{"@context":"http://iiif.io/api/presentation/3/context.json","id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/iiif/9s1kh0fh8p/manifest","type":"Manifest","label":{"en":["Hartley, H. O., Computers and Statistics"]},"logo":"https://d9jk7wjtjpu5g.cloudfront.net/organizations/logo_images/000/000/004/original/ISULogo.png?1601681107","metadata":[{"label":{"en":["Preferred Citation"]},"value":{"en":["Computers and Statistics. Iowa State University Lecture Series (RS 8/6/53). Special Collections and University Archives, Iowa State University Library, Ames, Iowa."]}},{"label":{"en":["Publisher"]},"value":{"en":["Iowa State University. Special Collections and University Archives"]}},{"label":{"en":["Rights Statement"]},"value":{"en":["There are no restrictions on access. (access)","This item is protected by copyright and/or related rights. You are free to use this item in any way that is permitted by the copyright and related rights legislation that applies to your use. 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Hartley discusses the use of computer modeling in biology and chemistry.","This item was captioned by Rev.com in conformance with WCAG 2.1 AA accessibility guidelines."]},"requiredStatement":{"label":{"en":["Attribution"]},"value":{"en":["There are no restrictions on access.","This item is protected by copyright and/or related rights. You are free to use this item in any way that is permitted by the copyright and related rights legislation that applies to your use. 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[Transcript]"]},"items":[{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719/transcript/30805/annotation/1","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"\u003cstrong\u003e -:\u003c/strong\u003e There's an ever going wealth of mathematical models","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719#t=4.6,9.3"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719/transcript/30805/annotation/2","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"which are formulated and used to describe phenomena","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719#t=9.3,14.3"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719/transcript/30805/annotation/3","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"in the chemical and biochemical sciences.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719#t=14.6,18.34"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719/transcript/30805/annotation/4","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"We must therefore confine ourselves here","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719#t=18.34,21.23"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719/transcript/30805/annotation/5","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"to a special case, namely, deterministic models","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719#t=21.23,26.07"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719/transcript/30805/annotation/6","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"to describe time response relationships.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719#t=26.07,30.08"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719/transcript/30805/annotation/7","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"An important subclass of these are growth phenomena.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719#t=30.08,35.05"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719/transcript/30805/annotation/8","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"Be it that they are concerned","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719#t=35.05,37.718"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719/transcript/30805/annotation/9","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"with the growth of a biological entity","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719#t=37.718,40.56"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719/transcript/30805/annotation/10","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"such as the weight or size of an animal,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719#t=40.56,44.17"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719/transcript/30805/annotation/11","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"or as the growth of a concentration","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719#t=44.17,47.37"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719/transcript/30805/annotation/12","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"in a chemical reaction or others.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719#t=47.37,49.883"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719/transcript/30805/annotation/13","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"Most of the mathematical models that are invoked","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719#t=50.9,54.3"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719/transcript/30805/annotation/14","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"describe growth or time of response in general","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719#t=56.7,61.547"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719/transcript/30805/annotation/15","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"as arising from differential equations.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719#t=63.05,67.69"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719/transcript/30805/annotation/16","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"Let us describe how such an equation","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719#t=67.69,71.097"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719/transcript/30805/annotation/17","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"arises in a very simple example here.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719#t=71.097,74.653"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719/transcript/30805/annotation/18","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"Here then, we have an example of a 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running.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719#t=86.06,90.24"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719/transcript/30805/annotation/21","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"We first assume a model that is an idealized theory","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719#t=90.24,95.21"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719/transcript/30805/annotation/22","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"for the differential 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reaction.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719#t=99.44,102.88"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719/transcript/30805/annotation/25","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"Y sub T denotes the concentration","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719#t=102.88,106.33"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719/transcript/30805/annotation/26","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"of this chemical at time T.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719#t=106.33,110.244"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719/transcript/30805/annotation/27","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"Y sub T.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719#t=110.244,111.077"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719/transcript/30805/annotation/28","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"And we may in certain cases make the following assumptions:","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719#t=115.21,119.573"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719/transcript/30805/annotation/29","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"we assume that the concentration will eventually","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719#t=120.72,124.09"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719/transcript/30805/annotation/30","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"reach a stable level.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719#t=124.09,126.033"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719/transcript/30805/annotation/31","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"Capital Y.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719#t=127.076,128.67"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719/transcript/30805/annotation/32","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"It will grow in this case to a stable level","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719#t=128.67,131.64"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719/transcript/30805/annotation/33","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"beyond which it cannot grow.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719#t=131.64,135.06"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719/transcript/30805/annotation/34","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"Assumption number one.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719#t=135.06,136.66"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719/transcript/30805/annotation/35","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"Assumption, number two:","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719#t=136.66,138.4"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719/transcript/30805/annotation/36","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"at any time of this growth development","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719#t=138.4,142.52"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719/transcript/30805/annotation/37","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"of the concentration,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719#t=142.52,144.2"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719/transcript/30805/annotation/38","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"the differential increase that is the slope","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719#t=144.2,147.17"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719/transcript/30805/annotation/39","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"of the growth curve is proportional","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719#t=147.17,150.02"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719/transcript/30805/annotation/40","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"to the, what I call, dilution.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719#t=150.95,154.15"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719/transcript/30805/annotation/41","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"That is the difference between the concentration reached","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719#t=154.15,158.91"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719/transcript/30805/annotation/42","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"and the final maximum 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here.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719#t=174.98,178.69"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719/transcript/30805/annotation/47","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"Growth rate divide the T,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719#t=178.69,181.23"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719/transcript/30805/annotation/48","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"proportional to the distance between 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method","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719#t=640.96,644.44"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719/transcript/30805/annotation/187","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"of solving the system of differential equation","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719#t=644.44,647.425"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719/transcript/30805/annotation/188","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"by perturbation is extremely serviceable.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719#t=647.425,652.033"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719/transcript/30805/annotation/189","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"For example, the modified Gauss-Newton method","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719#t=654.02,656.63"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719/transcript/30805/annotation/190","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"of solving nonlinear least squares problem","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719#t=656.63,660.24"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719/transcript/30805/annotation/191","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"can immediately be done","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719#t=660.24,661.84"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719/transcript/30805/annotation/192","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"even if you don't know","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719#t=661.84,664.38"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719/transcript/30805/annotation/193","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"the non linear form of the solution","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719#t=664.38,668.32"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719/transcript/30805/annotation/194","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"of differential equations.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719#t=668.32,670.65"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719/transcript/30805/annotation/195","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"There is, as many of you will know,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719#t=670.65,673.6"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719/transcript/30805/annotation/196","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"essentially nothing new in this application","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719#t=673.6,676.68"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719/transcript/30805/annotation/197","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"of high speed computer.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719#t=676.68,678.23"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719/transcript/30805/annotation/198","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"Possibly this last remark is,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719#t=678.23,680.47"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719/transcript/30805/annotation/199","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"indeed, it has been used in many areas of research.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719#t=680.47,685.2"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719/transcript/30805/annotation/200","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"To name only a few,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719#t=685.2,687.15"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719/transcript/30805/annotation/201","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"the study of enzyme reactions,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719#t=687.15,690.09"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719/transcript/30805/annotation/202","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"the development of a theory of nerve circuits and responses,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719#t=690.09,694.67"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719/transcript/30805/annotation/203","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"explorations of the responses in the output","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719#t=694.67,698.1"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719/transcript/30805/annotation/204","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"of chemical plants to systematic changes","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719#t=698.1,701.56"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719/transcript/30805/annotation/205","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"in controllable factors.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719#t=701.56,703.463"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719/transcript/30805/annotation/206","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"The future will produce bigger and better computers.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719#t=704.44,709.44"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719/transcript/30805/annotation/207","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"And with their aid, we can be both bolder","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719#t=709.56,713.863"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719/transcript/30805/annotation/208","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"and at the same time, more realistic.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719#t=715.49,718.7"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719/transcript/30805/annotation/209","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"Yes, both bolder and more realistic","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719#t=718.7,722.75"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719/transcript/30805/annotation/210","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"in the formulation of our theories","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719#t=722.75,725.98"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719/transcript/30805/annotation/211","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"for we have a tool which will evaluate","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719#t=725.98,729.87"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719/transcript/30805/annotation/212","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"for us accurately and timely","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719#t=729.87,733.31"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719/transcript/30805/annotation/213","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"the consequences of a great variety of theories","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719#t=733.31,737.91"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719/transcript/30805/annotation/214","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"and thereby provide most valuable pointers","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719#t=737.91,742.1"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719/transcript/30805/annotation/215","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"to the ingenuity of the scientist.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719#t=742.1,745.1"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719/transcript/30805/annotation/216","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"Thank you.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719#t=745.1,746.714"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719/transcript/30805/annotation/217","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"(students applauding)","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719#t=746.714,749.881"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719/transcript/30805/annotation/218","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"\u003cstrong\u003e -:\u003c/strong\u003e Thank you, Dr. Harley.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719#t=756.639,757.68"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719/transcript/30805/annotation/219","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"Are there any questions anybody","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719#t=757.68,759.08"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719/transcript/30805/annotation/220","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"from the audience would like to ask?","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719#t=759.08,761.073"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719/transcript/30805/annotation/221","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"Yes?","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719#t=767.39,768.223"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719/transcript/30805/annotation/222","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"(students laughing)","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719#t=768.223,769.69"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719/transcript/30805/annotation/223","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"\u003cstrong\u003e -:\u003c/strong\u003e Somebody's got to trigger this process.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719#t=769.69,772.397"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719/transcript/30805/annotation/224","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"I'm wondering whether you really weren't","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719#t=774.94,777.55"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719/transcript/30805/annotation/225","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"making the case against the difficulty of Monte Carlo","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719#t=778.78,783.78"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719/transcript/30805/annotation/226","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"rather stronger than it should be in doing","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719#t=784.24,787.88"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719/transcript/30805/annotation/227","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"this common final result.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719#t=787.88,791.793"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719/transcript/30805/annotation/228","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"At least in the statistical inference game,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719#t=795.038,798.653"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719/transcript/30805/annotation/229","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"one really doesn't need to know","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719#t=801.61,805.337"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719/transcript/30805/annotation/230","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"the distributions so well, you know?","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719#t=805.337,808.477"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719/transcript/30805/annotation/231","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"My view on this is that it's on here","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719#t=810.589,815.464"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719/transcript/30805/annotation/232","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"if you wanted to use as our method of testing","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719#t=815.464,820.14"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719/transcript/30805/annotation/233","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"and the principle of optimality","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719#t=820.14,823.63"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719/transcript/30805/annotation/234","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"is the rather good one.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719#t=823.63,825.74"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719/transcript/30805/annotation/235","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"I liked that one.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719#t=825.74,827.107"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719/transcript/30805/annotation/236","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"The hell with everybody else.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719#t=828.11,830.067"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719/transcript/30805/annotation/237","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"Probably good principal of optimality","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719#t=830.067,832.08"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719/transcript/30805/annotation/238","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"providing one isn't being stupid.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719#t=832.08,834.133"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719/transcript/30805/annotation/239","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"Then I want to know how this thing is distributed,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719#t=835.54,838.3"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719/transcript/30805/annotation/240","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"and so I'm interested in the dragging the upper tail a bit.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719#t=838.3,842.763"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719/transcript/30805/annotation/241","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"You know, my advice is I'll just run","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719#t=844.15,847.37"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719/transcript/30805/annotation/242","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"off a couple of hundred samples, two hundred.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719#t=847.37,850.89"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719/transcript/30805/annotation/243","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"That'll give you some sort of halfway decent idea","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719#t=850.89,853.17"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719/transcript/30805/annotation/244","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"of what the tail is","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719#t=853.17,854.83"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719/transcript/30805/annotation/245","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"and that's good enough for your purposes, probably.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719#t=854.83,858.91"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719/transcript/30805/annotation/246","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"Okay? You have any reaction?","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719#t=858.91,861.31"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719/transcript/30805/annotation/247","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"\u003cstrong\u003e -:\u003c/strong\u003e I think you are right with regard to this.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719#t=861.31,863.327"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719/transcript/30805/annotation/248","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"I think this discussion of the 10 to the minus five","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719#t=863.327,867.57"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719/transcript/30805/annotation/249","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"times 10 to the minus for three accurate decimals","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719#t=867.57,871.07"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719/transcript/30805/annotation/250","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"was more addressed to the people who want","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719#t=871.07,873.96"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719/transcript/30805/annotation/251","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"to use Monte Carlo methods","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719#t=873.96,875.75"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719/transcript/30805/annotation/252","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"for computing tables of functions","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719#t=875.75,879.19"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719/transcript/30805/annotation/253","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"that are analytically not tractable.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719#t=879.19,881.84"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719/transcript/30805/annotation/254","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"If you want to produce a table","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719#t=881.84,885.03"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719/transcript/30805/annotation/255","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"of a distribution criteria, let us say","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719#t=885.03,888.32"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719/transcript/30805/annotation/256","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"biometrical tables for statisticians,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719#t=891.56,895.08"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719/transcript/30805/annotation/257","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"you would blame us (indistinct)","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719#t=895.08,897.63"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719/transcript/30805/annotation/258","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"unless we have something like three accurate decimals.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719#t=897.63,900.833"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719/transcript/30805/annotation/259","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"But I think you're absolutely right.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719#t=902.61,904.41"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719/transcript/30805/annotation/260","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"If you just want to investigate a new criterion,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719#t=904.41,907.8"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719/transcript/30805/annotation/261","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"you may well be satisfied with a much lower accuracy.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719#t=907.8,911.503"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719/transcript/30805/annotation/262","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"\u003cstrong\u003e -:\u003c/strong\u003e Yes?","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719#t=917.263,918.096"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719/transcript/30805/annotation/263","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"\u003cstrong\u003e -:\u003c/strong\u003e I'm hoping your allusion towards stochastic PERT,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719#t=919.138,923.76"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719/transcript/30805/annotation/264","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"I don't know at about it","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719#t=925.45,927.293"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719/transcript/30805/annotation/265","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"but I've been on the fringes of it","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719#t=927.293,930.08"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719/transcript/30805/annotation/266","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"and curious about how the stochastic element","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719#t=930.08,935.08"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719/transcript/30805/annotation/267","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"really is introduced in that type of thing.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719#t=935.976,940.5"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719/transcript/30805/annotation/268","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"Now, the standard non-stochastic network analysis","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719#t=940.5,944.52"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719/transcript/30805/annotation/269","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"assumes certain known times for task completion","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719#t=945.72,950.72"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719/transcript/30805/annotation/270","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"and then figures out the best route from the network","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719#t=951.67,955.587"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719/transcript/30805/annotation/271","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"'til they boost who needs to wait for what","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719#t=955.587,958.02"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719/transcript/30805/annotation/272","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"or I prefer the critical path.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719#t=958.98,960.89"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719/transcript/30805/annotation/273","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"Now, when you infer the stochastic elements","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719#t=960.89,964.43"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719/transcript/30805/annotation/274","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"what does the planner work with then?","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719#t=964.43,968.12"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719/transcript/30805/annotation/275","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"Does it work with a distribution of completion times?","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719#t=968.12,973.0"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719/transcript/30805/annotation/276","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"\u003cstrong\u003e -:\u003c/strong\u003e Exactly.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719#t=973.0,973.833"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719/transcript/30805/annotation/277","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"\u003cstrong\u003e -:\u003c/strong\u003e I failed to see how a critical path then","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719#t=975.88,979.41"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719/transcript/30805/annotation/278","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"could be worked out on a specific occasion","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719#t=979.41,982.82"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719/transcript/30805/annotation/279","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"if you don't have the information","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719#t=982.82,984.42"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719/transcript/30805/annotation/280","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"on how the pass had been completed on that particular day.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719#t=984.42,989.008"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719/transcript/30805/annotation/281","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"What good is the distributional information?","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719#t=989.008,992.64"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719/transcript/30805/annotation/282","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"\u003cstrong\u003e -:\u003c/strong\u003e There is no longer a critical path,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719#t=992.64,995.61"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719/transcript/30805/annotation/283","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"but as you rightly say,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719#t=995.61,997.513"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719/transcript/30805/annotation/284","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"we have programs for this written we can put.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719#t=998.49,1001.57"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719/transcript/30805/annotation/285","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"You have a network.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719#t=1001.57,1004.133"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719/transcript/30805/annotation/286","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"That's right, of a simple one.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719#t=1007.03,1008.693"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719/transcript/30805/annotation/287","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"There is a distribution","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719#t=1010.34,1014.17"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719/transcript/30805/annotation/288","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"for the completion times","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719#t=1014.17,1016.03"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719/transcript/30805/annotation/289","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"of each of these tasks.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719#t=1016.03,1018.21"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719/transcript/30805/annotation/290","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"This is a directed network.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719#t=1018.21,1020.733"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719/transcript/30805/annotation/291","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"And the computer program computes","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719#t=1024.099,1026.053"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719/transcript/30805/annotation/292","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"from those distribution, the complete distribution","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719#t=1026.053,1029.87"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719/transcript/30805/annotation/293","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"of completing the whole project","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719#t=1029.87,1033.7"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719/transcript/30805/annotation/294","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"to go from there, to there.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719#t=1033.7,1035.74"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719/transcript/30805/annotation/295","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"How does the planner use this?","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719#t=1035.74,1038.2"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719/transcript/30805/annotation/296","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"He may look at the expected value of this completion time,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719#t=1038.2,1042.53"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719/transcript/30805/annotation/297","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"he may look at the upper 95%.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719#t=1042.53,1045.66"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719/transcript/30805/annotation/298","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"That depends on his outlook.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719#t=1045.66,1048.45"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719/transcript/30805/annotation/299","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"But this statistical PERT","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719#t=1048.45,1052.12"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719/transcript/30805/annotation/300","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"produces for him the complete distribution","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719#t=1052.12,1056.32"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719/transcript/30805/annotation/301","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"of the completion times","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719#t=1056.32,1059.48"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719/transcript/30805/annotation/302","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"for networks that are very sizable.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719#t=1059.48,1062.853"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719/transcript/30805/annotation/303","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"This is not an easy distribution problem.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719#t=1063.96,1067.263"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719/transcript/30805/annotation/304","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"Monte Carlo has been used to solve this,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719#t=1069.74,1074.74"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719/transcript/30805/annotation/305","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"but we have a method","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719#t=1075.12,1076.74"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719/transcript/30805/annotation/306","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"of doing the job by numerical integration.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719#t=1076.74,1080.093"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719/transcript/30805/annotation/307","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"It's a fairly sophisticated program","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719#t=1082.462,1084.63"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719/transcript/30805/annotation/308","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"but there is no longer a critical path.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719#t=1084.63,1086.84"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719/transcript/30805/annotation/309","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"A critical path is defined","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719#t=1086.84,1089.03"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719/transcript/30805/annotation/310","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"when you have definite completion times.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719#t=1089.03,1091.99"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719/transcript/30805/annotation/311","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"And as you say,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719#t=1091.99,1093.17"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719/transcript/30805/annotation/312","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"it is the one that takes longest to complete,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719#t=1093.17,1096.27"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719/transcript/30805/annotation/313","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"to go from beginning to end.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719#t=1096.27,1097.72"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719/transcript/30805/annotation/314","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"That's the critical 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depends","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719#t=1103.21,1105.72"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719/transcript/30805/annotation/317","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"on the sample of completion times that you have to drawn.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719#t=1105.72,1110.24"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719/transcript/30805/annotation/318","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"So the critical path is now a statistic","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719#t=1110.24,1114.75"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719/transcript/30805/annotation/319","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"and has a distribution","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719#t=1116.38,1118.53"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719/transcript/30805/annotation/320","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"but this is a method","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719#t=1118.53,1122.3"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719/transcript/30805/annotation/321","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"that can be tackled by Monte Carlo.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719#t=1122.3,1125.26"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719/transcript/30805/annotation/322","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"But in for many, the more benign networks,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719#t=1125.26,1130.19"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719/transcript/30805/annotation/323","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"let me say,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719#t=1130.19,1131.22"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719/transcript/30805/annotation/324","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"we have a numerical integration algorithm","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719#t=1131.22,1134.11"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719/transcript/30805/annotation/325","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"to solve the distribution problem.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719#t=1134.11,1136.303"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719/transcript/30805/annotation/326","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"Takes a lot of computer time to do.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719#t=1139.62,1141.753"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719/transcript/30805/annotation/327","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"I don't know. Go ahead.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719#t=1145.24,1146.83"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719/transcript/30805/annotation/328","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"\u003cstrong\u003e -:\u003c/strong\u003e One of the things I didn't hear","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719#t=1146.83,1147.75"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719/transcript/30805/annotation/329","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"you mention in regard to computers was the speeding up,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719#t=1147.75,1152.75"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719/transcript/30805/annotation/330","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"the rate at which we can learn","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719#t=1152.82,1153.99"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719/transcript/30805/annotation/331","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"about behavioral relationships and analyzing data.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719#t=1153.99,1157.331"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719/transcript/30805/annotation/332","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"In particular the low marginal constant","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719#t=1157.331,1159.266"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719/transcript/30805/annotation/333","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"running edge of progression specifications model.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719#t=1159.266,1162.98"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719/transcript/30805/annotation/334","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"That speeds up the rate at which new knowledge","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719#t=1162.98,1166.13"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719/transcript/30805/annotation/335","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"can be generated about the equation at this time.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719#t=1166.13,1169.427"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719/transcript/30805/annotation/336","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"\u003cstrong\u003e -:\u003c/strong\u003e Well, I mentioned that the importance","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719#t=1170.8,1173.62"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719/transcript/30805/annotation/337","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"of having social scientists in the business","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719#t=1173.62,1177.81"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719/transcript/30805/annotation/338","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"of using computer in conjunction with data editing.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719#t=1177.81,1181.463"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719/transcript/30805/annotation/339","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"I did not want to 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sciences,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719#t=1187.97,1190.15"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719/transcript/30805/annotation/342","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"except that the data","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719#t=1190.15,1193.2"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719/transcript/30805/annotation/343","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"in the social research area","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719#t=1193.2,1195.92"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719/transcript/30805/annotation/344","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"could be edited again for us","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719#t=1195.92,1198.49"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719/transcript/30805/annotation/345","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"so that the output is more reliable","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719#t=1198.49,1201.35"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719/transcript/30805/annotation/346","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"for the social scientists to use.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719#t=1201.35,1204.53"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719/transcript/30805/annotation/347","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"Where the social scientist enters","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719#t=1204.53,1207.46"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719/transcript/30805/annotation/348","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"into the editing procedure is that he makes","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719#t=1207.46,1211.02"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719/transcript/30805/annotation/349","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"the very valuable suggestions","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719#t=1211.02,1215.05"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719/transcript/30805/annotation/350","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"as to what kind of errors do households make","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719#t=1215.05,1220.05"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719/transcript/30805/annotation/351","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"in responding about their characteristics.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719#t=1220.5,1224.81"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719/transcript/30805/annotation/352","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"What are frequently occurring?","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719#t=1224.81,1226.69"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719/transcript/30805/annotation/353","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"You have to know a lot about how","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719#t=1226.69,1229.71"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719/transcript/30805/annotation/354","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"the head of household responds,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719#t=1229.71,1232.0"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719/transcript/30805/annotation/355","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"how his wife responds,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719#t=1232.0,1233.5"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719/transcript/30805/annotation/356","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"how the children will respond","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719#t=1233.5,1235.83"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719/transcript/30805/annotation/357","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"to various types of questions","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719#t=1235.83,1237.35"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719/transcript/30805/annotation/358","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"before you can talk about any pattern","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719#t=1238.45,1243.24"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719/transcript/30805/annotation/359","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"in the responses that are likely","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719#t=1243.24,1245.837"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719/transcript/30805/annotation/360","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"and others that are unlikely.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719#t=1245.837,1248.03"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719/transcript/30805/annotation/361","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"I wouldn't like to guess this.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719#t=1248.03,1250.07"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719/transcript/30805/annotation/362","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"If you are a social scientist, maybe you can help.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719#t=1250.07,1253.16"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719/transcript/30805/annotation/363","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"\u003cstrong\u003e -:\u003c/strong\u003e No, but that's not what I'm getting at.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719#t=1253.16,1254.28"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719/transcript/30805/annotation/364","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"I'm saying that the marginal cost","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719#t=1254.28,1256.18"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719/transcript/30805/annotation/365","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"of running a new functional form,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719#t=1256.18,1257.72"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719/transcript/30805/annotation/366","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"say, a new model, looking at relationships","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719#t=1257.72,1261.35"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719/transcript/30805/annotation/367","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"going deep into independent variables and things like that.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719#t=1261.35,1263.75"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719/transcript/30805/annotation/368","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"\u003cstrong\u003e -:\u003c/strong\u003e Well, the last example you were really real concerned.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719#t=1263.75,1266.954"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719/transcript/30805/annotation/369","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"\u003cstrong\u003e -:\u003c/strong\u003e Yeah. I'm sorry.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719#t=1266.954,1268.537"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719/transcript/30805/annotation/370","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"But it's going to take you another year","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719#t=1269.95,1272.28"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719/transcript/30805/annotation/371","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"to invert a matrix in terms of running another regression","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719#t=1272.28,1275.64"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719/transcript/30805/annotation/372","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"you may not do it if you had to calculate it by hand.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719#t=1275.64,1278.98"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719/transcript/30805/annotation/373","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"But with high-speed computers,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719#t=1278.98,1280.483"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719/transcript/30805/annotation/374","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"you can run many specifications,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719#t=1281.614,1283.54"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719/transcript/30805/annotation/375","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"very low marginal costs and would seem to speed up","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719#t=1283.54,1285.91"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719/transcript/30805/annotation/376","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"the rate of advancing knowledge in these areas.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719#t=1285.91,1288.99"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719/transcript/30805/annotation/377","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"\u003cstrong\u003e -:\u003c/strong\u003e Well, supposing you have a learning process,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719#t=1288.99,1292.53"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719/transcript/30805/annotation/378","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"a model for a learning process in animal psychology, right?","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719#t=1292.53,1297.213"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719/transcript/30805/annotation/379","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"You set up a model for what are the factors","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719#t=1300.28,1305.17"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719/transcript/30805/annotation/380","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"that affect the frequency","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719#t=1305.17,1307.78"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719/transcript/30805/annotation/381","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"with which the animal has the right answer.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719#t=1307.78,1309.973"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719/transcript/30805/annotation/382","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"Goes to the right tape.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719#t=1311.24,1312.39"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719/transcript/30805/annotation/383","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"Now I'm sure that","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719#t=1314.49,1316.59"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719/transcript/30805/annotation/384","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"people start sensibly with very, very simple models.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719#t=1317.74,1320.783"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719/transcript/30805/annotation/385","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"Unfortunately, they find the observations","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719#t=1323.07,1326.84"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719/transcript/30805/annotation/386","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"do not bear out these simple models.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719#t=1326.84,1329.81"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719/transcript/30805/annotation/387","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"Now we rely on the ingenuity","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719#t=1329.81,1332.78"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719/transcript/30805/annotation/388","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"of the animal psychologist","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719#t=1332.78,1334.73"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719/transcript/30805/annotation/389","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"to suggest factors that the simple model had omitted.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719#t=1334.73,1338.693"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719/transcript/30805/annotation/390","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"As you bring in more and more and more of these,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719#t=1339.6,1344.11"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719/transcript/30805/annotation/391","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"you may find that the model is so complicated","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719#t=1344.11,1347.62"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719/transcript/30805/annotation/392","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"that there is no mathematical analytic solution to it.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719#t=1347.62,1350.953"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719/transcript/30805/annotation/393","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"But the computer can still solve it,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719#t=1350.953,1353.257"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719/transcript/30805/annotation/394","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"certainly in the case of a differential equation.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719#t=1353.257,1356.83"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719/transcript/30805/annotation/395","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"I don't know whether the learning process","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719#t=1356.83,1358.85"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719/transcript/30805/annotation/396","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"can survive by differential equations,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719#t=1358.85,1361.303"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719/transcript/30805/annotation/397","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"but here's an example.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719#t=1363.711,1365.177"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719/transcript/30805/annotation/398","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"Downgrade the computer","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719#t=1365.177,1366.597"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719/transcript/30805/annotation/399","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"and still do it for you numerically.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719#t=1366.597,1369.632"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719/transcript/30805/annotation/400","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"and numerical answers from the model is all you need","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719#t=1369.632,1373.451"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719/transcript/30805/annotation/401","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"to make a comparison to direct experimental efforts.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719#t=1373.451,1377.805"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719/transcript/30805/annotation/402","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"Therefore, analytic solution is no longer necessary","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719#t=1377.805,1382.055"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719/transcript/30805/annotation/403","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"and you do not need to restrict yourself","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719#t=1383.34,1387.93"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719/transcript/30805/annotation/404","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"to such mathematical models that can be solved analytically.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719#t=1387.93,1391.985"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719/transcript/30805/annotation/405","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"And I think it's a great boon.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719#t=1391.985,1393.493"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719/transcript/30805/annotation/406","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"\u003cstrong\u003e -:\u003c/strong\u003e A great boon, but with some dangers","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719#t=1395.78,1398.52"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719/transcript/30805/annotation/407","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"of just throwing in whatever occurs to you","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719#t=1398.52,1401.96"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719/transcript/30805/annotation/408","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"and it may be counter creative","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719#t=1401.96,1404.06"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719/transcript/30805/annotation/409","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"because they experimenter may not be sufficiently forced","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719#t=1404.06,1408.06"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719/transcript/30805/annotation/410","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"to think very hard about the processes involved","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719#t=1408.06,1411.7"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719/transcript/30805/annotation/411","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"and throws in any idea he has.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719#t=1411.7,1413.9"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719/transcript/30805/annotation/412","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"That's the danger of all this","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719#t=1413.9,1415.84"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719/transcript/30805/annotation/413","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"which of course can be minimized by careful experiment.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719#t=1415.84,1420.84"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719/transcript/30805/annotation/414","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"\u003cstrong\u003e -:\u003c/strong\u003e Yes, you are right.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719#t=1420.87,1422.677"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719/transcript/30805/annotation/415","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"throwing in too many very thoughtlessly,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719#t=1422.677,1426.24"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719/transcript/30805/annotation/416","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"which I couldn't be a judge if a scientist does to me.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719#t=1426.24,1430.31"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719/transcript/30805/annotation/417","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"However,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719#t=1430.31,1431.493"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719/transcript/30805/annotation/418","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"the characteristic that a model is analytically tractable","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719#t=1433.968,1438.968"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719/transcript/30805/annotation/419","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"is often completely unrelated.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719#t=1439.41,1442.35"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719/transcript/30805/annotation/420","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"In fact, negatively correlated","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719#t=1442.35,1444.64"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719/transcript/30805/annotation/421","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"to whether it is a good model or not.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719#t=1444.64,1446.741"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719/transcript/30805/annotation/422","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"(students chuckling)","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719#t=1446.741,1448.91"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719/transcript/30805/annotation/423","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"So in the past,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719#t=1448.91,1452.43"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719/transcript/30805/annotation/424","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"people have selected models","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719#t=1452.43,1454.62"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719/transcript/30805/annotation/425","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"that were analytically tractable.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719#t=1454.62,1456.327"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719/transcript/30805/annotation/426","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"And I think we get rid of that.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719#t=1457.18,1459.547"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719/transcript/30805/annotation/427","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"Now they may still be thoughtless,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719#t=1461.547,1463.473"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719/transcript/30805/annotation/428","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"like many things that are useless.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719#t=1464.55,1466.283"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719/transcript/30805/annotation/429","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"Other world has-","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719#t=1469.82,1471.277"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719/transcript/30805/annotation/430","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"\u003cstrong\u003e -:\u003c/strong\u003e Well, I think a physicist would hate you for saying this.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719#t=1471.277,1474.762"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719/transcript/30805/annotation/431","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"(students laughing)","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719#t=1474.762,1477.55"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719/transcript/30805/annotation/432","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"\u003cstrong\u003e -:\u003c/strong\u003e No, you can have a poet.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719#t=1477.55,1478.497"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719/transcript/30805/annotation/433","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"Beauty is truth, and truth beauty.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719#t=1478.497,1481.263"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719/transcript/30805/annotation/434","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"That's all you need to know.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719#t=1482.742,1484.268"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719/transcript/30805/annotation/435","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"(students laughing)","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719#t=1484.268,1486.961"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719/transcript/30805/annotation/436","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"And so this mathematical stuff is beautiful.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719#t=1486.961,1490.317"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719/transcript/30805/annotation/437","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"(students laughing)","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719#t=1492.601,1494.68"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719/transcript/30805/annotation/438","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"\u003cstrong\u003e -:\u003c/strong\u003e Perhaps the simple laws outlives their time, then.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719#t=1494.68,1497.503"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719/transcript/30805/annotation/439","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"\u003cstrong\u003e -:\u003c/strong\u003e No, I don't think so.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719#t=1499.64,1501.343"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719/transcript/30805/annotation/440","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"\u003cstrong\u003e -:\u003c/strong\u003e Obviously our approximation.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719#t=1502.804,1505.25"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719/transcript/30805/annotation/441","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"\u003cstrong\u003e -:\u003c/strong\u003e I like to remind you","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719#t=1505.25,1507.05"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719/transcript/30805/annotation/442","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"that in conjunction with the Monte Carlo,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719#t=1507.05,1511.9"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719/transcript/30805/annotation/443","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"I pointed out that the numerical solution to a problem","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719#t=1511.9,1516.9"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719/transcript/30805/annotation/444","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"that depends on a large number","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719#t=1516.97,1518.67"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719/transcript/30805/annotation/445","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"of parameters is really not adequate.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719#t=1518.67,1522.16"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719/transcript/30805/annotation/446","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"And you knew you need these analytic approximations","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719#t=1522.16,1526.24"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719/transcript/30805/annotation/447","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"to guide","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719#t=1526.24,1527.11"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719/transcript/30805/annotation/448","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"the numerical evaluation by Monte Carlo.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719#t=1528.55,1533.203"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719/transcript/30805/annotation/449","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"Same applies to solving differential equations numerically,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719#t=1534.11,1538.276"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719/transcript/30805/annotation/450","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"they depend on the large number of parameters.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719#t=1538.276,1540.81"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719/transcript/30805/annotation/451","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"Analytic solutions are the useful guidance","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719#t=1541.93,1546.21"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719/transcript/30805/annotation/452","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"as to what you should be doing.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719#t=1546.21,1548.09"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719/transcript/30805/annotation/453","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"They are sensible.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719#t=1548.09,1548.99"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719/transcript/30805/annotation/454","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"So I don't think one should do away with it.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719#t=1550.15,1553.553"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719/transcript/30805/annotation/455","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"I did not want to indicate","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719#t=1554.43,1557.14"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719/transcript/30805/annotation/456","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"that you should do away with them,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719#t=1557.14,1559.398"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719/transcript/30805/annotation/457","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"but I am very much in favor","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719#t=1559.398,1564.16"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719/transcript/30805/annotation/458","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"to let the subject matter area scientist","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719#t=1564.16,1567.56"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719/transcript/30805/annotation/459","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"really build the model on what he considers as important","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719#t=1568.55,1573.55"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719/transcript/30805/annotation/460","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"irrespective of whether things track","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719#t=1573.8,1576.43"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719/transcript/30805/annotation/461","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"mathematically tractable or not.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719#t=1576.43,1578.6"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719/transcript/30805/annotation/462","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"I think that is a boon.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719#t=1578.6,1580.72"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719/transcript/30805/annotation/463","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"Definitely.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719#t=1580.72,1581.553"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719/transcript/30805/annotation/464","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"\u003cstrong\u003e -:\u003c/strong\u003e If there aren't any other questions-","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719#t=1586.811,1588.387"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719/transcript/30805/annotation/465","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"\u003cstrong\u003e -:\u003c/strong\u003e There's one down there.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719#t=1588.387,1589.453"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719/transcript/30805/annotation/466","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"\u003cstrong\u003e -:\u003c/strong\u003e Oh there is, okay.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719#t=1589.453,1590.613"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719/transcript/30805/annotation/467","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"\u003cstrong\u003e -:\u003c/strong\u003e Just a comment.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719#t=1590.613,1591.96"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719/transcript/30805/annotation/468","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"A peculiar twist on what you're pointing out","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719#t=1591.96,1595.36"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719/transcript/30805/annotation/469","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"is that psychologists no longer try","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719#t=1595.36,1598.32"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719/transcript/30805/annotation/470","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"to empirically verify Markov learning models","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719#t=1598.32,1602.57"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719/transcript/30805/annotation/471","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"because the computer solving that many problems","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719#t=1603.646,1608.27"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719/transcript/30805/annotation/472","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"would estimated that in order to get a confidence interval","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719#t=1608.27,1611.877"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719/transcript/30805/annotation/473","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"for some of these transition probabilities,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719#t=1611.877,1614.92"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719/transcript/30805/annotation/474","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"they would have to run 50,000 rats for 50 years.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719#t=1614.92,1618.431"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719/transcript/30805/annotation/475","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"(students laughing)\nSo that a whole research area","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719#t=1618.431,1621.33"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719/transcript/30805/annotation/476","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"which is \"very productive\"","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719#t=1621.33,1623.283"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719/transcript/30805/annotation/477","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"got undermined and was completely abandoned","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719#t=1624.279,1627.461"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719/transcript/30805/annotation/478","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"in the middle of the 60s because of this.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719#t=1627.461,1630.879"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719/transcript/30805/annotation/479","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"\u003cstrong\u003e -:\u003c/strong\u003e Because of the large number of-","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719#t=1630.879,1634.464"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719/transcript/30805/annotation/480","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"\u003cstrong\u003e -:\u003c/strong\u003e Animals.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719#t=1634.464,1635.36"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719/transcript/30805/annotation/481","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"\u003cstrong\u003e -:\u003c/strong\u003e That are needed when you are dealing","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719#t=1635.36,1637.12"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719/transcript/30805/annotation/482","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"with more complex models?","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719#t=1637.12,1638.74"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719/transcript/30805/annotation/483","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"\u003cstrong\u003e -:\u003c/strong\u003e When they're dealing with Markov models.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719#t=1638.74,1639.85"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719/transcript/30805/annotation/484","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"\u003cstrong\u003e -:\u003c/strong\u003e Mark models.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719#t=1639.85,1641.23"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719/transcript/30805/annotation/485","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"\u003cstrong\u003e -:\u003c/strong\u003e The confidence interval for transition problems","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719#t=1641.23,1643.709"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719/transcript/30805/annotation/486","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"for some of these Markov models","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719#t=1643.709,1647.29"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719/transcript/30805/annotation/487","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"that were developed for explaining animal learning.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719#t=1647.29,1649.82"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719/transcript/30805/annotation/488","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"\u003cstrong\u003e -:\u003c/strong\u003e Leroy, as to your point,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719#t=1649.82,1651.49"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719/transcript/30805/annotation/489","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"I think I understand your point.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719#t=1651.49,1653.653"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719/transcript/30805/annotation/490","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"You say there is a difficulty about involved models.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719#t=1655.8,1660.39"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719/transcript/30805/annotation/491","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"Not just that they are possibly not analytically tractable,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719#t=1660.39,1664.35"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719/transcript/30805/annotation/492","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"but they are monitoring, their verification","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719#t=1664.35,1668.51"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719/transcript/30805/annotation/493","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"requires unacceptable experimental programs","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719#t=1668.51,1673.17"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719/transcript/30805/annotation/494","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"and you say that is a more important consideration","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719#t=1673.17,1677.09"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719/transcript/30805/annotation/495","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"than doing away with the-","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719#t=1677.09,1680.27"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719/transcript/30805/annotation/496","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"\u003cstrong\u003e -:\u003c/strong\u003e No, I'm saying that researchers have saved themselves","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719#t=1680.27,1684.09"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719/transcript/30805/annotation/497","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"a lot of time by the computer showing them","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719#t=1684.09,1688.63"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719/transcript/30805/annotation/498","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"that they could not possibly empirically support","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719#t=1688.63,1692.37"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719/transcript/30805/annotation/499","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"some of the theories they were advocating.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719#t=1692.37,1694.47"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719/transcript/30805/annotation/500","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"\u003cstrong\u003e -:\u003c/strong\u003e Oh yeah. I'm sorry.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719#t=1696.1,1697.81"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719/transcript/30805/annotation/501","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"This is another point.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719#t=1697.81,1699.21"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719/transcript/30805/annotation/502","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"You can use the computer to trace out a projection","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719#t=1699.21,1704.21"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719/transcript/30805/annotation/503","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"of a theory and show that a theory is unacceptable","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719#t=1704.42,1709.19"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719/transcript/30805/annotation/504","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"because the consequences are quite unacceptable","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719#t=1709.19,1711.95"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719/transcript/30805/annotation/505","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"without even","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719#t=1712.83,1714.16"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719/transcript/30805/annotation/506","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"\u003cstrong\u003e -:\u003c/strong\u003e invoking experiments.\nThe data used to support","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719#t=1715.15,1716.833"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719/transcript/30805/annotation/507","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"the theories, rats don't live that long.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719#t=1716.833,1719.962"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719/transcript/30805/annotation/508","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"(students laughing)","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719#t=1719.962,1722.962"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719/transcript/30805/annotation/509","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"\u003cstrong\u003e -:\u003c/strong\u003e In other words, you feel that the use of a computer","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719#t=1723.9,1728.1"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719/transcript/30805/annotation/510","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"that I failed to mention,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719#t=1728.1,1729.91"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719/transcript/30805/annotation/511","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"namely, that they often are able","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719#t=1729.91,1733.31"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719/transcript/30805/annotation/512","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"to reject unacceptable theories by pointing up","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719#t=1733.31,1738.31"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719/transcript/30805/annotation/513","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"the unacceptable consequences.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719#t=1738.95,1742.88"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719/transcript/30805/annotation/514","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"\u003cstrong\u003e -:\u003c/strong\u003e Yes.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719#t=1742.88,1743.81"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719/transcript/30805/annotation/515","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"\u003cstrong\u003e -:\u003c/strong\u003e I certainly didn't stress that enough.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719#t=1743.81,1746.41"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719/transcript/30805/annotation/516","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"That's a very good use of a computer also.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719#t=1746.41,1748.633"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719/transcript/30805/annotation/517","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"I think that has been done in this genetic models.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719#t=1750.0,1752.6"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719/transcript/30805/annotation/518","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"I believe there's certain models have been found.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719#t=1752.6,1757.017"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719/transcript/30805/annotation/519","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"Maybe Kegby knows more about that.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719#t=1758.7,1760.59"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719/transcript/30805/annotation/520","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"Some of his computer simulation of genetic processes","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719#t=1760.59,1764.52"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719/transcript/30805/annotation/521","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"have been implemented and found out","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719#t=1766.88,1769.28"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719/transcript/30805/annotation/522","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"to lead to completely unacceptable consequences","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719#t=1770.589,1774.81"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719/transcript/30805/annotation/523","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"in the third, fourth or fifth generation.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719#t=1774.81,1776.86"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719/transcript/30805/annotation/524","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"Without conducting an experiment","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719#t=1783.11,1785.74"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719/transcript/30805/annotation/525","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"that produces so many generations.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719#t=1785.74,1787.833"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719/transcript/30805/annotation/526","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"\u003cstrong\u003e -:\u003c/strong\u003e Any other questions for Dr. Harley?","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719#t=1790.0,1791.85"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719/transcript/30805/annotation/527","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"Let's give him another round of applause.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719#t=1793.97,1795.674"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719/transcript/30805/annotation/528","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"(students applauding)","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719#t=1795.674,1798.841"}]},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719/transcript/30805","type":"AnnotationPage","label":{"en":["English [Transcript]"]},"items":[{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719/transcript/30805/annotation/529","type":"Annotation","motivation":"subtitling","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"https://d9jk7wjtjpu5g.cloudfront.net/file_transcripts/associated_files/000/030/805/original/AV167908_Computers_and_Statistics_a.vtt?1626717888","format":"text/vtt","language":"en"},"target":"https://d9jk7wjtjpu5g.cloudfront.net/file_transcripts/associated_files/000/030/805/original/AV167908_Computers_and_Statistics_a.vtt?1626717888"}]},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719/transcript/30806","type":"AnnotationPage","label":{"en":["AV167908_Computers_and_Statistics_a.txt [Transcript]"]},"items":[{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719/transcript/30806/annotation/530","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"- There's an ever going wealth of mathematical models which are formulated and used to describe phenomena in the chemical and biochemical sciences. We must therefore confine ourselves here to a special case, namely, deterministic models to describe time response relationships. An important subclass of these are growth phenomena. Be it that they are concerned with the growth of a biological entity such as the weight or size of an animal, or as the growth of a concentration in a chemical reaction or others. Most of the mathematical models that are invoked describe growth or time of response in general as arising from differential equations. Let us describe how such an equation arises in a very simple example here. Here then, we have an example of a response which I have denoted by the concentration and the time at which the process is running. We first assume a model that is an idealized theory for the differential growths, say this concentration of a particular chemical in a reaction. Y sub T denotes the concentration of this chemical at time T. Y sub T. And we may in certain cases make the following assumptions: we assume that the concentration will eventually reach a stable level. Capital Y. It will grow in this case to a stable level beyond which it cannot grow. Assumption number one. Assumption, number two: at any time of this growth development of the concentration, the differential increase that is the slope of the growth curve is proportional to the, what I call, dilution. That is the difference between the concentration reached and the final maximum concentration. So the slope is proportional to the distance from the asymptotic line. Expressing these assumption in mathematical terms, we obtain the differential equation here. Growth rate divide the T, proportional to the distance between Y, that is this level, and the growth, the concentration which at time T. C times dilution. Very simple, the solution of this differential equation is this very simple, exponential law. When T is zero, the exponential is one. Y cancels and we have Y sub naught the initial concentration. And T tends to infinity. This term is zero and we approach the final concentration, capital Y. This is the exponential growth curve. Sometimes in a agronomy referred to as Mitscherlich's Law. You need a towel to pronounce Mitscherlich . Write it down. At this stage is you may have to have two remarks. You may rightly consider the assumptions about the differential growth rate a gross oversimplification and possibly inapplicable. Secondly, you will may wonder why a high speed computer is needed to evaluate the resulting growth curve in their simple form here. There's a close relation between the answers to these two questions. A more realistic formulation of a model for differential growth of these concentrations will usually involve not just one variable as that single concentration but simultaneous measurements on different facets of the process. For example, in describing a complex chemical reaction the gross in the constant patient of each particular chemical involved, a particular chemical component will in turn depend on the concentrations of the other components, on temperature and many other variables, which should all be entered into the model equations. Into these equations. Such a model will then involve sometimes as many as 30 to 50 or even more variables differential equations for their respective growth rates in place of a single equation too. The single equation here. Moreover, the simple assumption that the effect on the growth rates of all of these concentrations is given by linear relationship is often regarded as unacceptable. When we now phase the math, so I like to display a more general model. Here, it is. This is a vector of concentrations. Divide the T, is therefore a vector of growth rate differential equal to effect vector function F and that vector function depends nonlinearly on all the elements of the vector Y and also an unknown parameters, possibly theta. So this is law that you be model that you more realistically should be formulating. When we now face the mathematician and ask him to solve the equations for our more realistic model, he will no longer be able to do this by a mathematical analysis. The system of nonlinear differential equations. It's lucky if you can do it. This means you will no longer be able to produce an equivalent to the simple equation that we had here expressing the answer for the vector Y as a simple function of the time T. No longer possible. However, high speed computer can still solve a complicated system of differential equations numerically or graphically, and could produce the equivalent to the growth curve. Numerical answers can still be produced directly from the differential equations without having the mathematical solution. To the chemist or to the computer expert. This task is known under the name of solving a system of ordinary first order nonlinear differential equations which can be easily done on the computer. You probably know of computer programs that will do that. To the chemist or biochemist, this means that he is now much freer to formulate his model that is his theory and formulated it more realistically for he does no longer rely on whether or not the mathematician can provide the solution in the form of mathematical equations. He can now incorporate in his model for differential growths all relevant components and all variables he deems incorporating. He can experiment with the variables he wants to include. He can experiment with the model form in which the various variables affect the differential growth of any of the variables. He can follow up certain hunches, discarding theories which do not tally with observations and improving promising theories by putting them to a more searching test. And here I'd like to intersperse. If Z differential equations dependent on a set of unknown parameters, theta, a vector of parameters, you can still fit these solutions to the differential equations by at least squares. Observe vectors of observations, capital Y can be fitted by least squares, minimizing the familiar least square forms in nonlinearly least square estimation theory. All operations that are known in this technique that are based on an analytic knowledge of the solution for your model can be simulated numerically by using numerical solutions to the differential equation including differential changes in the parameters. If they are needed, the so-called method of solving the system of differential equation by perturbation is extremely serviceable. For example, the modified Gauss-Newton method of solving nonlinear least squares problem can immediately be done even if you don't know the non linear form of the solution of differential equations. There is, as many of you will know, essentially nothing new in this application of high speed computer. Possibly this last remark is, indeed, it has been used in many areas of research. To name only a few, the study of enzyme reactions, the development of a theory of nerve circuits and responses, explorations of the responses in the output of chemical plants to systematic changes in controllable factors. The future will produce bigger and better computers. And with their aid, we can be both bolder and at the same time, more realistic. Yes, both bolder and more realistic in the formulation of our theories for we have a tool which will evaluate for us accurately and timely the consequences of a great variety of theories and thereby provide most valuable pointers to the ingenuity of the scientist. Thank you.\r\n\r\n- Thank you, Dr. Harley. Are there any questions anybody from the audience would like to ask? Yes?\r\n\r\n- Somebody's got to trigger this process. I'm wondering whether you really weren't making the case against the difficulty of Monte Carlo rather stronger than it should be in doing this common final result. At least in the statistical inference game, one really doesn't need to know the distributions so well, you know? My view on this is that it's on here if you wanted to use as our method of testing and the principle of optimality is the rather good one. I liked that one. The hell with everybody else. Probably good principal of optimality providing one isn't being stupid. Then I want to know how this thing is distributed, and so I'm interested in the dragging the upper tail a bit. You know, my advice is I'll just run off a couple of hundred samples, two hundred. That'll give you some sort of halfway decent idea of what the tail is and that's good enough for your purposes, probably. Okay? You have any reaction?\r\n\r\n- I think you are right with regard to this. I think this discussion of the 10 to the minus five times 10 to the minus for three accurate decimals was more addressed to the people who want to use Monte Carlo methods for computing tables of functions that are analytically not tractable. If you want to produce a table of a distribution criteria, let us say biometrical tables for statisticians, you would blame us unless we have something like three accurate decimals. But I think you're absolutely right. If you just want to investigate a new criterion, you may well be satisfied with a much lower accuracy.\r\n\r\n- Yes?\r\n\r\n- I'm hoping your allusion towards stochastic PERT, I don't know at about it but I've been on the fringes of it and curious about how the stochastic element really is introduced in that type of thing. Now, the standard non-stochastic network analysis assumes certain known times for task completion and then figures out the best route from the network 'til they boost who needs to wait for what or I prefer the critical path. Now, when you infer the stochastic elements what does the planner work with then? Does it work with a distribution of completion times?\r\n\r\n- Exactly.\r\n\r\n- I failed to see how a critical path then could be worked out on a specific occasion if you don't have the information on how the pass had been completed on that particular day. What good is the distributional information?\r\n\r\n- There is no longer a critical path, but as you rightly say, we have programs for this written we can put. You have a network. That's right, of a simple one. There is a distribution for the completion times of each of these tasks. This is a directed network. And the computer program computes from those distribution, the complete distribution of completing the whole project to go from there, to there. How does the planner use this? He may look at the expected value of this completion time, he may look at the upper 95%. That depends on his outlook. But this statistical PERT produces for him the complete distribution of the completion times for networks that are very sizable. This is not an easy distribution problem. Monte Carlo has been used to solve this, but we have a method of doing the job by numerical integration. It's a fairly sophisticated program but there is no longer a critical path. A critical path is defined when you have definite completion times. And as you say, it is the one that takes longest to complete, to go from beginning to end. That's the critical path. This will no longer be applying because what is the critical path depends on the sample of completion times that you have to drawn. So the critical path is now a statistic and has a distribution but this is a method that can be tackled by Monte Carlo. But in for many, the more benign networks, let me say, we have a numerical integration algorithm to solve the distribution problem. Takes a lot of computer time to do. I don't know. Go ahead.\r\n\r\n- One of the things I didn't hear you mention in regard to computers was the speeding up, the rate at which we can learn about behavioral relationships and analyzing data. In particular the low marginal constant running edge of progression specifications model. That speeds up the rate at which new knowledge can be generated about the equation at this time.\r\n\r\n- Well, I mentioned that the importance of having social scientists in the business of using computer in conjunction with data editing. I did not want to imply that this activity would increase the knowledge of the social sciences, except that the data in the social research area could be edited again for us so that the output is more reliable for the social scientists to use. Where the social scientist enters into the editing procedure is that he makes the very valuable suggestions as to what kind of errors do households make in responding about their characteristics. What are frequently occurring? You have to know a lot about how the head of household responds, how his wife responds, how the children will respond to various types of questions before you can talk about any pattern in the responses that are likely and others that are unlikely. I wouldn't like to guess this. If you are a social scientist, maybe you can help.\r\n\r\n- No, but that's not what I'm getting at. I'm saying that the marginal cost of running a new functional form, say, a new model, looking at relationships going deep into independent variables and things like that.\r\n\r\n- Well, the last example you were really real concerned.\r\n\r\n- Yeah. I'm sorry. But it's going to take you another year to invert a matrix in terms of running another regression you may not do it if you had to calculate it by hand. But with high-speed computers, you can run many specifications, very low marginal costs and would seem to speed up the rate of advancing knowledge in these areas.\r\n\r\n- Well, supposing you have a learning process, a model for a learning process in animal psychology, right? You set up a model for what are the factors that affect the frequency with which the animal has the right answer. Goes to the right tape. Now I'm sure that people start sensibly with very, very simple models. Unfortunately, they find the observations do not bear out these simple models. Now we rely on the ingenuity of the animal psychologist to suggest factors that the simple model had omitted. As you bring in more and more and more of these, you may find that the model is so complicated that there is no mathematical analytic solution to it. But the computer can still solve it, certainly in the case of a differential equation. I don't know whether the learning process can survive by differential equations, but here's an example. Downgrade the computer and still do it for you numerically. and numerical answers from the model is all you need to make a comparison to direct experimental efforts. Therefore, analytic solution is no longer necessary and you do not need to restrict yourself to such mathematical models that can be solved analytically. And I think it's a great boon.\r\n\r\n- A great boon, but with some dangers of just throwing in whatever occurs to you and it may be counter creative because they experimenter may not be sufficiently forced to think very hard about the processes involved and throws in any idea he has. That's the danger of all this which of course can be minimized by careful experiment.\r\n\r\n- Yes, you are right. throwing in too many very thoughtlessly, which I couldn't be a judge if a scientist does to me. However, the characteristic that a model is analytically tractable is often completely unrelated. In fact, negatively correlated to whether it is a good model or not. So in the past, people have selected models that were analytically tractable. And I think we get rid of that. Now they may still be thoughtless, like many things that are useless. Other world has-\r\n\r\n- Well, I think a physicist would hate you for saying this.\r\n\r\n- No, you can have a poet. Beauty is truth, and truth beauty. That's all you need to know. And so this mathematical stuff is beautiful.\r\n\r\n- Perhaps the simple laws outlives their time, then.\r\n\r\n- No, I don't think so.\r\n\r\n- Obviously our approximation.\r\n\r\n- I like to remind you that in conjunction with the Monte Carlo, I pointed out that the numerical solution to a problem that depends on a large number of parameters is really not adequate. And you knew you need these analytic approximations to guide the numerical evaluation by Monte Carlo. Same applies to solving differential equations numerically, they depend on the large number of parameters. Analytic solutions are the useful guidance as to what you should be doing. They are sensible. So I don't think one should do away with it. I did not want to indicate that you should do away with them, but I am very much in favor to let the subject matter area scientist really build the model on what he considers as important irrespective of whether things track mathematically tractable or not. I think that is a boon. Definitely.\r\n\r\n- If there aren't any other questions-\r\n\r\n- There's one down there.\r\n\r\n- Oh there is, okay.\r\n\r\n- Just a comment. A peculiar twist on what you're pointing out is that psychologists no longer try to empirically verify Markov learning models because the computer solving that many problems would estimated that in order to get a confidence interval for some of these transition probabilities, they would have to run 50,000 rats for 50 years. So that a whole research area which is \"very productive\" got undermined and was completely abandoned in the middle of the 60s because of this.\r\n\r\n- Because of the large number of-\r\n\r\n- Animals.\r\n\r\n- That are needed when you are dealing with more complex models?\r\n\r\n- When they're dealing with Markov models.\r\n\r\n- Mark models.\r\n\r\n- The confidence interval for transition problems for some of these Markov models that were developed for explaining animal learning.\r\n\r\n- Leroy, as to your point, I think I understand your point. You say there is a difficulty about involved models. Not just that they are possibly not analytically tractable, but they are monitoring, their verification requires unacceptable experimental programs and you say that is a more important consideration than doing away with the-\r\n\r\n- No, I'm saying that researchers have saved themselves a lot of time by the computer showing them that they could not possibly empirically support some of the theories they were advocating.\r\n\r\n- Oh yeah. I'm sorry. This is another point. You can use the computer to trace out a projection of a theory and show that a theory is unacceptable because the consequences are quite unacceptable without even invoking experiments.\r\n\r\n- The data used to support the theories, rats don't live that long.\r\n\r\n- In other words, you feel that the use of a computer that I failed to mention, namely, that they often are able to reject unacceptable theories by pointing up the unacceptable consequences.\r\n\r\n- Yes.\r\n\r\n- I certainly didn't stress that enough. That's a very good use of a computer also. I think that has been done in this genetic models. I believe there's certain models have been found. Maybe Kegby knows more about that. Some of his computer simulation of genetic processes have been implemented and found out to lead to completely unacceptable consequences in the third, fourth or fifth generation. Without conducting an experiment that produces so many generations.\r\n\r\n- Any other questions for Dr. Harley? Let's give him another round of applause.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119719#t=0.0,1832.28"}]}]},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119720","type":"Canvas","label":{"en":["Media File 2 of 2 - AV167908_Computers_and_Statistics_b.mp3"]},"duration":3438.984,"width":640,"height":40,"thumbnail":[{"id":"https://d9jk7wjtjpu5g.cloudfront.net/collection_resource_files/thumbnails/000/119/720/small/lecture.png?1626717890","type":"Image","format":"image/png"}],"items":[{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119720/content/1","type":"AnnotationPage","items":[{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119720/content/2/annotation/1","type":"Annotation","motivation":"painting","body":{"id":"https://aviary-p-iastate.s3.wasabisys.com/collection_resource_files/resource_files/000/119/720/original/AV167908_Computers_and_Statistics_b.mp3?1626717890","type":"Audio","format":"audio/mpeg","duration":3438.984,"width":640,"height":40},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119720","metadata":[]}]}],"annotations":[{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119720/transcript/30807","type":"AnnotationPage","label":{"en":["AV167908_Computers_and_Statistics_b.vtt [Transcript]"]},"items":[{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119720/transcript/30807/annotation/1","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"\u003cstrong\u003e -:\u003c/strong\u003e I'm very pleased to introduce tonight,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119720#t=26.9,29.03"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119720/transcript/30807/annotation/2","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"Dr. H.O. Hartley,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119720#t=29.03,30.543"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119720/transcript/30807/annotation/3","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"who's gonna speak on","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119720#t=31.55,33.18"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119720/transcript/30807/annotation/4","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"The Role of Computers in Statistical Research.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119720#t=33.18,37.15"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119720/transcript/30807/annotation/5","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"And those of you, who know nothing about him","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119720#t=37.15,41.54"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119720/transcript/30807/annotation/6","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"I can give you some of his fantastic credentials.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119720#t=41.54,45.17"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119720/transcript/30807/annotation/7","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"He has three doctor's degrees.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119720#t=45.17,47.12"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119720/transcript/30807/annotation/8","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"First one was earned in Math in Berlin University.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119720#t=47.12,50.52"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119720/transcript/30807/annotation/9","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"Second one in Mathematical Statistics at Cambridge","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119720#t=50.52,53.53"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119720/transcript/30807/annotation/10","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"and a third Doctor of Science degree in Math Statistics,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119720#t=53.53,56.04"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119720/transcript/30807/annotation/11","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"in the University of London.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119720#t=56.04,57.443"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119720/transcript/30807/annotation/12","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"He is a fellow of the Institute of Mathematical Statistics","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119720#t=58.92,62.07"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119720/transcript/30807/annotation/13","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"a fellow of the American Statistical Association,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119720#t=62.07,64.86"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119720/transcript/30807/annotation/14","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"a member of the International Statistical Institute,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119720#t=64.86,67.75"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119720/transcript/30807/annotation/15","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"fellow of the Texas Academy of Science","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119720#t=67.75,70.24"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119720/transcript/30807/annotation/16","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"and a fellow of the American Society for Quality Control.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119720#t=70.24,73.8"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119720/transcript/30807/annotation/17","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"In 1973 here in the Samuel Wilks Memorial Award","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119720#t=73.8,77.89"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119720/transcript/30807/annotation/18","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"in Statistics.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119720#t=77.89,78.883"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119720/transcript/30807/annotation/19","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"Currently he is Professor of Economics","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119720#t=80.01,82.16"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119720/transcript/30807/annotation/20","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"and Distinguished Professor of Statistics","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119720#t=82.16,84.46"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119720/transcript/30807/annotation/21","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"and he is Director of the Institute of Statistics","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119720#t=84.46,86.44"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119720/transcript/30807/annotation/22","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"at Texas A\u0026amp;M University.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119720#t=86.44,88.54"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119720/transcript/30807/annotation/23","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"He was in the faculty here from 1953 to 1963.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119720#t=88.54,92.723"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119720/transcript/30807/annotation/24","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"With that I'd like to introduce Dr. Hartley","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119720#t=94.09,96.53"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119720/transcript/30807/annotation/25","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"\u003cstrong\u003e -:\u003c/strong\u003e Thank you, Becky.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119720#t=99.098,104.098"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119720/transcript/30807/annotation/26","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"Thank you Becky for this very nice introduction.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119720#t=104.697,108.66"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119720/transcript/30807/annotation/27","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"As you have heard,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119720#t=108.66,109.913"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119720/transcript/30807/annotation/28","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"you can hardly see me","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119720#t=111.28,113.77"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119720/transcript/30807/annotation/29","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"but, I'd like you to hear me.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119720#t=114.61,117.03"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119720/transcript/30807/annotation/30","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"So if you will move forward","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119720#t=117.03,119.06"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119720/transcript/30807/annotation/31","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"I talk quite an awful lot today.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119720#t=119.06,121.94"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119720/transcript/30807/annotation/32","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"So,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119720#t=121.94,122.773"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119720/transcript/30807/annotation/33","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"it is an all, it's a very nice pleasure and a great honor","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119720#t=125.48,129.34"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119720/transcript/30807/annotation/34","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"to have been invited","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119720#t=130.35,132.76"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119720/transcript/30807/annotation/35","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"by the","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119720#t=132.76,135.13"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119720/transcript/30807/annotation/36","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"Society, Mu Sigma Rho,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119720#t=135.13,137.647"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119720/transcript/30807/annotation/37","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"to come and talk to you","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119720#t=138.54,140.57"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119720/transcript/30807/annotation/38","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"on the Iowa State Campus.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119720#t=142.894,145.29"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119720/transcript/30807/annotation/39","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"As I have said this afternoon,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119720#t=145.29,148.163"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119720/transcript/30807/annotation/40","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"this is like coming back","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119720#t=149.31,152.43"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119720/transcript/30807/annotation/41","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"home.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119720#t=152.43,153.63"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119720/transcript/30807/annotation/42","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"Because I have been on the faculty of Iowa state","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119720#t=153.63,158.43"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119720/transcript/30807/annotation/43","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"for 10 years.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119720#t=158.43,160.1"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119720/transcript/30807/annotation/44","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"And I am seeing a lot of familiar faces 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Simulation,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119720#t=1935.81,1938.94"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119720/transcript/30807/annotation/551","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"but I will first confine myself","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119720#t=1938.94,1941.281"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119720/transcript/30807/annotation/552","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"to the particular application of Monte 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problem.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119720#t=2183.53,2186.003"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119720/transcript/30807/annotation/625","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"Now of course,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119720#t=2187.21,2188.753"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119720/transcript/30807/annotation/626","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"before the high-speed computers","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119720#t=2190.357,2191.893"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119720/transcript/30807/annotation/627","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"were in the picture, this computation,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119720#t=2191.893,2195.893"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119720/transcript/30807/annotation/628","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"this integration","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119720#t=2196.94,2200.03"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119720/transcript/30807/annotation/629","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"was performed analytically","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119720#t=2200.03,2202.25"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119720/transcript/30807/annotation/630","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"or in certain cases by numerically integration methods.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119720#t=2203.087,2207.18"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119720/transcript/30807/annotation/631","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"But neither of these methods sometimes","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119720#t=2208.12,2212.69"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119720/transcript/30807/annotation/632","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"gives a practical solution to the problem.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119720#t=2212.69,2217.04"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119720/transcript/30807/annotation/633","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"So we have to rely on the","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119720#t=2217.04,2219.93"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119720/transcript/30807/annotation/634","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"always available","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119720#t=2219.93,2222.54"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119720/transcript/30807/annotation/635","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"Monte Carlo method,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119720#t=2224.01,2226.0"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119720/transcript/30807/annotation/636","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"which goes back to the concept of basic sampling","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119720#t=2226.0,2231.0"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119720/transcript/30807/annotation/637","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"and produces the CDF of this statistic","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119720#t=2231.15,2235.96"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119720/transcript/30807/annotation/638","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"from first principles.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119720#t=2235.96,2237.423"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119720/transcript/30807/annotation/639","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"Say, well,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119720#t=2238.44,2240.233"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119720/transcript/30807/annotation/640","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"why didn't we always do this?","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119720#t=2242.11,2245.323"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119720/transcript/30807/annotation/641","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"Let us first say then,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119720#t=2247.26,2249.13"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119720/transcript/30807/annotation/642","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"it is clear from the description of Monte Carlo procedures","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119720#t=2249.13,2253.65"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119720/transcript/30807/annotation/643","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"that I've given, that the principal steps of computing","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119720#t=2253.65,2258.18"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119720/transcript/30807/annotation/644","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"estimates of frequency distributions for the statistic H,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119720#t=2258.18,2262.253"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119720/transcript/30807/annotation/645","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"consists of two steps,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119720#t=2263.19,2266.13"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119720/transcript/30807/annotation/646","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"namely,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119720#t=2266.13,2267.57"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119720/transcript/30807/annotation/647","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"the generation of the samples Xi,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119720#t=2267.57,2270.273"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119720/transcript/30807/annotation/648","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"and then the computation","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119720#t=2273.41,2276.26"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119720/transcript/30807/annotation/649","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"of the function of the Xi,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119720#t=2276.26,2278.957"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119720/transcript/30807/annotation/650","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"and then the","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119720#t=2279.82,2282.18"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119720/transcript/30807/annotation/651","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"frequency computation","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119720#t=2282.18,2283.95"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119720/transcript/30807/annotation/652","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"of the frequency distribution.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119720#t=2283.95,2285.84"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119720/transcript/30807/annotation/653","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"These are the simple numerical steps","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119720#t=2285.84,2289.13"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119720/transcript/30807/annotation/654","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"And I will very briefly","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119720#t=2289.13,2292.81"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119720/transcript/30807/annotation/655","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"describe the first of these steps,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119720#t=2292.81,2295.67"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119720/transcript/30807/annotation/656","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"namely, the computation","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119720#t=2295.67,2298.9"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119720/transcript/30807/annotation/657","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"of a random sample","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119720#t=2298.9,2300.92"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119720/transcript/30807/annotation/658","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"Xi,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119720#t=2300.92,2302.37"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119720/transcript/30807/annotation/659","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"from a specified distribution, such as normal.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119720#t=2302.37,2306.63"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119720/transcript/30807/annotation/660","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"Well-known procedure is,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119720#t=2306.63,2309.86"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119720/transcript/30807/annotation/661","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"to generate in the computer,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119720#t=2309.86,2312.71"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119720/transcript/30807/annotation/662","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"so-called uniform variables.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119720#t=2312.71,2316.6"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119720/transcript/30807/annotation/663","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"By general, that is variables that have an equal probability","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119720#t=2316.6,2321.41"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119720/transcript/30807/annotation/664","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"to be distributed between this value zero and one,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119720#t=2321.41,2326.22"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119720/transcript/30807/annotation/665","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"which I have called here Ui.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119720#t=2326.22,2329.34"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119720/transcript/30807/annotation/666","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"How are those generated?","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119720#t=2329.34,2331.85"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119720/transcript/30807/annotation/667","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"The computer is asked to generate random digits,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119720#t=2331.85,2336.33"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119720/transcript/30807/annotation/668","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"such as this, say five of them.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119720#t=2336.33,2339.28"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119720/transcript/30807/annotation/669","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"And then it interprets these random digits","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119720#t=2339.28,2342.73"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119720/transcript/30807/annotation/670","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"as a decimal fraction.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119720#t=2342.73,2345.05"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119720/transcript/30807/annotation/671","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"Random digit means all digits,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119720#t=2345.05,2347.68"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119720/transcript/30807/annotation/672","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"not one up to nine, that have an equal probability","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119720#t=2347.68,2352.08"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119720/transcript/30807/annotation/673","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"to be generated.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119720#t=2352.08,2353.16"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119720/transcript/30807/annotation/674","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"There are many computer programs that do this.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119720#t=2353.16,2356.83"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119720/transcript/30807/annotation/675","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"You interpret the random digits.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119720#t=2356.83,2360.07"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119720/transcript/30807/annotation/676","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"So assemble as a decimal quantity,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119720#t=2360.07,2363.593"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119720/transcript/30807/annotation/677","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"that is got an equal chance to lie between North and one,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119720#t=2363.593,2368.15"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119720/transcript/30807/annotation/678","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"let's say we get this one.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119720#t=2368.15,2370.14"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119720/transcript/30807/annotation/679","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"And then you enter a table of the inverse of the CDF","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119720#t=2370.14,2374.87"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119720/transcript/30807/annotation/680","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"of the parental distribution from which you want to","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119720#t=2374.87,2379.27"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119720/transcript/30807/annotation/681","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"generate","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119720#t=2379.27,2380.75"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119720/transcript/30807/annotation/682","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"a normal,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119720#t=2380.75,2382.13"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119720/transcript/30807/annotation/683","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"for which you want generate random variables","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119720#t=2382.13,2386.17"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119720/transcript/30807/annotation/684","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"and you get your Xi.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119720#t=2386.17,2387.79"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119720/transcript/30807/annotation/685","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"So Xi is the inverse of the CDF","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119720#t=2387.79,2391.29"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119720/transcript/30807/annotation/686","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"with the Ui","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119720#t=2391.29,2393.07"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119720/transcript/30807/annotation/687","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"uniform variable substitute.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119720#t=2393.07,2396.41"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119720/transcript/30807/annotation/688","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"This is a favorite method 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computer.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119720#t=2402.73,2405.5"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119720/transcript/30807/annotation/691","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"Of course,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119720#t=2405.5,2406.773"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119720/transcript/30807/annotation/692","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"in the case of a normal, what are 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normal,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119720#t=2415.931,2417.43"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119720/transcript/30807/annotation/695","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"inverse of the normal intercourse.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119720#t=2417.43,2419.67"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119720/transcript/30807/annotation/696","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"And we would have to have a support team","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119720#t=2419.67,2423.1"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119720/transcript/30807/annotation/697","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"generating these percentage points.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119720#t=2423.1,2426.18"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119720/transcript/30807/annotation/698","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"So this is really the only thing that you have to 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are","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119720#t=2477.84,2482.45"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119720/transcript/30807/annotation/714","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"of adequate accuracy.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119720#t=2482.45,2484.423"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119720/transcript/30807/annotation/715","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"As is well known, very large number of capital N,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119720#t=2485.76,2490.76"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119720/transcript/30807/annotation/716","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"that's not the sample size, but number of samples.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119720#t=2490.9,2495.59"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119720/transcript/30807/annotation/717","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"The number of times you have to compute 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H","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119720#t=2504.31,2509.107"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119720/transcript/30807/annotation/720","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"provide even moderately accurate estimates","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119720#t=2510.05,2513.897"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119720/transcript/30807/annotation/721","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"of its cumulative probability 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simulation,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119720#t=3064.62,3066.963"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119720/transcript/30807/annotation/892","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"technique of simulation.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119720#t=3068.34,3070.89"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119720/transcript/30807/annotation/893","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"Most of you are undoubtedly more 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example,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119720#t=3085.57,3088.22"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119720/transcript/30807/annotation/898","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"really I have no time for the second.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119720#t=3088.22,3090.07"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119720/transcript/30807/annotation/899","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"The example that I want to discuss is the 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thing","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119720#t=3237.27,3240.17"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119720/transcript/30807/annotation/944","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"that should be carried out.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119720#t=3240.17,3242.22"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119720/transcript/30807/annotation/945","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"Only a very extensive 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up","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119720#t=3249.792,3252.01"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119720/transcript/30807/annotation/948","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"to use the model","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119720#t=3252.01,3254.27"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119720/transcript/30807/annotation/949","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"for optimization of the 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output.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119720#t=3267.61,3270.533"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119720/transcript/30807/annotation/954","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"Unless the model has been validated","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119720#t=3272.02,3276.08"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119720/transcript/30807/annotation/955","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"it is garbage in garbage out.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119720#t=3276.08,3279.093"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119720/transcript/30807/annotation/956","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"And this is a very important","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119720#t=3280.81,3284.15"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119720/transcript/30807/annotation/957","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"part of the process that is unfortunately often 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way","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119720#t=3298.24,3302.86"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119720/transcript/30807/annotation/962","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"increase the output and so forth.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119720#t=3302.86,3305.48"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119720/transcript/30807/annotation/963","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"And the optimization in this case is done, in 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case.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119720#t=3319.95,3322.41"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119720/transcript/30807/annotation/968","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"This is the last stage,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119720#t=3322.41,3325.21"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119720/transcript/30807/annotation/969","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"after the model has been validated,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119720#t=3325.21,3328.79"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119720/transcript/30807/annotation/970","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"can you optimize?","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119720#t=3328.79,3330.623"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119720/transcript/30807/annotation/971","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"It says the operational research analog","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119720#t=3331.7,3336.05"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119720/transcript/30807/annotation/972","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"to Monte Carlo calculations.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119720#t=3336.05,3339.313"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119720/transcript/30807/annotation/973","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"Now I come to my last 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building","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119720#t=3367.1,3369.27"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119720/transcript/30807/annotation/980","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"the process of building mathematical models.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119720#t=3369.27,3372.143"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119720/transcript/30807/annotation/981","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"Perhaps the most significant impact of computers","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119720#t=3373.25,3376.38"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119720/transcript/30807/annotation/982","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"is in this area.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119720#t=3376.38,3377.593"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119720/transcript/30807/annotation/983","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"Classical analysis","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119720#t=3378.52,3380.69"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119720/transcript/30807/annotation/984","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"used to insist on use of mathematical models,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119720#t=3380.69,3385.233"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119720/transcript/30807/annotation/985","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"for which, compact mathematical solutions","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119720#t=3386.341,3390.47"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119720/transcript/30807/annotation/986","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"could be found.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119720#t=3390.47,3391.303"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119720/transcript/30807/annotation/987","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"This generated a tendency on the part of the analysts","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119720#t=3392.73,3397.73"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119720/transcript/30807/annotation/988","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"to restate their studies","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119720#t=3398.0,3400.34"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119720/transcript/30807/annotation/989","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"to such","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119720#t=3400.34,3401.25"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119720/transcript/30807/annotation/990","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"mathematically tractable models.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119720#t=3402.36,3406.09"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119720/transcript/30807/annotation/991","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"Even at the expense","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119720#t=3406.09,3408.86"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119720/transcript/30807/annotation/992","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"of oversimplifying them","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119720#t=3408.86,3411.28"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119720/transcript/30807/annotation/993","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"in an unrealistic manner.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119720#t=3411.28,3413.853"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119720/transcript/30807/annotation/994","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"Let me describe these concepts","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119720#t=3414.75,3418.21"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119720/transcript/30807/annotation/995","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"first,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119720#t=3418.21,3419.22"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119720/transcript/30807/annotation/996","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"in terms of an exam,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119720#t=3419.22,3421.81"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119720/transcript/30807/annotation/997","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"set of examples,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119720#t=3421.81,3423.9"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119720/transcript/30807/annotation/998","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"and these examples","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119720#t=3423.9,3426.21"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119720/transcript/30807/annotation/999","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"are","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119720#t=3427.611,3428.444"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119720/transcript/30807/annotation/1000","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"sent","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119720#t=3428.444,3429.5"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119720/transcript/30807/annotation/1001","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"as time, response relationship.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119720#t=3429.5,3432.923"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119720/transcript/30807/annotation/1002","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"There's.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119720#t=3434.87,3435.703"}]},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119720/transcript/30807","type":"AnnotationPage","label":{"en":["English [Transcript]"]},"items":[{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119720/transcript/30807/annotation/1003","type":"Annotation","motivation":"subtitling","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"https://d9jk7wjtjpu5g.cloudfront.net/file_transcripts/associated_files/000/030/807/original/AV167908_Computers_and_Statistics_b.vtt?1626717893","format":"text/vtt","language":"en"},"target":"https://d9jk7wjtjpu5g.cloudfront.net/file_transcripts/associated_files/000/030/807/original/AV167908_Computers_and_Statistics_b.vtt?1626717893"}]},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119720/transcript/30808","type":"AnnotationPage","label":{"en":["AV167908_Computers_and_Statistics_b.txt [Transcript]"]},"items":[{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119720/transcript/30808/annotation/1004","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"- I'm very pleased to introduce tonight, Dr. H.O. Hartley, who's gonna speak on The Role of Computers in Statistical Research. And those of you, who know nothing about him I can give you some of his fantastic credentials. He has three doctor's degrees. First one was earned in Math in Berlin University. Second one in Mathematical Statistics at Cambridge and a third Doctor of Science degree in Math Statistics, in the University of London. He is a fellow of the Institute of Mathematical Statistics a fellow of the American Statistical Association, a member of the International Statistical Institute, fellow of the Texas Academy of Science and a fellow of the American Society for Quality Control. In 1973 here in the Samuel Wilks Memorial Award in Statistics. Currently he is Professor of Economics and Distinguished Professor of Statistics and he is Director of the Institute of Statistics at Texas A\u0026M University. He was in the faculty here from 1953 to 1963. With that I'd like to introduce Dr. Hartley\r\n\r\n- Thank you, Becky. Thank you Becky for this very nice introduction. As you have heard, you can hardly see me but, I'd like you to hear me. So if you will move forward I talk quite an awful lot today. So, it is an all, it's a very nice pleasure and a great honor to have been invited by the Society, Mu Sigma Rho, to come and talk to you on the Iowa State Campus. As I have said this afternoon, this is like coming back home. Because I have been on the faculty of Iowa state for 10 years. And I am seeing a lot of familiar faces around and it is nice to make, again see friends and interchange experiences with them. A wonderful opportunity, and the pleasure and honor is all mine. I hope that as far as the members of the society are concerned, we've just gone through a magnificent bankrupt that they won't find that, this is a very dry dessert after this. I am supposed to talk about the Impact of Computers on Statistics. The topic of this talk, maybe regarded by some to imply something that is undesirable. Computers are after all, mechanical tools. In spite, what we see advertised in glowing colors about these electronic brains they cannot do anything on their own account and the human brain has to provide all their thinking. The idea then, that this mechanical sleeve should influence the thoughts of scientists may appear to be altogether dangerous and undesirable. After some reflection, we may be inclined to admit that this new tool may have an influence on our methods of computation. However, computational methods are regarded by many scientists as a sort of second class Elea. A necessary evil to obtain numerical answers. A trivial matter, not worthy of discussion. Characteristic of this attitude is a casual remark of a statistician. Incidentally, Kempi I'm not referring to you. He was apparently bored when a group of fellow statisticians were discussing convenient convenient, computational procedures to obtain certain statistical estimates. He remarked, that the computational procedure most convenient to him, was to proceed to the computing lab and tell them to get on with it. It is true that computers are mechanical tools, as such they certainly affect the computational aspects of research in science and statistics. However, will they reach the heart and soul of such research work? Will the influence the outlook of statisticians? I think they will. Let us look at an analogy with which many of you will be familiar. Soon after Roentgen discovered X-rays, their clinical potentialities were realized. They became a mechanical tool to help physicians in their diagnosis. But did they influence the outlook on medical treatment? No physician would dispute today that they did. Quite apart from the fact that X-ray therapy is a recognized treatment. The mere fact that X-rays make it easier to diagnose internal anomalies has influenced the clinical outlook, fundamentally. The mere fact then, that High-speed Computers can carry out computations much faster influences, our evaluation of research projects in statistics and elsewhere in science. In my brief part on this influence, I will confine myself to a few selected aspects rather than make an unsuccessful attempt to recite them all. The first aspect is what some of you may regard very trivial one, the quality control and editing of data. The ever growing number of studies and surveys in the social engineering and life sciences is producing an overwhelming amount of data. In statistical analysis of such information, usually consists of the computation of some of these or estimates from such data. For example, we may wish to check on the accuracy of inventory records of an arsenal, by a direct sample survey in the warehouses. This will lead to statistical estimates of the actual inventory as opposed to the inventory on the records. Again, we wish to estimate incidents rates of certain diseases, for certain communities from data collected in the National Health Interview Survey, so called NHIS. If the task of a computer were confined to the mere doing of sums and percentages, this would be an easy matter. And one on which high-speed and high-powered computer would probably be wasted. However, as those of you who have had experience with survey data, only know too well, it would be reckless to assume that there are no errors in the data. It is therefore of paramount importance that at all stages of data collection and processing the quality of the data be controlled. One such control is the scrutiny of data for what is called Internal Consistency. You may no doubt have heard about the famous Teenage Grandmothers, which turn up occasionally on census questionnaires and are duly eliminated. Here the inconsistency of the answers, relation to how head of household answer, Mother. Age, answer 16, is obviously inconsistent. Very likely the 16 should have been 61. There are other consistencies, which are not as obvious, others that are conceivably correct such as a son quote, whose age exceeds that of the wife of his father. Is possible. Or indeed we may have here a case of some embarrassing situation of information retrieval. She may be his stepmother, until quite recently, such common sense, data scrutiny and consequential editing was performed by hosts of clerks. For studies of a more specialized nature, however, inconsistencies can of course, only be discovered by personnel with an acquired expert knowledge, for example, in a study involving clinical examinations of cancer of the breast, the classification of Stage, that's a clinical term, may have to be checked against the recorded anatomical or histological division codes. Only personnel completely familiar with clinical concepts, will of course, be able to perform a scrutiny of such records. With the advent of high-speed computers more and more of these functions of data scrutiny are being and taken over by these giant machines. For this to be feasible, you must convey to the computer in minute detail, the complete logical sequence of the involved check procedure, including all the know-how as to what the expert would be looking for. What else the expert would be looking for. More over, for the computer to deal with cases which maybe errors or maybe collect data of an unusual nature, the computer must be able to refer to statistical information so that it can gauge a suspect discrepancy against a statistical tolerance. After all such information has been stored in the computer memory, the data from a particular study, survey or census are passed through the computer for automatic scrutiny. I'd like to intersperse here, a simple example of statistical tolerances. If you are interested in controlling the accuracy of height and weight records of schoolchildren, Jake boys you may have from past data available, a distribution of weight records, separately for sub population of boys of a particular age, say six of a particular height range. Those mean values for weight differ, of course because they're correlated with age and with height. And so, a table like that of say upper 1% point that is to say, weight records that would only occur normally for the sub group in 1% of the cases can be picked up, as possibly suspect. Possibly suspect and pulled out for possible scrutiny, human examination to see whether they are right or whether something has gone wrong. As soon as the computer encounters an inconsistency it is instructed to either, A. Record on tape or punch card the details of the suspected inconsistency in the data and list it for human inspection and reconciliation. Or and A. would be called the monitoring of data. Or B. Immediately proceed to correct any inconsistent item with the help of statistical estimation procedures and using the data which it has already accepted. The difference is that in the first case you pull the data out that are possibly suspect and the human mind will examine by a followup, whether the record is wrong or right. In the other case, there is built-in an imputation procedure as it's called to automatically correct the error. There's no question, there's no investigation. Most organizations such as the Bureau of the Census using automatic data scrutiny and editing, employ a judicious combination of these two methods. The first procedure is usually preferred in situations when human eliminations of reconciled inconsistencies, are administratively feasible as it would be with smaller, more specialized studies. The second method, automated imputation of suspect or missing data is adopted when the merging of a collection tape with the original of the data tape becomes practically infeasible, as is the case was census operations. With an adequate control on the frequency with which imputations, that is automatic corrections are made, such a method has in fact been in successful use during the latest population censuses. The so-called Hot Deck Method, I was going to explain in a little bit more detail. Some of you in sample survey and census data analysis will undoubtedly have heard about the so-called Hot Deck Method, which is a streamlined regression method. A very streamlined to estimate the regression estimate of a suspect data, from those data points that are accepted, acceptable for that particular unit. Today, the Bureau of the Census uses this Hot Deck Method and similar methods of data editing as an integral part of the tight quality control on data from which its releases are tabulated. It can be said that these data editing activities constitute one of the main uses of the high-speed computers. As a matter of fact, estimate that 95% of the computer time of the Bureau of census high-speed computers are used for data editing, 5% for tabulating the releases. In other situation, it is regarded necessary to always follow up a suspected error in the data by human inspection. You may have rightly say that you do not regard such uses of computers as a break through in research. After all, computer is merely used for functions that could with great effort be performed by other means. More over the computer has to borrow its intelligence, for its human permits human procanace. However, we must not underestimate the tremendous speed and accuracy, with which the computers scrutinize this data by freeing, train, personnel for more challenging tasks. It enormously enhances the potentialities of a research team, engaged in these studies. which in studies which involve extensive data analysis, moreover it permits the analysis of data, which in an uncontrolled and unedited state would have been too unreliable for the drawing of influences. Now to the outlook in this area. With the advent of bigger and faster computers or systems of automatic quality control of data will become more and more ambitious. Although this is result in more searching, error scrutiny, it is clearly impossible to provide a control system that will detect any error, however unusual. Much ingenuity is therefore needed by using the knowledge of experts to guide the computer logic, to search for the errors and error patterns most likely to be found in any body of data. This is a very interesting application to combination of mathematics and social science in the future. The mathematical solution of thinking of all combinatorial possibilities of error patterns is an astronomical task of error patterns. And it's out of the question, in data editing to provide for these. You must therefore make a judicious select of the patterns, based on expert, past experience as to what kind of error patterns may arise. And it is a very challenging task to provide such efficient data editing procedures. The next aspect I wish to consider is the analysis of experimental data, impact of computer on experimental work for which statistical analysis is used as a research tool. The techniques most frequently used in this activity, are analysis of variance and regression analysis. Many excellent computer systems are now available for performing these computations. Undoubtedly, the availability of computers has increased the capabilities of research teams of having their data analyzed, where previously desk computers could only cover the analysis of affection of their data. More over, computers have more or less eliminated the so-called Shortcut Analysis such as analysis of variance based on range in place of mean squares. Such shortcut methods have justified their lowest statistical efficiency by their rapid execution on desks computers or by pencil and paper methods. Unfortunately, along with these advantages of computers there are associated serious pitfalls of which I wish to discuss to, very briefly. The first pitfall. The use of inappropriate canned programs. As statisticians, we find all too frequently that an experimenter, takes his data directly to a computer center programmer, usually called an analyst, for a so-called statistical analysis. The programmer pulls a canned statistical program out of his file and their results extensive, their result extensive machine outputs, most of which are irrelevant to the purpose of the experiment. This does, the plausible situation can only be avoided through having competent statistical advice, preferably in the design stage, and certainly in the analysis stage. Often the statistical analysis appropriate to the purpose of the experiment is not covered by a canned program. And it is appreciated that this time schedule pressures may be necessary to use a canned program, which gives at least a relevant basic analysis. For example, it may be decided to use a basic factorial analysis of variance and subsequently pool certain components on a desk computer to produce the appropriate analysis of variance. For example, Split-Plot experiment, which can be basically regarded as an automated pictorial experiment analysis with three factors, blocks B main treatments T and sub treatments S. If there is again factorial analysis available you can, of course, very quickly produce this analysis of bearings table and of all the main effects B T S, two factor interactions, B T, T S, and B S and the triple interaction, B S T. And then a pool of them in this appropriate fashion on a desk computer to get the appropriate analysis. So it is quite acceptable sometimes to use as a basic analysis, sometimes that is conveniently available and then modify it for the particular purpose. Shouldn't be too hard. I mean, obstinate in this area. The second pitfall I want to discuss is the loss of contact between experimenter and his data analysis. Here it is argued that in the good old days, when experimenters quote, did their sums of squares themselves, they were learning quote, learning a lot about their data and the computer just toys this intimate contact with the data. Now we must clearly distinguish between performing computations on desk computers as opposed to an intelligent scrutiny of the data. Preferably, an inspection of error residuals, as they're called. The former, that is to say computation on desks computers is to my mind, pointless. The latter, the intelligence scrutiny of data, highly desirable. Indeed, I would venture to say that all analysis of variance and regression programs should provide options for both tabulation of all individual error residuals for inspection as well as a statistical outlier, a statistical outlier tests on all residuals which flag unusually large residuals in case the experimenter overlooks them. It is very strange that the possibilities of faulty records is clearly recognized in the area of censuses and surveys and all too often overlooked in the analysis of experimental data. But the intelligent inspection of residuals should not only provide a monitor for faulty records. It should also be used by the experimenter to learn something about this data. Systematic patterns of large error residuals often provide useful pointers for the modification of the models. Usually the additive models that were assumed, for example the form of the residuals in linear regression may indicate neglected quadratic or higher order terms. So residuals are all positive on one side and they say negative on the other side. You can see that possibly, there's a quadratic term that should have been fitted. Systematic patterns of large error residuals often provide useful pointers. If factorial analysis of variance of a response Y, in which the main effects of two quantitative factors, input factors X1 say the temperature of exposure, and X2 say the time of exposure and a plunge, indicate large residuals. We have the two main effects of PEPs in significant but the interaction is significant, often suggests that the relevant input is not the temperature all the time, but may be the product of time by temperature, which is directly proportional to the total amount of heat, put into the process. It's a very simple physical engineering theory, that, that might affect the process. Why? And here on this slide I am showing the pattern of residuals that you are, that would be appearing if the product X1 by X2, the total amount of heat put into the system, Is the important one as you might expect, there are two quantum's. This one, and this one, where the residuals are positive, both X1, X2, below mean. Both X1, X2, above mean. And two of them were then negative. When you see that, it's almost a certainty that the product might be, when you have to see whether the product has a physical real meaning in this particular body of data. I say here that, the product by X1, X 2 has got the above residuals, but would have significant main effects. But if the product X1, X2 is of importance and some negative main effects are subtracted into real law, and the main effect all together might be zero, This law would form these residual zero main effects and very highly significant interaction. So here is an example in which the pattern of the residuals is a pointer to modify models that have been postulated, And, not all the situations are as obvious as this one where the interpretation of the product is so reasonable, namely, the total amount of heat that has been put into the system. Now, let us turn to an area in which computers are used to solve problems in the theory of statistics. I'm talking about the Solution of Statistical Distribution Problems by Monte Carlo. Monte Carlo of course, is a very important method. It is sometimes called Simulation, but I will first confine myself to the particular application of Monte Carlo to solve statistical distribution problems. Here is an explanation of the general problem of a distribution of a statistic. And then I will explain it in terms of special case of the Chi-Square Distribution. Xi is a random sample of size n from a distribution, of the density, alternate fx and this cumulative density frequency of capital FX. So that capital FX is the integral of F from the lower end up to X. A statistic is defined as the mathematical function of the Xi H is a mathematical function of the sample values. At this stage, we might explain these concepts by this example. Xi is a random sample of size N from a normal distribution and H of Xi is simply the sum of the squares of these normal variables. Of course, everybody knows sample of normal variables, Xi. Then form their sums of squares. One such function called chi-square is then scored. It is tabulated in certain categories on the chi-square scale, is scored on a chi-squared scale. And eventually we get a lot of chi-squared values. You've won a lot of samples, and so we have a cumulative histogram, all this chi set of chi-squared values. And if this is repeated, a fairly large number of times they will eventually result a smooth cumulative histogram, which is them essentially representing the CDF, the Cumulative Distribution Function of the case. But of course, you all know what this function is. It is essentially the incomplete, the integral of the incomplete gamma incomplete gamma function, essentially. And I will not bother about showing the mathematical fall of the two cumulative distribution. Returning to the general definition then, having defined the statistic as a function of the sample values, the cumulative distribution of this statistic H, is defined of the probability or the proportional frequency with which these functions of the sample little age are smaller than a specified value capital, H and is therefore defined by this very simple integral, the joint frequency, the product of the f , integrated over the sample space, R and the sample space R is defined as that sub space in the sample space Xi, for which this function each has a value smaller than capital H. This is the mathematical formulation of the solution of a distribution problem. Now of course, before the high-speed computers were in the picture, this computation, this integration was performed analytically or in certain cases by numerically integration methods. But neither of these methods sometimes gives a practical solution to the problem. So we have to rely on the always available Monte Carlo method, which goes back to the concept of basic sampling and produces the CDF of this statistic from first principles. Say, well, why didn't we always do this? Let us first say then, it is clear from the description of Monte Carlo procedures that I've given, that the principal steps of computing estimates of frequency distributions for the statistic H, consists of two steps, namely, the generation of the samples Xi, and then the computation of the function of the Xi, and then the frequency computation of the frequency distribution. These are the simple numerical steps And I will very briefly describe the first of these steps, namely, the computation of a random sample Xi, from a specified distribution, such as normal. Well-known procedure is, to generate in the computer, so-called uniform variables. By general, that is variables that have an equal probability to be distributed between this value zero and one, which I have called here Ui. How are those generated? The computer is asked to generate random digits, such as this, say five of them. And then it interprets these random digits as a decimal fraction. Random digit means all digits, not one up to nine, that have an equal probability to be generated. There are many computer programs that do this. You interpret the random digits. So assemble as a decimal quantity, that is got an equal chance to lie between North and one, let's say we get this one. And then you enter a table of the inverse of the CDF of the parental distribution from which you want to generate a normal, for which you want generate random variables and you get your Xi. So Xi is the inverse of the CDF with the Ui uniform variable substitute. This is a favorite method of toying random samples within the computer. Of course, in the case of a normal, what are these the XiR, what some people call the percentage points of the normal, inverse of the normal intercourse. And we would have to have a support team generating these percentage points. So this is really the only thing that you have to do to solve a distribution problem by Monte Carlo because the next step of computing the function of the Xi is very simple. So again, I say, people may ask, why didn't we always do this? In deed there are now, many dissertations that can solve the problem analytically, and solve the problem by a Monte Carlo. Now, I turn to a big handicap of Monte-Carlo methods. And that is the fact that unfortunately astronomical numbers of samples are quiet to produce solutions to the problem that are of adequate accuracy. As is well known, very large number of capital N, that's not the sample size, but number of samples. The number of times you have to compute each, R for the statistic each is required in order that the empirical frequencies of the capital N values of H provide even moderately accurate estimates of its cumulative probability distribution. An idea as to the magnitude of the number of samples that came, are required can be obtained by applying the well known, Kolmogorov-Smirnov Theorem, a criterion of goodness of fit. This criterion measures the maximum discrepancy Dn. Here we have a very small sample, one, two, three, four, five, six, seven. And here we have the cumulative samples CDF going up step of one-sevenths at every sample point. Now, suppose we knew for this distribution of H the exact mathematical answer here, the Kolmogorov-Smirnov Theorem, makes a statement about the maximum difference between the exact CDF and the sample CDF. What is the biggest error? In fact, it States that the probability for this maximum error to be smaller than 1.63, this is some approximate result I shouldn't go into this, divided by the square root of the number of samples for the probability that the maximum error is smaller than that gauge of value is equal to 0.99. That is to say, a 99% of Monte-Carlo calculation, your maximum discrepancy will indeed be smaller than that amount. Now, of course, this maximum discrepancy, as many of you will know, will usually occur in the middle of the CDF. That's not too bad for Monte Carlo applications because it is there that the largest LSI acceptable. And so Dn, although it recurs in the middle of the table, will give you a pretty good idea of how accurate the Monte Carlo is. However, what does this simple statement tell us about the sample size N? if we want an accuracy of a table of the CDF to three decimals, then our maximum error is five times 10 to the minus four. We are creating five times 10 to the minus four to this quantity, 1.63 divided by square root of N. And solve for N the answer is, over 10 million. Over 10 million of samples are required to get that miserable accuracy of three decimals. Is very, very shocking realization. And, It is therefore the Monte Carlists, the people who's developed Monte Carlo methods for solving statistical distribution function have developed methods, They call of, reducing the sample size. It's a bad expression if you see that. It's really reducing the number of samples that they're concerned with. Methods that have been developed are, importance for collection sampling, Cone and Marshall. Multistage sampling, Marsha. Conditional sampling, Tukey and Trotter. Antithetic variables, Hammersley and Morton. Use of control variables, Fieller and HARTLEY. stratified sampling Ringer and Smith. For details of these methods, you have to go to the literature. May it suffice here to say that with all these methods sampling can be reduced considerably at no loss of precision. That the relative merits of these methods depend on the circumstances of the sampling problem and on the gadgetry of the high-speed computer, which is available. It is of interest that most of the above sampling producing methods are closely related to devices, which sample surveyors use, when sampling life population. That is stratification, regression estimates, optimum allocations and the like. Designers of sample surveys have always been concerned with reducing the variance of estimates at constant cost or constant sample size. We may in the future, look forward to the further blending of efforts between the sample survey and the mathematical Monte Carlist. The effect of Monte Carlo and research in distribution theory, the fact that any distributional problem, whatever it's analytic difficulties, can we solved by Monte Carlo, has undoubtedly had a profound effect on the orientation of mathematical researches in this area. Indeed, it has been argued that we do no longer require the mathematically ingenious methods of characteristic functions that some of you may have used. Combinatorial techniques and the like to obtain numerical answers for such a viewpoint is however, fallacious. For a part from the large number of samples N, that are still required, in spite of the reducing methods Monte Carlo answers, usually are acquired in all that are required in practically all problems depend on a large number of parameters. The sample size N is one of such parameters. Usually all parameters involved in the parental CDF, the parental CDF. That's our normal, that too, but also affect the CDF of the statistic. And there maybe others such as those describing groupings and truncations in the distribution problem. For example, with a moderate number of 20 levels, for each of two parameters in F of X that's the CDF of the parental distribution and 20 different sample sizes. Moderate number of combination, 20 to the three, that is to say 8,000 Monte Carlo gums would be required each based on a large number of samples. That in searching for methods to reduce the computation load, one of the most attractive procedures is to derive an analytic approximation including its dependence on all parameters that are involved and then perform Monte Carlo computations for key combinations of these parameters to obtain a correction for the analytic approximation, with the help of Monte-Carlo in key positions of the parameter space. This has been a most effective use of combined approximation analysis. Is a lot little big alien statistics, approximation analysis and Monte Carlo. The counterpart to Monte Carlo in the applications of statistics to certain engineering and management problems is the well known simulation, technique of simulation. Most of you are undoubtedly more familiar with computer simulation techniques than I am. And I will therefore confine myself here to a brief description in two examples. The first, well one example, really I have no time for the second. The example that I want to discuss is the optimization of a production process by computer simulation. The steps in this procedure, I will depart from text simply as follows, step number one. The building of the model to simulate the production process. For example, we may simulate the production process by a directed network for the completion time of all activities in the production process, including bottle necks and back loops. Those of you who have done PERT network analysis. This is a network without loops, but it is similar sort of situation, and here we simulate the production process by assuming a specified distribution of the completion times for all activities involved in the production process. Two. Computer implementation of the model. In the case of a PERT network, that would be what we call statistical PERT network analysis. We actually use the computer to generate repeatedly a randomly selected completion time for all activities involved in the production process. Three. This is a very important step. The validation of the model for those parameter levels used in past operations, that plant has been run at certain levels, operating conditions as they are called. And you can measure the output characteristics on the plant as it has been run. You will now use the computer to simulate that plant as it was run, and to compare the answers from the simulation and the actual fact. Now it is not a foolproof test of the model but as a, it's not a sufficient condition, but it's true, it is a necessary thing that should be carried out. Only a very extensive validations of the model of this kind have been carried out. Can you face up to use the model for optimization of the process. That means, you are now changing the running conditions, changing the parameters, plant conditions, in order to optimize the output. Unless the model has been validated it is garbage in garbage out. And this is a very important part of the process that is unfortunately often omitted, because of the difficulty of getting data. The false is obviously the optimization. This is what this exercise is for. You want to run this process at better, in a better way increase the output and so forth. And the optimization in this case is done, in technique by a technique called mathematical programming. Programing is nothing to do with computer programing used in another form linear programing, Is an important special case. This is the last stage, after the model has been validated, can you optimize? It says the operational research analog to Monte Carlo calculations. Now I come to my last item and this I consider really the most important impact that computers have on statistical research or indeed scientific research. And that is the impact on mathematical model building the process of building mathematical models. Perhaps the most significant impact of computers is in this area. Classical analysis used to insist on use of mathematical models, for which, compact mathematical solutions could be found. This generated a tendency on the part of the analysts to restate their studies to such mathematically tractable models. Even at the expense of oversimplifying them in an unrealistic manner. Let me describe these concepts first, in terms of an exam, set of examples, and these examples are sent as time, response relationship. There's.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/46594/file/119720#t=0.0,3438.984"}]}]}]}