539","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"or North America or East Asia.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853#t=1468.29,1470.353"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853/transcript/73967/annotation/540","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"This is a process that is 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growth","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853#t=1477.19,1479.16"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853/transcript/73967/annotation/543","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"of a 12 year old five foot boy","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853#t=1479.16,1482.803"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853/transcript/73967/annotation/544","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"out of fear that if you did not at the age of 24,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853#t=1482.803,1485.54"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853/transcript/73967/annotation/545","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"he'd be 10 feet tall.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853#t=1485.54,1487.333"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853/transcript/73967/annotation/546","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"So let me conclude on this note of hope and optimism.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853#t=1488.81,1493.325"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853/transcript/73967/annotation/547","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"That's the note I want to leave you with.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853#t=1493.325,1495.23"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853/transcript/73967/annotation/548","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"That's a note that our studies at Hudson leave us with.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853#t=1495.23,1497.8"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853/transcript/73967/annotation/549","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"Let me conclude with a metaphor.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853#t=1497.8,1499.47"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853/transcript/73967/annotation/550","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"You may have heard it because it's popular","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853#t=1499.47,1501.22"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853/transcript/73967/annotation/551","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"with the doom-sayers and the gloom-sayers.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853#t=1501.22,1504.14"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853/transcript/73967/annotation/552","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"And what this metaphor does is to depict","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853#t=1504.14,1506.63"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853/transcript/73967/annotation/553","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"the 5 billion year physical history of the earth.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853#t=1506.63,1510.91"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853/transcript/73967/annotation/554","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"So far as a 24 hour day.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853#t=1510.91,1513.853"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853/transcript/73967/annotation/555","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"And it argues on this basis","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853#t=1514.97,1518.56"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853/transcript/73967/annotation/556","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"that human existence has taken just the last five minutes","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853#t=1518.56,1523.56"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853/transcript/73967/annotation/557","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"of that 24 hour day","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853#t=1523.92,1525.676"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853/transcript/73967/annotation/558","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"and recorded history just the last few seconds.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853#t=1525.676,1528.923"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853/transcript/73967/annotation/559","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"Well, the metaphor stated in this fashion of course","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853#t=1529.89,1533.0"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853/transcript/73967/annotation/560","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"implies that midnight is near the day is almost over","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853#t=1533.0,1537.46"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853/transcript/73967/annotation/561","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"and the earth too.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853#t=1537.46,1538.523"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853/transcript/73967/annotation/562","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"Well, I prefer to look at the metaphor differently.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853#t=1539.75,1542.66"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853/transcript/73967/annotation/563","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"There is a general guess among physicists and geologists","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853#t=1542.66,1546.66"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853/transcript/73967/annotation/564","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"that the earth may last approximately 10 billion years more.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853#t=1546.66,1550.413"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853/transcript/73967/annotation/565","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"If so, a third of the Earth's history has passed.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853#t=1551.82,1555.763"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853/transcript/73967/annotation/566","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"And on the basis of that 24 hour day,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853#t=1556.6,1559.22"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853/transcript/73967/annotation/567","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"this means that it is now 8:00 AM,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853#t=1559.22,1562.58"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853/transcript/73967/annotation/568","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"the sun has just risen, the day has just begun","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853#t=1562.58,1565.69"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853/transcript/73967/annotation/569","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"and it's time to go to work.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853#t=1565.69,1567.533"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853/transcript/73967/annotation/570","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"Thank you very much.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853#t=1567.533,1568.748"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853/transcript/73967/annotation/571","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"(audience claps)","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853#t=1568.748,1571.498"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853/transcript/73967/annotation/572","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"\u003cstrong\u003e-:\u003c/strong\u003e Thank you Dr. Martel for an excellent","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853#t=1578.201,1579.87"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853/transcript/73967/annotation/573","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"and very inspiring talk.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853#t=1579.87,1581.55"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853/transcript/73967/annotation/574","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"I'm sure that a lot of you have some questions","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853#t=1581.55,1584.62"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853/transcript/73967/annotation/575","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"for Dr. Martel","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853#t=1584.62,1585.76"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853/transcript/73967/annotation/576","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"and we do have 15, 20 minutes to entertain these questions.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853#t=1585.76,1589.85"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853/transcript/73967/annotation/577","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"So if you have a question, please raise your hand.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853#t=1589.85,1592.44"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853/transcript/73967/annotation/578","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"It would help if you stand and enunciate very clearly","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853#t=1592.44,1595.92"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853/transcript/73967/annotation/579","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"so that we can all hear the area of inquiry.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853#t=1597.08,1601.153"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853/transcript/73967/annotation/580","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"\u003cstrong\u003e-:\u003c/strong\u003e Right back in the center there.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853#t=1604.207,1607.354"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853/transcript/73967/annotation/581","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"(faintly speaking)","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853#t=1607.354,1610.271"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853/transcript/73967/annotation/582","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"\u003cstrong\u003e-:\u003c/strong\u003e Did you hear that? Everybody hear the question okay?","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853#t=1618.876,1622.09"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853/transcript/73967/annotation/583","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"\u003cstrong\u003e-:\u003c/strong\u003e No, I didn't mean to imply that,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853#t=1622.09,1624.24"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853/transcript/73967/annotation/584","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"I meant to say that they all will develop,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853#t=1624.24,1626.12"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853/transcript/73967/annotation/585","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"not that they will always follow","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853#t=1626.12,1627.12"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853/transcript/73967/annotation/586","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"the same path of development because it's clear that looking","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853#t=1627.12,1630.97"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853/transcript/73967/annotation/587","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"at nations in the world today,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853#t=1630.97,1633.073"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853/transcript/73967/annotation/588","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"that while the nations who are now developed,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853#t=1633.97,1637.131"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853/transcript/73967/annotation/589","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"mainly pass through paths from agricultural","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853#t=1637.131,1640.99"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853/transcript/73967/annotation/590","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"to industrial development.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853#t=1640.99,1642.555"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853/transcript/73967/annotation/591","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"That that is not necessarily gonna be true","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853#t=1642.555,1645.86"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853/transcript/73967/annotation/592","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"for many of the nations that are now developing.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853#t=1645.86,1649.04"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853/transcript/73967/annotation/593","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"In fact that have developed quite a bit.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853#t=1649.04,1651.173"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853/transcript/73967/annotation/594","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"An outstanding example, of course,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853#t=1652.41,1653.78"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853/transcript/73967/annotation/595","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"are the nations that are oil rich","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853#t=1653.78,1656.17"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853/transcript/73967/annotation/596","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"which will use the oil revenue to develop","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853#t=1656.17,1659.45"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853/transcript/73967/annotation/597","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"and not have to go through the other intermediate stages.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853#t=1659.45,1662.19"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853/transcript/73967/annotation/598","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"Another good example,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853#t=1662.19,1663.803"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853/transcript/73967/annotation/599","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"some of the East Asian nations,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853#t=1663.803,1666.08"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853/transcript/73967/annotation/600","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"South Korea, for example, Singapore or Hong Kong","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853#t=1666.08,1669.52"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853/transcript/73967/annotation/601","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"who will have passive development,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853#t=1669.52,1671.2"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853/transcript/73967/annotation/602","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"which are tied to particular opportunities for 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Union","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853#t=1707.87,1709.21"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853/transcript/73967/annotation/619","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"with 25% of the people in agriculture","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853#t=1709.21,1711.08"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853/transcript/73967/annotation/620","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"not being able to grow enough for its food.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853#t=1711.08,1712.75"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853/transcript/73967/annotation/621","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"We would say yes, they've grown,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853#t=1712.75,1714.39"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853/transcript/73967/annotation/622","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"they've developed but we believe the free enterprise 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followed.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853#t=1786.81,1788.78"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853/transcript/73967/annotation/645","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"We can point to one area of the world","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853#t=1788.78,1791.34"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853/transcript/73967/annotation/646","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"that has practically no willingness at all if it has any","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853#t=1792.49,1795.46"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853/transcript/73967/annotation/647","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"perhaps just in the fringe areas","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853#t=1795.46,1797.04"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853/transcript/73967/annotation/648","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"and yet is a very highly developed area where people 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Europe.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853#t=1801.022,1802.82"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853/transcript/73967/annotation/651","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"Now, I would prefer","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853#t=1802.82,1804.56"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853/transcript/73967/annotation/652","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"and I suspect many Americans would 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population,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853#t=1810.14,1812.0"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853/transcript/73967/annotation/655","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"this becomes a matter much more for public policy","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853#t=1812.0,1815.95"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853/transcript/73967/annotation/656","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"particularly as people wanna use them as recreation areas.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853#t=1815.95,1819.193"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853/transcript/73967/annotation/657","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"You'll begin to see things like rationing of space","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853#t=1820.03,1823.12"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853/transcript/73967/annotation/658","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"or reservations in public parks","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853#t=1823.12,1826.01"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853/transcript/73967/annotation/659","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"and some of the national forest areas","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853#t=1826.01,1827.891"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853/transcript/73967/annotation/660","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"for camping and so forth.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853#t=1827.891,1830.2"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853/transcript/73967/annotation/661","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"And inevitably,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853#t=1830.2,1831.033"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853/transcript/73967/annotation/662","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"I think more of this is going to occur","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853#t=1831.033,1832.96"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853/transcript/73967/annotation/663","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"to protect the resources that are there","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853#t=1832.96,1834.839"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853/transcript/73967/annotation/664","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"and also to provide for what we think","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853#t=1834.839,1838.27"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853/transcript/73967/annotation/665","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"is an important value to us.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853#t=1838.27,1839.938"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853/transcript/73967/annotation/666","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"Public policy is gonna be required to step in.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853#t=1839.938,1842.87"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853/transcript/73967/annotation/667","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"You probably saw this morning","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853#t=1842.87,1843.99"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853/transcript/73967/annotation/668","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"that president Carter signed the bill to preserve,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853#t=1843.99,1846.9"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853/transcript/73967/annotation/669","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"I think it was a mid 104 million acres in Alaska","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853#t=1846.9,1850.4"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853/transcript/73967/annotation/670","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"which is for just that purpose and monitor.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853#t=1850.4,1852.11"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853/transcript/73967/annotation/671","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"So I would hope it would be enlightened enough","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853#t=1852.11,1853.89"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853/transcript/73967/annotation/672","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"to deal with that as we go along.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853#t=1853.89,1855.54"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853/transcript/73967/annotation/673","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"\u003cstrong\u003e-:\u003c/strong\u003e Someone else.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853#t=1857.4,1858.37"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853/transcript/73967/annotation/674","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"Yes, sir.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853#t=1858.37,1859.203"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853/transcript/73967/annotation/675","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"(faintly speaking)","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853#t=1860.165,1863.082"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853/transcript/73967/annotation/676","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"\u003cstrong\u003e-:\u003c/strong\u003e Well, what's the inflection point by definition","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853#t=1872.45,1875.64"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853/transcript/73967/annotation/677","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"marks a slowing of the rate of growth.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853#t=1875.64,1880.64"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853/transcript/73967/annotation/678","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"So the total accumulation then","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853#t=1881.82,1885.5"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853/transcript/73967/annotation/679","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"is slow to the population.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853#t=1887.09,1889.07"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853/transcript/73967/annotation/680","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"Instead of going like that, it goes like that.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853#t=1889.07,1893.131"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853/transcript/73967/annotation/681","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"(faintly speaking)","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853#t=1893.131,1896.048"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853/transcript/73967/annotation/682","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"\u003cstrong\u003e-:\u003c/strong\u003e Well, if I had a blackboard here,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853#t=1898.17,1899.36"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853/transcript/73967/annotation/683","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"I'd draw you the curve","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853#t=1899.36,1900.23"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853/transcript/73967/annotation/684","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"and I'm talking about a logistic curve.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853#t=1900.23,1902.84"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853/transcript/73967/annotation/685","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"And if you have a rate of growth","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853#t=1902.84,1906.64"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853/transcript/73967/annotation/686","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"that if we draw a curve this way","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853#t=1907.61,1911.12"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853/transcript/73967/annotation/687","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"and we have a zero rate of growth","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853#t=1911.12,1912.88"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853/transcript/73967/annotation/688","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"and we rise up the population, for example","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853#t=1912.88,1914.969"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853/transcript/73967/annotation/689","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"to rate of growth of say 2.1%","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853#t=1914.969,1918.73"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853/transcript/73967/annotation/690","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"which is the highest rate we reached with a wide population,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853#t=1918.73,1921.14"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853/transcript/73967/annotation/691","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"and we slowed back down to zero rate of growth,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853#t=1921.14,1924.17"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853/transcript/73967/annotation/692","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"We eventually get a stable of population,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853#t=1924.17,1926.2"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853/transcript/73967/annotation/693","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"unless of course we lengthen out life indefinitely","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853#t=1926.2,1930.64"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853/transcript/73967/annotation/694","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"or to the point of immortality.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853#t=1930.64,1933.19"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853/transcript/73967/annotation/695","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"And then all the people who have alive stay alive","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853#t=1933.19,1936.16"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853/transcript/73967/annotation/696","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"and don't die.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853#t=1936.16,1936.993"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853/transcript/73967/annotation/697","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"That's the only way I can see","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853#t=1936.993,1938.26"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853/transcript/73967/annotation/698","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"where the number would continue to rise up to larger","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853#t=1938.26,1942.61"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853/transcript/73967/annotation/699","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"and larger dimensions.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853#t=1942.61,1944.007"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853/transcript/73967/annotation/700","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"(faintly speaking)","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853#t=1944.007,1947.44"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853/transcript/73967/annotation/701","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"\u003cstrong\u003e-:\u003c/strong\u003e Well, you and I need a blackboard up here.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853#t=1947.44,1950.195"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853/transcript/73967/annotation/702","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"(faintly speaking)","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853#t=1950.195,1951.64"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853/transcript/73967/annotation/703","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"\u003cstrong\u003e-:\u003c/strong\u003e All right. The argument based on population is that..","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853#t=1951.64,1956.64"}]},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853/transcript/73967","type":"AnnotationPage","label":{"en":["English [Transcript]"]},"items":[{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853/transcript/73967/annotation/704","type":"Annotation","motivation":"subtitling","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"https://d9jk7wjtjpu5g.cloudfront.net/file_transcripts/associated_files/000/073/967/original/AV168175_The_Next_200_Years_a.vtt?1735664648","format":"text/vtt","language":"en"},"target":"https://d9jk7wjtjpu5g.cloudfront.net/file_transcripts/associated_files/000/073/967/original/AV168175_The_Next_200_Years_a.vtt?1735664648"}]},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853/transcript/73968","type":"AnnotationPage","label":{"en":["AV168175_The_Next_200_Years_a.txt [Transcript]"]},"items":[{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45505/file/259853/transcript/73968/annotation/705","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"- I remember when we first put together the population data for our book, it was back in 1975. And we looked at the statistics available from the United nations and from other population groups that gathered this data. And it appeared at the time that inflection point the moment when the population growth rate began to slow, was gonna occur in 1975. The year we were writing our book. And I remember Herman Kahn, who is a big huge fellow you've may have seen him on TV, 350 pounds. He wears an average beard around his chin, sitting in his office, and he's a bit of a Patriot than a nationalist, sitting in his office there and ruefully shaking his head that inflection point could not occur in 1976. The year of the American bicentennial. And then suddenly his eyes lit up and he suggested a new public policy program for Hudson Institute called SEX in 75. We all go out and do a bit that year. And we try to push the inflection point up one year to 1976, the year of the American bicentennial. Well, we would have been way off because as we got more data and this of course is an area that's very subject to the quality of the data and the amount that you get. We discovered that the inflection point had occurred even earlier probably in 1965. And so it seems that we are headed inevitably toward eventual zero growth and a stabilized population. Now, this is a great moment in human history. It may be the greatest event in the history of the planet. We have turned a great corner. We will not turn back. And yet still I think, still it is gone almost unnoticed by the educated public. And you can find people, people who should know much better getting up and talking about the exponential population growth, the population bomb, talking about the 10 billion people that we're gonna have by the end of this year Or if you read the global 2000 report for the president, the 30 billion people we're gonna have next century. There's no way we could get those numbers. We could go out and we could operate like bunnies for the next 10 years. We still couldn't produce numbers of that kind. And yet this is still part of the common wisdom today. And indeed, if the population did rise exponentially, then there would be disaster. It's hard to write any other scenario, but if it is slowing down now, as it definitely appears to be, then it doesn't mean our problems are solved, but it does mean that the possibility for solving them is not removed. All right, that's the evidence then for the turnover in rates of economic growth and population growth. The turnover that drives this scenario and that accounts for this great transition from pre to post industrial. Now, I said there was another category of evidence and that is, do we have adequate resources to supply at the highest standard of living we project that in large population indefinitely into the future. And our argument there is yes too. And let me deal with two kinds of resources that we need quite new quantities of every day. We can reuse and repair our homes and our automobiles or cloths but we need new supplies of energy and of food every day. And they're both questions of great importance. We're all consumed with energy and have been for some time now since at least the quadrupling of oil prices six years ago. And of course we're all concerned about food and particularly in this great food growing state of Iowa and the activities involved in this great university. So let me talk about energy and food and then I'll briefly allude to raw materials and pollution. And the argument here of course is that there are adequate supplies available. Let me take energy first. Now our argument for energy says first of all that in the long run prospects for energy are so good that we expect that future historians will look back with barely concealed amusement at our concern about an energy crisis during these years. They'll really wonder what the shouting was all about. We believe that by the middle of the 21st century about 70 years from now, perhaps sooner, that we will have coming online, eternal sources of energy. These will be some combination of solar, geothermal and manmade fusion. Now we don't know which will come first. We don't know which will be the most important. This will depend upon research and development. It will depend upon the capital cost of installation of central facilities, but we do know that they are coming and that once they are online, we never run out. The problem is solved and it's solved for all time. Our energy worries are over. It's the short run that presents the difficulty. Our ability to get from the here and now the dependency on fossil fuels that we have today to that era of eternals sources sometime in the middle of the next century. Or we argue that the uncertainty arises not because of supply. The uncertainty in the short term arises not because of supply, but instead, because of a number of economic and political reasons. The supply is there for the transition to the eternal sources and these sources for the transition are the very ones, the major ones we're using today. Oil and natural gas and conventional and unconventional forms. The unconventional forms being the natural gas that does not come as a direct result of petroleum production or the oil that comes for example from shell or from coal or tar sands. And in addition, coal and nuclear fission. Oil, natural gas, coal and nuclear fission. Now there are other sources that can be important, biomass, wind, hydro. But these are important to only marginally or locally where indeed they should be used. If they can be used locally. If a farmer can make his own methane and use it, fine. That's gonna help relieve the pressure on the other sources. But we can't think of any of those sources as being major solutions to the problem. We're not going to become a solar energy society by the end of this century. We can't be because the technology isn't developed that far yet. And we can't be also for the very simple reason that our entire economic infrastructure is built on the use of hydrocarbons. Then we're not going to destroy it suddenly to replace it with a society built on our energy source which is as yet unproven except for a few uses. So these other sources are important, but only marginally. The key sources for the transition are oil, natural gas, coal, and nuclear fission. And by almost any calculation, there is more than enough oil, natural gas, coal, and nuclear fission. And that is true for two main reasons. The first reason is that the rate of demand for energy is slowing faster than the rate of economic growth. And the rate of economic growth as I've already argued, is itself slowing. It's very instructive to look back at projections of demand made by any reputable source whether it's oil company or non oil company or government source, let's say the last 10 years. And if you look back at them, take Exxon's forecast for example for demand, you will find that each year, the forecast has been ratcheted down. Each year it has been ratcheted down because they have failed to understand that higher prices create conservation, create increased efficiency, create incentives to use less at the same time as economic growth is slowing. So the first reason that the adequacy of our current sources is the rate of demand is slowing. And the second reason is that higher prices have made previously marginal sources cost effective. You can't think of oil as just sitting there in a big reservoir on the ground, you scoop out the last barrel, but in fact, some oil comes out of the ground at 25 cents a barrel and some at $250 a barrel and some at $25 a barrel and some at $2,500 a barrel and the last barrel to come out of the ground would probably cost about $250 billion if we wanted to get it out, which we won't of course. So the further up we go on the scale of price, the more it becomes available. And so as ironic as it sounds, the more we use, the more we have because we do go increasingly the marginal sources as the price rises and makes those marginal sources not viable. For those two reasons and the rate of demand slowing and a higher prices making marginal sources cost-effective mean that our supplies are adequate and I could break this discussion down and we'll be happy to do so and during the question period into specific fields if you want and where they're going to come from. What is it needed then? Well, what is needed and what is still lacking today and one can't say for sure whether a new administration will change this. I don't think the indications are particularly strong that it will, but what is it still lacking are adequate public policy measures to deal with the political problems and the economic problems that have slowed our ability to make use of this adequate supply of transitional sources. Now what can hurt and what can make the problem even more difficult of course, what can increase the uncertainty for the short term, would be a major interruption in a currently important supply. Now we've had two of these in the last six years in 1973, 74 because of the Arab-Israeli war, in 1979 and into this year because of the Iranian revolution. And we're now witnessing a third interruption. The interruption of some 3 million barrels a day in export from Iraq and the small amount that was still coming out of Iran because of the war today between those two countries. We have not yet had evidence of panic buying as we did in the previous two cases because first demand is lower and secondly, the Saudis and some of the other OPEC and non OPEC nations have increased their production to make up the short fall caused by the cutting off of the Iranian and Iraqi supplies. And also because during the last crisis we built up very extensive stuff piles and those still exist and are being drawn down a little bit. However, if you look carefully at the oil market today you can see that the spot price of oil, that's the price for the oil that is bought not under contract, about 5% of the wells of oil out of Rotterdam, that that spot price is back up above the contract price. It's $40 a barrel now, and even more in a couple of cases. And also we find that all the price cutting, implicit price cutting and discount that was going on before the Arab-Iraqi war that has ended. And in fact, now premiums are being demanded by the OPEC suppliers and some of the non OPEC suppliers. So if the war continues without a truce and without the repair that needs to be affected at the facilities that have been damaged, then eventually we'll either be drawing down on that surplus that we built up or we will be facing a demand by the Arabs that we pay more for the price of oil by the OPEC nations. Demand will then press on supply. Prices will rise and then it will begin to see the panic buying occur and the gas lines form. And if the winter is a cold one, and we have to be prudent and anticipate that it's going to be cold, that's the only sensible hedge to make. But then we will want to reserve as much as we can for fuel oil supplies, which will make less available then for refining it to gasoline. So you can write a scenario for very quickly rising oil prices just within the next few months if there is not a truce and the beginning of a repair of the facilities that have been damaged. Saudi Arabia, the Gulf States and non OPEC nations can make up some of the difference in that short fall but how much for how long and at what price. Well, the problem of an interruption of this kind and we should learn that these are going to occur. We're not gonna solve the middle East. The middle East is Arab against Israel. The middle East is conservative against radical, it's Shia against Sunni, it's Palestinians against practically everybody else. These problems are gonna be with us for some time and so that supply is susceptible to interruption and there could be other accidents. So it could be a three mile Island accident that was indeed a disaster. And of course that would lead to a call for a shutdown of plants until the source of the disaster could be discovered and remedied if it could be. And that would cut off an important source and then cause pressure on the others. Well, the point is that we should understand that these interruptions are likely to occur and having understood that, we then should become even more alerted to the need to solve the economic and the political problems who enable us to bring more of our current adequate sources on line and to provide a hedge then against future interruptions that might occur. All right, that's the energy argument. And what about the food question that I think you're all interested in and seized with here in aims and in oil? Well, it's an interesting question. And if you look back in the literature you'll see that periodically we have had great worries about shortages of food. You'll have several speakers coming this week which we'll talk about that in very interesting ways. So listen carefully and see what they think of some of these ideas. Some of them will agree and I suspect some of them will not. Now a few years ago, there was a highly respected book. It achieved wide popularity, got good reviews. It predicted starvation in the world in the rather near future. And it looked at this grim prospect and it could recommend only one public policy and that public policy was called triage. Now triage is a term that was developed on the battlefields of France in world war one. At that time, when casualties were brought in from the battlefield and French supplies, medical supplies were very limited. The casualties were put into three groups. In one group, were put those with a seriously wounded, with lucky to survive without any medical attention or with very little. In a second group, were put those for whom it was felt medical attention would make the difference between life and death and so they got that medical assistance. And then finally in the third group, we put those that were still alive, felt nothing could be done for them even with the best of medical health. And so they were simply left to die. Now the authors of this book, projecting this famine and these grave shortages ahead, felt that this was the only way to deal with the food problem of the future. And in the appendix of that book, very conveniently, they've listed the countries of the world and put them in these various categories. And in that third category of they have to die, appear India, Egypt, Haiti, several important well-developed countries that have made great contributions to their people on this earth. The answer to them in effect was, \"Sorry fellas, you missed the bus, Donald too would go. Bye bye.\" The title of that book was \"Famine 1975\" That was five years ago. Where's the famine? And there are serious problems and this is not meant to minimize them. Very serious problems in South Asia today. Very political problems indeed but they're still serious for the people there or more continuously in the Saharan Africa, for example. And yet one can note that some of the Saharan countries are net exporters of food products even though their population, in some cases it's starving. And so there's something wrong there that doesn't have anything to do with the availability of supply. The argument here is that the future need hardly be bleak. We can use up fossil fuels. We can use up some raw materials. Food though is a renewable resource. New crops do follow old crops. And in fact, since world war two food production worldwide has increased faster than population increase worldwide. The difficulty of course is that most of the improvement per person has been in the advanced nations and the developed nations. And it has been less in the poor nations and what our scenario does in our book and in our studies is to estimate requirements for that future asymptotic population of 10 billion people. Actually, we did it in several scenarios including one for 30 billion people. And we point out that the requirements vary depending upon the climate the person is living in, the size of the person, the work being done so forth. And having set forth a model for the requirements for the future for different levels of population, We then show how these requirements could be met. And in our view, these involve three categories in the food production of which the first is still by far the most important. And the first we call conventional food production by conventional means. That is crops grown in open fields in the normal manner we understand agriculture to be. This can be enlarged still, by expanding acreage, by multi cropping and particularly by increasing yield per unit of land and doing so, increasingly through a high technology low energy advances, such as breeding the better nitrogen fixation or for improved photosynthesis or insect and disease control increasingly by genetic means rather than through pesticides and other chemical means. That's category one and it is the most important category. Category two is a very interesting one and that is conventional crops grown unconventionally and that is agriculture in other than open fields in controlled environments such as greenhouses or in special media such as in hydroponics or through a nutrient film techniques for example which have been proven at several research institutes now as very very effective for high cash crops. Not yet certainly for large field crops but for high cash crops, tomatoes, snow peas things like that, are very viable. Where waste is kept to a minimum, where quantity is increased, where growth can be speeded up, multi-layering across can be occurring and so forth. And then finally, the last category is called high-technology food production. That is unconventional food created unconventionally, manufactured foods such as single cell protein from glucose, something not now fit for human consumption but perhaps by the mid eighties commercially feasible for animal food, eventually perhaps the source for developing food analogs. So we argue that the case is easily made for more than adequate means to feed many times over a population of 10 billion people. The problem with food is not supply. The problem is distribution. Distribution occurs when there is funded demand. And so what is required therefore is either the allocation of resources for agricultural development for those countries that are so endowed and those countries that wish to do so or alternatively simply development in general. So that countries that don't grow their own food will have the means to go into the food markets of the world and purchase what they require. So we can have the energy and we can have the food we need to sustain a population of 10 billion and more even indefinitely and at a very high standard of living. And we think that these are the most difficult cases to make food and energy because as I said, we need new quantities every day. The argument can be extended and I can develop that if you wish during question period to include raw materials, to include the maintenance of clean air, clean water and the disposal of waste as well. I'm nearing my one hour so let me now sum up so we can leave some time for questions. The argument of this scenario and we like to call it a scenario, perhaps better than a prediction or better than a forecast of the future, is a path into the future that we believe is viable and can be followed. The argument is that a consensus can be reached and the problems related to growth. The problems that are so troubling, so contentious as a subject of so many of the doom and gloom forecasts. That that is possible by looking at this model of the future showing the change from pre-industrial to post-industrial and by looking at the resources that we need and showing the adequacy of their supply. And furthermore, I said at the beginning, this consensus must be reached so that we can turn our attention and our resources to the uncertain problems of the future where there is not even the semblance of a consensus yet and also so that we will have a surplus and the margin to deal, not the ups and downs to occur. So we argue that resources of the earth, it's energy, it's food, it's raw materials do not constitute a fixed pie but there are a growing pie. And what we use does not deprive others. Instead, what we use gives others the possibility of having more. Growth is necessary, growth is possible. This is not a mindless unlimited growth that devours and finally destroys the earth, but it's the growth that continues, that matures and that slows. And it's a growth that can make it possible for a world that is healthy and prosperous for all of its inhabitants, not just the fortunate few of Western Europe or North America or East Asia. This is a process that is underway. It need not be interrupted, it should not be interrupted. Any more than you would try to stop the growth of a 12 year old five foot boy out of fear that if you did not at the age of 24, he'd be 10 feet tall. So let me conclude on this note of hope and optimism. That's the note I want to leave you with. That's a note that our studies at Hudson leave us with. Let me conclude with a metaphor. You may have heard it because it's popular with the doom-sayers and the gloom-sayers. And what this metaphor does is to depict the 5 billion year physical history of the earth. So far as a 24 hour day. And it argues on this basis that human existence has taken just the last five minutes of that 24 hour day and recorded history just the last few seconds. Well, the metaphor stated in this fashion of course implies that midnight is near the day is almost over and the earth too. Well, I prefer to look at the metaphor differently. There is a general guess among physicists and geologists that the earth may last approximately 10 billion years more. If so, a third of the Earth's history has passed. And on the basis of that 24 hour day, this means that it is now 8:00 AM, the sun has just risen, the day has just begun and it's time to go to work. Thank you very much.\r\n\r\n- Thank you Dr. Martel for an excellent and very inspiring talk. I'm sure that a lot of you have some questions for Dr. Martel and we do have 15, 20 minutes to entertain these questions. So if you have a question, please raise your hand. It would help if you stand and enunciate very clearly so that we can all hear the area of inquiry.\r\n\r\n- Right back in the center there.\r\n\r\n- Did you hear that? Everybody hear the question okay?\r\n\r\n- No, I didn't mean to imply that, I meant to say that they all will develop, not that they will always follow the same path of development because it's clear that looking at nations in the world today, that while the nations who are now developed, mainly pass through paths from agricultural to industrial development. That that is not necessarily gonna be true for many of the nations that are now developing. In fact that have developed quite a bit. An outstanding example, of course, are the nations that are oil rich which will use the oil revenue to develop and not have to go through the other intermediate stages. Another good example, some of the East Asian nations, South Korea, for example, Singapore or Hong Kong who will have passive development, which are tied to particular opportunities for manufacturing or to service as entrepreneurial entre pose for carrying financial affairs and so forth. So the argument does not rest on a particular path of development nor actually does it rest in a particular ideology either. This argument is applicable whether we're dealing with a free enterprise economy or a controlled economy. Probably our own personal ideological preferences would be for free enterprise economy because that's the kind that we've grown up in and we're educated in and we believe in and one we certainly think is more efficient if we look for example, at the problems of the Soviet Union with 25% of the people in agriculture not being able to grow enough for its food. We would say yes, they've grown, they've developed but we believe the free enterprise model or more is a more efficient way to do that. But it does not rest on the same path of development, It does though rest on the notion of development itself.\r\n\r\n- Yes, sir.\r\n\r\n- Sure. Obviously as population increases and particularly as it begins to incur on areas where there are wildlife sanctuaries and so forth then public policy requires to the extent that citizenry desire these things to be protected, to set them aside and to protect them. Now, in this country, we've been very fortunate in having large areas that have been set aside by decisions that have been made earlier. And we see this as something that is a net gain for us, something we wanna preserve and protect. In other areas of the world just by virtue of historical development and also by choice or perhaps lack of choice, that policy hasn't been followed. We can point to one area of the world that has practically no willingness at all if it has any perhaps just in the fringe areas and yet is a very highly developed area where people live at a very high standard of living and that of course is Western Europe. Now, I would prefer and I suspect many Americans would prefer the continued protection of these sanctuaries. With an increased population, this becomes a matter much more for public policy particularly as people wanna use them as recreation areas. You'll begin to see things like rationing of space or reservations in public parks and some of the national forest areas for camping and so forth. And inevitably, I think more of this is going to occur to protect the resources that are there and also to provide for what we think is an important value to us. Public policy is gonna be required to step in. You probably saw this morning that president Carter signed the bill to preserve, I think it was a mid 104 million acres in Alaska which is for just that purpose and monitor. So I would hope it would be enlightened enough to deal with that as we go along.\r\n\r\n- Someone else. Yes, sir.\r\n\r\n- Well, what's the inflection point by definition marks a slowing of the rate of growth. So the total accumulation then is slow to the population. Instead of going like that, it goes like that.\r\n\r\n- Well, if I had a blackboard here, I'd draw you the curve and I'm talking about a logistic curve. And if you have a rate of growth that if we draw a curve this way and we have a zero rate of growth and we rise up the population, for example to rate of growth of say 2.1% which is the highest rate we reached with a wide population, and we slowed back down to zero rate of growth, We eventually get a stable of population, unless of course we lengthen out life indefinitely or to the point of immortality. And then all the people who have alive stay alive and don't die. That's the only way I can see where the number would continue to rise up to larger and larger dimensions.\r\n\r\n- Well, you and I need a blackboard up here.\r\n\r\n- All right. 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