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Institute.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45495/file/118455#t=13.24,14.933"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45495/file/118455/transcript/29796/annotation/4","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"Although one of the youngest parts of the university,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45495/file/118455#t=16.28,21.28"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45495/file/118455/transcript/29796/annotation/5","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"the World Food Institute is rapidly becoming","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45495/file/118455#t=21.78,26.28"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45495/file/118455/transcript/29796/annotation/6","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"one of the more important and integral parts","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45495/file/118455#t=26.28,28.73"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45495/file/118455/transcript/29796/annotation/7","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"of this 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education.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45495/file/118455#t=33.87,35.353"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45495/file/118455/transcript/29796/annotation/10","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"The Institute was recommended back in 1939","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45495/file/118455#t=37.44,41.62"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45495/file/118455/transcript/29796/annotation/11","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"by a group of faculty members of committee faculty 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university","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45495/file/118455#t=49.68,52.1"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45495/file/118455/transcript/29796/annotation/14","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"by the Board of Regents in 1972.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45495/file/118455#t=52.1,55.953"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45495/file/118455/transcript/29796/annotation/15","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"The purpose of the World Food Institute,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45495/file/118455#t=57.17,59.13"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45495/file/118455/transcript/29796/annotation/16","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"and I'm going to quote briefly here","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45495/file/118455#t=59.13,62.05"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45495/file/118455/transcript/29796/annotation/17","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"is to focus ISU competencies and leadership","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45495/file/118455#t=62.05,65.82"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45495/file/118455/transcript/29796/annotation/18","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"upon the provision of adequate and nutritious food supplies","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45495/file/118455#t=65.82,69.68"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45495/file/118455/transcript/29796/annotation/19","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"for the world's people through research and 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departments","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45495/file/118455#t=82.56,85.36"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45495/file/118455/transcript/29796/annotation/24","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"can cross college and department lines","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45495/file/118455#t=85.36,87.88"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45495/file/118455/transcript/29796/annotation/25","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"and work together as interdisciplinary teams","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45495/file/118455#t=87.88,91.04"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45495/file/118455/transcript/29796/annotation/26","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"on important world food problems","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45495/file/118455#t=91.04,93.52"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45495/file/118455/transcript/29796/annotation/27","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"which most of the problems have the roots","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45495/file/118455#t=93.52,95.51"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45495/file/118455/transcript/29796/annotation/28","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"in many different disciplines.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45495/file/118455#t=95.51,97.41"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45495/file/118455/transcript/29796/annotation/29","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"The director of the Institute is Dr. Charlotte Roderick.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45495/file/118455#t=97.41,101.22"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45495/file/118455/transcript/29796/annotation/30","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"Charlotte, would you stand up?","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45495/file/118455#t=101.22,102.72"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45495/file/118455/transcript/29796/annotation/31","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"We'll make this very 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Nutrition.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45495/file/118455#t=106.34,109.423"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45495/file/118455/transcript/29796/annotation/34","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"Now one of the functions,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45495/file/118455#t=110.73,112.66"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45495/file/118455/transcript/29796/annotation/35","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"the World Food Institute has a number of 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scholar","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45495/file/118455#t=118.94,123.94"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45495/file/118455/transcript/29796/annotation/38","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"throughout the United States or other countries,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45495/file/118455#t=123.98,126.453"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45495/file/118455/transcript/29796/annotation/39","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"however, prior to introducing this evening's speaker,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45495/file/118455#t=127.57,131.55"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45495/file/118455/transcript/29796/annotation/40","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"I would like to introduce the person who enables him","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45495/file/118455#t=131.55,134.61"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45495/file/118455/transcript/29796/annotation/41","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"and possibly tolerate him to make speeches like 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feed","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45495/file/118455#t=584.25,588.04"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45495/file/118455/transcript/29796/annotation/184","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"would reduce the food supplies of low-income countries.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45495/file/118455#t=588.04,591.563"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45495/file/118455/transcript/29796/annotation/185","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"Let us briefly consider the empirical validity","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45495/file/118455#t=592.41,595.72"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45495/file/118455/transcript/29796/annotation/186","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"of each of these assumptions.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45495/file/118455#t=595.72,597.313"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45495/file/118455/transcript/29796/annotation/187","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"Fertilizer prices.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45495/file/118455#t=598.51,600.27"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45495/file/118455/transcript/29796/annotation/188","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"After the formation of OPEC,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45495/file/118455#t=600.27,602.75"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45495/file/118455/transcript/29796/annotation/189","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"many feared that the sharp increases in the prices of 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decline","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45495/file/118455#t=610.69,612.82"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45495/file/118455/transcript/29796/annotation/192","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"with a significant adverse effect upon food production.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45495/file/118455#t=612.82,616.943"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45495/file/118455/transcript/29796/annotation/193","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"Everyone knows that fertilizer 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energy","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45495/file/118455#t=622.93,626.98"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45495/file/118455/transcript/29796/annotation/196","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"should result in large increases in the price of fertilizer,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45495/file/118455#t=626.98,630.233"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45495/file/118455/transcript/29796/annotation/197","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"but what in effect has occurred","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45495/file/118455#t=631.29,633.37"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45495/file/118455/transcript/29796/annotation/198","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"failed to follow this simplistic scenario.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45495/file/118455#t=633.37,636.57"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45495/file/118455/transcript/29796/annotation/199","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"In the United States for example,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45495/file/118455#t=636.57,638.77"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45495/file/118455/transcript/29796/annotation/200","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"and the U.S. experience is not different","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45495/file/118455#t=638.77,640.53"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45495/file/118455/transcript/29796/annotation/201","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"from that of scores of other countries.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45495/file/118455#t=640.53,643.52"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45495/file/118455/transcript/29796/annotation/202","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"As 1980 began,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45495/file/118455#t=643.52,645.65"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45495/file/118455/transcript/29796/annotation/203","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"the index of the average price paid by farmers","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45495/file/118455#t=645.65,648.21"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45495/file/118455/transcript/29796/annotation/204","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"for all fertilizers,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45495/file/118455#t=648.21,649.89"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45495/file/118455/transcript/29796/annotation/205","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"was lower relative to the price index","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45495/file/118455#t=649.89,653.13"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45495/file/118455/transcript/29796/annotation/206","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"for all farm production items","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45495/file/118455#t=653.13,655.49"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45495/file/118455/transcript/29796/annotation/207","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"than in the 1967 base period.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45495/file/118455#t=655.49,658.78"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45495/file/118455/transcript/29796/annotation/208","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"The difference was not small","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45495/file/118455#t=658.78,660.87"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45495/file/118455/transcript/29796/annotation/209","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"as of March 15th, 1980, just a little over a month ago,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45495/file/118455#t=660.87,664.76"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45495/file/118455/transcript/29796/annotation/210","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"the price index for all production items was 267,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45495/file/118455#t=664.76,668.9"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45495/file/118455/transcript/29796/annotation/211","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"while the price index for fertilizer was 244.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45495/file/118455#t=668.9,672.56"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45495/file/118455/transcript/29796/annotation/212","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"This meant that the relative fertilizer prices","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45495/file/118455#t=672.56,675.47"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45495/file/118455/transcript/29796/annotation/213","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"had declined by 10% between 1967 and early 1980.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45495/file/118455#t=675.47,680.45"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45495/file/118455/transcript/29796/annotation/214","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"And compared to the prices that farmers receive","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45495/file/118455#t=682.54,684.59"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45495/file/118455/transcript/29796/annotation/215","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"for their products,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45495/file/118455#t=684.59,686.09"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45495/file/118455/transcript/29796/annotation/216","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"the prices of fertilizer had also declined","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45495/file/118455#t=686.09,688.06"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45495/file/118455/transcript/29796/annotation/217","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"over this period of time.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45495/file/118455#t=688.06,689.333"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45495/file/118455/transcript/29796/annotation/218","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"These relative price relationships prevailed","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45495/file/118455#t=690.2,693.34"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45495/file/118455/transcript/29796/annotation/219","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"even though fertilizer prices, which are quite volatile,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45495/file/118455#t=693.34,696.61"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45495/file/118455/transcript/29796/annotation/220","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"had increased by approximately 30% during 1979.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45495/file/118455#t=696.61,701.03"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45495/file/118455/transcript/29796/annotation/221","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"Further increases in fertilizer prices will occur,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45495/file/118455#t=701.03,704.35"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45495/file/118455/transcript/29796/annotation/222","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"but even with an increase of a fifth or so,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45495/file/118455#t=704.35,707.26"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45495/file/118455/transcript/29796/annotation/223","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"the relative price of fertilizer","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45495/file/118455#t=707.26,708.91"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45495/file/118455/transcript/29796/annotation/224","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"will have increased very little.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45495/file/118455#t=708.91,710.913"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45495/file/118455/transcript/29796/annotation/225","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"How can this behavior fertilizer be explained?","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45495/file/118455#t=712.24,715.84"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45495/file/118455/transcript/29796/annotation/226","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"Several factors may be noted.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45495/file/118455#t=715.84,717.823"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45495/file/118455/transcript/29796/annotation/227","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"Well, energy is an important component of the cost","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45495/file/118455#t=719.18,721.59"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45495/file/118455/transcript/29796/annotation/228","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"of producing fertilizer, especially nitrogen fertilizer,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45495/file/118455#t=721.59,724.91"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45495/file/118455/transcript/29796/annotation/229","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"there have been significant technological progress","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45495/file/118455#t=724.91,728.7"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45495/file/118455/transcript/29796/annotation/230","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"in fertilizer production during the past 15 years.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45495/file/118455#t=728.7,732.37"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45495/file/118455/transcript/29796/annotation/231","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"In fact, the technological changes that became available","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45495/file/118455#t=732.37,736.14"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45495/file/118455/transcript/29796/annotation/232","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"for the production of nitrogen fertilizer in the 1960s,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45495/file/118455#t=736.14,739.67"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45495/file/118455/transcript/29796/annotation/233","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"reduce real costs by about 50%.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45495/file/118455#t=739.67,742.88"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45495/file/118455/transcript/29796/annotation/234","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"Another factor is that the price farmers paying","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45495/file/118455#t=742.88,744.93"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45495/file/118455/transcript/29796/annotation/235","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"for fertilizer","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45495/file/118455#t=744.93,746.32"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45495/file/118455/transcript/29796/annotation/236","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"include many components in addition to the raw fertilizer.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45495/file/118455#t=746.32,749.79"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45495/file/118455/transcript/29796/annotation/237","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"Transportation, mixing, marketing and storage.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45495/file/118455#t=749.79,752.91"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45495/file/118455/transcript/29796/annotation/238","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"Finally, a significant part","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45495/file/118455#t=752.91,754.43"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45495/file/118455/transcript/29796/annotation/239","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"of the world's nitrogen fertilizer output","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45495/file/118455#t=754.43,757.09"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45495/file/118455/transcript/29796/annotation/240","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"is being produced with low value in natural gas.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45495/file/118455#t=757.09,760.12"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45495/file/118455/transcript/29796/annotation/241","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"Either because of long-term price contracts,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45495/file/118455#t=760.12,762.98"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45495/file/118455/transcript/29796/annotation/242","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"or the shifting of nitrogen production","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45495/file/118455#t=762.98,766.0"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45495/file/118455/transcript/29796/annotation/243","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"to areas where natural gas is still being 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people","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45495/file/118455#t=3495.31,3498.2"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45495/file/118455/transcript/29796/annotation/1123","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"will be improved during the rest of the century.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45495/file/118455#t=3498.2,3500.6"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45495/file/118455/transcript/29796/annotation/1124","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"Concluding comments.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45495/file/118455#t=3502.07,3503.87"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45495/file/118455/transcript/29796/annotation/1125","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"It is common","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45495/file/118455#t=3503.87,3504.703"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45495/file/118455/transcript/29796/annotation/1126","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"in the discussion of the potential growth of food production","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45495/file/118455#t=3504.703,3507.48"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45495/file/118455/transcript/29796/annotation/1127","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"to emphasize the restraints imposed by nature.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45495/file/118455#t=3507.48,3511.49"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45495/file/118455/transcript/29796/annotation/1128","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"The finite limits of our natural resources","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45495/file/118455#t=3511.49,3514.59"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45495/file/118455/transcript/29796/annotation/1129","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"and the vagaries of climate.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45495/file/118455#t=3514.59,3516.75"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45495/file/118455/transcript/29796/annotation/1130","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"It is easy to paint a gloomy picture","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45495/file/118455#t=3516.75,3518.86"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45495/file/118455/transcript/29796/annotation/1131","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"of the future of the world.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45495/file/118455#t=3518.86,3520.55"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45495/file/118455/transcript/29796/annotation/1132","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"If you accept the view that our supplies","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45495/file/118455#t=3520.55,3522.65"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45495/file/118455/transcript/29796/annotation/1133","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"of fossil energy will be exhausted in some finite period,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45495/file/118455#t=3522.65,3527.11"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45495/file/118455/transcript/29796/annotation/1134","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"that erosion will destroy","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45495/file/118455#t=3527.11,3528.42"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45495/file/118455/transcript/29796/annotation/1135","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"a large part of the land use for crops","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45495/file/118455#t=3528.42,3530.86"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45495/file/118455/transcript/29796/annotation/1136","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"and the future scientific discoveries","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45495/file/118455#t=3530.86,3532.847"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45495/file/118455/transcript/29796/annotation/1137","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"increasingly will be less relevant","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45495/file/118455#t=3532.847,3535.89"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45495/file/118455/transcript/29796/annotation/1138","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"to increasing food production.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45495/file/118455#t=3535.89,3537.393"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45495/file/118455/transcript/29796/annotation/1139","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"But if there is an enemy that will prevent the nutrition","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45495/file/118455#t=3539.6,3542.89"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45495/file/118455/transcript/29796/annotation/1140","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"improving the nutrition of the world's poor people,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45495/file/118455#t=3542.89,3545.963"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45495/file/118455/transcript/29796/annotation/1141","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"it is man and not nature.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45495/file/118455#t=3546.98,3549.1"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45495/file/118455/transcript/29796/annotation/1142","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"Man not nature will be the primary factor","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45495/file/118455#t=3549.1,3552.34"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45495/file/118455/transcript/29796/annotation/1143","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"in determining the rate of growth of food production","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45495/file/118455#t=3552.34,3554.64"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45495/file/118455/transcript/29796/annotation/1144","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"in the rest of the century.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45495/file/118455#t=3554.64,3556.65"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45495/file/118455/transcript/29796/annotation/1145","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"Nature is often niggardly and at times terribly cruel,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45495/file/118455#t=3556.65,3560.193"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45495/file/118455/transcript/29796/annotation/1146","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"but we now know enough about what is required","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45495/file/118455#t=3561.12,3564.04"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45495/file/118455/transcript/29796/annotation/1147","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"to expand food production,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45495/file/118455#t=3564.04,3565.85"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45495/file/118455/transcript/29796/annotation/1148","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"that we should no longer blame our failures upon nature.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45495/file/118455#t=3565.85,3569.373"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45495/file/118455/transcript/29796/annotation/1149","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"When I say that, man not nature,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45495/file/118455#t=3569.373,3571.53"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45495/file/118455/transcript/29796/annotation/1150","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"will impose the greatest barriers","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45495/file/118455#t=3571.53,3573.92"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45495/file/118455/transcript/29796/annotation/1151","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"to the potential for the expansion of food production.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45495/file/118455#t=3573.92,3576.86"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45495/file/118455/transcript/29796/annotation/1152","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"I'm not referring to the consequences","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45495/file/118455#t=3576.86,3578.7"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45495/file/118455/transcript/29796/annotation/1153","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"of the acts of farmers, traders, processors or suppliers,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45495/file/118455#t=3578.7,3583.7"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45495/file/118455/transcript/29796/annotation/1154","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"but to man as he functions in the political process.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45495/file/118455#t=3583.93,3587.21"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45495/file/118455/transcript/29796/annotation/1155","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"If policies are adopted","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45495/file/118455#t=3587.21,3588.75"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45495/file/118455/transcript/29796/annotation/1156","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"that permit appropriate incentives for farmers,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45495/file/118455#t=3588.75,3591.67"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45495/file/118455/transcript/29796/annotation/1157","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"provide them to his access to supplies at reasonable prices","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45495/file/118455#t=3591.67,3595.42"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45495/file/118455/transcript/29796/annotation/1158","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"and permit farmers to sell at the best possible prices,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45495/file/118455#t=3595.42,3598.66"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45495/file/118455/transcript/29796/annotation/1159","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"production growth will be favored.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45495/file/118455#t=3598.66,3601.05"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45495/file/118455/transcript/29796/annotation/1160","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"And if policies are followed that encourage research","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45495/file/118455#t=3601.05,3603.74"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45495/file/118455/transcript/29796/annotation/1161","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"and problems of agriculture of the low-income countries,","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45495/file/118455#t=3603.74,3606.79"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45495/file/118455/transcript/29796/annotation/1162","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"all will gain.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45495/file/118455#t=3606.79,3608.66"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45495/file/118455/transcript/29796/annotation/1163","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"The mistakes of the past have been costly.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45495/file/118455#t=3608.66,3611.21"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45495/file/118455/transcript/29796/annotation/1164","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"One can hope that the next decade or this decade","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45495/file/118455#t=3611.21,3615.1"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45495/file/118455/transcript/29796/annotation/1165","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"we'll see fewer such mistakes.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45495/file/118455#t=3615.1,3616.95"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45495/file/118455/transcript/29796/annotation/1166","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"Thank you very much.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45495/file/118455#t=3616.95,3618.45"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45495/file/118455/transcript/29796/annotation/1167","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"(crowd clapping)","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45495/file/118455#t=3618.45,3621.2"},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45495/file/118455/transcript/29796/annotation/1168","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"\u003cstrong\u003e Announcer:\u003c/strong\u003e Thank you Gale.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45495/file/118455#t=3631.195,3633.612"}]},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45495/file/118455/transcript/29796","type":"AnnotationPage","label":{"en":["English [Transcript]"]},"items":[{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45495/file/118455/transcript/29796/annotation/1169","type":"Annotation","motivation":"subtitling","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"https://d9jk7wjtjpu5g.cloudfront.net/file_transcripts/associated_files/000/029/796/original/AV168124_World_Hunger_Prospects_in_the_80s_a.vtt?1624894768","format":"text/vtt","language":"en"},"target":"https://d9jk7wjtjpu5g.cloudfront.net/file_transcripts/associated_files/000/029/796/original/AV168124_World_Hunger_Prospects_in_the_80s_a.vtt?1624894768"}]},{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45495/file/118455/transcript/29797","type":"AnnotationPage","label":{"en":["AV168124_World_Hunger_Prospects_in_the_80s_a.txt [Transcript]"]},"items":[{"id":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45495/file/118455/transcript/29797/annotation/1170","type":"Annotation","motivation":"transcribing","body":{"type":"TextualBody","value":"- [Announcer] Ladies and gentlemen, World Food Institute. Although one of the youngest parts of the university, the World Food Institute is rapidly becoming one of the more important and integral parts of this university, and in serving Iowa State University's mission in the area of education. The Institute was recommended back in 1939 by a group of faculty members of committee faculty members and it was finally developed and approved as an official part of the university by the Board of Regents in 1972. The purpose of the World Food Institute, and I'm going to quote briefly here is to focus ISU competencies and leadership upon the provision of adequate and nutritious food supplies for the world's people through research and education. In proceeding with this mission objective, the World Food Institute provides the means whereby faculty members from various colleges and various departments can cross college and department lines and work together as interdisciplinary teams on important world food problems which most of the problems have the roots in many different disciplines. The director of the Institute is Dr. Charlotte Roderick. Charlotte, would you stand up? We'll make this very informal so they can see the director of the Institute. Charlotte is also Professor of Nutrition. Now one of the functions, the World Food Institute has a number of functions. One of these functions is this annual lecture on some appropriate to food topic by informed scholar throughout the United States or other countries, however, prior to introducing this evening's speaker, I would like to introduce the person who enables him and possibly tolerate him to make speeches like this round over the country in the world, that's his wife, and this is Helen Johnson. Would you stand up Helen, please? Lets give Helen a hand here. Thank you. Our speaker this evening, Dr. Gale Johnson, that is Helen Johnson's husband, is a native Island who received his both baccalaureate and PhD degrees here at Iowa State University and his master's degree at the University of Wisconsin. Dr. Johnson possesses three sets of professional accomplishments. One of them is in the area university administration, another is in the area of public service, and another set is in the area of scholarship, and he excels in each one of the three of these three sets. As an educational administrator, Dr. Johnson has served the University of Chicago as chairman of the Department of Economics as Dean of the division of social sciences and as vice president and Dean of the faculties and then as provost of the University of Chicago, which is his present position with the university. In public service, Dr. Johnson has served the United States Department of Agriculture, the United States Department of State, Tennessee Valley Authority, the RAND Corporation and several important presidential task forces over the years, including task force on Foreign Economic assistance, task force on food and fiber, committee on Food and Nutrition and the committee on trade negotiations with other nations. His work has taken him into many foreign countries including Brazil and India and Russia. As a scholar, Dr. Johnson is best known to his professional contemporaries through his research and writings including 10 books and monographs and since 1973, more than 40 articles and papers. I'll just mention the titles, a very few of these to give you an idea of the scope and nature of these works. His research and writings have concentrated pretty much on food and agriculture, including these titles. One, \"World Food Problems and Prospects.\" \"Soviet impact on world food grain trade.\" \"U.S agriculture in the world context.\" \"World Agriculture in Disarray\" \"Struggle Against World Hunger\" \"Government and Agricultural Adjustment.\" And, \"The Role of Agriculture in Economic Growth.\" For his scholarly and professional contributions, Dr. Johnson has been honored with the hasties more distinguished service professors at the University of Chicago and being elected by his peers to the president of the American Agricultural Economic Association and he was also elected a fellow honored with a fellow in this same organization. With this record of professional accomplishment, the World Food Institute is proud to present you, Dr. D Gale Johnson, who will speak to us this evening on world food prospects of the 1980s.\r\n\r\n- [Gale] One of the first signs that I saw on campus when getting into the Memorial Union was a note saying that this was dead week. I couldn't figure out whether the intention of having me here was to finish killing it or to live in it up. And perhaps it was one or the other, but we shall see. The lead sentence and an associated press story of November 11th, 1979 was, \"The third world is moving toward a massive food shortage that could result in economic disaster within 20 years.\" A United Nations report says. This gloomy projection, which incidentally was not included in the report, wasn't reporters interpretation of a report presented to the FAO council by the director general of the Food and Agricultural Organization of the United Nations. Fear was expressed that developing country would require ever increasing grain imports, and that the costs of these imports would become a burden that many low-income countries could not bear hence the world food situation deteriorated during the 1970s, half the prices of basic foods increased over time. Are the majority of the world's poor eating less and less as time goes by? If the dire predictions concerning the world's food situation that were so common in 1973, through 1975, had proven to be valid. The answer to each of these questions would be in the affirmative, but such is not the case. The world food situation has not deteriorated during the 1970s. The prices of basic foodstuffs are low by historical standards, and there is no evidence that the world's poor people are eating less well than a decade ago. In fact, on each point, the evidence is to the contrary. The 1970s, as did each of the two prior decades, saw an improvement modest to be sure in per capita food supply for the world and in the low-income countries. In \"World Food Problems and Prospects,\" which was published in early 1975, I concluded, \"I am cautiously optimistic that the food supply situation of the developing countries will continue to improve over the coming decades. If I had as much confidence in the political process in both the industrial and the developing countries as I do in the farmers of the world, I would drop the qualification cautiously.\" For the 1970s, the cautious optimism was justified. Per capita food supplies in the developing countries improved during the decade. However, the improvement was modest and it was far from uniform. In fact, in Africa, per capita food production declined during the decade, but there were substantial differences within Africa that cannot be attributed primarily to natural conditions. The groomy projections of future food stringency and high prices that were made in 1974 and 1975 emphasize three potential adverse developments. These were that higher energy prices would greatly increase the prices of farm inputs, especially fertilizer that increasing the cultivated area was no longer available as a significant means of increasing food production and that the growing use of grain as feed would reduce the food supplies of low-income countries. Let us briefly consider the empirical validity of each of these assumptions. Fertilizer prices. After the formation of OPEC, many feared that the sharp increases in the prices of energy would increase the price of fertilizer so much that use of fertilizer would decline with a significant adverse effect upon food production. Everyone knows that fertilizer production is energy intensive and that the several fold increases in the prices of energy should result in large increases in the price of fertilizer, but what in effect has occurred failed to follow this simplistic scenario. In the United States for example, and the U.S. experience is not different from that of scores of other countries. As 1980 began, the index of the average price paid by farmers for all fertilizers, was lower relative to the price index for all farm production items than in the 1967 base period. The difference was not small as of March 15th, 1980, just a little over a month ago, the price index for all production items was 267, while the price index for fertilizer was 244. This meant that the relative fertilizer prices had declined by 10% between 1967 and early 1980. And compared to the prices that farmers receive for their products, the prices of fertilizer had also declined over this period of time. These relative price relationships prevailed even though fertilizer prices, which are quite volatile, had increased by approximately 30% during 1979. Further increases in fertilizer prices will occur, but even with an increase of a fifth or so, the relative price of fertilizer will have increased very little. How can this behavior fertilizer be explained? Several factors may be noted. Well, energy is an important component of the cost of producing fertilizer, especially nitrogen fertilizer, there have been significant technological progress in fertilizer production during the past 15 years. In fact, the technological changes that became available for the production of nitrogen fertilizer in the 1960s, reduce real costs by about 50%. Another factor is that the price farmers paying for fertilizer include many components in addition to the raw fertilizer. Transportation, mixing, marketing and storage. Finally, a significant part of the world's nitrogen fertilizer output is being produced with low value in natural gas. Either because of long-term price contracts, or the shifting of nitrogen production to areas where natural gas is still being flared. Arable land. Another fear express during the mid 1970s was that the world supply of arable land had been exhausted and that this source of increased food and agricultural production was no longer available. During the past decade, the amount of arable land in the world has increased by a little more than 5%, and by 8% in the developing market economies. Perhaps even more important, was that between 1967 and 77, the irrigated area in the developing market economies increased from 76 million to 95 million hectors, an increase of 25%. In the heavily populated Far East, the absolute increase in irrigated area was almost 13 million hectors and 26%. Feed versus food. During the mid 1970s, livestock was said to be taking more and more food from the rattle they poor since the grain used for feed was increasing faster than grain use for food. It is of course, in the high-income countries, that a large fraction of the total grain supply is fed to livestock rather than being consumed directly. In low-income countries, relatively little grain is fed to livestock and most of the grain is consumed by people. Some went so far as to argue that affluence constituted a threat to the poor. It is true higher per capita incomes resulted in an increase in the per capita demand for and use of grain, primarily, through the increased consumption of meat and milk. But affluence affects not only demand, but also has an effect on production. During the decade before 1973, the high-income countries increased grain production more than consumption. And net grain exports from the developed market economies trebled between 1960, 62, and the first part of 1973 of the 1970s. The centrally planned economies of Eastern Europe did increase grain use more than production during the 1960s and early 1970s. However, if the high-income economies are considered as a group, their net exports to the low-income countries more than doubled during the period. The developments after 1973, indicate that the use of grain depends upon much more than levels of per capita income. After the sharp increase in grain prices in 73, 74, there was a substantial decline in the use of green for feed in the United States. In one year, 74 75, grain used as feed declined by 26% or by 37 million tons, and the amount of grain used as feed has not yet returned to the level of 1972 73 in the U.S. or in all high-income countries taken together. Food supply changes during the 1970s. It is appropriate now to look at what actually happened to per capita food supplies during the 1970s, and especially after 1972. For all low-income countries, except the centrally planned, per capita food production in 1972 was at the 1961 65 level. They declined from the 1970 index of 106. The recovery from the low 1972 level was rapid and by 1975, the index of per capita food production stood at 107. Further progress occurred through 1978 by which time the index had increased to 110. However, preliminary indications indicate a sharp reduction for 1979. The average index for the last four years of the 70s, was some 7% higher than it had been at the beginning of the decade or the decade earlier. Thus, the annual growth in per capita food production for the decade was approximately seven tenths of a percent. This may seem low, but it was higher than the growth rate for the 1960s. Viewed in terms of the performance of agriculture, the growth of food production during the 1970s in the low-income countries, reflects a remarkable performance. For the decade, total food production grew at a 3.2% annually compared to just 2% and for the high-income countries. The modest growth in per capita food production in these countries, was due to the rapid growth of population Imports and food supply. As a group, the low-income countries are net importers of grain. During the 1970s, their grain imports approximately doubled to a level of 48 million tons in 1979, 80, that's projection for this year. This increase in grain imports would provide about 40 calories per day for more than 2 billion people. On the basis of an average per capita intake of 2000 calories, the increase in grain imports added 2% to the available calories. It is not intended to imply that the increase in grain imports made a major contribution to the improvement of food supplies in the low-income countries, but rather to make it clear that the increase in per capita food supplies was equal to or greater than the increase in per capita food production during the 1970s. Increased imports of food are often assumed to be a necessity caused by failure of agricultural production to increase at an appropriate pace. For example, and FAO study recently noted that the developing countries increased their grain imports by more than 50% between 1975 and 1979. And this increase portended both increasing dependence upon high-income countries especially the United States and increasing difficulties of paying for a rising level of food imports. For many developing countries, increasing food imports may be an efficient use of their resources and a response to rising real incomes and not a signal of eminent or eventual disaster. Associated with the notion that significant food imports are evidence of agricultural failure, is the view that most if not all developing countries should be self-sufficient in food. Often lost sight of in the discussion of food self-sufficiency is that the vast majority of developing countries are net exporters of agricultural products. In 1977, latest year for which we have data, the developing market economies had an excess of $17 billion of agricultural exports over agricultural imports. In terms of percentage, the excess of exports over imports was almost 60%. If oil exporters are excluded from the developing countries, the value of agricultural exports was nearly double the value of agricultural imports in 1977 for the other developing market economies. The best use of some nations agricultural resources maybe to produce crops for export and to import a significant fraction of their food. It is interesting to note that while concern has been expressed about the increase in grain and food imports by the developing countries, a little attention has been given to the even larger increase in the value of agricultural exports. Well, the food imports of the non-oil developing countries increased at an annual rate of $1.4 billion between 70 and 77. The value of their agricultural exports increased by 2.9 billion each year. If one is concerned about rising food imports, why isn't not one elated by agricultural exports that increase even more rapidly? Grain prices. Another measure of the supplies of food available to the low-income countries is the price of grain and the international markets. If demand were growing more rapidly than supply, as so many predicted, would occur during the latter half of the 1970s. The real or deflated prices of grain would have increased. I include in my text a table, which gives data on the U S export prices of wheat and corn in 1967 dollars per bushel for the period from 1910 to date. The data reveal a long-term downward trend in the real prices of both products. In fact, prices during the late 1970s having some years been below those that prevailed from 1930 to 34 during the great depression and significantly below the prices of the late 1930s. Prices in recent years are also lower than during the late 1950s and very near to the low market prices of the 1960s. In fact, in terms of dollars of 1967 purchasing power, the export price of a bushel of corn in 1930 to 34, thank you, was a dollar 72. In 1979, it was a dollar 28. This is a decline of a third. These prices indicate that for the grains, the supply to the international market has increased somewhat more than demand during the last seven decades. In fact, compared to the late 1920s, it is an underestimate to say the supply has increased at a somewhat faster rate than demand. The real prices of both wheat and corn have fallen by approximately a third in a half century. During this time, output has grown substantially as has of course demand. It may be noted that what were considered to be the very high grain in 1974, were less than a 10th higher than average prices for 1925, 29 and below the prices that prevailed after World War II. In other words, if we take the peak prices of recent years, they were lower than those that we'd seen in the period immediately in the years from 1945 to 49. Within three years after 1974, the real export price of wheat fell by almost half and while the corn price fell by a third. Clearly the world market for grains was not under strong demand pressure during the late 1970s even though total world trade in grain doubled during the 1970s. Malnutrition. How much is there? I have argued that the availability of food in the low-income countries improved during the 1970s as it had during the previous two decades. And as I shall indicate at the end of the paper, these remarks, I have confidence this 1980s will see further improvement. The extent of malnutrition or hunger in the world has not been commented upon so far this evening. Unfortunately, our knowledge is very poor and limited with respect to the number or percentage of people who are inadequately fed either in the past or today. And when knowledge is scanty, estimates can and do vary widely. Estimates for recent years with the number of people who are malnourished do vary enormously. From the 840 million people estimated by Wright Langer and Slafsky of the World Bank to the 460 million identified for the World Food Conference, the 400 million estimated by the FAO Fourth World Food Survey do a number of much much lower estimates. Thomas Pullman of Cornell has viewed the FAO and World Bank estimates, referred to above, with skepticism. Not because he is certainly are wrong, but because other evidence does point to a significantly lower figures. He cites the results of 101 surveys of children in low-income countries that used weights to estimate the extent of malnutrition. Severe protein energy malnutrition, was defined as a weight, less than 60% of a standard and moderate malnutrition, as a weight in the 60 to 80% range. In other words, moderate malnutrition said to exist when a child or a young person weighed from 60 to 80% as much as the standard level. Using these criteria, the studies showed that 2.3% of the children's suffered from severe malnutrition and 19% from moderate malnutrition. It may seem to many of you, and I think rightly so that the assumption that moderate malnutrition means only, it means a weight that 60 to 80% of what you would normally expect or what would be the average for that particular age group that that is maybe considered to be a very severe standard for that. However the human body appears to, as a true of other animals, appears to have a remarkable capacity to adjust to the circumstances in which they find themselves including the nature and amount of their food supply. If the criteria of moderate malnutrition that was used here, of 60 to 80% of the body weight that was standard for that age and height. If that had been applied to Japan in 1950, Japanese girls would have been considered to have been moderately malnourished because Japanese girls at the age of 12 in 1950, weighed, less than 80% as much as Japanese girls age 12 weighed in 1975 yet I don't think anyone would have argued that the Japanese people as the time of World War II, gave evidence in terms of their capacity to carry out the tasks which they had of having been malnourished. In other words, there has been a remarkable change in the Japanese diet, obviously, since World War II, and this has resulted in an increase in weight of youngsters, the young teenagers who have a roughly 20% to 25% and an increase in height. It's generally agreed that if there is malnutrition in a population, the two groups that are most adversely affected are children and pregnant and lactating women. Pullman assume that either 10% or 50% of children below five years of age and all pregnant and lactating women estimated to be approximately double the annual number of births suffered from malnutrition. The resulting estimate of the vulnerable people at risk in all low-income countries including China, was thus 62 million for the lower estimate and 310 million for the higher estimate. The 50% assumption seems extreme, yet it gives figures that are significantly less than the estimates referred to above. Even though Pullman included China with a quarter of the world's population in his estimates and the others did not. Eric Eckholm and Frank Record in a Worldwatch paper, state, \"Available population studies show that's the severely malnourished those close to starvation, probably number in the tens rather than the hundreds of millions while a far cry from the stereotypical notion that, 'Half the world is starving to death' this number is still unconscionably large.\" I believe that there is substantial evidence that support the lower estimates of severely malnourished and the view that the incidence of malnourishment is declining. The very striking increase in life expectancy in the low-income countries since 1950 is worthy of note. For all low-income countries, life expectancy at birth was from 35 to 40 years in 1950 an increased to 52 years in 1975. Much of the increase in life expectancy has occurred due to a decline in infant mortality, but not all. As Shults and Ram have shown, life expectancy in the adult years has increased in India to a marked degree in the past three decades. For example, between 1951 and 1971, male life expectancy at age 21 at age 20 increased by over eight years. At age 40 by more than five years and at age 60 by almost four years. Life expectancy at birth increased by 14 years. In 1971, the average life expectancy for a male at age 20 in India was 41. For the same sex and age in the United States in 1921, 1920, life expectancy was 46. Only five years more than the life expectancy in India at that age today. The increase in life expectancy in India whether measured from birth or some other age has occurred, even there is by implication, widespread malnutrition in India, according to the estimates made by Wright Linger and Slafsky or by the Fourth World Food Survey or which could be inferred from the estimate that per capita caloric intake has fallen some eight to 12% below requirements in recent years. It is not however, it's not my intention to engage in the battle of numbers or to claim that the world's poor people do not face serious problems in obtaining adequate amounts of nutritious food. Instead, my objective is to try to measure recent progress or changes in per capita food availability and to assess the prospects for improvement in the years ahead. Nor in emphasizing food production and food prices and costs as I have, am I denying that the primary reason for inadequate nutrition is poverty. In the lower income countries of the world, poor people do not have inadequate diets because food is not available for purchase. The reason for inadequate diets is insufficient income to buy enough food. But I hasten to add that the majority, perhaps as many as three fourths of the four people in the low-income countries in the world live in rural areas, thus for many of these people, there is a close and intimate relationship between income, food and agricultural production. That's while the primary source of food inadequacy is low income and important source of low incomes for hundreds of millions is a limited productivity of agriculture. In this situation, many of the measures that will result in increased productivity in agriculture will also increase incomes and the adequacy of diets. Two surprises. Well, I believe that the \"World Food Problems and Prospects\" that I referred to earlier, has stood the test of time very well in candor, I must admit that there had been two significant surprises that affected world food supplies and prices during the 1970s, and which may have an influence in the years ahead. The two surprises where the rapid growth of grain imports by the centrally planned economies and the sharp decline in birth rates in many low-income countries. A primary concern expressed at the World Food Conference for example, was the ability of the major grain exporters to provide the added grain exports to meet the import demands of the developing market economies. Between 1970 and 1979 80, world grain exports increased by 82 million tons. Approximately 60% of the increase was accounted for by increased imports of the centrally planned economies, and that's my euphemism for what Norma thought it was a communist economies. The developing market economies accounted for only 20% of the increase in world grain imports and approximately half of that increase occurred in the OPEC countries. Grain imports by South Asia which includes a very large fraction of the world's poorest people actually declined during the 1970s and the increased imports by the developing countries went mainly to middle-income countries including the rapidly growing middle-income country of of East Asia; Korea, Taiwan, Singapore, Hong Kong. Without the large increase in grain imports by the centrally planned economies, international grain prices would have been much lower during the late 1970s then was in fact the case. World grain trade doubled during the 70s. Without the large increase in imports by the central planned economies, the increase in world grain trade would certainly not have exceeded one half, and of the increase in the net grain imports by the centrally planned economy, approximately half was by the Soviet Union, a quarter by other Eastern European countries and a quarter by China. The growth of grain imports by the Soviet Union and Eastern Europe, has been due to demand for livestock feed that the demand for livestock feed growing at a more rapid rate than couldn't be supplied from domestic sources given the agricultural policies that were followed. Prior to the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan, there's suspension of grain sales and excessive 8 million tons by the United States. It was reasonable to assume that Soviet Union would continue to be a major and quite possibly increasing factor in the world grain market. In early 1980, it is not clear how the Soviet will react to the efforts by the United States to restrict access to grain supplies. Unless there is an easing of the tensions between the two nations, the Soviets will be faced with some very difficult choices. A substantial increase in the average level of grain reserves, long-term commitments for grain imports from suppliers other than the United States and a reduction in meat production to levels consistent with potential supplies of feed. The United States has served as a primary source of enormous quantities of grain for the Soviet Union during the 1970s. No other nation in the world nor all other nations taken together can serve this rule. The other surprise was the significant decline in birth rates in many developing countries. Declines that have become apparent only in recent years, but which must have started in a number of cases by the mid 1960s. Countries with populations in excess of 2 billion, in other words, countries with populations equal to half of the world's total population, had estimated decline of birth rates of 15% or more between 1960 and 1977. A number of countries had declines of 35% or more. Colombia, 35, South Korea, 49, Tunisia, 37, Costa Rica, 40, Chile, 40, Taiwan, 48, Hong Kong, 46. Trinidad and Tobago, 40, Singapore, 50, and China, 39. The declines in population growth rates have so far been very small. This is the population growth rates not the birth rates, have been very small and will be small for the next decade. Death rates are declining rapidly too. In Columbia for example, the crude death rate declined more in percentage terms between 1960 and 77 then did the crude birth rate. 43% for the death rate and 35% for the birth rate. However, the absolute decline in birth rate per thousand of population was substantially greater than the absolute decline of the death rate. 16 compared to six. Consequently, the rate of population growth did decline from 3% annually for the 60s to about 2.1% for the 70s. I do not want to give too much emphasis to the significance of the population growth rate to the adequacy of the per capita food supplies, but I believe that a slowing of the population growth rate is important for at least two reasons. One is, that a declined in birth rates results in a transition benefit. The percentage of the population in the labor force growth and per capita output of both food and all other goods are increased as a result. During the period of a decline in birth rates and population growth, there will be an extended time when food output will not be affected at all or by very little. Consequently, per capita food availability will increase. And if there previously had been sufficient under nutrition to it had an adverse effect upon productivity, a positive productivity effect would occur. This is a short run benefit, but one that should not be ignored. The second is that the decline in birth rates indicates to me that families now have more control over fertility than they had before and can more mirror and more nearly fulfill their aspiration than previously. Food security, poverty and malnutrition. As noted above, the primary reason for inadequate food consumption and the existence of malnutrition in the low-income countries is poverty rather than any lack of food availability. In the world as it is organized today, barring war and civil insurrection, food is available almost anywhere in the world if there is the income to purchase it. Such was not always the case. It has only been in the past two centuries that famine was not a potential danger facing the majority, not just some, but the majority of the world's population. Less than a century ago, in fact, in the 20th century, famine was a threat to life for millions, tens of millions in most of Asia and in Russia. The 20th century has brought a revolutionary change in world food security. Change I think has largely gone unnoticed. Improvements in communication and transportation have brought all but a tiny minority of the world's population into a world food community. Except for actions taken by governments, the world food supply is now available to virtually anyone anywhere in the world who has the money to pay for food at prices that approached the lowest in which primary food products have been available during the past century. The statement that food is now available to anyone, \"Who has the money to pay for it\" is not intended or is not a cynical description of the alternatives available to the poor people of world. It is a statement that realistically applies to a large and thankfully increasing fraction of the world's population, including now I would say the majority of the poorest people of the world. India's per capita income is among the lowest in the world yet at the beginning of this decade, 1970 71, large-scale consumption study indicated that more than half of the rural families in the third decile, this is the group, 10% from the third from the bottom. In the income distribution had daily per capita caloric consumption in excessive of a reasonable level, 2300 calories per day. In other words, at this income level, more than half Indian rural families had an adequate supply of calories. For urban families, half of the families at the 40th percentile in the income distribution consumed adequate calories. But even at lower levels of per capita expenditure for all goods and services, there were some families at each expenditure level that had adequate levels of calorie consumption. It was also true that even at the highest expenditure levels some families can food consume few enough calories to have been said to be calorie deficient, to have had calorie deficient diets, but the same result is obtained from consumption studies in the United States. CA Shaw Bombay University, provides strong evidence that even at very low-income levels in India that tastes had a significant role in determining the cost per calorie of food. He found, for example that families in Kerala, spend about 80% more per calorie than would have been required for a nutritionally adequate diet. Shaw study indicated also that at each per capita expenditure level the families with the caloric intake below what was considered an acceptable level, generally obtain a smaller fraction of their calories from grains and pulses, the cheapest sources of calories, than did the families at the same income levels with caloric intakes in excess of the standards. There are at least two important hypotheses that might explain these findings. One is that the calorie standard used is inappropriate in the sense that individual differences in requirements for an active life are so variable that the use of a given standard for all consumers is inappropriate. The other is that poor families are miss allocating their food expenditures. The latter hypothesis seems to me to be without supporting evidence other data from the India as well as other countries including this country, show quite clearly that within the category at the lowest cost sources of calories, the grains, low-income families spent significantly less per kilogram of grain than did the higher income families. And this was true for both the urban and the rural families. Unfortunately, the attention given to food problems during the mid 1970s has resulted in almost no improvement in the factual basis for improving our understanding of malnutrition is causes an extent. True, we know that most malnutrition is associated with low incomes, but we also know that some very poor people are adequate fed, while others with equal or higher incomes have less than adequate diets. If we better understood why such differences exist in consumption patterns and what health effects if any such differences have we would be better able to assist those who need it the most. Prospects for the 1980s. Per capita food production in the world and in the developing countries increased during the 1970s. The improvement in the diet of developing countries was modest overall and in some areas, particularly Africa, per capita food production declined. But the increase achieved in per capita food production during the 1970s represented a continuation of past trends. There is no significant reason to expect that the 1980s will show less improvement in per capita food supplies for the low-income countries than each of the last two decades. The potential for a greater improvement clearly exists though a cautious and realistic view is that during the 1980s as during the previous two decades, of rice and wheat as miracle varieties. The use of the term green revolution also held off the hope yes of maybe, yes, revolutionary changes in food supplies. The newer varieties did represent remarkable achievement, but it was unfortunate that they were tagged as revolutionary. One thing that must be learned about research in agriculture, a single revolution is never enough. What is required is a stream of revolutions? Each perhaps with rather modest effect, but with significant cumulative influence. The new high yielding varieties did not have the effects on output that were expected by their most enthusiastic supporters for several reasons. First, the new varieties were well adapted in only part of the areas producing rice and wheat. Second, the yield differential between the new and the old varieties were significantly smaller under farm than experimental conditions, but this is true for practically every crop innovation you can think of. And third farmers had to learn how to use the new varieties effectively. Specifically in the case of the new rice varieties, they could be used only under your irrigation that permitted effective control of water depths. The new varieties are short with the stiff straw characteristics required for the plants to effectively utilize large doses fertilizer. Many of the irrigation systems in South and Southeast Asia do not provide effective control of water levels. On the other hand, since most wheat irrigation is done the tube wells in South Asia. There has been much wider adoption of the new varieties of wheat than of rice, and in India in 1976 77, 35% of all rice was its own in the new varieties, while more than 70% of the wheat area was sewn with the new varieties. The doubling of wheat yields and the trembling of wheat output in India wouldn't have been impossible without the new varieties. In fact, those of us who look at the new high yielding varieties in India, should take a look at what was rated the first of the high yielding varieties and world namely hybrid corn, and note how long it took. I was going to say to realize the potential. I don't mean that because we have not yet realized the potential of hybrid corn. How long it has taken to go from average yields of roughly bushel an acre to average yields in the country of 100 bushels. It took 40 years, 45 years and much of this increase came rather slowly. Corn yields did not double with the use complete adoption of hybrid corn until almost a quarter century after the hybrid corn was first commercially available here in the Midwest. The rate of adoption and development of the new high yielding varieties of wheat and rice has come at least as rapidly, if not more so, than that of hybrid corn in the United States The 1970 saw repeated references to the possibility if not the probability that the growth of grain yields was declining in the world. The feeling of unease was buttressed for many by grain yields in the United States, especially corn in 1975 and 1976. And to a lesser degree in 1977 that were below prior peak yield levels. Some concluded the grain yields in the United States the growth of grain yield was slowing down and perhaps may have reached their peak levels. I think the experience in last year and in 1978 which essentially put corn yields back at or perhaps a slightly above the long-term trend in the case that is a real possibility the rather low yields of the mid 1970s were a function of weather variables and the enormous corn crop that was produced in 1979 in this country, with some almost a billion bushels above the trend level, not quite that, but almost, and thus there could be a substantial decrease from that level for 1980 and still be at the trend level. In other words, one of our problems, I think in measuring the progress of agriculture, both in this country and elsewhere has been the fact that at the national level, we tend to ignore the impact of weather variables. And of course, one of the important figures of persons who have given a great deal of emphasis to the role of weather in determining agricultural output in this and other countries is here with us this evening, Louis Thompson Agricultural research. During the last two decades there has been a major growth in the expenditures on agricultural research on the problems of increasing farm production in the low-income countries. In the 15 years between 1959 and 1974, agricultural research in the major developing regions increased from $225 million to almost a billion dollars per year, and this is in terms of cost of dollars. This increase in expenditures occurred both in the international agriculture research centers and in the research institutions of the low-income countries. As a share of an increasing world expenditure on agricultural research, the expenditures in the three low-income regions increased from 17% in 1959 to 25% in 1974. Since there is a lag of five to 10 years between research investment and actual application on farms, most of the effects of the increased investment made after 1973 still have not been felt. Earlier it was noted that during the past decade there has been a substantial increase in irrigated area in the low-income countries. Much of the increase in irrigation has occurred in the densely populated regions of the world, principally Asia. Current rates of investment in irrigation in South and Southeast Asia are high by historical standards. Irrigation, whether the new projects or improvements of existing systems is capital intensive. This is an investment area where the availability of foreign capital may be important in improving per capita food availability. It reported the trilateral commission indicated that we would require more than $50 billion, 1975 purchasing power, of investment to provide the irrigation expansion and improvements in South and Southeast Asia required for the doubling of rice production by the early 1990s. Approximately a third of the required investment could come from sources within the region, but the remaining two thirds would need to be supplied from the outside. There are two other factors that will have a positive effect on per capita food consumption by the end of the 1980s. One of these is the continued growth of per capita income in the developing countries. The World Bank projects at the annual growth of per capita gross domestic product of the low-income countries, those were the per capita income less than $300. During the eighties at a roughly 2.7% per capita per year. The middle-income developing countries are projected to have a significantly higher growth rate of almost three and a half percent. An income growth rate of 2.7% annually means a 30% growth in income level in a decade. Such a growth of income would on the average call forth at least a 15% increase per capita in real food expenditures for the low-income persons. If this growth in demand for is reasonably well distributed among all segments of the population, the growth will go a substantial distance toward reducing both severe and moderate malnutrition in the low-income countries. The other factor positive factor is the potential decline in the rate of population growth in many low-income countries. As noted earlier, the decline in the rate of population growth will not significantly alleviate the world's food deficiencies during the 1980s, but a slowing down of population growth has to affect some per capita food supply as noted earlier. A larger fraction of the population is in the working ages during the transition period, to a lower rate of population growth and there are fewer people eating from a given food supply after some period of time. These affects will not be large during most of the 1980s, though they may be of modest significance. The difference in decade between a 2.3 and a 2.1% annual growth rate is a little less than 2% for the total population. The two growth rates used are those for India for the 1960s in for 1970 to 77. If there is a further decline in the population growth rate for the 1980s to 1.9%, a further 2% lower total population would result by 1990. These differences appear to be small, but compared to annual per capita increases in food consumption of one half to six tenths of a percent, the impacts on per capita food consumption of a 2% difference in population size would increase the growth of consumption by a third. It is by small and additive improvements that the nutrition of the world's poorest people will be improved during the rest of the century. Concluding comments. It is common in the discussion of the potential growth of food production to emphasize the restraints imposed by nature. The finite limits of our natural resources and the vagaries of climate. It is easy to paint a gloomy picture of the future of the world. If you accept the view that our supplies of fossil energy will be exhausted in some finite period, that erosion will destroy a large part of the land use for crops and the future scientific discoveries increasingly will be less relevant to increasing food production. But if there is an enemy that will prevent the nutrition improving the nutrition of the world's poor people, it is man and not nature. Man not nature will be the primary factor in determining the rate of growth of food production in the rest of the century. Nature is often niggardly and at times terribly cruel, but we now know enough about what is required to expand food production, that we should no longer blame our failures upon nature. When I say that, man not nature, will impose the greatest barriers to the potential for the expansion of food production. I'm not referring to the consequences of the acts of farmers, traders, processors or suppliers, but to man as he functions in the political process. If policies are adopted that permit appropriate incentives for farmers, provide them to his access to supplies at reasonable prices and permit farmers to sell at the best possible prices, production growth will be favored. And if policies are followed that encourage research and problems of agriculture of the low-income countries, all will gain. The mistakes of the past have been costly. One can hope that the next decade or this decade we'll see fewer such mistakes. Thank you very much.\r\n\r\n- [Announcer] Thank you Gale.","format":"text/plain"},"target":"https://iastate.aviaryplatform.com/collections/1150/collection_resources/45495/file/118455#t=0.0,3640.34612"}]}]}]}