{"@context":"http://iiif.io/api/presentation/3/context.json","id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/iiif/b56d21s49z/manifest","type":"Manifest","label":{"en":["Solow, Andrew, Global Warming Statistical"]},"logo":"https://d9jk7wjtjpu5g.cloudfront.net/organizations/logo_images/000/000/004/original/ISULogo.png?1601681107","metadata":[{"label":{"en":["Publisher"]},"value":{"en":["Iowa State University. Special Collections and University Archives"]}},{"label":{"en":["Identifier"]},"value":{"en":["RS008-006-053 (call number)","AV204090 (UID)"]}},{"label":{"en":["Description"]},"value":{"en":["Global Warming Statistical is an April 7, 1992 event in the Iowa State University Lecture Series featuring Andrew Solow. Andrew Solow discusses flaws in climate models.","This item was captioned by Rev.com in conformance with WCAG 2.1 AA accessibility guidelines. 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journals","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339#t=35.78,39.01"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339/transcript/28316/annotation/13","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"from a variety of sciences, including Geology,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339#t=39.01,41.91"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339/transcript/28316/annotation/14","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"Meteorology, Environmental Monitoring, Ecology,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339#t=41.91,46.22"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339/transcript/28316/annotation/15","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"and Oceanography and of course Statistics.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339#t=46.22,48.603"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339/transcript/28316/annotation/16","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"And tonight he's going to talk to us","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339#t=49.48,50.61"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339/transcript/28316/annotation/17","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"about Statistical Issues in Global Warming, Dr Sollow.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339#t=50.61,53.31"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339/transcript/28316/annotation/18","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"(crowd 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(indistinct),","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339#t=62.33,66.059"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339/transcript/28316/annotation/21","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"all right?","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339#t=66.059,67.25"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339/transcript/28316/annotation/22","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"Did you hear that?","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339#t=67.25,68.867"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339/transcript/28316/annotation/23","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"\u003cstrong\u003e -:\u003c/strong\u003e Yes sir.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339#t=68.867,69.7"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339/transcript/28316/annotation/24","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"\u003cstrong\u003e -:\u003c/strong\u003e Okay, I wanted to thank Tom Logan for inviting me","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339#t=69.7,74.61"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339/transcript/28316/annotation/25","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"to come and speak to you tonight,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339#t=75.491,77.867"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339/transcript/28316/annotation/26","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"and for organizing the trip and my accommodations.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339#t=77.867,82.867"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339/transcript/28316/annotation/27","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"This is the second time that I've been in Iowa.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339#t=83.93,87.74"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339/transcript/28316/annotation/28","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"My brother lives in Iowa City and I visited him once","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339#t=87.74,91.94"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339/transcript/28316/annotation/29","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"before and also yesterday.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339#t=91.94,95.083"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339/transcript/28316/annotation/30","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"I think it's a very nice state, an interesting state,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339#t=96.34,100.23"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339/transcript/28316/annotation/31","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"particularly topologically.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339#t=100.23,102.053"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339/transcript/28316/annotation/32","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"I crossed the Skunk River about 16 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sensitivity","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339#t=849.29,852.09"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339/transcript/28316/annotation/250","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"is the historic record not inconsistent?","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339#t=852.09,855.033"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339/transcript/28316/annotation/251","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"The answer to this question depends very 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data,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339#t=896.59,899.12"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339/transcript/28316/annotation/266","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"is getting the natural variability right.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339#t=899.12,901.673"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339/transcript/28316/annotation/267","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"There's every reason to 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noise,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339#t=957.73,961.46"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339/transcript/28316/annotation/282","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"he concluded that an approximate 95% confidence interval","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339#t=961.46,966.22"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339/transcript/28316/annotation/283","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"for temperature sensitivity is around 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rarely,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339#t=1049.72,1052.26"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339/transcript/28316/annotation/312","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"58 times during this period.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339#t=1052.26,1054.503"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339/transcript/28316/annotation/313","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"I was interested in the way in which the frequency","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339#t=1055.34,1057.65"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339/transcript/28316/annotation/314","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"of these freezes has changed through time.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339#t=1057.65,1059.903"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339/transcript/28316/annotation/315","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"I modeled the occurrence of freezes","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339#t=1060.93,1062.78"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339/transcript/28316/annotation/316","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"as a non-stationary poisson process","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339#t=1062.78,1065.65"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339/transcript/28316/annotation/317","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"and estimated the rate function by kernel estimation.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339#t=1065.65,1068.783"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339/transcript/28316/annotation/318","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"Here are the results.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339#t=1070.99,1072.293"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339/transcript/28316/annotation/319","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"Around the year 1000, the rate of freezes was 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age.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339#t=1100.84,1103.36"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339/transcript/28316/annotation/326","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"The terminal pulse of the little ice age","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339#t=1103.36,1105.62"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339/transcript/28316/annotation/327","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"is apparent at the beginning of the 19th century.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339#t=1107.13,1110.063"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339/transcript/28316/annotation/328","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"This overall pattern of natural climate change could be seen","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339#t=1110.95,1114.68"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339/transcript/28316/annotation/329","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"in a variety of indirect records, such as this,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339#t=1114.68,1117.62"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339/transcript/28316/annotation/330","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"the point is, that the instrumental record began","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339#t=1119.18,1121.92"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339/transcript/28316/annotation/331","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"during the cool 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end,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339#t=1132.99,1135.54"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339/transcript/28316/annotation/336","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"but that it was so cool at the beginning.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339#t=1135.54,1137.733"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339/transcript/28316/annotation/337","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"It's not really clear what caused the little ice 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persistent.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339#t=1262.29,1264.303"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339/transcript/28316/annotation/376","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"On the other hand, if the temperature sensitivity is low,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339#t=1265.27,1268.43"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339/transcript/28316/annotation/377","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"this variability is small, less persistent.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339#t=1268.43,1271.443"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339/transcript/28316/annotation/378","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"It follows the inference about temperature sensitivity","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339#t=1273.0,1276.29"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339/transcript/28316/annotation/379","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"can be based on historic variability around the trend.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339#t=1276.29,1280.183"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339/transcript/28316/annotation/380","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"In this way, the problem of reconstructing","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339#t=1281.06,1283.74"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339/transcript/28316/annotation/381","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"secular changes in historic forcing,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339#t=1284.62,1287.667"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339/transcript/28316/annotation/382","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"can be circumvented.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339#t=1287.667,1289.023"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339/transcript/28316/annotation/383","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"Although I will spare you the details","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339#t=1290.17,1292.76"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339/transcript/28316/annotation/384","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"using likelihood methods in the frequency domain,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339#t=1292.76,1296.16"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339/transcript/28316/annotation/385","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"I found results that were virtually identical","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339#t=1296.16,1298.78"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339/transcript/28316/annotation/386","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"to those done by Bloomfield.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339#t=1298.78,1301.13"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339/transcript/28316/annotation/387","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"A point estimate of temperature sensitivity","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339#t=1301.13,1303.54"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339/transcript/28316/annotation/388","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"of 1.4 degrees centigrade","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339#t=1303.54,1306.51"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339/transcript/28316/annotation/389","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"and an approximate 95% confidence interval","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339#t=1306.51,1309.67"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339/transcript/28316/annotation/390","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"of 0.9, 2.3 degrees centigrade.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339#t=1309.67,1313.663"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339/transcript/28316/annotation/391","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"One interpretation of this result","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339#t=1314.89,1316.95"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339/transcript/28316/annotation/392","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"is that the amount of warming suppressed by sulfate aerosols","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339#t=1316.95,1321.8"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339/transcript/28316/annotation/393","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"is just balanced by the amount of historic warming,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339#t=1321.8,1324.99"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339/transcript/28316/annotation/394","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"not due to greenhouse gas emissions.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339#t=1324.99,1327.283"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339/transcript/28316/annotation/395","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"I've talked so far only about temperature","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339#t=1329.51,1331.91"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339/transcript/28316/annotation/396","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"as temperature changes, so may other climate processes,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339#t=1332.76,1336.18"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339/transcript/28316/annotation/397","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"such as precipitation, sea level and storm climate.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339#t=1336.18,1340.223"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339/transcript/28316/annotation/398","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"The impacts of climate change on human society,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339#t=1341.23,1344.73"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339/transcript/28316/annotation/399","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"may actually depend more on these kinds of changes","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339#t=1344.73,1348.06"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339/transcript/28316/annotation/400","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"than on temperature itself.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339#t=1348.06,1349.793"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339/transcript/28316/annotation/401","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"Unfortunately, they are even more difficult to predict.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339#t=1350.69,1353.793"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339/transcript/28316/annotation/402","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"Let me run through them briefly.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339#t=1354.89,1356.663"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339/transcript/28316/annotation/403","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"General circulation models do include precipitation","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339#t=1358.45,1361.91"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339/transcript/28316/annotation/404","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"among their output.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339#t=1361.91,1364.01"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339/transcript/28316/annotation/405","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"There is however substantial disagreement","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339#t=1364.01,1366.42"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339/transcript/28316/annotation/406","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"among models about changes in precipitation","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339#t=1366.42,1369.86"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339/transcript/28316/annotation/407","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"arising from global warming.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339#t=1369.86,1371.703"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339/transcript/28316/annotation/408","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"The popular view is that global warming","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339#t=1373.01,1375.32"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339/transcript/28316/annotation/409","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"will result in less precipitation.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339#t=1375.32,1377.343"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339/transcript/28316/annotation/410","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"In fact, on a global basis, precipitation","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339#t=1378.45,1381.14"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339/transcript/28316/annotation/411","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"is likely to increase by five to 15%.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339#t=1381.14,1385.81"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339/transcript/28316/annotation/412","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"Any increase in precipitation in mid-continent regions,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339#t=1385.81,1389.73"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339/transcript/28316/annotation/413","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"may be more than offset by increased evaporation","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339#t=1389.73,1393.37"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339/transcript/28316/annotation/414","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"leading to drier soils.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339#t=1393.37,1395.173"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339/transcript/28316/annotation/415","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"This is something you know much more about than I.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339#t=1396.3,1400.15"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339/transcript/28316/annotation/416","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"In New England, we really don't have any soil.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339#t=1400.15,1402.613"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339/transcript/28316/annotation/417","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"The response at sea level global warming","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339#t=1404.57,1406.94"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339/transcript/28316/annotation/418","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"is not included in GCMs and must be estimated","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339#t=1406.94,1410.16"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339/transcript/28316/annotation/419","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"by other means.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339#t=1410.16,1411.273"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339/transcript/28316/annotation/420","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"There are two components to this response.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339#t=1412.3,1415.54"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339/transcript/28316/annotation/421","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"The first is thermal or steric expansion of seawater,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339#t=1415.54,1420.14"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339/transcript/28316/annotation/422","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"and the second is melting of glaciers and ice caps.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339#t=1420.14,1423.667"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339/transcript/28316/annotation/423","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"10 years ago, there was some fear that global warming","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339#t=1424.91,1427.67"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339/transcript/28316/annotation/424","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"would lead to the disintegration","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339#t=1427.67,1429.41"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339/transcript/28316/annotation/425","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"of the West Antarctic ice sheet causing sea level","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339#t=1429.41,1432.67"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339/transcript/28316/annotation/426","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"to rise 20 feet or more.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339#t=1432.67,1434.863"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339/transcript/28316/annotation/427","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"Careful study to put this fear to rest,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339#t=1436.01,1439.13"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339/transcript/28316/annotation/428","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"and then estimated sea level was reduced","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339#t=1439.13,1441.41"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339/transcript/28316/annotation/429","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"to three to nine feet, a rise of three to nine feet,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339#t=1441.41,1445.17"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339/transcript/28316/annotation/430","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"mainly due to melting,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339#t=1445.17,1446.42"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339/transcript/28316/annotation/431","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"but not collapse of the Antarctic ice 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lead","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339#t=1468.29,1469.64"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339/transcript/28316/annotation/438","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"to more and more powerful tropical storms and hurricanes.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339#t=1469.64,1473.633"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339/transcript/28316/annotation/439","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"The argument here is that tropical 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frequently.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339#t=1485.89,1486.913"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339/transcript/28316/annotation/444","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"On the other hand, tropical storms do not always form","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339#t=1488.13,1491.61"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339/transcript/28316/annotation/445","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"when sea surface temperature is high.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339#t=1491.61,1494.49"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339/transcript/28316/annotation/446","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"They also require high levels of any kinetic energy","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339#t=1494.49,1498.11"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339/transcript/28316/annotation/447","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"in the atmosphere.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339#t=1498.11,1499.253"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339/transcript/28316/annotation/448","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"The level of this energy is related to the latitude,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339#t=1500.12,1503.11"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339/transcript/28316/annotation/449","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"no temperature gradient.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339#t=1503.11,1504.733"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339/transcript/28316/annotation/450","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"The regional distribution of global warming","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339#t=1505.8,1508.35"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339/transcript/28316/annotation/451","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"is expected to reduce this gradient","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339#t=1508.35,1511.11"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339/transcript/28316/annotation/452","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"as high latitudes were more than low latitudes.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339#t=1511.11,1514.683"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339/transcript/28316/annotation/453","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"This would act to reduce the frequency of tropical storm.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339#t=1515.66,1519.123"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339/transcript/28316/annotation/454","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"As they used to say in the sixties","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339#t=1520.38,1522.68"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339/transcript/28316/annotation/455","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"things are more complicated than they are.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339#t=1522.68,1525.173"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339/transcript/28316/annotation/456","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"At the beginning of this talk,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339#t=1526.36,1528.0"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339/transcript/28316/annotation/457","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"I referred to the global warming debate.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339#t=1528.0,1530.013"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339/transcript/28316/annotation/458","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"As far as the science is concerned however,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339#t=1531.68,1534.1"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339/transcript/28316/annotation/459","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"there's relatively little debate.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339#t=1534.1,1536.223"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339/transcript/28316/annotation/460","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"Nobody seriously believes","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339#t=1537.47,1539.24"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339/transcript/28316/annotation/461","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"that there will be no fanatic response","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339#t=1539.24,1541.82"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339/transcript/28316/annotation/462","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"to ongoing changes in atmospheric composition.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339#t=1541.82,1544.883"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339/transcript/28316/annotation/463","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"There's some debate about temperature sensitivity","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339#t=1546.23,1549.49"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339/transcript/28316/annotation/464","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"but most people's interval estimates overlap substantially.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339#t=1549.49,1553.563"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339/transcript/28316/annotation/465","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"There's also some debate about highly speculative aspects","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339#t=1554.53,1558.08"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339/transcript/28316/annotation/466","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"of the climate system.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339#t=1558.08,1559.81"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339/transcript/28316/annotation/467","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"For example, whether it has multiple equilibria,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339#t=1559.81,1563.33"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339/transcript/28316/annotation/468","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"but this is hardly science.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339#t=1563.33,1564.993"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339/transcript/28316/annotation/469","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"The real debate over global warming is what if anything,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339#t=1566.29,1569.81"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339/transcript/28316/annotation/470","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"we should do about it.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339#t=1569.81,1570.963"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339/transcript/28316/annotation/471","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"Deciding how to respond to climate change","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339#t=1574.48,1577.05"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339/transcript/28316/annotation/472","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"is not primarily a scientific question.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339#t=1577.05,1581.07"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339/transcript/28316/annotation/473","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"It may well be that the earth will be warmer","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339#t=1581.07,1583.42"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339/transcript/28316/annotation/474","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"in the next century","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339#t=1583.42,1584.87"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339/transcript/28316/annotation/475","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"than it has been the past 2 million years.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339#t=1584.87,1587.713"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339/transcript/28316/annotation/476","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"As impressive as it sounds,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339#t=1588.85,1590.84"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339/transcript/28316/annotation/477","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"it is really neither here nor there.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339#t=1590.84,1593.74"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339/transcript/28316/annotation/478","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"The question is what would be the impacts on human society","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339#t=1593.74,1597.71"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339/transcript/28316/annotation/479","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"and what are the costs and benefits of policies aimed","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339#t=1597.71,1601.28"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339/transcript/28316/annotation/480","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"at avoiding or mitigating negative impacts.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339#t=1601.28,1604.233"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339/transcript/28316/annotation/481","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"It is useful and accurate to think about responding","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339#t=1606.23,1609.67"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339/transcript/28316/annotation/482","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"to climate change as a social investment decision.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339#t=1609.67,1614.193"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339/transcript/28316/annotation/483","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"We need to decide whether,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339#t=1615.49,1617.117"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339/transcript/28316/annotation/484","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"and by how much we should reduce current welfare","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339#t=1617.117,1621.07"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339/transcript/28316/annotation/485","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"to avoid potential future reductions in welfare.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339#t=1621.07,1625.283"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339/transcript/28316/annotation/486","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"In making this calculation, welfare should be measured","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339#t=1626.35,1629.41"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339/transcript/28316/annotation/487","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"in the broadest most inclusive way.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339#t=1629.41,1632.76"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339/transcript/28316/annotation/488","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"If climate change causes the extinction of species","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339#t=1632.76,1636.27"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339/transcript/28316/annotation/489","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"and people care about that and they do,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339#t=1636.27,1639.49"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339/transcript/28316/annotation/490","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"then they should be included.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339#t=1639.49,1641.71"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339/transcript/28316/annotation/491","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"If people simply do not like the idea","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339#t=1641.71,1644.21"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339/transcript/28316/annotation/492","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"of anthropogenic climate change,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339#t=1644.21,1646.55"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339/transcript/28316/annotation/493","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"then this should also be 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warming","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339#t=1757.31,1760.92"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339/transcript/28316/annotation/528","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"and the economic cost to the emissions reductions.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339#t=1760.92,1763.453"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339/transcript/28316/annotation/529","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"In rough terms, these admittedly preliminary 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warming","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339#t=1771.69,1774.72"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339/transcript/28316/annotation/532","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"would be something less than 1% of GNP per year,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339#t=1774.72,1779.72"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339/transcript/28316/annotation/533","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"roughly $150 billion per 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10,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339#t=1849.23,1851.86"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339/transcript/28316/annotation/552","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"it still seems hard to argue that compared","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339#t=1851.86,1855.04"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339/transcript/28316/annotation/553","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"to investing in healthcare, education,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339#t=1855.04,1858.35"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339/transcript/28316/annotation/554","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"basic research and development,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339#t=1858.35,1860.59"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339/transcript/28316/annotation/555","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"even reconstructing Eastern Europe","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339#t=1860.59,1863.15"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339/transcript/28316/annotation/556","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"that this would be our best shot.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339#t=1863.15,1865.89"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339/transcript/28316/annotation/557","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"On the other hand, if the choice is between 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perquisites,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339#t=1871.31,1874.81"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339/transcript/28316/annotation/560","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"and yes the Lawrence Welk museum,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339#t=1874.81,1877.37"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339/transcript/28316/annotation/561","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"then it may be a different 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it","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339#t=1883.86,1886.49"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339/transcript/28316/annotation/564","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"have not gone uncriticized.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339#t=1886.49,1888.257"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339/transcript/28316/annotation/565","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"First, the calculations do not include 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be.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339#t=1901.64,1903.453"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339/transcript/28316/annotation/570","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"There are also philosophical questions","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339#t=1904.53,1906.87"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339/transcript/28316/annotation/571","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"about what constitutes harm with natural system.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339#t=1906.87,1910.433"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339/transcript/28316/annotation/572","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"Although this is not a view to which I subscribe,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339#t=1911.83,1914.42"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339/transcript/28316/annotation/573","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"my father often cites a philosopher friend in saying","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339#t=1914.42,1918.12"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339/transcript/28316/annotation/574","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"that we should not do anything to an animal","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339#t=1918.12,1920.8"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339/transcript/28316/annotation/575","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"that another animal would not do.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339#t=1920.8,1922.773"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339/transcript/28316/annotation/576","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"Second, the claim is sometimes made that quite apart","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339#t=1924.11,1927.96"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339/transcript/28316/annotation/577","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"from global warming, emissions reductions","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339#t=1927.96,1930.61"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339/transcript/28316/annotation/578","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"would actually benefit the economy.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339#t=1930.61,1932.723"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339/transcript/28316/annotation/579","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"It seems likely that the failure","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339#t=1934.1,1935.88"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339/transcript/28316/annotation/580","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"of the market to capture externalities associated","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339#t=1935.88,1938.99"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339/transcript/28316/annotation/581","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"with burning fossil fuels,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339#t=1938.99,1940.93"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339/transcript/28316/annotation/582","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"such as acid rain and air pollution","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339#t=1940.93,1943.55"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339/transcript/28316/annotation/583","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"has led to overconsumption.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339#t=1943.55,1945.553"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339/transcript/28316/annotation/584","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"It remains to be seen however","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339#t=1946.47,1948.1"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339/transcript/28316/annotation/585","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"how large these effects are and whether emissions reduction","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339#t=1948.1,1951.657"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339/transcript/28316/annotation/586","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"are the best ways to address them.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339#t=1951.657,1953.853"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339/transcript/28316/annotation/587","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"By the way, I'm not one of those people who 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problems.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339#t=1961.34,1963.64"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339/transcript/28316/annotation/590","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"Ozone depletion is a good casing point.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339#t=1964.88,1967.483"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339/transcript/28316/annotation/591","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"Stratospheric ozone protects the earth 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chlorofluorocarbons.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339#t=1974.0,1977.823"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339/transcript/28316/annotation/594","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"Chlorofluorocarbons are also potent","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339#t=1979.0,1981.38"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339/transcript/28316/annotation/595","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"long-lived greenhouse gases.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339#t=1981.38,1982.853"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339/transcript/28316/annotation/596","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"The scientific understanding of the details","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339#t=1984.48,1987.01"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339/transcript/28316/annotation/597","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"of ozone depletion is still fairly rudimentary.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339#t=1987.01,1990.323"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339/transcript/28316/annotation/598","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"The impacts of increased ultraviolet radiation","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339#t=1991.23,1994.08"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339/transcript/28316/annotation/599","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"on agriculture and public health are also not clear.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339#t=1994.08,1997.893"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339/transcript/28316/annotation/600","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"On the other hand, the world economy runs on fossil fuels","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339#t=1998.88,2002.27"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339/transcript/28316/annotation/601","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"not on chlorofluorocarbons and the economic cost","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339#t=2002.27,2006.03"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339/transcript/28316/annotation/602","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"of phasing out chlorofluorocarbons are modest.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339#t=2006.03,2009.88"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339/transcript/28316/annotation/603","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"No more than please pardon the expression,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339#t=2009.88,2012.27"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339/transcript/28316/annotation/604","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"a few billion dollars.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339#t=2012.27,2013.953"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339/transcript/28316/annotation/605","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"Even a possibility of a real disaster however remote,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339#t=2015.39,2019.06"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339/transcript/28316/annotation/606","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"this seems a reasonable price to pay.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339#t=2019.06,2021.663"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339/transcript/28316/annotation/607","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"It's reassuring that most of the world's nations","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339#t=2022.76,2025.53"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339/transcript/28316/annotation/608","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"see it pretty much the same way.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339#t=2025.53,2027.473"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339/transcript/28316/annotation/609","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"I'm afraid that I've gotten a bit editorial here.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339#t=2028.93,2031.703"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339/transcript/28316/annotation/610","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"I suppose that my main message is something like this,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339#t=2032.59,2035.633"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339/transcript/28316/annotation/611","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"although we certainly do not have all the answers","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339#t=2036.65,2039.04"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339/transcript/28316/annotation/612","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"about global warming, we do know most","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339#t=2039.04,2041.83"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339/transcript/28316/annotation/613","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"of the important questions.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339#t=2041.83,2044.27"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339/transcript/28316/annotation/614","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"This by itself is progress.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339#t=2044.27,2047.19"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339/transcript/28316/annotation/615","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"Three or four years ago, it was heresy to suggest","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339#t=2047.19,2050.21"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339/transcript/28316/annotation/616","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"that there were any questions.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339#t=2050.21,2051.71"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339/transcript/28316/annotation/617","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"We also have some idea about how to address these questions","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339#t=2052.81,2057.23"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339/transcript/28316/annotation/618","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"by careful, dispassionate science.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339#t=2057.23,2060.77"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339/transcript/28316/annotation/619","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"As a consequence, some preliminary answers","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339#t=2060.77,2063.64"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339/transcript/28316/annotation/620","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"are beginning to trickle in.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339#t=2063.64,2065.313"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339/transcript/28316/annotation/621","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"There's disagreement of course, but having place things","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339#t=2066.5,2070.29"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339/transcript/28316/annotation/622","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"on a firmer methodological pudding,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339#t=2070.29,2072.63"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339/transcript/28316/annotation/623","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"it should be possible to sort out these disagreements","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339#t=2072.63,2075.5"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339/transcript/28316/annotation/624","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"in the sense of a way.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339#t=2075.5,2076.933"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339/transcript/28316/annotation/625","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"My expectation is that short of some very bad news,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339#t=2078.46,2082.66"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339/transcript/28316/annotation/626","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"the nations of the world will respond incrementally","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339#t=2082.66,2085.88"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339/transcript/28316/annotation/627","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"to global warming.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339#t=2085.88,2087.72"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339/transcript/28316/annotation/628","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"My guess is that they will not regret it.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339#t=2087.72,2090.26"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339/transcript/28316/annotation/629","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"Thank you very much.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339#t=2090.26,2091.483"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339/transcript/28316/annotation/630","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"(crowd applauding)","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339#t=2092.464,2095.381"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339/transcript/28316/annotation/631","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"I'd be happy to answer any questions if you have any.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339#t=2101.93,2104.737"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339/transcript/28316/annotation/632","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"Are there any questions?","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339#t=2116.557,2118.04"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339/transcript/28316/annotation/633","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"\u003cstrong\u003e -:\u003c/strong\u003e So is the verdict still on, on global (indistinct)","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339#t=2118.04,2121.229"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339/transcript/28316/annotation/634","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"the influence of carbon dioxide","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339#t=2121.229,2123.812"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339/transcript/28316/annotation/635","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"and contribution to (indistinct)?","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339#t=2125.254,2129.421"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339/transcript/28316/annotation/636","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"\u003cstrong\u003e -:\u003c/strong\u003e Okay, if I'm thinking of the same paper,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339#t=2147.73,2151.09"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339/transcript/28316/annotation/637","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"Dave Thompson established a correlation","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339#t=2151.09,2155.73"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339/transcript/28316/annotation/638","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"between levels of carbon dioxide","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339#t=2155.73,2158.41"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339/transcript/28316/annotation/639","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"in the atmospheric temperature that was it--","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339#t=2158.41,2162.08"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339/transcript/28316/annotation/640","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"The paper I saw was in the nature.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339#t=2162.08,2164.26"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339/transcript/28316/annotation/641","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"\u003cstrong\u003e -:\u003c/strong\u003e This is a different one than the ones (indistinct),","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339#t=2164.26,2166.91"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339/transcript/28316/annotation/642","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"\u003cstrong\u003e -:\u003c/strong\u003e Well, it's a nice piece of work,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339#t=2172.119,2175.51"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339/transcript/28316/annotation/643","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"the interesting thing is that","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339#t=2175.51,2177.96"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339/transcript/28316/annotation/644","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"what Dave found was that carbon dioxide","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339#t=2177.96,2181.66"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339/transcript/28316/annotation/645","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"follows temperature, that when you have a warm year,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339#t=2181.66,2186.66"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339/transcript/28316/annotation/646","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"then people are warm, season then typically","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339#t=2186.76,2190.85"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339/transcript/28316/annotation/647","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"the next season carbon dioxide is higher","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339#t=2190.85,2194.602"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339/transcript/28316/annotation/648","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"in the atmosphere.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339#t=2194.602,2195.873"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339/transcript/28316/annotation/649","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"So what Dave has found is a kind of biological feedback","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339#t=2195.873,2200.873"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339/transcript/28316/annotation/650","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"in the carbon cycle.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339#t=2201.81,2203.62"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339/transcript/28316/annotation/651","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"I don't know that anyone had actually found it","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339#t=2203.62,2206.97"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339/transcript/28316/annotation/652","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"by looking at the data, but it's well understood","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339#t=2206.97,2209.41"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339/transcript/28316/annotation/653","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"if you have a warm growing season, then in one hemisphere","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339#t=2209.41,2214.41"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339/transcript/28316/annotation/654","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"then you have, you have more outgassing of carbon","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339#t=2214.78,2219.46"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339/transcript/28316/annotation/655","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"in the following seasons that kind of of process.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339#t=2219.46,2223.74"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339/transcript/28316/annotation/656","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"So, your first question was whether the jury","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339#t=2223.74,2228.74"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339/transcript/28316/annotation/657","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"is still out, I think that qualitatively the jury","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339#t=2229.0,2231.77"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339/transcript/28316/annotation/658","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"is not out, that there is a relationship","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339#t=2231.77,2234.94"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339/transcript/28316/annotation/659","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"between carbon dioxide concentrations and temperature.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339#t=2234.94,2239.263"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339/transcript/28316/annotation/660","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"The question is what specifically is that relationship?","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339#t=2240.96,2245.59"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339/transcript/28316/annotation/661","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"How sensitive is the climate system to changes","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339#t=2245.59,2249.87"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339/transcript/28316/annotation/662","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"in atmospheric composition?","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339#t=2249.87,2252.17"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339/transcript/28316/annotation/663","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"And I think that the jury is very much out on that","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339#t=2252.17,2255.28"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339/transcript/28316/annotation/664","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"in the sense that the interval estimates","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339#t=2255.28,2260.28"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339/transcript/28316/annotation/665","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"are fairly wide.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339#t=2260.53,2261.883"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339/transcript/28316/annotation/666","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"(indistinct)","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339#t=2267.46,2269.877"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339/transcript/28316/annotation/667","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"Well, I can't comment on the accuracy of the figures.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339#t=2289.8,2293.393"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339/transcript/28316/annotation/668","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"If we keep burning fossil fuels at the rate","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339#t=2294.51,2299.51"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339/transcript/28316/annotation/669","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"or an increased rate--","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339#t=2300.1,2301.957"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339/transcript/28316/annotation/670","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"At the increasing rate that we have recently,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339#t=2303.08,2306.503"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339/transcript/28316/annotation/671","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"then in the next 50 years, we probably will double the level","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339#t=2308.388,2313.32"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339/transcript/28316/annotation/672","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339#t=2313.32,2316.0"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339/transcript/28316/annotation/673","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"Once it gets there, it stays there for a long time","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339#t=2316.0,2319.79"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339/transcript/28316/annotation/674","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"to decades, maybe more.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339#t=2319.79,2321.733"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339/transcript/28316/annotation/675","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"There are these other greenhouse gases","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339#t=2325.31,2327.32"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339/transcript/28316/annotation/676","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"which are becoming increasingly important.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339#t=2327.32,2330.223"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339/transcript/28316/annotation/677","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"Methane is produced by burning natural gas for example.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339#t=2332.37,2336.12"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339/transcript/28316/annotation/678","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"And so, even if we run out of oil","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339#t=2337.187,2339.537"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339/transcript/28316/annotation/679","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"what that means is that we switch to natural gas,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339#t=2339.537,2342.81"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339/transcript/28316/annotation/680","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"we may just be switching to greenhouse gases.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339#t=2342.81,2345.583"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339/transcript/28316/annotation/681","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"I think it's a complicated issue,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339#t=2349.98,2351.425"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339/transcript/28316/annotation/682","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"on the other hand, if we start running out of oil","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339#t=2351.425,2353.55"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339/transcript/28316/annotation/683","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"speaking as a failed economist,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339#t=2353.55,2357.68"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339/transcript/28316/annotation/684","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"seems to (indistinct) that the price of oil will rise","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339#t=2357.68,2360.46"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339/transcript/28316/annotation/685","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"and people will start switching to other kinds of fuels","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339#t=2360.46,2363.99"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339/transcript/28316/annotation/686","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"and if those are cleaner,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339#t=2363.99,2365.91"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339/transcript/28316/annotation/687","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"if those are things like solar energy or nuclear energy","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339#t=2365.91,2370.91"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339/transcript/28316/annotation/688","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"assuming that the problems can be solved there","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339#t=2370.96,2373.33"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339/transcript/28316/annotation/689","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"then things might look better.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339#t=2374.21,2377.72"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339/transcript/28316/annotation/690","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"But I wouldn't say if I were worried about global warming,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339#t=2377.72,2380.37"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339/transcript/28316/annotation/691","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"I wouldn't be counting on running out of oil as a solution.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339#t=2380.37,2384.45"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339/transcript/28316/annotation/692","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"(crowd laughs)","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339#t=2384.45,2387.033"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339/transcript/28316/annotation/693","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"(indistinct)","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339#t=2388.098,2390.515"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339/transcript/28316/annotation/694","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"\u003cstrong\u003e -:\u003c/strong\u003e To minimize effect to global warming,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339#t=2393.875,2397.125"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339/transcript/28316/annotation/695","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"\u003cstrong\u003e -:\u003c/strong\u003e Yeah, there are--","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339#t=2398.95,2400.05"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339/transcript/28316/annotation/696","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"Well, I guess if you, the question is what's the constraint?","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339#t=2400.05,2404.12"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339/transcript/28316/annotation/697","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"if you say, well we wanna have","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339#t=2404.12,2405.42"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339/transcript/28316/annotation/698","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"is we wanna place a constraint","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339#t=2405.42,2407.05"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339/transcript/28316/annotation/699","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"on the amount of radiative forcing that we cause","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339#t=2407.05,2409.77"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339/transcript/28316/annotation/700","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"in the climates system then under such a constraint","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339#t=2409.77,2413.59"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339/transcript/28316/annotation/701","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"it should be possible to make a calculation like that.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339#t=2413.59,2416.78"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339/transcript/28316/annotation/702","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"I think that energy, people were interested","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339#t=2416.78,2419.29"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339/transcript/28316/annotation/703","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"in energy policy to do that kind of thing.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339#t=2419.29,2421.963"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339/transcript/28316/annotation/704","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"There's a feeling that in the United States","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339#t=2423.83,2425.78"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339/transcript/28316/annotation/705","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"that we use too much petroleum,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339#t=2425.78,2428.892"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339/transcript/28316/annotation/706","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"that we use too much gasoline, and not enough natural gas","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339#t=2428.892,2433.487"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339/transcript/28316/annotation/707","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"or other kinds of fuels, but that's not--","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339#t=2434.57,2437.527"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339/transcript/28316/annotation/708","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"I'm not an expert on that.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339#t=2437.527,2439.694"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339/transcript/28316/annotation/709","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"(indistinct)","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339#t=2444.435,2446.852"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339/transcript/28316/annotation/710","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"It's not a (indistinct).","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339#t=2458.19,2459.868"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339/transcript/28316/annotation/711","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"(crowd laughs)","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339#t=2459.868,2462.451"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339/transcript/28316/annotation/712","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"Yeah, that's true, that about 40% of the carbon","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339#t=2463.334,2467.083"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339/transcript/28316/annotation/713","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"that's being emitted","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339#t=2469.37,2471.5"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339/transcript/28316/annotation/714","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"is going somewhere a little bit less than that","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339#t=2471.5,2475.707"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339/transcript/28316/annotation/715","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"but we don't know where.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339#t=2475.707,2477.13"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339/transcript/28316/annotation/716","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"A lot of carbon goes into the ocean.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339#t=2477.13,2479.83"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339/transcript/28316/annotation/717","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"And a lot of carbon goes into the atmosphere","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339#t=2479.83,2482.01"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339/transcript/28316/annotation/718","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"but still 30 or 40% of the carbon emissions","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339#t=2482.01,2485.14"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339/transcript/28316/annotation/719","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"go into what's called the missing sink.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339#t=2485.14,2488.223"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339/transcript/28316/annotation/720","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"Now there are a couple of possibilities.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339#t=2490.08,2493.07"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339/transcript/28316/annotation/721","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"One is that there is a large missing sink.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339#t=2493.07,2495.963"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339/transcript/28316/annotation/722","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"It could just be that we've underestimated the amount","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339#t=2496.95,2501.83"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339/transcript/28316/annotation/723","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"of carbon taken up by the ocean,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339#t=2501.83,2503.83"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339/transcript/28316/annotation/724","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"that's certainly possible because those estimates","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339#t=2503.83,2506.09"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339/transcript/28316/annotation/725","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"are revised constantly.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339#t=2506.09,2508.26"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339/transcript/28316/annotation/726","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"Some people think that the missing sink","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339#t=2508.26,2512.15"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339/transcript/28316/annotation/727","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"may be soils in temperate latitudes","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339#t=2512.15,2515.78"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339/transcript/28316/annotation/728","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"like in North America,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339#t=2515.78,2517.303"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339/transcript/28316/annotation/729","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"but you know what, that's a speculation","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339#t=2519.24,2521.64"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339/transcript/28316/annotation/730","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"and I suppose people are looking, but that's not,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339#t=2521.64,2525.43"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339/transcript/28316/annotation/731","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"that's easier to say than to do.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339#t=2525.43,2528.17"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339/transcript/28316/annotation/732","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"Another possibility is,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339#t=2528.17,2531.44"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339/transcript/28316/annotation/733","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"I think stronger than a possibility","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339#t=2531.44,2533.77"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339/transcript/28316/annotation/734","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"is that there's a missing sink","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339#t=2533.77,2537.73"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339/transcript/28316/annotation/735","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"only to the extent that we haven't overestimated emission,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339#t=2537.73,2542.32"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339/transcript/28316/annotation/736","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"part of the explanation maybe be that","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339#t=2542.32,2544.58"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339/transcript/28316/annotation/737","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"we've overestimated the amount of carbon emission","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339#t=2544.58,2547.27"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339/transcript/28316/annotation/738","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"in the atmosphere,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339#t=2547.27,2549.11"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339/transcript/28316/annotation/739","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"The source of that old resignation","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339#t=2549.11,2551.73"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339/transcript/28316/annotation/740","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"is almost as certain as deforestation.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339#t=2551.73,2554.73"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339/transcript/28316/annotation/741","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"The estimates of the contribution of carbon dioxide","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339#t=2554.73,2558.11"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339/transcript/28316/annotation/742","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"from deforestation are really quite high,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339#t=2558.11,2561.82"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339/transcript/28316/annotation/743","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"it's about 1.6 giga-tons.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339#t=2561.82,2564.77"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339/transcript/28316/annotation/744","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"And I think that that's--","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339#t=2564.77,2567.94"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339/transcript/28316/annotation/745","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"Many people believe that's much too high.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339#t=2567.94,2570.043"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339/transcript/28316/annotation/746","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"That the contribution is perhaps a giga-ton","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339#t=2570.043,2573.36"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339/transcript/28316/annotation/747","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"smaller than that.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339#t=2573.36,2574.853"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339/transcript/28316/annotation/748","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"The reason that they believe it is possible","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339#t=2575.71,2577.96"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339/transcript/28316/annotation/749","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"to distinguish between carbon dioxide","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339#t=2577.96,2580.89"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339/transcript/28316/annotation/750","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"in the atmosphere is coming from fossil fuels","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339#t=2580.89,2583.68"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339/transcript/28316/annotation/751","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"and carbon dioxide that's coming from biomass burning","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339#t=2583.68,2587.04"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339/transcript/28316/annotation/752","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"because of an isotopic ratio is different.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339#t=2588.9,2591.93"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339/transcript/28316/annotation/753","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"And when they go looking for biomass burning carbon","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339#t=2591.93,2596.81"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339/transcript/28316/annotation/754","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"in the atmosphere, they don't find very much.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339#t=2596.81,2599.533"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339/transcript/28316/annotation/755","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"The estimates of the contribution is not based","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339#t=2600.842,2603.61"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339/transcript/28316/annotation/756","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"on that kind of analysis is based","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339#t=2603.61,2606.087"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339/transcript/28316/annotation/757","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"on a different kind of measurement.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339#t=2606.087,2609.27"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339/transcript/28316/annotation/758","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"So I suspect that there is a missing sink,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339#t=2609.27,2612.1"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339/transcript/28316/annotation/759","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"but that it's not as big as some people may think","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339#t=2612.1,2616.18"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339/transcript/28316/annotation/760","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"because we've overestimated the amount of emission.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339#t=2617.13,2619.94"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339/transcript/28316/annotation/761","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"(indistinct)","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339#t=2623.759,2626.176"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339/transcript/28316/annotation/762","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"Well, first I would say that I agree with that.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339#t=2641.94,2644.821"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339/transcript/28316/annotation/763","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"I think that that's an important issue","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339#t=2644.821,2646.54"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339/transcript/28316/annotation/764","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"and I tell each of my six children every morning","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339#t=2646.54,2649.4"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339/transcript/28316/annotation/765","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"(crowd laughs)","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339#t=2649.4,2651.983"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339/transcript/28316/annotation/766","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"I don't have six.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339#t=2653.615,2655.032"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339/transcript/28316/annotation/767","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"No, I absolutely, I think that,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339#t=2658.727,2660.493"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339/transcript/28316/annotation/768","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"it's not a statistical issue, but I agree,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339#t=2661.87,2666.03"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339/transcript/28316/annotation/769","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"completely that the real problem,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339#t=2666.03,2668.15"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339/transcript/28316/annotation/770","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"if there is a real problem, the real problem","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339#t=2668.15,2670.543"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339/transcript/28316/annotation/771","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"is that are too many people,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339#t=2670.543,2672.603"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339/transcript/28316/annotation/772","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"giving it to that many people though,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339#t=2673.61,2676.06"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339/transcript/28316/annotation/773","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"we need to take care of them.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339#t=2676.06,2677.663"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339/transcript/28316/annotation/774","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"That's a long-term problem too,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339#t=2680.8,2682.42"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339/transcript/28316/annotation/775","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"to reduce the world's population","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339#t=2682.42,2685.72"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339/transcript/28316/annotation/776","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"that takes many hundreds of years, I would think,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339#t=2685.72,2688.71"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339/transcript/28316/annotation/777","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"or certainly its a very long-term problem.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339#t=2688.71,2691.563"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339/transcript/28316/annotation/778","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"And, it's something that I think we should care about","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339#t=2692.79,2697.79"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339/transcript/28316/annotation/779","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"and try to do, but again,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339#t=2698.24,2699.89"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339/transcript/28316/annotation/780","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"it's not an immediate solution to any problem.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339#t=2700.78,2703.583"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339/transcript/28316/annotation/781","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"Any other questions?","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339#t=2706.37,2709.486"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339/transcript/28316/annotation/782","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"(indistinct)","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339#t=2709.486,2711.903"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339/transcript/28316/annotation/783","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"Great.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339#t=2733.661,2734.494"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339/transcript/28316/annotation/784","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"Firstly, as far as impacts are concerned","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339#t=2735.78,2738.32"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339/transcript/28316/annotation/785","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"that's almost surely true that health impacts","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339#t=2738.32,2742.08"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339/transcript/28316/annotation/786","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"from high temperature,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339#t=2742.08,2743.04"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339/transcript/28316/annotation/787","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"come from extreme high temperature advance","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339#t=2743.04,2745.52"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339/transcript/28316/annotation/788","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"from heat wave, not just from changes in the mean,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339#t=2745.52,2748.803"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339/transcript/28316/annotation/789","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"it's always difficult to handle extreme values.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339#t=2750.838,2755.838"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339/transcript/28316/annotation/790","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"They can be very sensitive to small changes.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339#t=2758.12,2760.683"}]},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339/transcript/28316","type":"AnnotationPage","label":{"en":["English [Transcript]"]},"items":[{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339/transcript/28316/annotation/791","type":"Annotation","motivation":"subtitling","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"https://d9jk7wjtjpu5g.cloudfront.net/file_transcripts/associated_files/000/028/316/original/AV204090_Global_Warming_Statistical_a.vtt?1622659546","format":"text/vtt","language":"en"},"target":"https://d9jk7wjtjpu5g.cloudfront.net/file_transcripts/associated_files/000/028/316/original/AV204090_Global_Warming_Statistical_a.vtt?1622659546"}]},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339/transcript/28317","type":"AnnotationPage","label":{"en":["AV204090_Global_Warming_Statistical_a.txt [Transcript]"]},"items":[{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339/transcript/28317/annotation/792","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"- Pleased to have with us tonight Andrew Solow, from the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution in Woods Hole, Massachusetts. He's currently an assistant associate scientist at the Marine Policy Center at the Oceanographic Institution. He got his PhD in 1986 from Stanford in Statistics and is currently a member of Climate Trends panel for the National Climate Program Office in Scientific Working Group in Intergovernmental Panel On Climate Change. Dr. Solow has published articles in journals from a variety of sciences, including Geology, Meteorology, Environmental Monitoring, Ecology, and Oceanography and of course Statistics. And tonight he's going to talk to us about Statistical Issues in Global Warming, Dr Sollow.\r\n\r\n- Thank you very much. If you can hear me, I won't use the microphone , all right? Did you hear that?\r\n\r\n- Yes sir.\r\n\r\n- Okay, I wanted to thank Tom Logan for inviting me to come and speak to you tonight, and for organizing the trip and my accommodations. This is the second time that I've been in Iowa. My brother lives in Iowa City and I visited him once before and also yesterday. I think it's a very nice state, an interesting state, particularly topologically. I crossed the Skunk River about 16 times. I can't imagine what that must look like. Anyhow, I'm happy to be here. When I was an undergraduate, I studied Economics. One of the things that I disliked about Economics was that everyone had an opinion about it. For example, when I would pull off the conversation with the person sitting next to me in an airplane, and I would tell them that I was a student of economics they would invariably give me the benefit of their wisdom on inflation, unemployment, and the gold standard. Got so bad that I started telling people that I guided towards the holy land. For this and other reasons when I went to graduate school, I became interested in Statistics, the subject about which nobody has an opinion except possibly that its a bore. When I decided that my future lay in Applied Statistics, I started to look for field of application remembering my experience in Economics, I had the unerring foresight to choose Climatology. Last fall I had to fly to Rome. I the conversation with the gentleman sitting next to me. Upon learning what I did, he gave me the benefit of his wisdom on global warming. It had something to do with sunspots. When he was finished, I asked him what he did, he told me that he was a professor of Philosophy. How did he know so much about climate? His friend was writing a book about it, his friend, a neurophysiology. That was last fall, on the flight out here yesterday, I sat next to a very nice lady. We go onto conversation. Jerusalem is lovely this time of year, I told her. The title of my talk this evening is Statistical Issues in Global Warming. I understand that some of you are not statisticians so I plan to be rather long on global warming and rather short on statistical issues at least technical statistical issues. Statistics is a very broad field, covering everything from data analysis to statistical inference to decision theory. One theme, however, underlying all of statistics is to think carefully about the level of uncertainty and to take account of it in decision-making. This makes statisticians a skeptical lot. And it's only fair to tell you that I'm considered something of a skeptic in the global warming debate. This debate is a little bit subtle. It's not simply a matter of believers and disbelievers. Moreover, the target is a moving one and it's my impression that yesterday's skeptics like me increasingly occupied the scientific mainstream. What I hoped to do this evening is to provide a broad picture of the global warming issue and along the way to indicate what it means to be a skeptic and how others like me have come to this position. The greenhouse effect is the process by which certain trace gases absorb and re-emit reflected long waves solar radiation, and warm the atmosphere. There's no question about the existence of this effect. Without it, the earth would have the same climate as the moon. It may interest the statisticians in the room to learn that the discoverer of the greenhouse effect was Svante Arrhenius, father-in-law of Herman Wold discoverer of the decomposition theorem, evidence that at least somewhere in the neighborhood in every great discovery looks to statisticians. The number of human activities contribute greenhouse gases to the atmosphere. The most important of these is the consumption of fossil fuels which contributes around six giga-tons of carbon per year or around 5% of the total annual . As a consequence, the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide is increased by about 25% since the industrial revolution, with the bulk of the increase occurring in the post-war period and the concentration of other greenhouse gases that are shown here have also increased. The effect that increased greenhouse gas concentrations is to increase the radiative forcing on the climate system, you're a live show . It's possible to make a back of the envelope calculation of the direct effect on temperature at equilibrium of a given change in radiative forcing, for example, if the level of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere would double, radiative forcing would increase by about 4.4 watts per squared meter. If the climate system were then allowed to come into equilibrium, the direct effect on mean global temperature would be a rise of around 1.2 degrees centigrade. This kind of calculation is virtually meaningless. First, the direct temperature effect would be modified even dominated by feedback process. That is climate processes that respond to warming in ways that affect the warming. The best known of these is the water vapor feedback. Global warming would tend to increase evaporation, putting more water vapor into the atmosphere. Free water vapors is a greenhouse gas. In fact, it is by far the most important greenhouse gas so this would lead to further warming. Other important feedback processes include the ice-albedo feedback, which plays an important role in ice age climate. Feedbacks within the carbon cycle which are poorly understood, and cloud feedback which is both very potent and very poorly known. Second, the climate system takes many centuries to reach equilibrium. What we will actually experience is called transient climate change. The rate at which climate approaches equilibrium depends primarily on the behavior of the ocean in storing and transporting heat. Third, by itself, mean global temperature is not particularly informative. The impacts of climate change will depend on its regional distribution. This will also depend to a large extent on ocean circulation. In short, the back of an envelope will just not do, instead climate colleges have turned to large-scale numerical climate models. The most comprehensive of these are called coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation model or coupled of GCMs. Coupled GCMS are the cadillacs of climate models. Unfortunately, they get about a 10th of a mile to the gallon. They also break down a lot. Luckily, there's still a lot to be learned from simpler climate models. Perhaps the most basic uncertainty about global warming concerns the sensitivity of mean global temperature to changes in radiative forcing. This is commonly measured by a parameter called temperature sensitivity. Temperature sensitivity is defined as the equilibrium response, to an increasing radiative forcing of 4.4 watts per squared meter, corresponding with doubling of CO2 in the atmosphere. It's often said that the likely range of temperature sensitivity is one and a half to four and a half degrees centigrade. This is not a statistical range in any sense but only the range exhibited by a number of models. I'd like to spend the next few minutes talking about the estimation of temperature sensitivity using historic temperature data in conjunction with a relatively simple climate model. It's sometimes said that by emitting large quantities of greenhouse gases, we're conducting an experiment in the atmosphere. In fact, there's a total increase in radiative forcing due to greenhouse gas emissions since the industrial revolution, amounts to nearly 2.2 watts per squared meter, we have already conducted an experiment and we ought to be able to learn something from it. This is an instrumental record of mean global temperature for the period 1880 to 1990. This record was constructed by combining records from a large number of recording stations. A word is an order about the quality of these data. The word is lousy but it's really all that we have to go on. As you can see, this record shows in the regular warming, mapping to perhaps four tenths of a degree centigrade over the observation period. This is an estimate of the increase in radiative forcing due to changes in greenhouse gas concentrations over the same period. If we assume that first, all the historic warming represents a response to secular changes in radiative forcing, and second, that the only secular changes in radiative forcing are those due to greenhouse gases, then it is possible to estimate temperature sensitivity by applying the same forcing to a climate model and determining the value of temperature sensitivity that gives the temperature response closest to the historic data. For example, this slide shows the smooth historic record. That's the wiggly line, super imposed on model reconstructions for selected values of temperature sensitivity. From one degrees up to five degrees in steps of one degree. You can see that the best fitting value with temperature sensitivity is around one and a half degrees centigrade. because we're focusing here on mean global temperature, it's not necessary to use a general circulation model. Instead a simple or transient model, consisting of an energy balance atmospheric model coupled to an upwelling-diffusion ocean model can be used. To a statistician, a point estimate like 1.5 degrees centigrade is almost useless. The real question is with apologies to Strunk and White, with what values of temperature sensitivity is the historic record not inconsistent? The answer to this question depends very much on the nature of the variations of global temperature around any secular trend. If these variations are pretty much random from year to year, they may tend to average out over time. And the estimate of temperature sensitivity is relatively precise. On the other hand, if global temperature can wander away from a secular trend for long periods of time, then even a century's worth of data may be dominated by such behavior and the estimate of sensitivity may be very poor. In other words, the key to estimating temperature sensitivity from historic data, is getting the natural variability right. There's every reason to believe the natural temperature variability is large and persistent. This is the output of a 100 year control run of a simple coupled GCM. By control run, I mean that no change in forcing was applied to the model. In other words, this is the model's depiction of unperturbed climate. You can see the temperature excursions of up to a few tenths of a degree centigrade can occur over just a few decades. By the way, there's nothing stochastic about this model. These variations are true chaos. In a very nice paper, Peter Bloomfield considered a range of stochastic models of natural temperature variability. Adopting a model of fractionally integrated white noise, he concluded that an approximate 95% confidence interval for temperature sensitivity is around 0.7 to 2.4 degrees centigrade. Similar, although less careful studies have found similar results. This is definitely at the low-end of the commonly cited range for temperature sensitivity. It is also the main source of my skepticism over global warming. The models that predict rapid future warming of large magnitude, also indicate that there should have been much more historic warming than we have actually experienced. Remember that this approached to estimating temperature sensitivity was based on two assumptions. The first was the all the start-up warming was greenhouse warming. Many climatologists do not believe that this assumption is warranted. I recently analyzed the freezing history of Lake Constance in Switzerland. Lake Constance is the third largest Lake in Europe, which would make it about the 12th largest Lake in Minnesota for record of the years during which Lake Constance experienced the major freeze is available. This record begins in 875 AD. This is 1100 years of climate data. Lake Constance freezes only rarely, 58 times during this period. I was interested in the way in which the frequency of these freezes has changed through time. I modeled the occurrence of freezes as a non-stationary poisson process and estimated the rate function by kernel estimation. Here are the results. Around the year 1000, the rate of freezes was low. This is a period known as the medieval optimum or the viking optimum. It was during this period that Greenland got its name. After around 1300, the rate of freezes increase sharply peaking around 1500. This is the little ice age. The terminal pulse of the little ice age is apparent at the beginning of the 19th century. This overall pattern of natural climate change could be seen in a variety of indirect records, such as this, the point is, that the instrumental record began during the cool period. The 19th century was one of the coolest centuries in the last thousand years. In part, what is so anomalous about the instrumental record is not that it is so warm at the end, but that it was so cool at the beginning. It's not really clear what caused the little ice age. There's no evidence that it was caused by changes in atmospheric composition. Some people believe that it was related to variations in solar activity but the evidence is circumstantial at best. The most likely explanation is that the little ice age represented a large scale internal variation in climate, similar to the kind of behavior that you saw in the GCM control run. The second assumption underlying the estimation of temperature sensitivity, is that the only secular change in radiative forcing, over the past century was that due to changes in greenhouse gas concentrations. This assumption has also been challenged. Specifically, there's evidence that the level of sulfate aerosols also from the consumption of fossil fuels has increased in recent decades. These aerosols form condensation nuclei for cloud and may also act to brighten clouds. In this way, they have a cooling effect on climate. Historic data on aerosol concentrations are poor and the science is not well understood. Nevertheless, it is possible that these aerosols have suppressed what otherwise would have been a more rapid warming. Failure to account for this, would lead to an underestimation of temperature sensitivity. This is an important problem. I've been trying to attack it indirectly in the following way, temperature sensitivity, as I said, is typically estimated by using the secular temperature response to changes in radiative forcing. It turns out that the nature of the variability around this response also depends on temperature sensitivity. If temperature sensitivity is high, this variability is large and persistent. On the other hand, if the temperature sensitivity is low, this variability is small, less persistent. It follows the inference about temperature sensitivity can be based on historic variability around the trend. In this way, the problem of reconstructing secular changes in historic forcing, can be circumvented. Although I will spare you the details using likelihood methods in the frequency domain, I found results that were virtually identical to those done by Bloomfield. A point estimate of temperature sensitivity of 1.4 degrees centigrade and an approximate 95% confidence interval of 0.9, 2.3 degrees centigrade. One interpretation of this result is that the amount of warming suppressed by sulfate aerosols is just balanced by the amount of historic warming, not due to greenhouse gas emissions. I've talked so far only about temperature as temperature changes, so may other climate processes, such as precipitation, sea level and storm climate. The impacts of climate change on human society, may actually depend more on these kinds of changes than on temperature itself. Unfortunately, they are even more difficult to predict. Let me run through them briefly. General circulation models do include precipitation among their output. There is however substantial disagreement among models about changes in precipitation arising from global warming. The popular view is that global warming will result in less precipitation. In fact, on a global basis, precipitation is likely to increase by five to 15%. Any increase in precipitation in mid-continent regions, may be more than offset by increased evaporation leading to drier soils. This is something you know much more about than I. In New England, we really don't have any soil. The response at sea level global warming is not included in GCMs and must be estimated by other means. There are two components to this response. The first is thermal or steric expansion of seawater, and the second is melting of glaciers and ice caps. 10 years ago, there was some fear that global warming would lead to the disintegration of the West Antarctic ice sheet causing sea level to rise 20 feet or more. Careful study to put this fear to rest, and then estimated sea level was reduced to three to nine feet, a rise of three to nine feet, mainly due to melting, but not collapse of the Antarctic ice sheet. It is now widely believed that the Antarctic ice sheet will actually grow in response to global warming. And the current estimate of sea level rise is around a foot with a real possibility that sea level will actually fall. It is also sometimes claimed that global warming will lead to more and more powerful tropical storms and hurricanes. The argument here is that tropical storms can only originate when sea surface temperature reaches a certain threshold. With global warming, this threshold would be reached more frequently. On the other hand, tropical storms do not always form when sea surface temperature is high. They also require high levels of any kinetic energy in the atmosphere. The level of this energy is related to the latitude, no temperature gradient. The regional distribution of global warming is expected to reduce this gradient as high latitudes were more than low latitudes. This would act to reduce the frequency of tropical storm. As they used to say in the sixties things are more complicated than they are. At the beginning of this talk, I referred to the global warming debate. As far as the science is concerned however, there's relatively little debate. Nobody seriously believes that there will be no fanatic response to ongoing changes in atmospheric composition. There's some debate about temperature sensitivity but most people's interval estimates overlap substantially. There's also some debate about highly speculative aspects of the climate system. For example, whether it has multiple equilibria, but this is hardly science. The real debate over global warming is what if anything, we should do about it. Deciding how to respond to climate change is not primarily a scientific question. It may well be that the earth will be warmer in the next century than it has been the past 2 million years. As impressive as it sounds, it is really neither here nor there. The question is what would be the impacts on human society and what are the costs and benefits of policies aimed at avoiding or mitigating negative impacts. It is useful and accurate to think about responding to climate change as a social investment decision. We need to decide whether, and by how much we should reduce current welfare to avoid potential future reductions in welfare. In making this calculation, welfare should be measured in the broadest most inclusive way. If climate change causes the extinction of species and people care about that and they do, then they should be included. If people simply do not like the idea of anthropogenic climate change, then this should also be included. Supposed we had perfect knowledge. In that case, the rational approach is simply to maximize welfare discounted in some way over time. Even in this unrealistic case, the uneven distribution of welfare will make it really difficult although in principle, transfer payments could be used to smooth away. The issue of distribution over time, what is called intergenerational equity would also have to be phased. Suppose now that we do not have perfect knowledge but that our uncertainty can be expressed in terms of a probability distribution, how deathly I switch from the classical to the Daisy in paradigm. In this case, the rational response is to maximize expected welfare, again discounted in some way over time. In addition to all the complications involved in measuring welfare and discounting it over time, new complications arise in assessing probabilities. There's a further complication. Most people are risk averse, loosely speaking they're willing to accept lower expected income to avoid uncertainty. This would also have to be factored into the calculation. All of this is of course much easier said than done. It will not be easy to fill in the blanks, people will disagree, mistakes will turn out to have been made. Nevertheless, the point is that there's a perfectly good way to think about how to respond to climate change. Not surprisingly, a good deal of work has been done on assessing the economic impacts of global warming and the economic cost to the emissions reductions. In rough terms, these admittedly preliminary calculations suggest that for the United States, the economic costs of moderate global warming would be something less than 1% of GNP per year, roughly $150 billion per year. This strikes many people as remarkably low. The economic costs of moderate emissions reductions would be two to three times larger even the most pessimistic assessment that I have seen suggesting that the economic losses due to a certain 10 degrees centigrade warming, 300 years from now, would only be around 5% of GNP. If we take these more or less mainstream estimates as roughly correct, and I will mention some criticisms in a moment. Then it seems to me that investing in climate stabilization is a loser. To put it in perspective, if we assume a cost of emissions reduction of half a percent of GNP per year, an economic growth rate of 3% and a discount rate of 5% then we're talking about an investment of $5 trillion. Even if the estimated impacts of climate change are off by a factor of 10, it still seems hard to argue that compared to investing in healthcare, education, basic research and development, even reconstructing Eastern Europe that this would be our best shot. On the other hand, if the choice is between investing in climate stabilization and investing in Star Wars congressional perquisites, and yes the Lawrence Welk museum, then it may be a different story. As I mentioned, the mainstream estimates of the impact of climate change and the cost of avoiding it have not gone uncriticized. First, the calculations do not include impacts that are difficult to measure. For example, effects on unmanaged ecosystems. There is of course, a lot of scientific uncertainty about what these might be. There are also philosophical questions about what constitutes harm with natural system. Although this is not a view to which I subscribe, my father often cites a philosopher friend in saying that we should not do anything to an animal that another animal would not do. Second, the claim is sometimes made that quite apart from global warming, emissions reductions would actually benefit the economy. It seems likely that the failure of the market to capture externalities associated with burning fossil fuels, such as acid rain and air pollution has led to overconsumption. It remains to be seen however how large these effects are and whether emissions reduction are the best ways to address them. By the way, I'm not one of those people who believes that these calculations inevitably come out on the side of doing nothing about environmental problems. Ozone depletion is a good casing point. Stratospheric ozone protects the earth surface from ultraviolet radiation. The ozone layer has been depleted by chlorofluorocarbons. Chlorofluorocarbons are also potent long-lived greenhouse gases. The scientific understanding of the details of ozone depletion is still fairly rudimentary. The impacts of increased ultraviolet radiation on agriculture and public health are also not clear. On the other hand, the world economy runs on fossil fuels not on chlorofluorocarbons and the economic cost of phasing out chlorofluorocarbons are modest. No more than please pardon the expression, a few billion dollars. Even a possibility of a real disaster however remote, this seems a reasonable price to pay. It's reassuring that most of the world's nations see it pretty much the same way. I'm afraid that I've gotten a bit editorial here. I suppose that my main message is something like this, although we certainly do not have all the answers about global warming, we do know most of the important questions. This by itself is progress. Three or four years ago, it was heresy to suggest that there were any questions. We also have some idea about how to address these questions by careful, dispassionate science. As a consequence, some preliminary answers are beginning to trickle in. There's disagreement of course, but having place things on a firmer methodological pudding, it should be possible to sort out these disagreements in the sense of a way. My expectation is that short of some very bad news, the nations of the world will respond incrementally to global warming. My guess is that they will not regret it. Thank you very much. I'd be happy to answer any questions if you have any. Are there any questions?\r\n\r\n- So is the verdict still on, on global the influence of carbon dioxide and contribution to ?\r\n\r\n- Okay, if I'm thinking of the same paper, Dave Thompson established a correlation between levels of carbon dioxide in the atmospheric temperature that was it-- The paper I saw was in the nature.\r\n\r\n- This is a different one than the ones ,\r\n\r\n- Well, it's a nice piece of work, the interesting thing is that what Dave found was that carbon dioxide follows temperature, that when you have a warm year, then people are warm, season then typically the next season carbon dioxide is higher in the atmosphere. So what Dave has found is a kind of biological feedback in the carbon cycle. I don't know that anyone had actually found it by looking at the data, but it's well understood if you have a warm growing season, then in one hemisphere then you have, you have more outgassing of carbon in the following seasons that kind of of process. So, your first question was whether the jury is still out, I think that qualitatively the jury is not out, that there is a relationship between carbon dioxide concentrations and temperature. The question is what specifically is that relationship? How sensitive is the climate system to changes in atmospheric composition? And I think that the jury is very much out on that in the sense that the interval estimates are fairly wide. Well, I can't comment on the accuracy of the figures. If we keep burning fossil fuels at the rate or an increased rate-- At the increasing rate that we have recently, then in the next 50 years, we probably will double the level of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. Once it gets there, it stays there for a long time to decades, maybe more. There are these other greenhouse gases which are becoming increasingly important. Methane is produced by burning natural gas for example. And so, even if we run out of oil what that means is that we switch to natural gas, we may just be switching to greenhouse gases. I think it's a complicated issue, on the other hand, if we start running out of oil speaking as a failed economist, seems to that the price of oil will rise and people will start switching to other kinds of fuels and if those are cleaner, if those are things like solar energy or nuclear energy assuming that the problems can be solved there then things might look better. But I wouldn't say if I were worried about global warming, I wouldn't be counting on running out of oil as a solution.\r\n\r\n- To minimize effect to global warming,\r\n\r\n- Yeah, there are-- Well, I guess if you, the question is what's the constraint? if you say, well we wanna have is we wanna place a constraint on the amount of radiative forcing that we cause in the climates system then under such a constraint it should be possible to make a calculation like that. I think that energy, people were interested in energy policy to do that kind of thing. There's a feeling that in the United States that we use too much petroleum, that we use too much gasoline, and not enough natural gas or other kinds of fuels, but that's not-- I'm not an expert on that. It's not a . Yeah, that's true, that about 40% of the carbon that's being emitted is going somewhere a little bit less than that but we don't know where. A lot of carbon goes into the ocean. And a lot of carbon goes into the atmosphere but still 30 or 40% of the carbon emissions go into what's called the missing sink. Now there are a couple of possibilities. One is that there is a large missing sink. It could just be that we've underestimated the amount of carbon taken up by the ocean, that's certainly possible because those estimates are revised constantly. Some people think that the missing sink may be soils in temperate latitudes like in North America, but you know what, that's a speculation and I suppose people are looking, but that's not, that's easier to say than to do. Another possibility is, I think stronger than a possibility is that there's a missing sink only to the extent that we haven't overestimated emission, part of the explanation maybe be that we've overestimated the amount of carbon emission in the atmosphere, The source of that old resignation is almost as certain as deforestation. The estimates of the contribution of carbon dioxide from deforestation are really quite high, it's about 1.6 giga-tons. And I think that that's-- Many people believe that's much too high. That the contribution is perhaps a giga-ton smaller than that. The reason that they believe it is possible to distinguish between carbon dioxide in the atmosphere is coming from fossil fuels and carbon dioxide that's coming from biomass burning because of an isotopic ratio is different. And when they go looking for biomass burning carbon in the atmosphere, they don't find very much. The estimates of the contribution is not based on that kind of analysis is based on a different kind of measurement. So I suspect that there is a missing sink, but that it's not as big as some people may think because we've overestimated the amount of emission. Well, first I would say that I agree with that. I think that that's an important issue and I tell each of my six children every morning I don't have six. No, I absolutely, I think that, it's not a statistical issue, but I agree, completely that the real problem, if there is a real problem, the real problem is that are too many people, giving it to that many people though, we need to take care of them. That's a long-term problem too, to reduce the world's population that takes many hundreds of years, I would think, or certainly its a very long-term problem. And, it's something that I think we should care about and try to do, but again, it's not an immediate solution to any problem. Any other questions? Great. Firstly, as far as impacts are concerned that's almost surely true that health impacts from high temperature, come from extreme high temperature advance from heat wave, not just from changes in the mean, it's always difficult to handle extreme values. They can be very sensitive to small changes.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116339#t=0.0,2767.36"}]}]},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116340","type":"Canvas","label":{"en":["Media File 2 of 2 - AV204090_Global_Warming_Statistical_b.mp3"]},"duration":269.32245,"width":640,"height":40,"thumbnail":[{"id":"https://d9jk7wjtjpu5g.cloudfront.net/collection_resource_files/thumbnails/000/116/340/small/lecture.png?1622659549","type":"Image","format":"image/png"}],"items":[{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116340/content/1","type":"AnnotationPage","items":[{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116340/content/2/annotation/1","type":"Annotation","motivation":"painting","body":{"id":"https://aviary-p-iastate.s3.wasabisys.com/collection_resource_files/resource_files/000/116/340/original/AV204090_Global_Warming_Statistical_b.mp3?1622659549","type":"Audio","format":"audio/mpeg","duration":269.32245,"width":640,"height":40},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116340","metadata":[]}]}],"annotations":[{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116340/transcript/28318","type":"AnnotationPage","label":{"en":["AV204090_Global_Warming_Statistical_b.vtt [Transcript]"]},"items":[{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116340/transcript/28318/annotation/1","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"\u003cstrong\u003e Lecturer:\u003c/strong\u003e Let's say daily temperature will be reduced,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116340#t=5.21,8.804"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116340/transcript/28318/annotation/2","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"and, if there's global warming,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116340#t=8.804,10.07"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116340/transcript/28318/annotation/3","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"some people find the opposite.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116340#t=10.07,12.507"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116340/transcript/28318/annotation/4","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"So it's pretty much take your pick.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116340#t=12.507,15.842"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116340/transcript/28318/annotation/5","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"The kind of thing that's interesting","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116340#t=15.842,17.9"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116340/transcript/28318/annotation/6","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"that people have noticed is that,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116340#t=17.9,20.15"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116340/transcript/28318/annotation/7","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"in some of the places where there has been warming","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116340#t=20.15,22.67"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116340/transcript/28318/annotation/8","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"historically, it's the minimum,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116340#t=22.67,26.62"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116340/transcript/28318/annotation/9","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"daily minimum temperatures that are rising.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116340#t=26.62,29.07"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116340/transcript/28318/annotation/10","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"That there's been little change","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116340#t=29.07,30.34"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116340/transcript/28318/annotation/11","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"in daily maximum temperatures.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116340#t=30.34,32.54"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116340/transcript/28318/annotation/12","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"So it's warming at night.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116340#t=32.54,34.283"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116340/transcript/28318/annotation/13","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"Now, why that would be if,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116340#t=35.67,39.44"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116340/transcript/28318/annotation/14","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"it's not easy to say.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116340#t=39.44,40.5"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116340/transcript/28318/annotation/15","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"It may be related to the changes in clouds.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116340#t=40.5,43.593"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116340/transcript/28318/annotation/16","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"During the night clouds tend to warm.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116340#t=44.93,47.901"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116340/transcript/28318/annotation/17","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"During the day they tend to cool.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116340#t=47.901,50.522"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116340/transcript/28318/annotation/18","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"So, but that's an interesting problem","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116340#t=50.522,53.605"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116340/transcript/28318/annotation/19","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"that needs further research.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116340#t=54.609,56.942"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116340/transcript/28318/annotation/20","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"\u003cstrong\u003e Male Student:\u003c/strong\u003e Yeah, it sounds like","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116340#t=60.871,62.917"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116340/transcript/28318/annotation/21","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"you're not overly concerned,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116340#t=62.917,64.61"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116340/transcript/28318/annotation/22","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"or at least not too worried about the potential","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116340#t=64.61,67.156"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116340/transcript/28318/annotation/23","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"influences of global warming on mankind as yet.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116340#t=67.156,71.168"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116340/transcript/28318/annotation/24","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"I think about your topic morals,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116340#t=71.168,73.745"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116340/transcript/28318/annotation/25","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"and about how the extinction of species","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116340#t=73.745,76.66"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116340/transcript/28318/annotation/26","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"has been in conjunction to correlate","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116340#t=76.66,79.735"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116340/transcript/28318/annotation/27","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"with atmospheric conditions","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116340#t=79.735,82.206"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116340/transcript/28318/annotation/28","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"Am I not to worry?","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116340#t=82.206,84.09"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116340/transcript/28318/annotation/29","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"\u003cstrong\u003e Lecturer:\u003c/strong\u003e well, the two species I'm gonna talk","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116340#t=84.09,85.59"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116340/transcript/28318/annotation/30","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"about tomorrow is the Caribbean monk seal,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116340#t=85.59,88.84"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116340/transcript/28318/annotation/31","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"and that went extinct before there was any warming.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116340#t=88.84,92.311"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116340/transcript/28318/annotation/32","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"And in fact, the warmth went out in that case*.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116340#t=92.311,95.81"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116340/transcript/28318/annotation/33","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"And the black-footed ferret,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116340#t=95.81,97.95"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116340/transcript/28318/annotation/34","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"and that was extinct mainly by virtue of roadkill.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116340#t=97.95,101.33"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116340/transcript/28318/annotation/35","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"So there's a loose correlation.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116340#t=101.33,104.274"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116340/transcript/28318/annotation/36","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"(students laugh)","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116340#t=104.274,107.024"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116340/transcript/28318/annotation/37","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"I, you know, I think this is.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116340#t=107.867,110.87"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116340/transcript/28318/annotation/38","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"I hate to keep saying this is a difficult question.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116340#t=110.87,113.25"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116340/transcript/28318/annotation/39","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"It's very simplistic to think that if you,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116340#t=113.25,116.676"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116340/transcript/28318/annotation/40","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"that a warmer world will cause species to become unhappy.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116340#t=116.676,121.676"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116340/transcript/28318/annotation/41","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"Most species seem to be happier when it gets warmer.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116340#t=123.04,127.71"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116340/transcript/28318/annotation/42","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"Greenhouse world is going,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116340#t=127.71,130.677"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116340/transcript/28318/annotation/43","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"if we're gonna have a greenhouse world,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116340#t=130.677,133.15"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116340/transcript/28318/annotation/44","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"it's gonna be a warmer,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116340#t=133.15,134.85"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116340/transcript/28318/annotation/45","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"and wetter world.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116340#t=134.85,136.93"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116340/transcript/28318/annotation/46","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"And that's kind of an environment","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116340#t=136.93,139.9"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116340/transcript/28318/annotation/47","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"where you'd find a lot of diversity,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116340#t=139.9,142.6"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116340/transcript/28318/annotation/48","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"a lot of different kinds of species.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116340#t=142.6,144.81"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116340/transcript/28318/annotation/49","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"Now you have these distributional problems.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116340#t=144.81,146.98"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116340/transcript/28318/annotation/50","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"Some species may not like it.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116340#t=146.98,149.74"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116340/transcript/28318/annotation/51","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"And other species may, may like it a lot.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116340#t=149.74,153.35"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116340/transcript/28318/annotation/52","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"And these things have to be sorted out.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116340#t=153.35,155.051"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116340/transcript/28318/annotation/53","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"I do, as I say, I value the existence of species","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116340#t=155.051,159.94"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116340/transcript/28318/annotation/54","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"even if I never see them,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116340#t=159.94,162.0"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116340/transcript/28318/annotation/55","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"even if I never know about them.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116340#t=162.0,163.643"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116340/transcript/28318/annotation/56","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"It seems like a nice thing to have around.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116340#t=164.79,167.18"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116340/transcript/28318/annotation/57","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"But the question is,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116340#t=167.18,168.633"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116340/transcript/28318/annotation/58","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"the question is what will be the impacts on species?","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116340#t=170.355,172.87"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116340/transcript/28318/annotation/59","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"And how much should we be willing to,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116340#t=172.87,174.72"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116340/transcript/28318/annotation/60","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"although it's a harsh way to say it,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116340#t=177.822,179.72"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116340/transcript/28318/annotation/61","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"how much should we be willing to pay to avoid those impacts?","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116340#t=179.72,183.663"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116340/transcript/28318/annotation/62","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"\u003cstrong\u003e Female Student:\u003c/strong\u003e Do these gasses also have an effect on","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116340#t=186.594,191.397"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116340/transcript/28318/annotation/63","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"the well-being of animals,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116340#t=191.397,193.586"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116340/transcript/28318/annotation/64","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"and plants, and things that are living right now?","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116340#t=193.586,196.07"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116340/transcript/28318/annotation/65","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"Could global warming,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116340#t=196.07,197.47"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116340/transcript/28318/annotation/66","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"could that be be part of the reason for,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116340#t=197.47,200.12"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116340/transcript/28318/annotation/67","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"the cause of this?","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116340#t=200.12,200.953"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116340/transcript/28318/annotation/68","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"\u003cstrong\u003e Lecturer:\u003c/strong\u003e Uh, no.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116340#t=200.953,202.05"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116340/transcript/28318/annotation/69","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"Well, plants love carbon dioxide.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116340#t=202.05,204.993"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116340/transcript/28318/annotation/70","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"So carbon dioxide is good for plants.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116340#t=206.3,209.52"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116340/transcript/28318/annotation/71","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"These gasses,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116340#t=209.52,210.6"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116340/transcript/28318/annotation/72","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"the greenhouse gasses that I'm talking","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116340#t=210.6,213.02"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116340/transcript/28318/annotation/73","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"about all reside high in the atmosphere.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116340#t=213.02,217.11"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116340/transcript/28318/annotation/74","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"So no plants I'm afraid,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116340#t=217.11,218.752"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116340/transcript/28318/annotation/75","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"no species are going to be","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116340#t=218.752,221.19"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116340/transcript/28318/annotation/76","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"directly affected by them.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116340#t=221.19,223.66"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116340/transcript/28318/annotation/77","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"Pollution of course, that can affect animals,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116340#t=223.66,227.64"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116340/transcript/28318/annotation/78","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"and plants.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116340#t=227.64,228.64"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116340/transcript/28318/annotation/79","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"Although again, there's a question.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116340#t=228.64,232.5"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116340/transcript/28318/annotation/80","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"I saw an article in \"The Times\" today","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116340#t=232.5,234.86"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116340/transcript/28318/annotation/81","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"that European forests are actually","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116340#t=234.86,237.01"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116340/transcript/28318/annotation/82","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"doing just fine thank you.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116340#t=237.01,238.563"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116340/transcript/28318/annotation/83","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"Despite the loading, the pollution loading.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116340#t=239.48,242.355"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116340/transcript/28318/annotation/84","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"In part because they like carbon dioxide,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116340#t=242.355,245.008"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116340/transcript/28318/annotation/85","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"and nitrogen, any kind of nitrogen in the atmosphere so.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116340#t=245.008,249.675"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116340/transcript/28318/annotation/86","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"Okay, thank you very much.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116340#t=258.174,259.812"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116340/transcript/28318/annotation/87","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"(brief applause)","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116340#t=259.812,262.562"}]},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116340/transcript/28318","type":"AnnotationPage","label":{"en":["English [Transcript]"]},"items":[{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116340/transcript/28318/annotation/88","type":"Annotation","motivation":"subtitling","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"https://d9jk7wjtjpu5g.cloudfront.net/file_transcripts/associated_files/000/028/318/original/AV204090_Global_Warming_Statistical_b.vtt?1622659550","format":"text/vtt","language":"en"},"target":"https://d9jk7wjtjpu5g.cloudfront.net/file_transcripts/associated_files/000/028/318/original/AV204090_Global_Warming_Statistical_b.vtt?1622659550"}]},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116340/transcript/28319","type":"AnnotationPage","label":{"en":["AV204090_Global_Warming_Statistical_b.txt [Transcript]"]},"items":[{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116340/transcript/28319/annotation/89","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"- [Lecturer] Let's say daily temperature will be reduced, and, if there's global warming, some people find the opposite. So it's pretty much take your pick. The kind of thing that's interesting that people have noticed is that, in some of the places where there has been warming historically, it's the minimum, daily minimum temperatures that are rising. That there's been little change in daily maximum temperatures. So it's warming at night. Now, why that would be if, it's not easy to say. It may be related to the changes in clouds. During the night clouds tend to warm. During the day they tend to cool. So, but that's an interesting problem that needs further research.\r\n\r\n- [Male Student] Yeah, it sounds like you're not overly concerned, or at least not too worried about the potential influences of global warming on mankind as yet. I think about your topic morals, and about how the extinction of species has been in conjunction to correlate with atmospheric conditions Am I not to worry?\r\n\r\n- [Lecturer] well, the two species I'm gonna talk about tomorrow is the Caribbean monk seal, and that went extinct before there was any warming. And in fact, the warmth went out in that case*. And the black-footed ferret, and that was extinct mainly by virtue of roadkill. So there's a loose correlation. I, you know, I think this is. I hate to keep saying this is a difficult question. It's very simplistic to think that if you, that a warmer world will cause species to become unhappy. Most species seem to be happier when it gets warmer. Greenhouse world is going, if we're gonna have a greenhouse world, it's gonna be a warmer, and wetter world. And that's kind of an environment where you'd find a lot of diversity, a lot of different kinds of species. Now you have these distributional problems. Some species may not like it. And other species may, may like it a lot. And these things have to be sorted out. I do, as I say, I value the existence of species even if I never see them, even if I never know about them. It seems like a nice thing to have around. But the question is, the question is what will be the impacts on species? And how much should we be willing to, although it's a harsh way to say it, how much should we be willing to pay to avoid those impacts?\r\n\r\n- [Female Student] Do these gasses also have an effect on the well-being of animals, and plants, and things that are living right now? Could global warming, could that be be part of the reason for, the cause of this?\r\n\r\n- [Lecturer] Uh, no. Well, plants love carbon dioxide. So carbon dioxide is good for plants. These gasses, the greenhouse gasses that I'm talking about all reside high in the atmosphere. So no plants I'm afraid, no species are going to be directly affected by them. Pollution of course, that can affect animals, and plants. Although again, there's a question. I saw an article in \"The Times\" today that European forests are actually doing just fine thank you. Despite the loading, the pollution loading. In part because they like carbon dioxide, and nitrogen, any kind of nitrogen in the atmosphere so. Okay, thank you very much.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/2486/collection_resources/43429/file/116340#t=0.0,269.32245"}]}]}]}