{"@context":"http://iiif.io/api/presentation/3/context.json","id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/iiif/qz22b8w34v/manifest","type":"Manifest","label":{"en":["Conybeare, John A. C., Trade War"]},"logo":"https://d9jk7wjtjpu5g.cloudfront.net/organizations/logo_images/000/000/004/original/ISULogo.png?1601681107","metadata":[{"label":{"en":["Publisher"]},"value":{"en":["Iowa State University. Special Collections and University Archives"]}},{"label":{"en":["Identifier"]},"value":{"en":["RS008-006-053 (call number)","AV203809 (UID)"]}},{"label":{"en":["Description"]},"value":{"en":["This item was captioned by Rev.com in conformance with WCAG 2.1 AA accessibility guidelines. (accessibility)"]}},{"label":{"en":["Local Identifier"]},"value":{"en":["Lectures_AV203809"]}},{"label":{"en":["Rights Statement"]},"value":{"en":["Per request by the creator, access to this item is restricted to scholarly use only. (access)","This item is protected by copyright and/or related rights. 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speaker","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=10.16,12.49"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/3","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"in the global issue series.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=12.49,14.64"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/4","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"We're very happy to have you out here","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=14.64,16.806"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/5","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"on a very cold and chilly evening like tonight.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=16.806,20.09"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/6","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"We're very pleased to have with us","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=20.09,21.77"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/7","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"and our second speaker in global series","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=21.77,24.51"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/8","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"professor John Conybeare from the University of Iowa.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=24.51,27.673"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/9","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"Professor Conybeare comes well qualified","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=29.03,31.08"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/10","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"to talk to us about international trade issues.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=31.08,35.1"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/11","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"He is a native of Western Canada","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=35.1,38.37"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/12","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"grew up in Australia and was educated in the United States.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=38.37,42.63"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/13","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"He took his BA degree","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=42.63,45.32"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/14","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"from the Australian National University","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=45.32,47.78"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/15","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"has an (indistinct) PhD from Harvard University.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=47.78,51.06"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/16","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"He's an extraordinarily prolific scholar","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=51.06,53.34"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/17","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"for really a young scholar in the field.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=53.34,55.64"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/18","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"His latest book on trade war theory","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=55.64,59.05"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/19","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"and practice of international commercial rivalry,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=59.05,61.99"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/20","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"it's been widely aquatics.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=61.99,63.84"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/21","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"So now he's going to speak to us","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=63.84,65.3"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/22","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"on international trade disputes","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=65.3,67.37"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/23","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"explaining the dynamics of conflict.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=67.37,70.002"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/24","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"\u003cstrong\u003e Professor John:\u003c/strong\u003e Thank you.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=70.002,72.419"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/25","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"Thank you very much.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=73.384,74.217"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/26","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"I'm very pleased to be here.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=74.217,76.28"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/27","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"I'm gonna talk about a pretty good type","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=76.28,77.92"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/28","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"of international trade dispute, namely trade wars.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=77.92,80.17"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/29","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"Since that is my particular specialty in the moment.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=80.17,83.34"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/30","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"And let me start very briefly","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=83.34,84.73"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/31","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"by defining what I mean by trade wars.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=84.73,87.0"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/32","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"And by trade wars I simply mean trade disputes","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=87.0,90.07"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/33","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"that escalate to a very high degree of intensity.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=90.07,92.82"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/34","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"So I'm not really dealing","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=92.82,93.79"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/35","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"with fairly low level types of disputes.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=93.79,95.56"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/36","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"I'm dealing with highly conflictual international directions","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=95.56,99.72"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/37","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"that have several rounds of retaliation involved in them.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=99.72,103.71"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/38","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"I'm gonna adopt a fairly narrow definition","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=103.71,106.8"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/39","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"of what I mean by a trade war.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=106.8,108.67"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/40","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"And I'm gonna adopt a definition that defines trade 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events.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=117.741,120.26"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/45","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"I don't wanna deal with things like wars of plunder,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=120.26,123.09"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/46","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"for 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ends.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=134.87,138.053"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/53","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"My purpose here is to explain the process","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=139.01,141.98"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/54","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"and outcomes of different types of trade wars.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=141.98,145.14"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/55","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"And I'm going to, first of all","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=145.14,146.37"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/56","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"set out a very simple theoretical framework","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=146.37,149.01"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/57","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"and then give you three types of examples","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=149.01,151.488"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/58","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"which I think fit into this framework.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=151.488,153.763"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/59","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"Now, the way I'm gonna do it is to start off","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=155.15,156.87"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/60","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"with a very simple model of trade disputes","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=156.87,159.44"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/61","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"that builds on a few insights on trade theory","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=159.44,161.81"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/62","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"and these insights build primarily","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=161.81,164.23"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/63","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"on the idea of relative size of countries.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=164.23,168.1"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/64","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"And then I'm gonna step that out in terms of a few","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=168.1,170.53"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/65","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"very basic and simple games structures.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=170.53,172.763"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/66","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"As a basic model that I'm gonna look at","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=175.04,177.98"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/67","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"starts out with the idea national size.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=177.98,180.55"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/68","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"Now, if we assume that countries involved in trade disputes","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=180.55,185.14"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/69","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"are concerned essentially to maximize their national income","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=185.14,188.64"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/70","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"this gives us some fairly determinant predictions","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=188.64,190.89"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/71","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"about what countries will do.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=190.89,192.67"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/72","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"And to make a long story short,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=192.67,195.18"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/73","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"the basic prediction it gives us","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=195.18,196.96"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/74","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"is that countries can make large gains","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=196.96,199.16"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/75","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"in international trade conflicts","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=199.16,200.81"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/76","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"by taxing their foreign trade if they are big.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=200.81,203.53"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/77","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"These big countries can make large gains from taxing trade.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=203.53,206.56"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/78","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"Now without going into any economics,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=206.56,208.13"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/79","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"the simple reason for this is that big countries","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=208.13,210.43"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/80","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"can influence the prices of traded goods.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=210.43,213.18"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/81","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"So a large country can have a large influence","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=213.18,215.47"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/82","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"on the prices of the goods that are traded internationally.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=215.47,218.803"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/83","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"Small countries on the other hand","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=220.61,222.61"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/84","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"are highly unlikely to make large gains","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=222.61,225.13"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/85","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"from getting into a trade tax and disputes.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=225.13,227.92"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/86","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"Small countries generally cannot influence","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=227.92,230.31"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/87","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"the prices of goods in which they trade.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=230.31,232.36"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/88","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"And therefore there is very little for them to gain","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=232.36,235.1"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/89","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"by getting into major international trade taxing conflicts.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=235.1,238.473"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/90","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"So starting out with this first simple insight","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=239.4,241.86"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/91","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"both size and the relative benefits of being a large country","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=241.86,245.79"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/92","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"this can generate some simple types of bargaining structures","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=246.87,250.91"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/93","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"about what we might observe when we see countries","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=250.91,253.31"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/94","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"getting into international trade conflicts.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=253.31,256.06"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/95","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"And the first type is where you have a large country","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=256.06,259.02"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/96","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"versus a large country.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=259.02,260.0"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/97","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"In other words, two large countries","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=260.0,261.5"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/98","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"get into international trade dispute.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=261.5,264.27"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/99","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"A trade dispute where both of them are trying to make gains","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=264.27,268.21"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/100","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"by taxing each other's trade.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=268.21,269.883"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/101","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"The kind of bargaining structure that this generates","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=271.119,275.18"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/102","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"is a situation that is commonly known","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=275.18,277.07"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/103","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"as the prisoner's dilemma game.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=277.07,279.07"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/104","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"Now, I don't know how familiar you familiar you are","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=279.07,281.3"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/105","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"with the idea of the prisoner's dilemma game","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=281.3,283.48"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/106","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"but basically it's a game where each side","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=283.48,286.19"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/107","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"has a dominating strategy of not cooperating.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=286.19,289.01"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/108","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"It pays you to engage in some kind of predatory","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=289.01,292.7"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/109","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"for a non-cooperative action","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=292.7,294.69"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/110","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"regardless of what you think the other side is going to do.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=294.69,297.64"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/111","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"And I put the payoff structure for that kind of game up here","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=299.92,303.49"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/112","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"on the right hand side.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=303.49,305.09"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/113","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"And I'm assuming that you have two big countries, X and Y","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=305.09,308.64"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/114","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"and I'm simply plotting their utilities","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=308.64,310.62"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/115","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"or they payoffs on the two axes.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=310.62,313.04"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/116","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"And I'm using the notation of \"t\" for imposing a tariff","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=313.04,316.61"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/117","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"and \"nt\" for not imposing a tariff.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=316.61,318.763"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/118","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"And the prisoner's dilemma game structure","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=319.78,321.8"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/119","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"assuming that these are the only two options they have.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=321.8,324.62"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/120","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"We'll suggest a payoff structure that looks like 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cooperation","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=490.78,493.4"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/185","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"and they will start backing off and withdrawing","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=493.4,495.73"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/186","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"whatever predatory trade actions they've taken.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=495.73,498.89"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/187","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"So we have a simple and determinant prediction.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=498.89,501.283"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/188","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"If you have a small country","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=504.73,505.98"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/189","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"getting into a trade conflict with a large country","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=505.98,509.6"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/190","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"the nature of the game changes somewhat.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=509.6,511.6"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/191","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"A small country generally cannot gain","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=512.73,514.73"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/192","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"by getting into a trade conflict with a large country.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=514.73,517.56"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/193","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"And this is because, well for the reason I suggested before,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=517.56,521.79"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/194","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"that small countries cannot change the prices of the goods","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=521.79,525.496"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/195","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"in which they trade.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=525.496,526.81"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/196","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"So a small country, generally, at least in the extreme case","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=526.81,529.17"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/197","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"a small country can not change its terms of trade.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=529.17,532.21"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/198","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"And it will only hurt itself by imposing a tariff","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=532.21,535.11"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/199","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"or some kind of predatory trade action.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=535.11,537.06"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/200","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"A large country on the other hand","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=538.16,539.77"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/201","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"can probably gain by imposing","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=539.77,542.18"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/202","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"some kind of predatory trade restriction","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=542.18,544.047"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/203","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"from a small country even if the small country retaliates.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=544.047,548.41"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/204","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"And in that extreme case, you got to payoff structures","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=548.41,550.72"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/205","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"that looks like the one I put down there on the right.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=550.72,553.42"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/206","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"It is if both of them in post trade restrictions","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=554.29,556.43"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/207","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"you end up down here.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=556.43,558.0"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/208","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"This is the payoff where the large country imposes a tariff","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=558.0,560.387"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/209","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"and small country does not.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=560.387,562.6"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/210","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"This is where neither imposes a tariff","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=562.6,564.38"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/211","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"and this is where large one does not","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=564.38,566.933"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/212","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"and the small one does.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=566.933,569.5"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/213","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"Now, if you look at the incentives","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=569.5,571.61"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/214","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"that this creates for both countries","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=571.61,574.3"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/215","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"creates different incentives for each of them.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=574.3,577.21"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/216","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"The incentive created for the small country","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=577.21,579.34"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/217","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"is that it should not impose a tariff,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=579.34,580.93"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/218","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"regardless of what it thinks","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=580.93,582.08"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/219","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"the large country is going to do.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=582.08,583.64"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/220","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"There's absolutely no 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country","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=586.98,590.42"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/223","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"it would simply move its payoff down there.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=590.42,592.83"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/224","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"So we have to payoff the small country here","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=592.83,595.087"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/225","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"and the large country here.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=595.087,596.9"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/226","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"If it imposes a tariff and retaliation","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=596.9,599.47"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/227","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"it will simply move the payoff down there.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=599.47,601.76"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/228","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"So small countries get very little gain","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=601.76,603.86"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/229","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"from imposing trade restrictions on large countries","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=603.86,606.26"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/230","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"whether it's unilateral or in retaliation.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=606.26,608.773"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/231","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"The large country on the other hand","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=609.99,611.74"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/232","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"can make gains regardless of what the small country does.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=612.9,615.75"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/233","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"And the payoff or the game is gonna end up","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=616.68,619.21"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/234","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"somewhere around that point there","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=619.21,620.89"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/235","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"is where the large country exploits small country.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=620.89,624.556"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/236","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"So when you have a trade conflict situation","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=624.556,627.52"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/237","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"where a small country is bargaining with a large country,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=627.52,630.32"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/238","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"generally what you would expect to observe","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=630.32,632.16"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/239","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"at least given the simple theory","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=632.16,633.81"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/240","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"what you would expect to observe","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=633.81,635.21"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/241","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"is that the small country essentially gets beaten up","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=635.21,637.73"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/242","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"by the large country.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=637.73,638.563"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/243","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"And you have some kind of predatory outcome","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=638.563,641.06"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/244","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"whereby the large country imposes trade restrictions","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=641.06,644.64"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/245","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"on the small country","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=644.64,645.473"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/246","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"and the small country does not retaliate.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=645.473,647.54"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/247","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"Because if it does retaliate,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=647.54,648.95"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/248","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"it simply moves the payoff down to the left","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=648.95,652.48"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/249","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"and makes itself worse off.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=652.48,653.83"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/250","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"Before I illustrate this with a couple of examples","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=658.03,661.74"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/251","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"I'd like to step back a little bit in history.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=662.94,665.303"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/252","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"One of the interesting thing about trade wars","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=666.268,668.74"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/253","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"is that they are fairly recent.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=668.74,671.093"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/254","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"We tend not to observe major trade war history","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=673.27,677.5"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/255","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"prior to the late medieval period.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=677.5,679.87"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/256","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"And when I first discovered this","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=679.87,681.59"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/257","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"I thought it was a rather interesting finding.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=681.59,684.15"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/258","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"And I think that there are a number of reasons","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=684.15,686.32"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/259","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"why trade wars, according to my definition","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=686.32,689.72"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/260","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"of mutual trade taxation,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=689.72,691.907"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/261","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"there are a number of reasons why trade wars","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=691.907,694.03"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/262","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"are a relatively recent phenomenon.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=694.03,695.78"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/263","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"One of them is the structure leader national system.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=697.16,700.23"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/264","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"Now in the ancient and the medieval world","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=700.23,702.75"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/265","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"the international economic system","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=702.75,704.7"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/266","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"often tended to be a hedge ammonium system.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=704.7,707.49"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/267","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"If you have a system that was dominated by a single power","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=707.49,710.34"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/268","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"and the single power could simply prevent","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=711.18,713.2"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/269","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"any kind of trade taxing wars taking place.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=713.2,715.593"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/270","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"A second reason is the role of violence","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=717.13,721.1"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/271","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"in international conflict.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=721.1,722.4"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/272","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"In the ancient and medieval world","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=723.31,725.43"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/273","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"when trade conflicts began,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=725.43,727.07"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/274","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"they would quickly degenerate into violence","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=727.07,729.01"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/275","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"and they would be settled through violence.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=729.01,730.99"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/276","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"So they would be settled through violence","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=730.99,732.41"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/277","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"rather than through any kind of economic interaction","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=732.41,735.21"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/278","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"like trade taxes.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=735.21,736.343"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/279","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"We tend not to observe that today.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=737.35,739.93"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/280","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"Trade conflicts do not normally degenerate into violence.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=739.93,743.053"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/281","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"This may be because we now have some normative inhibitions","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=743.93,747.14"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/282","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"against using violence that you did not use to have.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=747.14,750.02"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/283","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"Although I suspect that the reason is more likely to be","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=750.02,753.36"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/284","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"that the opportunity costs the violence","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=753.36,755.31"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/285","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"is simply much higher now than it was","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=755.31,757.2"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/286","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"say five or 600 years ago.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=757.2,758.853"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/287","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"The third reason why trade wars","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=761.2,763.54"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/288","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"are a relatively modern phenomenon is the pattern of trade.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=763.54,768.09"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/289","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"In the ancient and medieval world,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=768.09,769.97"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/290","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"the patterns of trade were highly complimentary.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=769.97,773.07"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/291","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"That is to say, countries would produce","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=773.07,775.56"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/292","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"a very small range of commodities,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=775.56,777.93"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/293","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"generally vital commodities.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=777.93,779.33"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/294","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"And they would exchange them for other vital commodities","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=780.17,783.404"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/295","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"which they could not produce themselves.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=783.404,786.26"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/296","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"So in Classical Greece, for example,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=786.26,788.24"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/297","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"Athens produced wine and olives","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=788.24,791.0"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/298","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"and exchanged that for grain.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=791.0,793.16"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/299","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"Now grain was an essential import for Athens,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=793.16,795.09"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/300","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"without rain, Athens would have starved.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=795.09,797.38"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/301","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"So under that kind of trait pattern,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=797.38,799.51"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/302","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"getting into a trade war would be highly costly.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=799.51,803.17"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/303","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"In fact, it could be fatal.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=803.17,804.83"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/304","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"So the complimentary pattern trade,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=804.83,807.35"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/305","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"or as economist would say","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=807.35,808.78"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/306","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"the elasticity of demand for traded goods was very low.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=808.78,811.97"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/307","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"And that kind of situation","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=811.97,813.56"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/308","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"getting into a trade taxing war would be extremely costly","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=813.56,816.36"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/309","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"for the participants.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=816.36,817.69"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/310","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"And they simply did not do it.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=817.69,819.313"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/311","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"What I'd like to do now is to get into three examples","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=823.785,826.46"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/312","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"which illustrate these two types of basic 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routes.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=853.68,856.03"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/323","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"And England was trying to break into these trade routes.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=857.42,861.53"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/324","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"And what happened is that the two powers very 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power","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=866.6,869.93"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/327","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"over these Northern European trade routes.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=869.93,872.03"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/328","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"And what happened was they got into a major trade 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retaliate","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=884.46,887.35"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/333","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"and trade would simply break down.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=887.35,889.62"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/334","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"And trade would would stay broken down for several 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here","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=894.76,896.86"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/337","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"and they would start negotiating","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=896.86,898.56"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/338","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"trying to negotiate themselves back to a 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awhile.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=907.47,911.132"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/345","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"And then what would happen is one or the other side","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=911.132,913.85"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/346","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"would again initiate some kind of predatory action,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=913.85,916.73"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/347","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"which would generate retaliation, counter retaliation,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=916.73,919.84"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/348","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"counter, counter 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again.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=924.01,926.91"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/351","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"And this cycle these cycles went on for about 400 years","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=928.13,932.02"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/352","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"until the Hanseatic League finally collapsed.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=932.02,936.04"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/353","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"Although not for reasons related to the trade war.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=936.04,938.54"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/354","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"The interesting analytic 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cooperation.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=944.578,948.23"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/357","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"That is well, why that they could never","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=948.23,950.04"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/358","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"withdraw their predatory trade actions","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=950.04,952.47"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/359","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"and maintain a relatively cooperative","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=952.47,954.53"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/360","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"trade trading situation.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=954.53,956.023"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/361","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"I think there are several reasons for this.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=957.61,959.76"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/362","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"One is a variation on what economists refer to as","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=961.52,965.48"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/363","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"the chain stores paradox.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=965.48,966.993"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/364","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"The chain store paradox is a parable","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=972.18,976.15"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/365","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"about two firms in a market and they have two choices.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=976.15,981.15"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/366","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"One of the choices is to cooperate and divide up the 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example","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=1233.06,1235.56"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/461","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"lobbies the US government for protection.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=1235.56,1237.9"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/462","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"And they don't care if the 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treaties.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=1267.85,1271.38"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/471","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"And without going into a lot of historical detail","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=1271.38,1274.02"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/472","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"essentially what happened was that","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=1274.02,1275.74"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/473","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"the Italians went to the French","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=1275.74,1277.52"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/474","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"and demanded very large 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Italians","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=1328.54,1331.48"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/497","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"for about 10 years.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=1331.48,1332.87"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/498","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"Until after 10 years they decided the Italians","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=1332.87,1334.677"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/499","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"had been suitably punished","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=1334.677,1336.62"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/500","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"and they gave them their old tariffs back.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=1336.62,1339.46"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/501","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"So basically what happened was that","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=1339.46,1341.13"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/502","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"the Italians provoked a major trade war with the French","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=1341.13,1343.85"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/503","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"and they got badly beaten up.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=1343.85,1345.3"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/504","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"Which was pretty much what this kind of model predicts.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=1345.3,1348.56"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/505","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"And the game ended up down here","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=1348.56,1351.17"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/506","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"and eventually the French let the Italians","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=1351.17,1353.93"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/507","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"bring the game back up.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=1353.93,1355.33"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/508","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"Well, probably back up into that region near somewhere.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=1355.33,1358.163"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/509","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"One question that comes up here","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=1360.44,1362.14"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/510","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"is why is it that a small country","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=1362.14,1366.85"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/511","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"would deliberately provoke a trade war with a large country?","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=1366.85,1369.87"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/512","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"Surely it wants to know that it would get severely punished.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=1369.87,1372.933"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/513","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"Well, one answer to this question is that countries","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=1374.31,1376.35"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/514","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"like individuals do not always have rational expectations.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=1376.35,1379.42"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/515","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"That is they don't always understand","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=1379.42,1381.06"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/516","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"what the payoff structure was.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=1381.06,1382.68"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/517","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"And what happened in this case was that the Italians thought","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=1382.68,1386.27"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/518","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"that their agricultural exports to France","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=1386.27,1388.25"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/519","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"were indispensable.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=1388.25,1389.39"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/520","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"They thought that that deprived","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=1389.39,1391.44"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/521","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"of Italian wine and olive oil","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=1391.44,1393.37"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/522","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"the French would quickly be brought to their knees","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=1393.37,1395.47"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/523","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"and sued for peace.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=1395.47,1396.6"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/524","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"For they soon realized that they were mistaken.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=1396.6,1398.963"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/525","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"The second problem is the problem","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=1400.661,1402.773"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/526","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"that I just mentioned a few moments ago","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=1402.773,1405.61"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/527","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"and that is the problem of accurately directing retaliation.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=1405.61,1408.97"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/528","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"Now the main lobbying force in Italy for this trade war","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=1408.97,1412.5"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/529","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"where the Italian manufacturing industries","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=1412.5,1414.69"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/530","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"they wanted to be 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heavily","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=1418.74,1420.59"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/533","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"for a trade war with France,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=1420.59,1422.09"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/534","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"and they didn't care if the French retaliated","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=1422.09,1424.14"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/535","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"because the French could only retaliate","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=1424.14,1425.97"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/536","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"against the Italian exports, which was wine and olive oil.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=1425.97,1429.21"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/537","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"So it's the same problem that we have now","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=1429.21,1431.22"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/538","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"that the US steel industry lobbies for protection","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=1431.22,1433.7"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/539","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"and it doesn't really care","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=1433.7,1434.86"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/540","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"what kind of retaliation eventuates.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=1434.86,1437.17"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/541","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"A third reason why the Italians","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=1440.12,1444.58"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/542","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"may have initiated a trade war with France","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=1444.58,1446.61"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/543","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"is that they underestimated.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=1446.61,1448.04"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/544","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"They greatly underestimated the 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alliances","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=1462.689,1466.15"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/551","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"in Europe at that time.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=1466.15,1467.463"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/552","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"Now at this time Italy had just 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Italy","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=1484.06,1485.87"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/559","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"out of the Triple Alliance.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=1485.87,1487.4"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/560","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"So one of the reasons why that the French 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Italy.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=1506.64,1507.96"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/567","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"There was a major trade war between Germany and Russia","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=1507.96,1510.61"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/568","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"at this 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up","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=1517.7,1519.82"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/573","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"having to make large concessions","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=1519.82,1521.33"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/574","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"to bring the trade relationship","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=1521.33,1522.99"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/575","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"back to a semblance of cooperation.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=1522.99,1525.143"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/576","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"Again, I think one of the reasons why the Russians 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structure.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=1531.12,1533.75"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/579","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"They thought that Germany would very quickly give in","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=1533.75,1536.85"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/580","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"when it was deprived the Russian, agricultural goods.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=1536.85,1539.46"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/581","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"And again, they turned out to be drastically wrong.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=1539.46,1542.01"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/582","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"France and Switzerland also had a major trade war","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=1542.99,1545.85"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/583","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"at this time.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=1545.85,1546.683"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/584","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"And the dynamics were very similar.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=1546.683,1548.74"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/585","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"Switzerland deliberately provoke the tariff war with France","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=1548.74,1551.63"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/586","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"and got beaten up and ended up making very large concessions","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=1551.63,1554.89"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/587","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"in order to get the trade situation back","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=1554.89,1558.25"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/588","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"to some semblance of cooperation.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=1558.25,1560.083"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/589","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"So it's very easy to find examples","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=1561.59,1563.45"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/590","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"of small versus large power trade conflicts","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=1563.45,1565.74"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/591","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"that look very much like this is payoff structure","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=1565.74,1568.3"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/592","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"that you can derive","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=1568.3,1569.52"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/593","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"from the very simple income maximizing concept","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=1569.52,1572.71"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/594","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"of trade conflict.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=1572.71,1574.163"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/595","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"The third example I'd like to say","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=1576.9,1578.32"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/596","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"is slightly more complicated.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=1578.32,1580.72"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/597","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"And this is the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Wars","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=1580.72,1584.254"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/598","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"of the inter-war period.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=1584.254,1585.839"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/599","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"The Smoot-Hawley tariff was passed in 1930","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=1585.839,1588.74"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/600","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"and it initiated a period of major trade restrictions","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=1588.74,1591.93"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/601","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"in the world.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=1591.93,1592.763"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/602","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"The Hawley-Smoot Tariff Wars illustrate a couple of points.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=1595.796,1599.74"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/603","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"One is, a problem of what happens","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=1599.74,1604.74"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/604","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"when you have an international trading system","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=1604.85,1607.14"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/605","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"with a large number of countries.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=1607.14,1608.813"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/606","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"And in particular,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=1609.86,1610.92"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/607","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"when you have a large number of countries,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=1610.92,1612.44"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/608","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"all practicing so-called MFN rule.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=1612.44,1615.163"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/609","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"Now NFN stands for most favored nation.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=1617.73,1620.62"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/610","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"And that the MFN rule is simply a rule","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=1620.62,1623.19"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/611","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"in international trade that you cannot give concessions","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=1623.19,1627.73"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/612","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"to one country that you do not give to everybody.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=1627.73,1630.393"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/613","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"So if the United States were to reduce the tariff","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=1632.27,1634.66"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/614","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"on television sets, for example","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=1634.66,1636.97"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/615","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"it would have to give that tariff concession","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=1636.97,1638.66"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/616","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"to everybody who exports television sets to United States,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=1638.66,1641.69"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/617","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"not just one or some or a few countries.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=1641.69,1643.993"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/618","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"Now this poses a major problem.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=1645.89,1649.13"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/619","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"And it's a problem which analytically","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=1649.13,1651.4"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/620","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"is known as a public good problems.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=1651.4,1653.313"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/621","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"Now the public good problem here","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=1656.44,1658.27"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/622","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"is that when you have an international trading system","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=1658.27,1660.323"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/623","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"with most favored nation norms,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=1660.323,1662.71"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/624","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"there's a very strong incentive for countries to hang back","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=1662.71,1666.38"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/625","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"and refuse to negotiate at all.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=1666.38,1669.07"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/626","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"And the reason for this is simply 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negotiations.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=1677.88,1680.53"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/631","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"And this is commonly referred to as a public good problem.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=1680.53,1684.12"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/632","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"It's a public good problem, because you cannot be punished","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=1684.12,1686.85"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/633","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"for your uncooperative behavior.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=1686.85,1688.593"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/634","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"Now this kind of system should fairly quickly 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1920s.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=1707.87,1710.17"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/641","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"The second point that comes out","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=1712.648,1714.18"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/642","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"in the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Wars","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=1714.18,1715.86"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/643","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"is the benefits of being a large country.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=1717.3,1720.193"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/644","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"And one of the things that broke down the 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Tariff.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=1747.92,1751.713"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/653","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"And the Fordney-McCumber Tariff passed in 1922.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=1755.63,1758.1"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/654","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"It was a tariff bill that said, first of 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autonomous.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=1761.38,1763.42"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/657","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"That is to say, \"Not negotiable.\"","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=1763.42,1765.08"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/658","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"So the US was saying to the rest of the 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country.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=1791.24,1794.43"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/671","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"It is trying to use its far getting power","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=1794.43,1797.29"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/672","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"to get a very asymmetric payoff right over there.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=1797.29,1800.943"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/673","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"Now this worked,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=1802.15,1803.34"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/674","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"at least it worked throughout most of the 1920s.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=1803.34,1805.95"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/675","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"United States was able to successfully","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=1805.95,1807.77"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/676","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"implement this strategy.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=1807.77,1809.27"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/677","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"And it was able to successfully coerce a number of countries","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=1809.27,1812.48"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/678","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"into giving it large tariff concessions,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=1812.48,1814.57"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/679","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"basically in return for nothing.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=1814.57,1816.17"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/680","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"There were a few countries that fought back.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=1817.67,1819.97"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/681","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"One of them was France.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=1819.97,1821.09"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/682","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"But even the French eventually gave 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countries","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=2019.46,2021.53"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/749","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"and negotiate on particular commodities.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=2021.53,2023.93"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/750","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"And then it could just go from country to 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countries.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=2034.84,2038.693"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/755","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"And this has several advantages.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=2039.8,2041.83"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/756","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"One is the obvious advantage of asymmetric bargaining 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countries","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=2049.67,2053.73"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/759","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"that the US negotiated with were countries","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=2053.73,2056.52"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/760","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"which only exported raw materials to the United 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commodity.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=2085.24,2087.87"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/769","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"So, for example, if the tariff rate on import of cars","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=2087.87,2092.06"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/770","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"into the United States was 50%,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=2092.06,2094.83"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/771","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"but US car makers have to import steel","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=2094.83,2098.04"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/772","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"and pay a tariff on that steel.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=2098.04,2099.67"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/773","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"Then the effective rate of protection cars","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=2099.67,2101.57"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/774","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"in the United States is less than 50%,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=2101.57,2103.96"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/775","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"because they pay a penalty tariff on their inputs.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=2103.96,2106.59"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/776","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"So if the United States simply lowers the tariffs","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=2106.59,2109.37"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/777","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"on raw materials, but leaves all other tariffs the same","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=2109.37,2112.93"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/778","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"then the effective rate of protection","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=2112.93,2114.3"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/779","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"for manufacturing industries in this country","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=2114.3,2116.21"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/780","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"actually goes up.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=2116.21,2117.71"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/781","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"And that's exactly what was happening during the 1930s.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=2117.71,2119.977"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/782","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"The United States was going out","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=2119.977,2121.82"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/783","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"and it was only negotiating with small weak countries","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=2121.82,2124.72"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/784","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"and lowering the tariffs and long materials.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=2124.72,2126.5"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/785","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"So it was actually raising the effective rate of protection","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=2126.5,2129.38"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/786","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"for US manufacturing industries.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=2129.38,2131.693"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/787","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"And the general result of this","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=2135.95,2139.26"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/788","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"was that during a period of time","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=2139.26,2141.62"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/789","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"when the United States was getting a lot of credit","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=2141.62,2143.66"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/790","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"for bringing the world back to free trade","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=2143.66,2145.607"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/791","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"it was in fact enhancing the tariff protection","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=2145.607,2149.19"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/792","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"for US manufacturing industries.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=2149.19,2151.35"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/793","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"Let me give a couple of general conclusions.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=2155.95,2158.393"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/794","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"One, is that the initial predictions","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=2159.62,2163.3"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/795","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"of a very simple game structure seemed to work fairly well.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=2163.3,2167.203"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/796","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"That is to say, large countries do seem","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=2167.203,2169.7"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/797","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"to get into prisoner's dilemma type","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=2169.7,2171.68"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/798","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"international trade conflict.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=2171.68,2173.44"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/799","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"They don't always evolve","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=2173.44,2174.51"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/800","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"into a pattern of cooperation, however.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=2174.51,2177.0"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/801","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"Because there are a large number of things","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=2177.0,2178.52"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/802","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"that can intervene.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=2178.52,2179.563"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/803","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"Unequal size countries tend to get","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=2181.42,2183.64"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/804","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"into very asymmetric conflict.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=2183.64,2185.62"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/805","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"And in every instance where I've been able to find","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=2185.62,2187.7"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/806","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"a trade conflict between a large and a small country","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=2187.7,2190.52"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/807","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"it generally ends up over here somewhere.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=2190.52,2193.07"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/808","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"That is with the small country getting beaten up","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=2193.07,2195.04"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/809","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"by the big country.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=2195.04,2196.28"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/810","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"I could not find any cases where a small country","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=2198.12,2200.9"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/811","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"has been able to successfully out maneuver","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=2200.9,2203.0"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/812","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"or get a more favorable outcome from a large country","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=2203.0,2205.98"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/813","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"in the trade dispute.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=2205.98,2207.03"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/814","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"The second general point I would make","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=2209.14,2210.48"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/815","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"is that there are lots of things that can intervene","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=2210.48,2213.32"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/816","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"in these games structures.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=2213.32,2214.36"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/817","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"They're obviously very simple","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=2214.36,2215.62"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/818","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"and perhaps unrealistic abstractions.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=2215.62,2217.593"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/819","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"Some of the things which can intervene","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=2219.18,2220.72"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/820","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"are first of all, economic recessions.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=2220.72,2223.333"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/821","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"Most trade wars begin during economic recessions.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=2224.53,2227.94"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/822","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"In fact, all of the trade wars","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=2227.94,2229.15"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/823","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"that I've ever been able to discover","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=2229.15,2230.66"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/824","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"begin during economic recessions.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=2230.66,2232.76"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/825","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"Either secular and macro economic recessions","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=2232.76,2236.12"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/826","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"or sectoral recessions in particular industries.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=2236.12,2239.103"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/827","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"I think the reason for this","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=2240.48,2241.6"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/828","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"is that when a country's national income is declining","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=2241.6,2244.82"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/829","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"the marginal gains from extracting","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=2244.82,2247.08"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/830","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"some kind of predatory income redistribution","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=2247.08,2250.41"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/831","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"are much greater.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=2250.41,2251.243"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/832","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"So there's a much greater incentive to gain","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=2251.243,2253.89"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/833","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"or initiate some kind of predatory trade policy session.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=2253.89,2257.373"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/834","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"The second thing that can mess up these simple models","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=2259.05,2261.3"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/835","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"are transaction costs.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=2261.3,2262.37"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/836","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"That is these very simple game structures","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=2262.37,2264.32"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/837","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"assume that there are no costs to bargaining.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=2264.32,2266.4"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/838","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"But in the real world,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=2266.4,2267.48"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/839","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"there frequently are very high costs to bargaining.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=2267.48,2270.03"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/840","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"The third and very important problem is domestic politics.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=2271.61,2275.84"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/841","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"Now, this is a model which simply assumes","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=2275.84,2277.53"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/842","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"that there is no domestic politics going on.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=2277.53,2280.41"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/843","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"And when domestic politics comes in,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=2280.41,2282.45"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/844","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"very clearly domestic politics can leave countries","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=2282.45,2285.78"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/845","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"to adopt strategies that is not in their interests","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=2285.78,2289.11"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/846","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"given these game structures.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=2289.11,2291.04"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/847","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"And an obvious example would be in small countries","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=2291.04,2293.42"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/848","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"where there may be interest in small countries","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=2293.42,2295.85"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/849","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"that wants that small country to get into a trade war.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=2295.85,2298.56"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/850","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"Even though it would have a very punishing effect","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=2298.56,2300.61"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/851","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"on the company as a whole.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=2300.61,2301.9"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/852","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"That is to say certain sectors","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=2301.9,2303.84"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/853","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"in that small country may benefit,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=2303.84,2305.56"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/854","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"even though the small country as a whole","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=2305.56,2307.4"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/855","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"may lose very heavily.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=2307.4,2308.703"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/856","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"The fourth thing that can mess up the very simple models","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=2310.69,2313.32"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/857","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"is linkage to other games.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=2313.32,2315.25"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/858","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"And as I said before,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=2315.25,2316.503"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/859","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"trade games often get linked into larger political","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=2318.11,2321.66"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/860","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"and military games.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=2321.66,2324.16"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/861","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"And these are often very difficult to predict.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=2324.16,2326.21"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/862","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"In fact, I would say they're impossible to predict","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=2326.21,2328.33"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/863","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"because you simply cannot predict the way","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=2328.33,2329.92"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/864","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"in which the games are going to be linked together.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=2329.92,2331.97"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/865","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"So any explanation of those kinds of things","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=2331.97,2334.24"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/866","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"I think has to be relatively ad hoc.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=2334.24,2336.083"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/867","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"Another general problem that comes in","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=2342.53,2345.01"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/868","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"is the problem of numbers or the public good problem.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=2345.01,2348.34"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/869","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"And the main example of this","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=2348.34,2350.13"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/870","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"is when you have an international trading system","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=2350.13,2352.72"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/871","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"with most favored nation norms.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=2352.72,2355.15"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/872","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"And that's exactly what we have now","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=2355.15,2356.68"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/873","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"the current general agreement","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=2356.68,2358.53"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/874","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"for international trade and tariffs, or the GATT.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=2358.53,2361.283"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/875","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"Is a system which has in stride in it","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=2362.47,2364.807"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/876","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"the most favorite nation rule.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=2364.807,2365.993"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/877","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"That is you cannot give a a trade concession","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=2365.993,2368.66"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/878","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"to one GATT member that you do not give it to everybody.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=2368.66,2371.46"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/879","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"And this poses some major negotiating problems.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=2372.5,2374.8"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/880","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"This is a very strong incentive for countries","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=2374.8,2377.99"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/881","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"especially large countries","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=2377.99,2379.54"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/882","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"simply to not participate in GATT negotiations","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=2379.54,2382.55"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/883","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"because they know that they will get the benefits","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=2382.55,2385.21"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/884","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"whether they offer any concessions themselves or not.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=2385.21,2387.86"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/885","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"Now GATT has fortunately,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=2388.95,2390.41"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/886","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"been able to deal with this problem.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=2390.41,2392.017"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/887","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"And the way GATT has dealt with this problem is by","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=2392.017,2395.1"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/888","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"what I refer to as the principle supplier method","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=2395.1,2397.93"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/889","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"of negotiation is in every single GATT negotiation","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=2397.93,2401.67"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/890","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"going right back to the post-war period","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=2401.67,2403.785"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/891","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"virtually all of the trade negotiation goes on","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=2403.785,2406.75"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/892","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"between a small group of large countries","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=2406.75,2410.37"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/893","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"who are offering mutual concessions on commodities","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=2410.37,2413.33"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/894","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"that they trade with each other.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=2413.33,2414.93"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/895","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"Now, the net effect of that is that the benefits of GATT","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=2415.96,2419.05"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/896","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"has been largely confined to a small group","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=2419.05,2421.21"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/897","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"of developing countries, developed,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=2421.21,2422.77"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/898","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"I should say, developed countries.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=2422.77,2424.64"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/899","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"And I think somebody at the world bank, Jonathan Finger","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=2424.64,2428.28"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/900","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"did a tally of all the trade concessions","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=2428.28,2430.24"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/901","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"that have been granted in the GATT negotiations","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=2430.24,2432.66"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/902","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"since World War II.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=2432.66,2433.82"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/903","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"And he suggested that about 95% of the trade concessions","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=2433.82,2437.135"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/904","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"that would have been negotiated in GATT","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=2437.135,2439.36"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/905","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"have been trade concessions exchanged","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=2439.36,2441.11"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/906","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"between a group of about six countries.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=2441.11,2443.06"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/907","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"Now, one long-term effect of that","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=2444.09,2445.68"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/908","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"is that the developing countries","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=2445.68,2447.28"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/909","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"have gained very little from GATT.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=2447.28,2448.39"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/910","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"And they gain very little from GATT","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=2448.39,2450.79"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/911","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"because they have nothing to offer in return.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=2450.79,2453.33"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/912","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"And this has been a major source of complaint","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=2453.33,2455.93"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/913","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"by the developing countries.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=2455.93,2457.33"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/914","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"One other thing GATT can do to prevent","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=2458.66,2461.27"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/915","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"this kind of most favored nation problem arising","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=2461.27,2464.84"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/916","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"is to suspend the most favorite nation norm.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=2464.84,2467.76"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/917","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"And that there is in fact, a rule in GATT that says","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=2467.76,2470.55"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/918","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"that the most favored nation rule can be suspended","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=2470.55,2473.11"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/919","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"if a country flagrantly violates the rules of GATT.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=2474.06,2477.52"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/920","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"As far as I know this rule has never been invoked.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=2477.52,2480.48"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/921","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"I suspect because it would probably set","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=2480.48,2482.4"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/922","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"a rather ugly precedent.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=2482.4,2483.693"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/923","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"A third general conclusion that I would make","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=2485.73,2488.01"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/924","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"is with regard to the role of large powers","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=2488.01,2491.13"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/925","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"in the international trading system.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=2491.13,2493.72"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/926","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"There's a very popular theory in political science","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=2493.72,2497.22"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/927","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"or international relations called hegemonic stability theory","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=2497.22,2500.56"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/928","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"and hegemonic stability theory","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=2505.13,2506.99"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/929","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"is a well, I'm not sure I would call it a theory.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=2508.58,2510.5"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/930","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"It's a set of propositions, which argues","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=2510.5,2513.45"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/931","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"that big countries in the world create free trading systems.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=2513.45,2518.16"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/932","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"This is they try to lower trade barriers","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=2518.16,2519.81"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/933","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"and create global free trade.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=2519.81,2521.363"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/934","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"I think this is wrong.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=2524.68,2527.5"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/935","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"It's wrong, theoretically.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=2527.5,2529.29"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/936","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"It's wrong theoretically,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=2529.29,2530.47"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/937","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"because big countries face chaos structure","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=2530.47,2532.88"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/938","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"that looks rather like that.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=2532.88,2534.103"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/939","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"This is, it would seem to me that if big countries","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=2534.103,2536.31"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/940","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"are simply trying to maximize their economic gains","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=2536.31,2539.46"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/941","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"in the world they will engage in predation.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=2539.46,2542.23"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/942","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"They will impose high trade barriers on smaller countries.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=2542.23,2545.33"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/943","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"In other words, the big guys will go around beating up","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=2545.33,2548.31"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/944","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"the little guys rather than helping them.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=2548.31,2550.45"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/945","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"Historically, I think hegemonic stability theory","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=2552.28,2555.9"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/946","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"is also on a very weak basis.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=2555.9,2557.773"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/947","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"Throughout history whenever we observe large countries","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=2559.1,2562.61"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/948","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"dominating the international trading system.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=2562.61,2565.02"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/949","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"What we also observe is that those large countries","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=2565.02,2567.99"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/950","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"can engage in highly predatory activities.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=2567.99,2570.51"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/951","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"That is the tax, the trade of smaller powers","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=2570.51,2573.06"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/952","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"smaller powers that are too weak to resist.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=2573.06,2575.21"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/953","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"Now that the people who believe","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=2576.28,2577.47"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/954","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"in hegemonic stability theory always cite two examples","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=2577.47,2581.15"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/955","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"that they think confirms their proposition.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=2581.15,2585.41"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/956","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"One is the example of England in the 19th century.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=2585.41,2588.6"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/957","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"And as you probably know, England adopted free trade","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=2588.6,2592.32"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/958","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"from about the 1840s up to 1915.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=2592.32,2594.727"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/959","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"And the hegemonic stability theory say,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=2594.727,2596.437"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/960","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"\"Well, here's the perfect example","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=2596.437,2598.12"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/961","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"that proves our hypothesis.\"","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=2598.12,2600.277"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/962","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"Well, one of the problems, well, it is true","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=2601.89,2604.33"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/963","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"that England adopted free trade during this period.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=2604.33,2606.98"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/964","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"Though I would also point out two things.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=2606.98,2608.55"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/965","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"One is that historically,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=2608.55,2609.88"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/966","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"this was a major aberration for England.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=2609.88,2612.69"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/967","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"England was a highly protectionist country before that time","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=2612.69,2616.91"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/968","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"and that for that time.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=2616.91,2617.743"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/969","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"A second problem with this thesis","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=2618.76,2620.67"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/970","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"is that Britain's turn to free trade","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=2620.67,2624.48"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/971","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"can be explained very simply in terms","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=2624.48,2626.68"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/972","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"of a particular structure, interest group activity","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=2626.68,2629.55"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/973","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"that existed in Britain at that time.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=2629.55,2631.49"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/974","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"And that is to say that there was a group of industrialists","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=2631.49,2636.07"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/975","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"namely the cotton textile manufacturers","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=2636.07,2638.35"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/976","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"who stood to gain very heavily","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=2638.35,2640.25"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/977","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"from Britain moving to free trade at that time.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=2640.25,2642.83"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/978","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"And they single handedly bankrolled the parliamentary lobby","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=2642.83,2646.33"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/979","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"which helped move the House of Commons to pass the abolition","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=2646.33,2649.8"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/980","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"of the corn laws and Britain's move to free trade.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=2649.8,2652.63"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/981","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"So in so far as Britain did adopt free trade","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=2652.63,2655.81"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/982","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"for a brief period of time,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=2655.81,2657.35"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/983","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"it wasn't because of any particular gains","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=2657.35,2660.47"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/984","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"to Britain as a country, it was simply because","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=2660.47,2663.27"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/985","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"there was a very powerful industrial lobby in Britain","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=2663.27,2665.99"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/986","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"that stood to gain through trade.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=2665.99,2668.208"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/987","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"Now, the other example","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=2668.208,2669.263"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/988","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"that the hegemonic stability theorists always cite","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=2669.263,2672.32"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/989","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"is of course, the United States after World War II.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=2672.32,2675.36"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/990","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"And it is true that the United States,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=2675.36,2677.15"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/991","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"to some extent promoted free trade in the 1950s and '60s.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=2677.15,2681.1"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/992","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"Although again, I would point out,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=2681.1,2682.38"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/993","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"first of all, that that is a historical aberration","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=2682.38,2684.62"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/994","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"for the United States.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=2684.62,2686.345"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/995","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"Before that time, the United States","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=2686.345,2688.09"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/996","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"was one of the most protectionist countries in the world","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=2688.09,2691.11"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/997","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"and at the moment it's certain or from the 1970s onwards","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=2691.11,2694.15"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/998","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"it seems to be moving back in that direction.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=2694.15,2696.4"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/999","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"Another problem with this idea that the United States","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=2697.6,2701.15"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/1000","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"was promoting free trade in the post-world world","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=2701.15,2703.72"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/1001","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"is that as I pointed out a few minutes ago,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=2704.99,2707.86"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/1002","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"when the United States negotiated","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=2707.86,2709.89"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/1003","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"in international trade after World War II,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=2709.89,2712.34"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/1004","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"it did so on a strict principle supplier base.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=2712.34,2715.22"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/1005","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"That is, it would only give trade concessions","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=2715.22,2717.81"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/1006","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"to countries that could give it","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=2717.81,2719.28"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/1007","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"equivalent trade concessions in return.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=2719.28,2721.98"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/1008","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"And I think that that hardly amounts","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=2721.98,2723.73"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/1009","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"to promoting global free trade.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=2723.73,2725.52"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/1010","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"That's simply the bilateral exchange of benefits.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=2725.52,2728.053"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/1011","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"And of course US trade policies since the war","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=2731.3,2733.7"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/1012","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"has always been very carefully hedged with escape clauses.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=2733.7,2737.86"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/1013","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"That is the United States","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=2737.86,2738.693"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/1014","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"could always get out of the trade deal if it wanted to.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=2738.693,2741.593"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/1015","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"So I think that the very popular hegemonic stability idea","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=2742.807,2746.54"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/1016","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"that large countries perceived free trade","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=2746.54,2748.6"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/1017","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"is both analytically wrong and historically wrong.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=2748.6,2751.793"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/1018","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"Thank you.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=2752.82,2754.24"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/1019","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"(audience clapping)","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=2754.24,2757.24"}]},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232","type":"AnnotationPage","label":{"en":["English [Transcript]"]},"items":[{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25232/annotation/1020","type":"Annotation","motivation":"subtitling","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"https://d9jk7wjtjpu5g.cloudfront.net/file_transcripts/associated_files/000/025/232/original/AV203809_Trade_War_a.vtt?1620122956","format":"text/vtt","language":"en"},"target":"https://d9jk7wjtjpu5g.cloudfront.net/file_transcripts/associated_files/000/025/232/original/AV203809_Trade_War_a.vtt?1620122956"}]},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25233","type":"AnnotationPage","label":{"en":["AV203809_Trade_War_a.txt [Transcript]"]},"items":[{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149/transcript/25233/annotation/1021","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"- [Instructor] Welcome to our second speaker in the global issue series. We're very happy to have you out here on a very cold and chilly evening like tonight. We're very pleased to have with us and our second speaker in global series professor John Conybeare from the University of Iowa. Professor Conybeare comes well qualified to talk to us about international trade issues. He is a native of Western Canada grew up in Australia and was educated in the United States. He took his BA degree from the Australian National University has an PhD from Harvard University. He's an extraordinarily prolific scholar for really a young scholar in the field. His latest book on trade war theory and practice of international commercial rivalry, it's been widely aquatics. So now he's going to speak to us on international trade disputes explaining the dynamics of conflict.\r\n\r\n- [Professor John] Thank you. Thank you very much. I'm very pleased to be here. I'm gonna talk about a pretty good type of international trade dispute, namely trade wars. Since that is my particular specialty in the moment. And let me start very briefly by defining what I mean by trade wars. And by trade wars I simply mean trade disputes that escalate to a very high degree of intensity. So I'm not really dealing with fairly low level types of disputes. I'm dealing with highly conflictual international directions that have several rounds of retaliation involved in them. I'm gonna adopt a fairly narrow definition of what I mean by a trade war. And I'm gonna adopt a definition that defines trade wars as disputes where both the means and the ends are primarily economic. And I do that simply to give myself a reasonably well bounded set of events. I don't wanna deal with things like wars of plunder, for example where military means are used for economic ends. And I don't want to deal with things like economic boycotts where economic means are used for military . So I'm simply dealing with trade wars which involve economic means used for economic ends. My purpose here is to explain the process and outcomes of different types of trade wars. And I'm going to, first of all set out a very simple theoretical framework and then give you three types of examples which I think fit into this framework. Now, the way I'm gonna do it is to start off with a very simple model of trade disputes that builds on a few insights on trade theory and these insights build primarily on the idea of relative size of countries. And then I'm gonna step that out in terms of a few very basic and simple games structures. As a basic model that I'm gonna look at starts out with the idea national size. Now, if we assume that countries involved in trade disputes are concerned essentially to maximize their national income this gives us some fairly determinant predictions about what countries will do. And to make a long story short, the basic prediction it gives us is that countries can make large gains in international trade conflicts by taxing their foreign trade if they are big. These big countries can make large gains from taxing trade. Now without going into any economics, the simple reason for this is that big countries can influence the prices of traded goods. So a large country can have a large influence on the prices of the goods that are traded internationally. Small countries on the other hand are highly unlikely to make large gains from getting into a trade tax and disputes. Small countries generally cannot influence the prices of goods in which they trade. And therefore there is very little for them to gain by getting into major international trade taxing conflicts. So starting out with this first simple insight both size and the relative benefits of being a large country this can generate some simple types of bargaining structures about what we might observe when we see countries getting into international trade conflicts. And the first type is where you have a large country versus a large country. In other words, two large countries get into international trade dispute. A trade dispute where both of them are trying to make gains by taxing each other's trade. The kind of bargaining structure that this generates is a situation that is commonly known as the prisoner's dilemma game. Now, I don't know how familiar you familiar you are with the idea of the prisoner's dilemma game but basically it's a game where each side has a dominating strategy of not cooperating. It pays you to engage in some kind of predatory for a non-cooperative action regardless of what you think the other side is going to do. And I put the payoff structure for that kind of game up here on the right hand side. And I'm assuming that you have two big countries, X and Y and I'm simply plotting their utilities or they payoffs on the two axes. And I'm using the notation of \"t\" for imposing a tariff and \"nt\" for not imposing a tariff. And the prisoner's dilemma game structure assuming that these are the only two options they have. We'll suggest a payoff structure that looks like this is this payoff structure here is for example a payoff where big country X imposes a tariff and big country Y does not. Now, if you look at the structure of payoffs here the first thing you will note is that it pays each country to impose a tariff on the other one, regardless of what it thinks the other country is going to do. So from the perspective of country X, for example, country X will look at that payoff structure and say to itself, \"What should I do?\" Well, if country Y does not impose a tariff, then I have a choice of being at this payoff or at that payoff. Well, clearly I'd rather be at that payoff. So if Y chooses to cooperate and not impose a tariff then I should not cooperate in imposing tariffs. On the other hand, what if country Y chooses to impose a tariff? On that case I have a choice between being here and being here. And again, I would rather be here than here. So the other country chooses not to cooperate and impose a tariff, I'm still a better off imposing a tariff. So the simple analytic structure of the prisoner's dilemma type game the two large countries can get into is very simple. And it's the structure that suggested to both sides that they are better off imposing some kind of predatory trade action on the other, regardless of what they think the other countries is going to do. And that is the simple structure of the prisoner's dilemma game. Now, if we assume that this kind of game is being played over time then the story will change. Because what will happen in this game is clearly both countries will impose a tariff and they will find themselves at that payoff there. And one would assume that after they played this game over a period of time, they will realize that there's some mutually superior outcome. And the prediction of the dynamic prisoner's dilemma model is that over time it should evolve into some pattern of cooperation. Usually as the parties adopt some kind of strategy of contingent retaliation the most common one being referred to as tit for tat. So have each of them adopt some kind of contingent tit for tat strategy the game ought to evolve into some pattern of cooperation. So the general prediction that comes out of this is that when we observe two large countries getting into a major trade conflict what we might expect to observe is first of all the game would start off in very uncooperative. They'll both be trying to tax each other's trade and they will get into a major trade conflict. Very much like the kinds of trade conflicts that we commonly observed between the US and the EMC over the past 15 years, 20 years. However, when the game goes on for long period of time they will recognize the gains from cooperation and they will start backing off and withdrawing whatever predatory trade actions they've taken. So we have a simple and determinant prediction. If you have a small country getting into a trade conflict with a large country the nature of the game changes somewhat. A small country generally cannot gain by getting into a trade conflict with a large country. And this is because, well for the reason I suggested before, that small countries cannot change the prices of the goods in which they trade. So a small country, generally, at least in the extreme case a small country can not change its terms of trade. And it will only hurt itself by imposing a tariff or some kind of predatory trade action. A large country on the other hand can probably gain by imposing some kind of predatory trade restriction from a small country even if the small country retaliates. And in that extreme case, you got to payoff structures that looks like the one I put down there on the right. It is if both of them in post trade restrictions you end up down here. This is the payoff where the large country imposes a tariff and small country does not. This is where neither imposes a tariff and this is where large one does not and the small one does. Now, if you look at the incentives that this creates for both countries creates different incentives for each of them. The incentive created for the small country is that it should not impose a tariff, regardless of what it thinks the large country is going to do. There's absolutely no gains to the small country imposing a tariff. If it imposes a tariff unilaterally on a large country it would simply move its payoff down there. So we have to payoff the small country here and the large country here. If it imposes a tariff and retaliation it will simply move the payoff down there. So small countries get very little gain from imposing trade restrictions on large countries whether it's unilateral or in retaliation. The large country on the other hand can make gains regardless of what the small country does. And the payoff or the game is gonna end up somewhere around that point there is where the large country exploits small country. So when you have a trade conflict situation where a small country is bargaining with a large country, generally what you would expect to observe at least given the simple theory what you would expect to observe is that the small country essentially gets beaten up by the large country. And you have some kind of predatory outcome whereby the large country imposes trade restrictions on the small country and the small country does not retaliate. Because if it does retaliate, it simply moves the payoff down to the left and makes itself worse off. Before I illustrate this with a couple of examples I'd like to step back a little bit in history. One of the interesting thing about trade wars is that they are fairly recent. We tend not to observe major trade war history prior to the late medieval period. And when I first discovered this I thought it was a rather interesting finding. And I think that there are a number of reasons why trade wars, according to my definition of mutual trade taxation, there are a number of reasons why trade wars are a relatively recent phenomenon. One of them is the structure leader national system. Now in the ancient and the medieval world the international economic system often tended to be a hedge ammonium system. If you have a system that was dominated by a single power and the single power could simply prevent any kind of trade taxing wars taking place. A second reason is the role of violence in international conflict. In the ancient and medieval world when trade conflicts began, they would quickly degenerate into violence and they would be settled through violence. So they would be settled through violence rather than through any kind of economic interaction like trade taxes. We tend not to observe that today. Trade conflicts do not normally degenerate into violence. This may be because we now have some normative inhibitions against using violence that you did not use to have. Although I suspect that the reason is more likely to be that the opportunity costs the violence is simply much higher now than it was say five or 600 years ago. The third reason why trade wars are a relatively modern phenomenon is the pattern of trade. In the ancient and medieval world, the patterns of trade were highly complimentary. That is to say, countries would produce a very small range of commodities, generally vital commodities. And they would exchange them for other vital commodities which they could not produce themselves. So in Classical Greece, for example, Athens produced wine and olives and exchanged that for grain. Now grain was an essential import for Athens, without rain, Athens would have starved. So under that kind of trait pattern, getting into a trade war would be highly costly. In fact, it could be fatal. So the complimentary pattern trade, or as economist would say the elasticity of demand for traded goods was very low. And that kind of situation getting into a trade taxing war would be extremely costly for the participants. And they simply did not do it. What I'd like to do now is to get into three examples which illustrate these two types of basic interactions. The first one I'd like to mention is a trade war that took place over a period of about 400 years. This was a trade war between England and the Hanseatic League. Now the Hanseatic League was a Confederation of about 200 cities in Northern Germany. And in the early medieval period these cities acquired total control over all of the Northern European trade routes. And England was trying to break into these trade routes. And what happened is that the two powers very quickly came into major economic conflict over who would acquire a monopoly and monopsony power over these Northern European trade routes. And what happened was they got into a major trade war, major trade taxing war. What would happen is that one of them would impose some kind of predatory trade restrictions on the other. The other would retaliate the first one counter retaliate and trade would simply break down. And trade would would stay broken down for several years. And then they would both realize that they were at this situation here and they would start negotiating trying to negotiate themselves back to a situation for your trade. Which they would do. It usually took about five or 10 years to do so, but they succeeded. And then what would happen is they would stay at this payoff for awhile. And then what would happen is one or the other side would again initiate some kind of predatory action, which would generate retaliation, counter retaliation, counter, counter retaliation and the trades trading system within breakdown and fall back to a mutually non-cooperative outcome again. And this cycle these cycles went on for about 400 years until the Hanseatic League finally collapsed. Although not for reasons related to the trade war. The interesting analytic question about the Anglo-Hanseatic War is why they could never maintain the state of cooperation. That is well, why that they could never withdraw their predatory trade actions and maintain a relatively cooperative trade trading situation. I think there are several reasons for this. One is a variation on what economists refer to as the chain stores paradox. The chain store paradox is a parable about two firms in a market and they have two choices. One of the choices is to cooperate and divide up the market and make mutually and will maximize their short-term gains. And the other is to get into a price war and try to drive the other firm out of the market. Now, in the short-term, they're better off cooperating but in the long-term one of them may be better off in driving the other firm out of the market. And one of the issues that comes up in this kind of prisoner's dilemma situation at least in this particular one is both England and the Hanseatic League felt it in the long-term they would be better off by trying to drive the other actor right out of the market. And one of the reasons why this prisoner's dilemma game could never evolve into a pattern of cooperation and stay there was that each of them was trying to drive the other one out of the market. Second reason why cooperation can be hard to sustain is simply the transaction costs. There's bargaining is not a costless activity. And at this period of time, bargaining was extremely costly. It was often very difficult to get information on who you should be bargaining with. It was difficult to engage in bargaining. Putting together a negotiating team and sending it to the other side, could easily take about five years. And it was also physically dangerous, being on a negotiating team going from England up to say the Northern European port of Dante was physically very dangerous for the negotiators. And on more than one occasion the English negotiators themselves were taken hostage and ransom back to England. Another transaction costs was that diplomacy was extremely costly. And at this time, most of European rulers lived from hand to mouth. And most of them attempted to minimize their diplomatic activity and they minimize it simply because it was extremely costly. And one of the reasons why England eventually set up regulated state trading companies was to try to force the merchants to bear some of the costs of commercial diplomacy. A third, fourth, I mean. Fourth and probably the most important reason why this type of prisoner's dilemma game may not evolve into any pairing of cooperation is the difficulty of accurately directing retaliation. Now the typical idea of the prisoner's dilemma game evolving into cooperation through retaliation assumes that you can direct retaliation against whichever party originated some kind of predatory action against you. However, this may not always be possible. And during the Anglo-Hanseatic Wars that was a major problem. And here's an example of how it occurred. English pirates would quite often prey on Hanseatic merchant ships. What will happen then is the people who own these ships would then go back to their Hanseatic port and they would get what was called a letter of reprisal. And this letter of reprisal would entitle them to seize the goods of any English merchant that they could get their hands on, which they then did. And these English merchants within the agreed. So they would then go back to England and got a letter of reprisal which entitled them to seize goods of equal value from any Hanseatic merchant which they could get their hands on. And so retaliation would lead to very rapid escalation in any kind of trade dispute. So retaliation is not conducive to restraint in a situation where it cannot be actively directed. It would be rather like a situation you might have someone who was mugged in New York City could go to their local police precincts and get a letter of reprisal authorizing them to mug the first person they saw who was in the same ethnic background as the person mugged them and that person could in turn do the same and so on and so on. Well, that would obviously be conducive to highly escalating social conflict. So retaliation is only conducive to restraint when you can direct that retaliation accurately. And there are great many traits situations where retaliation can not be accurately directed. And that was not only true at that time it's still true today. The US steel industry, for example lobbies the US government for protection. And they don't care if the Europeans or the Japanese retaliate because they can't retaliate against the US steel industry. They retaliate against other US industries. So it's exactly the same kind of problem. The second case I'd like to mention is the Franco-Italian Trade Wars of late 19th century. This was a trade war which began in 1886 when Italy started revising its trade treaties. And without going into a lot of historical detail essentially what happened was that the Italians went to the French and demanded very large concessions. Is the Italians demanded that the French give very large concessions on the export of Italian agricultural goods into France. And they threatened the French with retaliation that the French didn't agree. And the French response was basically tell the Italians to get lost. They said, \"No, we're not agreeing to give you any concessions and don't even ask.\" So the Italians thinking that they had a very strong bargaining position applied punitive trade barriers to France. And the French retaliated and the Italians counter retaliated and they got into a major trade war very quickly over a period of about six months. What happened then was that the Italians quickly realized they had made a gasoline mistake and they started asking the French to make peace and the French refused. So the Italians removed all of their penalty tariffs against French and the French kept on punishing the Italians for about 10 years. Until after 10 years they decided the Italians had been suitably punished and they gave them their old tariffs back. So basically what happened was that the Italians provoked a major trade war with the French and they got badly beaten up. Which was pretty much what this kind of model predicts. And the game ended up down here and eventually the French let the Italians bring the game back up. Well, probably back up into that region near somewhere. One question that comes up here is why is it that a small country would deliberately provoke a trade war with a large country? Surely it wants to know that it would get severely punished. Well, one answer to this question is that countries like individuals do not always have rational expectations. That is they don't always understand what the payoff structure was. And what happened in this case was that the Italians thought that their agricultural exports to France were indispensable. They thought that that deprived of Italian wine and olive oil the French would quickly be brought to their knees and sued for peace. For they soon realized that they were mistaken. The second problem is the problem that I just mentioned a few moments ago and that is the problem of accurately directing retaliation. Now the main lobbying force in Italy for this trade war where the Italian manufacturing industries they wanted to be protected against the more efficient French manufacturing industries. So they were lobbying very heavily for a trade war with France, and they didn't care if the French retaliated because the French could only retaliate against the Italian exports, which was wine and olive oil. So it's the same problem that we have now that the US steel industry lobbies for protection and it doesn't really care what kind of retaliation eventuates. A third reason why the Italians may have initiated a trade war with France is that they underestimated. They greatly underestimated the incentives that France had to punish them. The problem here is that trade wars often get linked into much larger political and military games. And in this case, the trade war with France became linked into the structure of military alliances in Europe at that time. Now at this time Italy had just joined the Triple Alliance with Germany. This was a military Alliance of Germany, Italy, and Austria. And the French family felt extremely threatened by this Alliance. And they used the punishment of the trade war as a way of trying to force Italy out of the Triple Alliance. So one of the reasons why that the French wanted or needed to punish Italy so severely was to try to force it out of a military Alliance that the French felt very threatening. There were several other trade wars at this time that they were virtually identical this trade war between France and Italy. There was a major trade war between Germany and Russia at this time. And it followed almost the same pattern. It is to say the Russians initiated and provoked the tariff war with Germany. They got severely punished and they ended up having to make large concessions to bring the trade relationship back to a semblance of cooperation. Again, I think one of the reasons why the Russians initiated a trade war with Germany is that they really didn't understand the payoff structure. They thought that Germany would very quickly give in when it was deprived the Russian, agricultural goods. And again, they turned out to be drastically wrong. France and Switzerland also had a major trade war at this time. And the dynamics were very similar. Switzerland deliberately provoke the tariff war with France and got beaten up and ended up making very large concessions in order to get the trade situation back to some semblance of cooperation. So it's very easy to find examples of small versus large power trade conflicts that look very much like this is payoff structure that you can derive from the very simple income maximizing concept of trade conflict. The third example I'd like to say is slightly more complicated. And this is the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Wars of the inter-war period. The Smoot-Hawley tariff was passed in 1930 and it initiated a period of major trade restrictions in the world. The Hawley-Smoot Tariff Wars illustrate a couple of points. One is, a problem of what happens when you have an international trading system with a large number of countries. And in particular, when you have a large number of countries, all practicing so-called MFN rule. Now NFN stands for most favored nation. And that the MFN rule is simply a rule in international trade that you cannot give concessions to one country that you do not give to everybody. So if the United States were to reduce the tariff on television sets, for example it would have to give that tariff concession to everybody who exports television sets to United States, not just one or some or a few countries. Now this poses a major problem. And it's a problem which analytically is known as a public good problems. Now the public good problem here is that when you have an international trading system with most favored nation norms, there's a very strong incentive for countries to hang back and refuse to negotiate at all. And the reason for this is simply that if everybody is adhering to the most favored nation norm then you can refuse to negotiate your tariffs at all but you can get the benefit of everybody else's tariffs negotiations. And this is commonly referred to as a public good problem. It's a public good problem, because you cannot be punished for your uncooperative behavior. Now this kind of system should fairly quickly unravel. It is if you have a most favored nation system and a lot of countries are simply holding back, not negotiating and getting the benefits of everybody else's negotiations, one would expect that the system should break down fairly quickly. And that's exactly what happened in the 1920s. The second point that comes out in the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Wars is the benefits of being a large country. And one of the things that broke down the system in the 1920s was the actions of the United States which I'll come back to in a moment. It is the United States was a major player in the system and it refused to negotiate its tariffs but it's still demand that the benefits of most favored nation rules from anybody else. What the United States did in the 1920s was to pass tariff bill called Fordney-McCumber Tariff. And the Fordney-McCumber Tariff passed in 1922. It was a tariff bill that said, first of all that the US trade barriers are what they referred to as autonomous. That is to say, \"Not negotiable.\" So the US was saying to the rest of the world, \"We will not negotiate our tariffs with anybody.\" The second thing the Fordney-McCumber Tariff bill said was we demand that everybody else give us most favored nation status. In other words, we demand to get the benefits of everybody else's tariff negotiations. And thirdly, United States declared that it would punish any countries that did not give it most favored nation status. So the United States was playing what in terms of this theory is the ideal strategy for a large country. It is trying to use its far getting power to get a very asymmetric payoff right over there. Now this worked, at least it worked throughout most of the 1920s. United States was able to successfully implement this strategy. And it was able to successfully coerce a number of countries into giving it large tariff concessions, basically in return for nothing. There were a few countries that fought back. One of them was France. But even the French eventually gave in. However, the us ended up pushing this strategy too far. And once the us passed the Smoot-Hawley Tariff in 1930 which raised the level of protection. Well, it almost doubled the level of protection in the United States. Once the US did this, it triggered global retaliation. And the effect of this global retaliation was to remove the public good problem. Because what countries did was they stopped giving most favored nation status. They simply refuse to give most favored nation status to other countries. And in particular, they started negotiating on the basis of the bilateral quotas. So countries moved very quickly to remove this bargaining problem. It is a bilateral all international negotiations. At that point, the US had a major problem. It was subject to global retaliation. So quite a lot of the gains that it had made through its predatory tariff policy of the 1920s had been nullified. So the US then changed its tactics. And the change in tactics came about with a major trade deal in 1934. It was called the reciprocal trade agreements amendment. And this trade bill authorized the president to go out and negotiate bilateral trade treaties with other countries on a most favored nation basis. Now, the traditional interpretation of this change in US policy is that it heralded a new era. It's a new era in which the United States began to lead the world back to free trade. Unfortunately, this seems to me to be something about historical myth. Because if you look at what the United States actually did it wasn't really a change in strategy. It was simply a change in tactics. It is the US was performing the same kind of predatory trade policy, but by slightly more subtle means. And there were two major means by which the US implemented this trade strategy. One was to use a method of negotiation that is called the principal supplier technique. What the principal supplier technique is, is that you pick out other countries that are your sole suppliers of a particular commodity and you can then offer to lower the tariff on that commodity on a most favored nation basis but nobody else gets the benefit, because nobody else exports that commodity to you. So, for example, if Brazil were the sole supplier of coffee to the United States and the United States was the sole was the sole supplier of cars to Brazil, Brazil and the United States could exchange tariff reductions and those two commodities on a principal supplier basis. And even though they would still be adhering to the most favored nation rule, nobody else would benefit. And the United States use this strategy very well. It used it as a kind of divide and conquer strategy. Because what it could do was to then break down the wall of global retaliation country by country. It could go to individual countries and negotiate on particular commodities. And then it could just go from country to country gradually breaking down the wall of global retaliation, which is exactly what it did. The second thing that the United States did was to negotiate only with small, weak countries. And this has several advantages. One is the obvious advantage of asymmetric bargaining power is even exert more influence over a small country. Another advantage was that most of the small, weak countries that the US negotiated with were countries which only exported raw materials to the United States. And this was a was a very clever strategy on the part of the US. The reason is that it actually raised the effective rate of protection in the United States. Now the effective rate of protection is the rate of protection on a commodity adjusted downwards to reflect the tariffs that might be paid on the inputs that are imported in use to make that commodity. So, for example, if the tariff rate on import of cars into the United States was 50%, but US car makers have to import steel and pay a tariff on that steel. Then the effective rate of protection cars in the United States is less than 50%, because they pay a penalty tariff on their inputs. So if the United States simply lowers the tariffs on raw materials, but leaves all other tariffs the same then the effective rate of protection for manufacturing industries in this country actually goes up. And that's exactly what was happening during the 1930s. The United States was going out and it was only negotiating with small weak countries and lowering the tariffs and long materials. So it was actually raising the effective rate of protection for US manufacturing industries. And the general result of this was that during a period of time when the United States was getting a lot of credit for bringing the world back to free trade it was in fact enhancing the tariff protection for US manufacturing industries. Let me give a couple of general conclusions. One, is that the initial predictions of a very simple game structure seemed to work fairly well. That is to say, large countries do seem to get into prisoner's dilemma type international trade conflict. They don't always evolve into a pattern of cooperation, however. Because there are a large number of things that can intervene. Unequal size countries tend to get into very asymmetric conflict. And in every instance where I've been able to find a trade conflict between a large and a small country it generally ends up over here somewhere. That is with the small country getting beaten up by the big country. I could not find any cases where a small country has been able to successfully out maneuver or get a more favorable outcome from a large country in the trade dispute. The second general point I would make is that there are lots of things that can intervene in these games structures. They're obviously very simple and perhaps unrealistic abstractions. Some of the things which can intervene are first of all, economic recessions. Most trade wars begin during economic recessions. In fact, all of the trade wars that I've ever been able to discover begin during economic recessions. Either secular and macro economic recessions or sectoral recessions in particular industries. I think the reason for this is that when a country's national income is declining the marginal gains from extracting some kind of predatory income redistribution are much greater. So there's a much greater incentive to gain or initiate some kind of predatory trade policy session. The second thing that can mess up these simple models are transaction costs. That is these very simple game structures assume that there are no costs to bargaining. But in the real world, there frequently are very high costs to bargaining. The third and very important problem is domestic politics. Now, this is a model which simply assumes that there is no domestic politics going on. And when domestic politics comes in, very clearly domestic politics can leave countries to adopt strategies that is not in their interests given these game structures. And an obvious example would be in small countries where there may be interest in small countries that wants that small country to get into a trade war. Even though it would have a very punishing effect on the company as a whole. That is to say certain sectors in that small country may benefit, even though the small country as a whole may lose very heavily. The fourth thing that can mess up the very simple models is linkage to other games. And as I said before, trade games often get linked into larger political and military games. And these are often very difficult to predict. In fact, I would say they're impossible to predict because you simply cannot predict the way in which the games are going to be linked together. So any explanation of those kinds of things I think has to be relatively ad hoc. Another general problem that comes in is the problem of numbers or the public good problem. And the main example of this is when you have an international trading system with most favored nation norms. And that's exactly what we have now the current general agreement for international trade and tariffs, or the GATT. Is a system which has in stride in it the most favorite nation rule. That is you cannot give a a trade concession to one GATT member that you do not give it to everybody. And this poses some major negotiating problems. This is a very strong incentive for countries especially large countries simply to not participate in GATT negotiations because they know that they will get the benefits whether they offer any concessions themselves or not. Now GATT has fortunately, been able to deal with this problem. And the way GATT has dealt with this problem is by what I refer to as the principle supplier method of negotiation is in every single GATT negotiation going right back to the post-war period virtually all of the trade negotiation goes on between a small group of large countries who are offering mutual concessions on commodities that they trade with each other. Now, the net effect of that is that the benefits of GATT has been largely confined to a small group of developing countries, developed, I should say, developed countries. And I think somebody at the world bank, Jonathan Finger did a tally of all the trade concessions that have been granted in the GATT negotiations since World War II. And he suggested that about 95% of the trade concessions that would have been negotiated in GATT have been trade concessions exchanged between a group of about six countries. Now, one long-term effect of that is that the developing countries have gained very little from GATT. And they gain very little from GATT because they have nothing to offer in return. And this has been a major source of complaint by the developing countries. One other thing GATT can do to prevent this kind of most favored nation problem arising is to suspend the most favorite nation norm. And that there is in fact, a rule in GATT that says that the most favored nation rule can be suspended if a country flagrantly violates the rules of GATT. As far as I know this rule has never been invoked. I suspect because it would probably set a rather ugly precedent. A third general conclusion that I would make is with regard to the role of large powers in the international trading system. There's a very popular theory in political science or international relations called hegemonic stability theory and hegemonic stability theory is a well, I'm not sure I would call it a theory. It's a set of propositions, which argues that big countries in the world create free trading systems. This is they try to lower trade barriers and create global free trade. I think this is wrong. It's wrong, theoretically. It's wrong theoretically, because big countries face chaos structure that looks rather like that. This is, it would seem to me that if big countries are simply trying to maximize their economic gains in the world they will engage in predation. They will impose high trade barriers on smaller countries. In other words, the big guys will go around beating up the little guys rather than helping them. Historically, I think hegemonic stability theory is also on a very weak basis. Throughout history whenever we observe large countries dominating the international trading system. What we also observe is that those large countries can engage in highly predatory activities. That is the tax, the trade of smaller powers smaller powers that are too weak to resist. Now that the people who believe in hegemonic stability theory always cite two examples that they think confirms their proposition. One is the example of England in the 19th century. And as you probably know, England adopted free trade from about the 1840s up to 1915. And the hegemonic stability theory say, \"Well, here's the perfect example that proves our hypothesis.\" Well, one of the problems, well, it is true that England adopted free trade during this period. Though I would also point out two things. One is that historically, this was a major aberration for England. England was a highly protectionist country before that time and that for that time. A second problem with this thesis is that Britain's turn to free trade can be explained very simply in terms of a particular structure, interest group activity that existed in Britain at that time. And that is to say that there was a group of industrialists namely the cotton textile manufacturers who stood to gain very heavily from Britain moving to free trade at that time. And they single handedly bankrolled the parliamentary lobby which helped move the House of Commons to pass the abolition of the corn laws and Britain's move to free trade. So in so far as Britain did adopt free trade for a brief period of time, it wasn't because of any particular gains to Britain as a country, it was simply because there was a very powerful industrial lobby in Britain that stood to gain through trade. Now, the other example that the hegemonic stability theorists always cite is of course, the United States after World War II. And it is true that the United States, to some extent promoted free trade in the 1950s and '60s. Although again, I would point out, first of all, that that is a historical aberration for the United States. Before that time, the United States was one of the most protectionist countries in the world and at the moment it's certain or from the 1970s onwards it seems to be moving back in that direction. Another problem with this idea that the United States was promoting free trade in the post-world world is that as I pointed out a few minutes ago, when the United States negotiated in international trade after World War II, it did so on a strict principle supplier base. That is, it would only give trade concessions to countries that could give it equivalent trade concessions in return. And I think that that hardly amounts to promoting global free trade. That's simply the bilateral exchange of benefits. And of course US trade policies since the war has always been very carefully hedged with escape clauses. That is the United States could always get out of the trade deal if it wanted to. So I think that the very popular hegemonic stability idea that large countries perceived free trade is both analytically wrong and historically wrong. Thank you.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112149#t=0.0,2762.03102"}]}]},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112150","type":"Canvas","label":{"en":["Media File 2 of 2 - AV203809_Trade_War_b.mp3"]},"duration":234.0049,"width":640,"height":40,"thumbnail":[{"id":"https://d9jk7wjtjpu5g.cloudfront.net/collection_resource_files/thumbnails/000/112/150/small/lecture.png?1620122960","type":"Image","format":"image/png"}],"items":[{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112150/content/1","type":"AnnotationPage","items":[{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112150/content/2/annotation/1","type":"Annotation","motivation":"painting","body":{"id":"https://aviary-p-iastate.s3.wasabisys.com/collection_resource_files/resource_files/000/112/150/original/AV203809_Trade_War_b.mp3?1620122960","type":"Audio","format":"audio/mpeg","duration":234.0049,"width":640,"height":40},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112150","metadata":[]}]}],"annotations":[{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112150/transcript/25234","type":"AnnotationPage","label":{"en":["AV203809_Trade_War_b.vtt [Transcript]"]},"items":[{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112150/transcript/25234/annotation/1","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"\u003cstrong\u003e -:\u003c/strong\u003e And a prisoner's dilemma that you know","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112150#t=6.65,8.42"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112150/transcript/25234/annotation/2","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"you have a fixed end point.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112150#t=8.42,9.88"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112150/transcript/25234/annotation/3","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"\u003cstrong\u003e -:\u003c/strong\u003e Yes.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112150#t=9.88,10.713"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112150/transcript/25234/annotation/4","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"\u003cstrong\u003e -:\u003c/strong\u003e Because the solution to a prisoner's dilemma,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112150#t=10.713,12.25"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112150/transcript/25234/annotation/5","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"even though it's iterated a number of times,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112150#t=12.25,14.454"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112150/transcript/25234/annotation/6","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"but a finite number of times, and you know","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112150#t=14.454,16.826"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112150/transcript/25234/annotation/7","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"when a regime's gonna come to an end,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112150#t=16.826,18.962"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112150/transcript/25234/annotation/8","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"the dynamic programming solution to that","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112150#t=18.962,21.71"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112150/transcript/25234/annotation/9","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"is to play prisoner's dilemma every single time.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112150#t=21.71,24.17"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112150/transcript/25234/annotation/10","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"\u003cstrong\u003e -:\u003c/strong\u003e Yes, exactly.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112150#t=24.17,25.25"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112150/transcript/25234/annotation/11","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"Exactly. The game unravels right back to the beginning.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112150#t=25.25,29.41"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112150/transcript/25234/annotation/12","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"\u003cstrong\u003e -:\u003c/strong\u003e That's right now,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112150#t=29.41,30.243"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112150/transcript/25234/annotation/13","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"could that have been an explanation for like your first","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112150#t=30.243,35.243"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112150/transcript/25234/annotation/14","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"historical example?","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112150#t=35.5,36.85"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112150/transcript/25234/annotation/15","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"\u003cstrong\u003e -:\u003c/strong\u003e Well, I don't think so because the game didn't have any","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112150#t=36.85,39.82"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112150/transcript/25234/annotation/16","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"determinant end point.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112150#t=39.82,41.47"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112150/transcript/25234/annotation/17","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"\u003cstrong\u003e -:\u003c/strong\u003e But if you perceive the regime","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112150#t=41.47,43.81"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112150/transcript/25234/annotation/18","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"is weak or is that a stable,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112150#t=43.81,45.501"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112150/transcript/25234/annotation/19","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"then you can predict that the next period, maybe it's last.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112150#t=45.501,48.637"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112150/transcript/25234/annotation/20","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"And so you should not block it.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112150#t=48.637,51.1"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112150/transcript/25234/annotation/21","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"\u003cstrong\u003e -:\u003c/strong\u003e Okay. So it becomes like it changed","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112150#t=51.1,56.08"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112150/transcript/25234/annotation/22","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"or argument based","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112150#t=56.08,56.913"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112150/transcript/25234/annotation/23","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"\u003cstrong\u003e -:\u003c/strong\u003e Exactly","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112150#t=56.913,57.746"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112150/transcript/25234/annotation/24","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"that you put the other guy out of business.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112150#t=57.746,60.8"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112150/transcript/25234/annotation/25","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"Sure. Yes, you can.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112150#t=60.8,62.4"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112150/transcript/25234/annotation/26","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"Although it seems to me that's more,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112150#t=62.4,64.217"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112150/transcript/25234/annotation/27","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"that's more of a chain store argument and a kind of end","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112150#t=64.217,66.92"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112150/transcript/25234/annotation/28","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"point argument. Isn't it?","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112150#t=66.92,67.76"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112150/transcript/25234/annotation/29","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"I mean, you, you don't know,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112150#t=67.76,69.11"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112150/transcript/25234/annotation/30","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"the other guy is going to be forced out of business.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112150#t=69.11,70.9"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112150/transcript/25234/annotation/31","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"They three rounds from now.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112150#t=70.9,72.493"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112150/transcript/25234/annotation/32","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"You hope he will,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112150#t=73.827,75.03"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112150/transcript/25234/annotation/33","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"but you don't know that","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112150#t=75.03,76.081"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112150/transcript/25234/annotation/34","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"\u003cstrong\u003e -:\u003c/strong\u003e Negotiating with nations and you're","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112150#t=76.081,78.06"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112150/transcript/25234/annotation/35","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"negotiating with sitting prime ministers, et cetera.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112150#t=78.06,80.63"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112150/transcript/25234/annotation/36","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"And reputation is something that is typically not passed on","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112150#t=80.63,83.8"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112150/transcript/25234/annotation/37","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"to one administration to another.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112150#t=83.8,85.613"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112150/transcript/25234/annotation/38","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"If you feel though,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112150#t=86.47,87.825"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112150/transcript/25234/annotation/39","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"I think you see what clickable ban is quite applicable to,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112150#t=87.825,91.67"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112150/transcript/25234/annotation/40","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"to a number of these games that have played in the trade","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112150#t=91.67,94.96"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112150/transcript/25234/annotation/41","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"war.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112150#t=94.96,95.793"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112150/transcript/25234/annotation/42","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"\u003cstrong\u003e -:\u003c/strong\u003e But even if the government changes,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112150#t=95.793,96.73"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112150/transcript/25234/annotation/43","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"you're still going to have to be negotiating with the next","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112150#t=96.73,98.8"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112150/transcript/25234/annotation/44","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"set of people who are occupying those roles.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112150#t=98.8,100.84"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112150/transcript/25234/annotation/45","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"And the chances are,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112150#t=100.84,101.673"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112150/transcript/25234/annotation/46","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"they will probably see the the bargaining stakes the same","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112150#t=101.673,104.85"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112150/transcript/25234/annotation/47","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"way that their predecessors did.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112150#t=104.85,106.45"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112150/transcript/25234/annotation/48","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"\u003cstrong\u003e -:\u003c/strong\u003e Well, let me tell you most games that are played","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112150#t=107.46,109.85"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112150/transcript/25234/annotation/49","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"like this, reputation is very questionable.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112150#t=109.85,112.86"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112150/transcript/25234/annotation/50","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"Whether reputation gets passed from one administration.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112150#t=112.86,115.88"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112150/transcript/25234/annotation/51","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"\u003cstrong\u003e -:\u003c/strong\u003e Not, not reputation, but the stakes and the,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112150#t=115.88,119.87"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112150/transcript/25234/annotation/52","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"the perception of the stakes in the game get passed on.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112150#t=119.87,122.198"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112150/transcript/25234/annotation/53","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"\u003cstrong\u003e -:\u003c/strong\u003e Not necessarily because you got to have a different set of","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112150#t=122.198,124.85"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112150/transcript/25234/annotation/54","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"players, they don't have different perceptions.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112150#t=124.85,127.54"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112150/transcript/25234/annotation/55","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"\u003cstrong\u003e -:\u003c/strong\u003e Well, I know, I mean, if you look at something like the,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112150#t=127.54,129.29"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112150/transcript/25234/annotation/56","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"the, the steel conflicts between the","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112150#t=129.29,131.03"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112150/transcript/25234/annotation/57","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"United States and Western Europe over","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112150#t=131.03,132.8"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112150/transcript/25234/annotation/58","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"the past 50 years, I mean,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112150#t=132.8,134.005"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112150/transcript/25234/annotation/59","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"various administrations appear to have seen the stakes of","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112150#t=134.005,136.98"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112150/transcript/25234/annotation/60","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"being basically the same. I mean,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112150#t=136.98,138.16"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112150/transcript/25234/annotation/61","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"their techniques of bargaining may not be quite the same and","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112150#t=138.16,141.224"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112150/transcript/25234/annotation/62","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"the extent to which they use if you patient may change,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112150#t=141.224,144.01"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112150/transcript/25234/annotation/63","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"but they seem to have seen the States.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112150#t=144.01,146.04"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112150/transcript/25234/annotation/64","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"It's basically the same, namely,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112150#t=146.04,147.479"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112150/transcript/25234/annotation/65","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"namely keeping European steel down to a certain percentage","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112150#t=147.479,150.606"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112150/transcript/25234/annotation/66","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"of the U.S market.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112150#t=150.606,151.963"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112150/transcript/25234/annotation/67","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"\u003cstrong\u003e -:\u003c/strong\u003e I would just say, not necessarily when you pad,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112150#t=153.82,155.942"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112150/transcript/25234/annotation/68","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"when you change the place is not necessarily the case.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112150#t=155.942,159.37"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112150/transcript/25234/annotation/69","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"Did they go see the same kinds of playoffs? Okay.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112150#t=159.37,161.83"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112150/transcript/25234/annotation/70","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"\u003cstrong\u003e -:\u003c/strong\u003e I agree with that.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112150#t=161.83,163.417"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112150/transcript/25234/annotation/71","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"\u003cstrong\u003e -:\u003c/strong\u003e Oh, I think it's practically more wrong.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112150#t=176.61,177.949"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112150/transcript/25234/annotation/72","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"I characterized to do film deal realist eyewash,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112150#t=177.949,181.499"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112150/transcript/25234/annotation/73","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"because it starts from an unspoken assumption that politics","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112150#t=181.499,185.564"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112150/transcript/25234/annotation/74","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"always takes privacy or regional decision.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112150#t=185.564,189.433"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112150/transcript/25234/annotation/75","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"Then it seems to me that there is a deep and inevitable","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112150#t=191.16,195.21"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112150/transcript/25234/annotation/76","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"leakage for large country. Can we talk about linkages,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112150#t=195.21,197.832"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112150/transcript/25234/annotation/77","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"all of these political games and that linkage is that a","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112150#t=197.832,201.844"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112150/transcript/25234/annotation/78","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"large country is going to make","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112150#t=201.844,203.39"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112150/transcript/25234/annotation/79","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"high payments through tariffs,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112150#t=203.39,206.59"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112150/transcript/25234/annotation/80","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"et cetera, all countries,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112150#t=206.59,208.378"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112150/transcript/25234/annotation/81","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"do they have a political security question?","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112150#t=208.378,210.776"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112150/transcript/25234/annotation/82","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"What's so dead wrong is of course it really isn't.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112150#t=210.776,213.521"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112150/transcript/25234/annotation/83","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"It really is no more than ad hoc,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112150#t=213.521,216.453"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112150/transcript/25234/annotation/84","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"but I think there is a theory that there is a generalizable","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112150#t=219.413,221.88"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112150/transcript/25234/annotation/85","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"composition.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112150#t=221.88,222.726"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112150/transcript/25234/annotation/86","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"(Inaudible)","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112150#t=222.726,225.89"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112150/transcript/25234/annotation/87","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"\u003cstrong\u003e -:\u003c/strong\u003e I agree with that.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112150#t=225.89,227.527"}]},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112150/transcript/25234","type":"AnnotationPage","label":{"en":["English [Transcript]"]},"items":[{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112150/transcript/25234/annotation/88","type":"Annotation","motivation":"subtitling","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"https://d9jk7wjtjpu5g.cloudfront.net/file_transcripts/associated_files/000/025/234/original/AV203809_Trade_War_b.vtt?1620122961","format":"text/vtt","language":"en"},"target":"https://d9jk7wjtjpu5g.cloudfront.net/file_transcripts/associated_files/000/025/234/original/AV203809_Trade_War_b.vtt?1620122961"}]},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112150/transcript/25235","type":"AnnotationPage","label":{"en":["AV203809_Trade_War_b.txt [Transcript]"]},"items":[{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112150/transcript/25235/annotation/89","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"- And a prisoner's dilemma that you know you have a fixed end point.\r\n\r\n- Yes.\r\n\r\n- Because the solution to a prisoner's dilemma, even though it's iterated a number of times, but a finite number of times, and you know when a regime's gonna come to an end, the dynamic programming solution to that is to play prisoner's dilemma every single time.\r\n\r\n- Yes, exactly. Exactly. The game unravels right back to the beginning.\r\n\r\n- That's right now, could that have been an explanation for like your first historical example?\r\n\r\n- Well, I don't think so because the game didn't have any determinant end point.\r\n\r\n- But if you perceive the regime is weak or is that a stable, then you can predict that the next period, maybe it's last. And so you should not block it.\r\n\r\n- Okay. So it becomes like it changed or argument based\r\n\r\n- Exactly that you put the other guy out of business. Sure. Yes, you can. Although it seems to me that's more, that's more of a chain store argument and a kind of end point argument. Isn't it? I mean, you, you don't know, the other guy is going to be forced out of business. They three rounds from now. You hope he will, but you don't know that\r\n\r\n- Negotiating with nations and you're negotiating with sitting prime ministers, et cetera. And reputation is something that is typically not passed on to one administration to another. If you feel though, I think you see what clickable ban is quite applicable to, to a number of these games that have played in the trade war.\r\n\r\n- But even if the government changes, you're still going to have to be negotiating with the next set of people who are occupying those roles. And the chances are, they will probably see the the bargaining stakes the same way that their predecessors did.\r\n\r\n- Well, let me tell you most games that are played like this, reputation is very questionable. Whether reputation gets passed from one administration.\r\n\r\n- Not, not reputation, but the stakes and the, the perception of the stakes in the game get passed on.\r\n\r\n- Not necessarily because you got to have a different set of players, they don't have different perceptions.\r\n\r\n- Well, I know, I mean, if you look at something like the, the, the steel conflicts between the United States and Western Europe over the past 50 years, I mean, various administrations appear to have seen the stakes of being basically the same. I mean, their techniques of bargaining may not be quite the same and the extent to which they use if you patient may change, but they seem to have seen the States. It's basically the same, namely, namely keeping European steel down to a certain percentage of the U.S market.\r\n\r\n- I would just say, not necessarily when you pad, when you change the place is not necessarily the case. Did they go see the same kinds of playoffs? Okay.\r\n\r\n- I agree with that.\r\n\r\n- Oh, I think it's practically more wrong. I characterized to do film deal realist eyewash, because it starts from an unspoken assumption that politics always takes privacy or regional decision. Then it seems to me that there is a deep and inevitable leakage for large country. Can we talk about linkages, all of these political games and that linkage is that a large country is going to make high payments through tariffs, et cetera, all countries, do they have a political security question? What's so dead wrong is of course it really isn't. It really is no more than ad hoc, but I think there is a theory that there is a generalizable composition.\r\n\r\n- I agree with that.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/40505/file/112150#t=0.0,234.0049"}]}]}]}